Altona by-election live

Votes Swing 2PP Swing
NAIN 468
Independent 1.6%
MUNDY 500
Independent 1.7%
WINDISCH 513
Socialist Alliance 1.7%
ROSE 9577 8.3% 41.5% 11.7%
Liberal 31.9%
STRANGWARD 3105 1.9%
Greens 10.3%
RIXON 114
Independent 0.4%
SHAW 505
Independent 1.7%
HENNESSY 13558 -15.9% 58.5% -11.7%
Labor 45.2%
.
62.9% counted 14 booths out of 14

9.28pm. Results and swings by suburb. Note the increase in the number of voters and size of the Liberal swing in Point Cook.

ALP LIB GRN 2PP TURNOUT
Altona 42.5%
-16.5% 		37.0%
12.1% 		13.1%
2.5% 		56.5%
-13.4% 		4935
-3.2%
Altona Meadows 55.1%
-11.6% 		27.4%
10.2% 		10.6%
2.4% 		66.2%
-10.3% 		7723
-2.4%
Hoppers Crossing 48.7%
-11.0% 		35.6%
9.2% 		9.0%
1.8% 		57.7%
-10.4% 		5664
-5.9%
Laverton 53.2%
-12.9% 		27.6%
9.9% 		12.7%
4.3% 		65.1%
-11.1% 		2193
-11.2%
Point Cook 40.0%
-16.0% 		40.7%
11.5% 		10.4%
2.2% 		50.4%
-15.0% 		4873
12.2%
Seabrook 45.1%
-14.2% 		35.0%
9.2% 		11.8%
3.5% 		56.6%
-12.3% 		2952
-19.8%
TOTAL 47.8%
-13.5% 		33.8%
10.5% 		11.0%
2.5% 		59.0%
-12.0% 		28340
-4.0%

9.05pm. Final notional two-party result in. I make the swing 11.7 per cent.

8.43pm. My Labor source has revised that final figure to 12.0 per cent.

8.33pm. Labor sources inform the final two-party swing for the evening is 11.4 per cent.

8.31pm. Altona West is the last booth to report primaries and it’s swung heavily, boosting the overall result. Still some notional two-party figures to come.

8.20pm. Notional preference counts from three big booths have gone relatively well for Labor, cutting 0.9 per cent from my projected swing.

8.16pm. Was wrong about Seaford Primary being a small booth: 2709 votes, evidently being a big growth area. Result consistent with overall trend.

8.10pm. 16 per cent swing at Boardwalk boosts overall swing.

8.00pm. Outstanding booths are big Altona West, medium-sized Boardwalk and (probably) small Seabrook Primary.

7.46pm. Double-digit primary vote swing to the Liberals at Jamieson Way.

7.37pm. Big Altona Bay and Derrimut booths swing very slightly below average, but the swing is still very likely to finish in double figures on 2PP and well over on the primary vote.

7.33pm. Large Laverton North booth almost exactly in line with existing result.

7.29pm. Altona and Altona Meadows reporting, respectively with heavier and lighter than average swings, collectively making no difference to the existing 2pp swing.

7.26pm. Antony Green confirms Bellbridge is Central Park, but I had misassigned the Laverton booth, not that it mattered much. Lots of differences in booth locations compared with 2006.

7.24. Another relatively mild result at the Laverton booth takes some more edge off the 2PP swing. Still over double figures, but it remains possible it might fall back under.

7.22pm. Not entirely sure where the just-reported Bellbridge booth is – I’m guessing Central Park Community centre for the time being. If I’m right, it’s a relatively mild but still heavy swing against Labor.

7.16pm. I’m informed Altona Meadows CC was a different booth from the one I thought – this means the 2PP swing is about 2 per cent lower than my projection.

7.14pm. Now I have actual preference figures from two booths, the swing looks even bigger – in other words, my preference estimates were flattering Labor.

7.09pm. Modest rise for the Greens so far by by-election standards; still only small booths in, but it looks like the cream of the swing is going to the Liberals.

7.07pm. New Point Cook North booth maintains the existing picture, perhaps despite expectations the new areas would be unusually strong for the Liberals.

7.04pm. Swing only slightly lower at the small Seabrook booth. Labor projected to win, but after a very uncomfortable swing.

7.01pm. Clearly Antony Green has Altona Meadows CC corresponding with the Altona Bay result from 2006, which had also been my lucky guess. So we look to have a swing against Labor of nearly 17 per cent on our first booth. Preference distributions are just estimates at this stage.

7pm. A booth called Altona Meadows CC has reported: not sure which of two Altona Meadows booths it corresponds with, but whichever it is there’s a huge swing against Labor well into the teens.

6pm. Welcome to live coverage of the count for Victoria’s Altona by-election, for which polls have just closed. The table above will show raw results for the primary vote, along with primary vote swings and two-party preferred projections based on booth matching.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

203 comments on “Altona by-election live”

Comments Page 3 of 5
1 2 3 4 5

  1. [Winners are grinners.]

    So if the safest Labor seat in parliament suffered a 24% 2PP swing and was retained on 0.1%, you’d be celebrating?

    Jesus. I’m glad you’re not a Labor strategist.

  3. #98

    You’ll have to ask Antony or Adam. As a rough guess I’d say 5-6%…I remember it was about 3% in Melbourne but 7-8% in rural Victoria.

  4. [Labor held the seat, the Libs got a nice swing. What did the Greens get? A big “no thanks” from working-class voters, as usual. Go back to Fitzroy.]

    You’re continuing the extreme insecure tactics of talking about an opponent (not your main one, one that got a very small result at the previous election) rather than yourself. If you can’t talk about yourself and you have to talk about others in an attempt to win the day, you’ve already lost.

    12% 2PP swing.

    Deal with it.

  8. [It’s a bi election. I already have.]

    Those poor fools that said the same thing about the 1975 Bass by-election, or the recent NSW elections…

    Those who can’t read the writing on the wall always end up finishing last. Sucker.

  9. [Be honest, Bob, a 2% gain for the Greens given a 16% primary swing against Labor is ordinary.]

    See my #7 post. I already said I didn’t expect the Greens to do much due to the demographics of the area.

  10. #109

    I know it’s not a Green area, but given the size of Labor’s swing and the less-than-inspiring Liberal leadership, you’d expect better than 2%.

    I dunno, maybe Ted is a bigger vote-puller than we give him credit for…..but I personally would have expected better than that from the Greens.

  11. bob,

    !Piss weak cop out. Every one knows you’re bitterly disappointed. Otherwise, why the invective.

    Face up to the fact, your Greens got their arse kicked and have been dumped back to their usual role of Labor preference collectors. Love it or vote Labor.

    So many promises, so little result.

  12. Why is it that the ALP holds a safe seat. The Liberal Party gets a 12% swing and yet the Greenies are flocking to bludger saying that they will be winning State Governments by 2030.

    In the words of an infamous politician….Please Explain???

  13. [I dunno, maybe Ted is a bigger vote-puller than we give him credit for…..but I personally would have expected better than that from the Greens.]
    There would be a healthy by – election protest vote in that I would think. It’s easy to vote for the other side when you know the government won’t change. Still a big swing though.

  14. [Every one knows you’re bitterly disappointed.]

    What part of see my post at #7 don’t you understand?

    12% 2PP swing against incumbent Labor = MASSIVE FAIL

    Deal with it.

    🙂

  15. bob1234 – if you want Labor to be more progressive you need to provide some evidence or argument that this would have appealed to working class people who are disatisfied when maybe 85% of the dis-satisfied ones turned to the Libs. Just criticising Labor supporters doesn’t show much nouse.

  16. [if you want Labor to be more progressive you need to provide some evidence or argument that this would have appealed to working class people]

    I can provide evidence that the current methods aren’t working – 12% 2PP swing.

    MASSIVE FAIL.

    🙂

  18. bob,

    Count the seats tomorrow. Labor wins. Greens and all other contenders lose.

    It’s a simple concept.

    Everything else is bumpff.

  21. Of the 15.9% of primary votes which the ALP lost only 1.9% turned up in the Greens column. That’s a poor outcome for the Greens. But a by-election is a poor indicator of anything. For example, the by-election loss of Ryan Federal electorate by the Libs after Moore resigned was reversed at the next general election.

  23. It is a bad result for Labor, but the Greens vote appears to have plateaued in the last few years. They will not displace a major at this rate.

  27. Just clicked on for some fun reading and thought I should clear something up. Post 12 you are right, Hennessey was a parachuted head office imposed candidate. If the candidate the local branches ENDORSED had run, (and she was willing too) the swing would not have been anywhere near as high. None of the candidates were real locals and she (Grigorovitch) is a very popular, born and bred in Altona, local councillor who won her council seat on primaries alone, which had never been done there before. She is popular because she has always been very involved in the local communuity and is well kniwn as the “go to – can do” girl. Hennessy was lucky this young councillor chose not to kick up a fuss and “advertise” that she was passed over even though she won the majority local ALP branch vote and should have been sent onto the Central Panel.

  28. Glen said “…they will be winning State Governments by 2030.”

    But did he mean the Greens, or the Liberals? 🙂

    But seriously – wherever there’s proportional representation, the Greens already decide who governs (Tas, ACT – probably next Fed senate)

    Bad swing against Brumby. That’s VIC gone to Libs if it holds. He better hope there’s a big by-election factor there. Which there will be, of course – but how much??

  29. What a tastey little appetiser for the State election!!!!!

    A glimpse of how both majors will run their campaigns, and a swing thats large enough to accomodate a local/bi-election component with enough left over to make the state election seem a 50/50 proposition for the ALP.

  30. 93

    3 of the 11 most marginal ALP seats in Victoria are marginal to the Greens. The ALP could loose their effective majority (get less than 44) with the Libs gaining only 9 seats if the Greens gained the three that the are in with real chances in.

  32. This result almost shows why Labor takes the western suburbs for granted. I have 3 workmates who live in the seat (Sanctuary Lakes, Seabrook and Altona Meadows) and they all tell me that the infrastructure is rubbish, trying to get onto the Westgate of a morning is impossible (Point Cook Rd queues back for miles), the seat is serviced by the Werribee line which is probably Melbourne’s most unreliable, evidently if you get on after Hoppers Crossing (2nd stop) in peak hour you don’t get a seat , and their previous member was responsible for public transport but couldn’t be bothered doing anything about it, yet almost half of the electorate still voted for them. I sincerely hope this result is repeated in November so this bunch of corrupt incompetents and their unelected premier can be done away with!

  33. As for the Green vote, I have never understood disenchanted Labor voters voting for the Greens – their vote is gonna end up with Labor anyway. Although a 2% swing to the Greens in Melbourne will deliver Greens the seat and ditch Bronwyn Pike which is not a bad thing!

  34. Posts 16 & 18 you are completely wrong. Hennessy did not win the local vote. She lost to the young Labor councillor who was endorsed by the local branches. Movers and shakers pulled every trick in the book they could to exert pressure and destroy her local branch vote (Read Vexnews.com :Hennessy stability deal holds) but all they could get was an extra 8 votes on top of the 12 Hennessy was always going to get. The locals who live in Altona Electorate and remain financial members to have the right to participate in the preselection vote because they think they are in a democratic society were just an annoying flea on the back of the ALP decision makers who closed ranks to parachute Hennessy in. Jobs were threatened, other positions and jobs were promised – all to sway the local members vote. Even though some were swayed, Grigorovitch still won the local vote with 60% majority. SL still met after Grigorovitch won the local vote and advised her they would endorse only Hennessy to go before the Central Panel (Why you may ask – because they were answering to higher masters who owed Hennessy and were sh*t scared Grigorovitch in fact did have the numbers to gain preselection if she went before the Central panel). Hennessy may be instant front bench material but Grigorovitch is incredible Labor people material and will be a great asset to us if we can keep her.
    How do I know all this? Sadly because I was one of the ‘insiders’ who just had to watch all this play out, shut up and say nothing!

  35. This is not a good result for the Labor Party in Victoria. Easy to suggest that it was a great win, sorry the next election in Victoria will be close. Labor is in for a fight. And the campaign if you not campaign on your record than something has gone wrong.. Negative campaigns about Bailleau are not the way to win elections.
    Also Brumby is not liked he does same aura as Bracks, in saying that though i do not think Bailleau is liked much either….

  36. What you will get if the Greens hold the balance of power is the Labor Party and the Libs acting like one party, and continuing to introduce big business friendly policies.

  38. Hello All.

    First MDNConnell – Yes this takes Altona back to its later 1990s margin, the big difference is the current Altona pushes north towards the western side of Sunshine making it a safer ALP seat.

    This result confirms my view that there will be a swing against the ALP at the next poll but just as we saw in 1996 when Kennett suffered large swings they will happen in the wrong places for the Liberals.

    My view is Altona on paper is a 60-40 seat not a 70-30 one.

    The Greens have nothing to crow about.

  39. This is not a good result for the Labor Party in Victoria. Easy to suggest that it was a great win, sorry the next election in Victoria will be close. Labor is in for a fight. And the campaign if you cannot campaign on your record than something has gone wrong.. Negative campaigns about Bailleau are not the way to win elections. Also Brumby is not liked he does not have the same aura as Bracks, in saying that though i do not think Bailleau is liked much either. The party thinks that it is doing well but realistically that kind of arrogance will not work. It is in strife and for Brumby to believe otherwise he is kidding himself.
    To be pushed to preferences for the first time in its history says it all.

  40. The Greens are not getting the message across frankly. They continue to be seen as the environmental party if they wish to be a broader based group than they must start acting like it. Nonetheless Altona is not an area in which the Greens should do well as it is fairly working class.

  41. There are several issues that the Liberals could hurt the ALP on but i just don’e see the Liberals nailing the ALP on those issues.

    The Givernment does have a budget and the economy is picking up so if the Government can make headway on its problems then it should be okay but the next election could go either way but my money is still on the ALP due to it having a weak opposition and a budget to deliver

  42. GG 39

    That is the problem for labor, the 12% that left Labor was not a protest vote, if it was a protest vote it would have gone to the Greens, it is actual vote that went from Labor to the Liberals, which is much more worrying for the ALP then if the protest vote went to the green then back to Labor

  44. Psefo at 66
    The media wash up will be violently anti-Labor as always. Both the Murdoch press from the right and The Age from the left will pronounce Brumby to be dead and buried. That also suits Labor just fine.

    Yeah the press will likely savage Labor, that is because they lost 15% of their primary vote. Only an idiot would say, ALP went great last night in only suffering a lost of 1 in 6 voters in fact 1/3 people who voted for the ALP no longer voted for them. Party official is estatic

  45. By my calcs only a 4% swing will deliver Brunswick, Burwood, Forest Hill, Frankston, Gembrook, Melbourne, Mitcham, Mordialloc, Mt Waverley, Prahran, Ripon and South Barwon, which will give equal seats, although Melbourne and possibly Brunswick would more likely go to the Greens. 6% means Labor loses Bendigo East, 7% gives Liberal Ballarat East, Ballarat West, Bentleigh, Carrum, Eltham, Monbulk, Richmond and Seymour, granted Richmond probably to Greens, but that’s more than enough. Prahran’s voting in the Higgins by-election was interesting, swings to Liberal in most of the booths located in Prahran and Windsor, Labor’s perceived inaction in fire prevention backburning may hurt them in Gembrook, Monbulk and Eltham (especially with the local dissatisfaction with Nillumbik Council’s tree clearing policy), and I doubt that any country seat will be held by Labor, they’re getting more Melbourne-centric than Jeff ever was

  47. 145

    Melbourne, Brunswick and Richmond are not going to be won by the Libs as they come third by a long way. They are the close ALP versus Greens seats.

  49. Dovif the media are rarely “violently anti-Labor”. Both papers have given Rudd a massive honeymoon, Vic Labor have been sneaking frightening bits of legislation through which have barely rated a mention, and if there had been 3 interest rate rises in a row under Howard you would never have heard the end of it. I think the fact that The Age are even starting to turn on Rudd and Brumby now means that the spin is not working any more – we want them to do something, anything!

  50. Great articles Peter – Brumby really does live in Fairyland. Labor have already revealed their strategy for November is to concentrate on “Ted the toff from Toorak” – which obviously means they’ve realised we’re wise to the fact they’ve done bugger all for 11 years and we’re all rather sick of it. Funny how Brumby is all of a sudden expressing concern over Myki now it’s coming up to an election, he’s defended it to the hilt up until Kosky left

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