Altona by-election live

Votes Swing 2PP Swing
NAIN 468
Independent 1.6%
MUNDY 500
Independent 1.7%
WINDISCH 513
Socialist Alliance 1.7%
ROSE 9577 8.3% 41.5% 11.7%
Liberal 31.9%
STRANGWARD 3105 1.9%
Greens 10.3%
RIXON 114
Independent 0.4%
SHAW 505
Independent 1.7%
HENNESSY 13558 -15.9% 58.5% -11.7%
Labor 45.2%
.
62.9% counted 14 booths out of 14

9.28pm. Results and swings by suburb. Note the increase in the number of voters and size of the Liberal swing in Point Cook.

ALP LIB GRN 2PP TURNOUT
Altona 42.5%
-16.5% 		37.0%
12.1% 		13.1%
2.5% 		56.5%
-13.4% 		4935
-3.2%
Altona Meadows 55.1%
-11.6% 		27.4%
10.2% 		10.6%
2.4% 		66.2%
-10.3% 		7723
-2.4%
Hoppers Crossing 48.7%
-11.0% 		35.6%
9.2% 		9.0%
1.8% 		57.7%
-10.4% 		5664
-5.9%
Laverton 53.2%
-12.9% 		27.6%
9.9% 		12.7%
4.3% 		65.1%
-11.1% 		2193
-11.2%
Point Cook 40.0%
-16.0% 		40.7%
11.5% 		10.4%
2.2% 		50.4%
-15.0% 		4873
12.2%
Seabrook 45.1%
-14.2% 		35.0%
9.2% 		11.8%
3.5% 		56.6%
-12.3% 		2952
-19.8%
TOTAL 47.8%
-13.5% 		33.8%
10.5% 		11.0%
2.5% 		59.0%
-12.0% 		28340
-4.0%

9.05pm. Final notional two-party result in. I make the swing 11.7 per cent.

8.43pm. My Labor source has revised that final figure to 12.0 per cent.

8.33pm. Labor sources inform the final two-party swing for the evening is 11.4 per cent.

8.31pm. Altona West is the last booth to report primaries and it’s swung heavily, boosting the overall result. Still some notional two-party figures to come.

8.20pm. Notional preference counts from three big booths have gone relatively well for Labor, cutting 0.9 per cent from my projected swing.

8.16pm. Was wrong about Seaford Primary being a small booth: 2709 votes, evidently being a big growth area. Result consistent with overall trend.

8.10pm. 16 per cent swing at Boardwalk boosts overall swing.

8.00pm. Outstanding booths are big Altona West, medium-sized Boardwalk and (probably) small Seabrook Primary.

7.46pm. Double-digit primary vote swing to the Liberals at Jamieson Way.

7.37pm. Big Altona Bay and Derrimut booths swing very slightly below average, but the swing is still very likely to finish in double figures on 2PP and well over on the primary vote.

7.33pm. Large Laverton North booth almost exactly in line with existing result.

7.29pm. Altona and Altona Meadows reporting, respectively with heavier and lighter than average swings, collectively making no difference to the existing 2pp swing.

7.26pm. Antony Green confirms Bellbridge is Central Park, but I had misassigned the Laverton booth, not that it mattered much. Lots of differences in booth locations compared with 2006.

7.24. Another relatively mild result at the Laverton booth takes some more edge off the 2PP swing. Still over double figures, but it remains possible it might fall back under.

7.22pm. Not entirely sure where the just-reported Bellbridge booth is – I’m guessing Central Park Community centre for the time being. If I’m right, it’s a relatively mild but still heavy swing against Labor.

7.16pm. I’m informed Altona Meadows CC was a different booth from the one I thought – this means the 2PP swing is about 2 per cent lower than my projection.

7.14pm. Now I have actual preference figures from two booths, the swing looks even bigger – in other words, my preference estimates were flattering Labor.

7.09pm. Modest rise for the Greens so far by by-election standards; still only small booths in, but it looks like the cream of the swing is going to the Liberals.

7.07pm. New Point Cook North booth maintains the existing picture, perhaps despite expectations the new areas would be unusually strong for the Liberals.

7.04pm. Swing only slightly lower at the small Seabrook booth. Labor projected to win, but after a very uncomfortable swing.

7.01pm. Clearly Antony Green has Altona Meadows CC corresponding with the Altona Bay result from 2006, which had also been my lucky guess. So we look to have a swing against Labor of nearly 17 per cent on our first booth. Preference distributions are just estimates at this stage.

7pm. A booth called Altona Meadows CC has reported: not sure which of two Altona Meadows booths it corresponds with, but whichever it is there’s a huge swing against Labor well into the teens.

6pm. Welcome to live coverage of the count for Victoria’s Altona by-election, for which polls have just closed. The table above will show raw results for the primary vote, along with primary vote swings and two-party preferred projections based on booth matching.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

203 comments on “Altona by-election live”

Comments Page 4 of 5
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  1. Nathan – #127 & #134

    Thanks for providing that information which clears up some commonly held misconceptions.

    I knew that the “heavies” had got to the local girl and forced her to withdraw (on the promise of a seat elsewhere at another time) but I was unaware of the exact procedures.

    Suffice to say Labor powerbrokers are thugs who don’t care about ripping the heart out of local communities. They are evil. They are a joke and it’s time people on the ground started to stand up to their stand-over tactics.

  2. #151

    The evil Labor powerbrokers carried out their deeds while all the time declaring that the eventual candidate “won” a democratic selection process. Their fibs have been swallowed hook line and sinker by some unthinking Labor urgers.

  4. This are seats that the ALP hold by lass then the swing we saw tonight in Altona and i have made a little prediction that will of copurse be revised come November.

    Cranbourne 11.3% – A seat that could fall but Jude Perera appears to be a well regarded MP and should be able to hold

    Niddrie 11.23% Rob Hulls should hold Niddrie witho0ut must effort

    Narre Warren South 10.95% – The seat could go but only if the Government fell in a heap

    Bendigo West 10.57% – Bendigo should not be considered safe

    Ivanhoe 10.46% – An open contest, this seat might be really close

    Albert Park 9.7% – Now on papaer a safe ALP seat and yes Martin Foley has been seen as a good local MP but there are isues in this seat over planning that could hurt the ALP

    Narre Warren North 9.24% this seat is similar to Narre Warren South and Canbourne.

    Northcote (1) 8.53% This will be between the ALP and Greens with Fiona Richardson holding

    Geelong 8.34% Geelong could not be a problem for the ALP

    Macedon 8.18% Joanne Duncan will have to work hard to hold this traditional Liberal seat, the Liberals really need to win this seat and similar seats before they can be taken seriously.

    Bellarine 7.96% Lisa Neville ahs been under pressure as the Minister for DHS but she should be okay in Bellarine but just like Macedon the Liberals will want to win it

    Yan Yean 7.92% This is an interesting seat, the ALP did well to hold it during the Kennett years and will need to work hard to hold it, the South Morang railline project will benfit this seat.

    Carrum 6.72% Jenny Lindell will need to work hard to holdf, this seat could be well worth watching on election night

    Monbulk 6.69% A seat that the Liberals would have expected to win last time but fell well short

    Seymour 6.67% this seat was badly effected by Black Saturday and while it will nearly have been two years since those events that issue and the North South pipeline will be major issues. this seat looks like being a Liberal gain but Ben Hardman is seen as an active good local MP.

    Ballarat East 6.65% the two Ballarat seats, the Brack factor is gone but i don’er see the Liberals winning either of these two seats at this stage.

    Ballarat West 6.55%

    Eltham 6.49% This seat will be worth watching but should be an ALP hold

    Bentleigh 6.33% This seat will be hard for the ALP to hold but i think will only fall if we are seeing a change of Governemnt.

    Bendigo East 5.4% Similar story to the other regional centres, there will be some swing towards the Liberals but will it be enough to see a change.

    Ripon 4.36% No comment, i have repeatable written Joe Helper off and each time he has won

    Burwood 3.75% At thsi stage i consider this seat too close too call

    Richmond (2) 3.65% the ALP will hold this against the Greens

    Brunswick (3) 3.64% The ALP will hold against the Greens

    Prahran 3.56% Too Close too call, the clearways issue is big as it is across the inner city.

    Mordialloc 3.55% Janice Munt could be in danager

    Frankston 3.23% This seat will be a cracker to watch on election night, Harkness vs Rowe (former MP for Cranbourne) this will be close.

    South Barwon 2.29% A possible Liberal gain

    Melbourne (4) 2.02% Pike might be in some trouble but the Liberal vote will determine who wins here

    Mitcham 1.98% Tony Robinson will be up against it but with the Springvale Road project finally delivered then that may get him over the line

    Forest Hill 0.78% Kirstie Marshall might be a goner

    Gembrook 0.72% One of my favourite ALP MP Tammy Lobato may pull this seat off against the tide when nabouring seats could be falling.

    Mount Waverley 0.32% Lokks like being a hard job for Maxine Morand to hold here, she is facing the same Liberal candidate as last time.

  5. LOL a 12% swing in leftie heartland of Victoria.

    You couldn’t write this stuff if you tried. Maybe the Labor Party hacks in here will quieten down a little after this one.

  7. Thruth this result is a good one for the Liberal Party but Altona was always a 60-40 seat during the 1990s

    The Liberals can be happy that they showed up and they can be pleased with themselves.

  9. [Watching how Labor backbenchers these days are mainly cyphers, appearing on the Parliamentary “doors” mouthing the lies given to them by a flack from the Prime Minister’s office]

    Post 3885

    The original article says LINES you substituted LIES

    Tagged and Bagged, peter young

  14. MB Frankston is gone – my Mum lives down there and everyone ios sick to death of the congeston at the end of the Frankston Fwy – even the announcement of the by-pass won’t help. Trains are also a massive issue

  15. Seeing John Brumby and Ted Baillieu are only 3 months different in age and went to the same school – so could have been in the same form – what I want to know is “did John Brumby run around Melbourne Grammar and call Ted a Toorak Toff then?”

    Our John is hardly a battler who went to a suburban comprehensive, neither is Rob Hulls, nor a few other Labor ministers – so may be they should pull their heads in on the class warfare thing.

    The Altona result might instill a bit of discipline into the Libs so they can give knocking off Brumby a better crack later in the year – though I can’t see the ALP losing. Brumby is starting to fall into the Bob Carr mould of ‘spin always, act never’ which is ultimately incredibly destructive – ask the voters of NSW – his comments reported in The Age tonight are just symptomatic of the rubbish that gets spewed out.

  16. From News Ltd story

    “Labor predicted a swing of more than 10 percent against the Government, citing `demographic changes to the seat’ as reasons for a protest vote.”

    I’m assuming if they were publicly trying to talk up a 10%+ swing, then privately they were expecting around 5-10%? Give them the usual “it’s not as bad as we predicted” line…..

  17. This weekend the north south pipeline starts delivering water to Melborne. That is not the actions of a premier that does nothing.

  18. A comment over on Vex news raises a good point .

    “And another major concern for Team Liberal in this result…

    ALP HQ conducted a very deliberate live market “test” in Laverton North.

    The Labor campaign message here was all about Ted’s role in the closure and sale of a very local school.

    Ted’s approval of the closure was pushed – as was his role in selling it off.

    What happened in Laverton North???

    Labor fought Liberal to a standstill, and halved the general swing in that area to about 6-7%.

    Now, given all of the factors going naturally against Labor in Altona – this means we can expect corrective action campaigning from ALP HQ based on this message, and hospitals, and transport services etc…

    It worked in Altona, and it will work in virtually every other electorate”

    Check out the booth swings on Antony Greens site.

    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2010/byelections/altona_result.htm

  19. [Now, given all of the factors going naturally against Labor in Altona]

    What defeatist rubbish this is!

    12% 2PP swing against the incumbent – OUCH!

  20. #168

    Isn’t Laverton North older than most of the rest of the seat, and largely housing commission? These would perhaps be more logical explanations of the lack of swing.

    Admittedly that doesn’t explain the other Laverton booth which had a 13% swing. Maybe some of the Point Cook and Seabrook people voted there.

  22. [Jill Hennessy MP. Got to love a winner.]

    When it’s one of Labor’s safest seats on over 20% of the 2PP, and you are boasting that you’ve won it, it simply shows how incredibly low your standards have sunk.

    🙂

  23. MDM,

    The point is that Labor ran a spirited campaign in that area around a school closure linked to Baillieau and the swing against Labor was halved.

    In a largely “Seinfeld” by election, the fact that a focussed campaign on a specific issue worked is worth remembering for future reference.

  25. #173

    Sure, but was this because of the campaign or because it’s an area that doesn’t naturally swing in the first place? I personally wouldn’t expect older, established housing commission areas to be very volatile, compared to somewhere like Point Cook.

  29. The definition of drowning is crowing about retaining a seat you held on a 2PP margin in the 20s, which has been whittled down to a single digit.

    Sad.

  31. William

    Anyone who is surprised by this result has not been concentrating. The Libs were always going to run a credible candidate and get a healthy swing. I suspect that the apparently low turnout reflects Labor voters protest and/or apathy.

  32. I think the Vic ALP wants to wake up. Ballieu is probably the ONLY thing keeping Brumby in the race this year. Brumby is heading towards a Kennett 99 result – every bit as aloof and arrogant, brooking no criticism, admitting no mistakes

    Which is a dangerous strategy when you run a 3rd rate dilapidated shambles of a public transport system – ESPECIALLY to your heartland supporters.

    Let me say that again, because I mean every word: 3rd rate. dilapidated. shambles.

    Id be surprised if Brumby holds on this year. He really wants a jolt to get his mind on the job. The response to this Altona appears to suggest denial mode.

  33. Skybeau – Frankston while not a bellwether like Eden Monaro is but still it is as seat that normally goes with the Governent.

    Frankston is similar to seats like Mordiallic and not too different to Bentleigh so if Franga goes then the odds are the other two seats further north along the Frankston Train line sould also fall to the Liberals.

    I wrote here a long time ago that the next Victorian State poll could be like the 1996 election where the Government suffered large swings against an opposition that was seen as poor performing.

    But then again the 2006 Victorian state poll could turn out and this upcoming election might turn out to be very close.

    I would also point out that if the ALP are on the skins in Frankston then that does increase the Liberals chances in seats like Cranbourne which is currently held by 11% but that seat is a far changing seat in turns of population.

    Seats like Cranbourne and Altona show why Victoria needs a re-distribution. They are well over quota

  34. [Anyone who is surprised by this result has not been concentrating. The Libs were always going to run a credible candidate]

    So this means a safe Labor seat should suffer a 12% 2PP swing?

    What a complete and utter vote of no confidence you’re giving there…

  35. Bob1234

    This result is a poor result for the ALP on paper except it won the seat and as Joghn Howard would say all that counts is 50 + 1

    I dojn’t know why you are getting so excited that the Liberals recieved a swing of that side, Glen who actually has a good reason to be excited as from what i have seen only made a handful of comments.

    I suspect Bob1234 it might be a good excercise for you to turn off your computer and go out and enjoy a walk

  37. I think those downplaying the result in Altona are being unrealistic. The VEC does not seem to have recorded the swings in the Kororoit, Williamstown or Albert Park by-elections, but I do not think any of them was as big as the swing against Labor in Altona. It does not have implications for Kevin Rudd, but if John Brumby’s response as reported today is anything to go by, he is not getting the message. This does not mean I now think that Labor will lose the state election this year, but it will certainly lose seats and be in real trouble in 2014.

  39. Mexican @154

    In Mitcham, Tony Robinson was an incredibly active local MP when he was a backbencher – now invisible as a minister. The ALP might be vulnerable to demographic change as Blackburn and Mitcham are moving upmarket as they attract more people that cannot the suburbs further in – Surrey Hills, Canterbury etc. Also, Labor campaigned against a Springvale Road underpass in 2006 – it ‘wasn’t necessary’ – only caved in when they had to and feds coughed up the money. If the libs had not agreed to the the extra Crown gaming machines, he may have been vulnerable to a concerted attack on gambling – may still be if the local churches decided to take it up.

    As for Kirstie Marshall in Forest Hill – she must be the laziest, lowest profile member ever for a highly marginal seat – after all she has never deigned to even live in the seat – inner city Richmond is her abode – closer to her Brighton school chums no doubt!

    From what I gather, Maxine Morand in Mount Waverley is extremely hard working and has a high local profile, if there is a swing, the swing against may be smaller than others though she is on a knife edge.

  41. There’s a problem with the “live market “test” in Laverton North” theory (#168), namely that the ABC website has the names of the Laverton booths transposed. As you can see from the VEC site ( http://vec.vic.gov.au/stateby2010TCPbyVCAltonaDistrict.html ), the booth recording the comparatively small swing was Laverton, not Laverton North. Laverton North got a swing of 13.1%, slightly above the average.

  42. Result compatible with recent polls, suggests that the government will be returned with a notably reduced majority and then face a difficult 4 years. Is Ted B as vulnerable to a negative campaign as Springborg and Debnam I doubt it?

  44. Stats are everything you want them to be. A 12% swing in a 50/50 seat is a loss of 24% of your vote. A 12% swing in seat held with 70% 2PP is a 17% loss. The safer the seat the more margin for a big swing.

    It still remains obvious that there were enough things (transport, law and order, health etc.) annoying voters to explain the swing. Whether it represents a protest or a more permanent rejection of the Brumby govt is the real Q.

  47. Bob1234 I am not wearing Rose coloured glasses.

    I actually think the Liberals were making progess until the Black Saturdat fires, for a period of time the Government regained its Mojo.

    I think with the increasing number of attacks on Indian students, issues regarding Public Transport and pub related planning issues we could see the Liberals make in roads.

    The Liberals need to be more out there with their issues much like the ALP were in the lead up to 1999.

    Brumby is a lower key type premier than Kennett was therefore the public’s relation is less strong, this may be masking the Governments deeper problems.

  48. Yes labor will lose seats in Victoria. A lot depends on what rable the liberals run with. Eg Burwood they are running a complete muppet Watt. He ran at the council elections and managed a measily 1200 votes- his wife ran too and outpolled him. He runs a cleaning business. His only chance of entering parliament house is if he wins the cleaning contract.
    I agree that forest hill, mt. waverley and mitcham are very dangerous. I think they may all go. Only Mt. waverley is a chance to retain due to Morands higher ministerial profile and hard work.

  49. And beemer is right with bush fire thing. Ted is also a huge liability. I remember he thanked the liberal party members for all their hard work (no one else!!) And he is going to ban the bong!!! what a knob!

  50. @Chris Curtis (187) – there were no swings recorded for Albert Park or Williamstown because the Liberals ran in neither, and in the Kororoit by-election, although a Liberal ran the 2cp was ALP vs IND (Twentyman). The Labor primary vote fell 13% at the Kororoit by-election, the Green primary vote also fell 5%, whilst the Libs got an increase of 5% and Twentyman picked up 20%. An independent getting eliminated from the race saw Labor’s position improve by 1.5% in comparative terms, so the swing could be estimated at roughly 11.5%.

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