Morgan phone poll: 53.5-46.5

Long overdue for a new post, so let the record note that Roy Morgan published results of a phone poll on Friday which had Labor’s lead at 53.5-46.5, compared with 54.5-45.5 at the previous such poll a month ago. It should be noted that Morgan’s headline polls are their face-to-face efforts, which are published weekly or fortnightly depending on the company’s whim, and these tend to show Labor with a bigger lead. The phone polls are from small samples of about 550, with a margin of error of over 4 per cent. Newspoll should report tomorrow evening, unless The Australian decides to get in early, and Essential Research should as always report tomorrow afternoon.

UPDATE (15/2/10): The Courier-Mail has delivered figures on Queensland federal voting in addition to yesterday’s state survey. They too show a lurch to the Coalition, from 46-54 behind in November to 51-49 ahead. This would represent a swing to the Coalition of 1.4 per cent from the 2007 election. However, the federal and state results taken together raise suspicions that this was a good sample for the Coalition.

UPDATE 2 (15/2/10): A Westpoll survey of 407 respondents in Western Australia shows the federal Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49 in that state, which would amount to a 2.3 per cent swing to Labor compared with the 2007 election result. The previous such survey in December, conducted immediately after the leadership change, had Labor leading 53-47. The margin of error on these surveys is approaching 5 per cent.

UPDATE 3 (15/2/10): The Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead steady at 55-45. It also offers us the unusual spectacle of approval ratings of the parties’ finance spokesman: Lindsay Tanner is plus 7, Barnaby Joyce is minus 11, and both have high “don’t know” ratings. Further questions find Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister lower than it was, strong approval for a federal health takeover, and disapproval for a population of 36 million by 2050.

Much afoot in the world of Labor preselection:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Dobell MP Craig Thomson, who has hit heavy weather over allegations of credit card abuse and failure to disclose donations from his days as a Health Services Union official, will be challenged for Labor preselection by David Mehan, who contested the seat unsuccessfully in 2004. However, “factional number crunchers” quoted in the report do not expect him to be troubled.

Roderick Shaw of the Penrith City Star reports Liberal Senator Marise Payne is said to be hopeful of standing in Lindsay at the next election. The seat’s Labor member, David Bradbury, has denied a rumour aired in Crikey that he wants Roger Price to make way for him in neighbouring Chifley.

Fairfax reports Jason Young, Labor’s narrowly unsuccessful candidate for Bowman in 2007, has withdrawn from contention to stand again this year. The report quotes Young denying his withdrawal was releated to an imminent court appearance for driving with a suspended licence and in an unregistered vehicle. The front-runner appears to be Phil Weightman, who lost his state seat of Cleveland at the March 2009 election, and like Young is a member of the Left.

Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports Rick Sarre, professor of law and commerce at the University of South Australia, is firming in contention to win Labor preselection for Sturt.

Soraiya Gharahkhani of the Campbelltown Macarthur Advertiser reports Camden deputy mayor Greg Warren has withdrawn from the Labor preselection race in Macarthur, which leaves Nick Bleasdale and Paul Nunnari.

Roma Dickins of the Camden Advertiser reports on Pat Farmer’s hopes to keep his political career alive in the state seat of Camden, where he faces stiff opposition from local mayor Chris Patterson. Farmer has lost preselection for his federal seat of Macarthur.

Stephen Mayne and Graeme Orr discuss party donation disclosures on Radio National’s The National Interest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

885 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 53.5-46.5”

  1. [If you’re interested in politics don’t call him names, try to understand his prejudice and miss conceptions.]

    I don’t mind his prejudices and misconceptions. I mind his insulting everyone’s intelligence by telling shameless, obvious, barefaced lies.

  2. Before the last election:
    [In a column in The Sydney Morning Herald today, Mr Abbott said Mr Rudd’s story of losing his father when he was 11 and his family’s subsequent eviction from their farm “sounds too self-serving to be true”.]

    Abbott wrote a number of articles during the run up to the last election and many of them had that sleaze element in them.

    Turnbull’s character flaw was uncontrolled narcissism. I believe Abbott’s character flaw (apart from contradicting himself every two minutes) is a deep seated malice toward anybody not with him that draws him to revert to sleaze like the above example. I wonder where he learned it?

    It seems to be a consistent trait of Abbott and maybe something Labor can exploit.

  3. Re ; Donations.

    A system of weekly reporting of donations, with inputed information put up the web immediately, would be a great idea. One of the USA states oerates a similar system. system.

  4. Abbott said this of Rudd Opposition leader:

    [“It is our legitimate job to question and probe and hold up for public assessment the characteristics of that individual.”]

    ‘that individual’ – gee Tony your hate spills out.

    So I guess Abbott cannot complain if the same comes upon him.

    However I believe the best way for Rudd to deal with Tabbott is to ignore him and let the minions deal with him. Abbott is attempting to drag Rudd down to his level, Rudd should stay up there talking direct to the people.

  5. If my views are prejudiced and “misconceptions” than what are your views to me?

    Perhaps I’m not the prejudiced or misconcieved one.

  6. On another note if Rudd and Tanner had performed like Abbott and Joyce had before the last election the Murdoch media would have ripped them to shreds with zero mercy.

    But we scarcely get a peep out of the Murdoch media over the abysmal way Abbott and Joyce have conducted themselves. In fact we get adoration from them instead, even though Abbott and Joyce would have to the worst candidates we have seen for a very long time.

    I wonder why this is?

  7. Truthy

    I would love people from the Lib-Nat side of politics to comment on Pollybludger, without spouting spin from Lib HQ.

    If they want to assert something, great. If they can back that up with links to credible sources, even better.

    I think you will find that Labor and Green supporters can manage to do this. Hopefully you can and will in the future.

  8. It has been reported that requests to charities for accommodation have increased substantially over the 2008-2009 period. Some say this is caused by peoples inability to stay in the private rental market.

    Sydney City Council commenced counting homeless people in the local government area of Sydney City in August 2008, to better inform policy makers, in tackling the question of homelessness. Counts are conducted each 6 months (February- summer, and August – winter).

    Results todate have been:
    August 2008 -823
    February 2009 – 791
    August 2009 – 837.

    The next street count will be held on Tuesday morning 16 February 2010 from 1am until 3am.
    http://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/Community/HomelessnessServices/StreetCount.asp

  9. [I would love people from the Lib-Nat side of politics to comment on Pollybludger, without spouting spin from Lib HQ.]

    I’ve told you already, i’m not a Lib voter, i’m a swing voter

  10. [Sydney City Council commenced counting homeless people in the local government area of Sydney City in August 2008]

    A great initiative, why did they wait so long? Could it be related to a new Federal Govt?

  11. The recorded increase appears to be 14 persons, or 1.7%, from August 08 to August 09. Is this “substantial” ? Or is it another doctored statement?

  12. [I’ve told you already, i’m not a Lib voter, i’m a swing voter]

    Fair enough, but the basis of my prior post still remains. But I doubt your assertion.

  13. HTT, the only swinging you would be likely to do would be from One Notion to Liberal and back again. You are an unreconstructed bigot, liar and fraud.

  14. Maris Paines for Lindsay says everything that is wrong with the Liberal Party.

    Someone of her talent should be provided a safe seat. as i am sure would be the case his she was an ALP MP

  15. Clover Moore, after defeating Labor’s attempt to take control of the City in 2004 in so that Labor could hand it over carte blanche to developers, had to prioritise things – and one of the main issues was dealing with the disaster caused by the Cross City Tunnel, another was tackling climate change (all things start at the local level), another was cleaning up the mess created by legal action against the council arising out of contracts regarding street poles signed off by former Lord Mayor Frank Sartor, there was the refurbishment of local precincts – all of which diverted resources and attention away from tackling homelessness in a structured way. There is no suggestion it had anything to do with the federal government.

  16. We spend Billions looking after thousands of Queue Jumpers from Indonesia, yet we can’t afford to look after a handful of homeless people in Sydney.

    Disgraceful.

  17. HTT, you could not give a toss about the homeless, especially those among them that are aboriginal. The only disgrace is your perversion of the facts.

  18. [We spend Billions looking after thousands of Queue Jumpers from Indonesia…]

    No, they are not Indonesian they are mainly from Sri Lanka and Afghanistan. The UN states between 10 and 40,000 civilians died in the last month of the Sri Lankan civil war.

  19. [No, they are not Indonesian they are mainly from Sri Lanka and Afghanistan. The UN states between 10 and 40,000 civilians died in the last month of the Sri Lankan civil war.]

    They are from Indonesia. Some have been living there for 10 years.

    In fact quite a few were waiting for Australia to go soft on illegal immigration laws before coming after the Pacific Solution was introduced.

  20. [In fact quite a few were waiting for Australia to go soft on illegal immigration laws before coming after the Pacific Solution was introduced.]

    Please explain?

  21. [’ve told you already, i’m not a Lib voter, i’m a swing voter]

    Yeah sure you are.

    You churn out Liberal talking points on every single issue.

    I can understand you being ashamed of supporting the Liberal Party; but really, the first step to a cure is to acknowledge you have a problem.

  22. As I posted earlier, Abbott and the Libs are running true to form. A leopard doesn’t “ever” change its spots!

    [This is a question put to the retiring PM at the press conference he gave yesterday (pdf), after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates for the sixth time since the 2004 election, along with the PM’s answer:

    JOURNALIST:Mr Howard, you say everybody’s accountable for their own statements but earlier you seemed to suggest that an interview you’d given in the last campaign where you said interest rates would be at record lows was not important because it was more, it was an impression that people took away, that you’d be keeping interest rates low was more important. Are you not accountable for every word you say in an election campaign?

    PRIME MINISTER:But the impression people take away is drawn from a whole lot of statements people make. In an election campaign you do multiple interviews, you get asked innumerable questions and it’s no one statement that totally, well very rarely, is it one statement that totally sort of, adumbrates the whole thing. It’s the aggregate impression and look I campaigned hard on interest rates at the last election and I don’t apologise for that because I believe what I said, that interest rates would always be lower under the Coalition than under Labor, and I say that again, and the evidence now is just as strong.

    Tony Abbott has a good word for this sort of answer. Honestly, it’s just pathetic, this endless dissembling about what he said, what he meant, which bits matter, which bits we are meant to pay attention to, which bits we are meant to ignore, how many times they are uttered, and on and on and on with the excuses. ]
    http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/pm_adumbrates_the_positive/P80/

  23. The platform on which Clover ran her campaign in 2004, namely that Labor’s attempt to take control of the council and hand it over to developers resonated with electors. from being expected to win control of the Council at the start of the campaign in 2004, Labor managed to only secure 3 out of the 9 seats. The Labor councillors then voted as a block with the Liberal councillor – trying to defeat progressive policy implementation.
    In the September 2008 elections, electors could see the folly of Labors actions on the council, and voted accordingly. Just one Labor councillor was elected. The 2 seats dropped by Labor were taken by a Green and one by an Indepedent.

  24. [TheTruthHurts
    Posted Sunday, February 14, 2010 at 7:49 pm | Permalink

    If my views are prejudiced and “misconceptions” than what are your views to me?

    Perhaps I’m not the prejudiced or misconcieved one.]

    I’m pretty sure TTH that you would dismiss me as a comme; not stopping to consider that perhaps your lack of education and travel may have led to a narrow point of view.

  25. Has Linda Scott, the failed Labor candidate for Sydney in 2007, as yet filed an amending Donations Disclosure Return, to disclose the donation she received from Kristina Keneally, who had received the money from Frank Sartor as yet?

    Hopefully the NSW Electoral Commission site is not down (result of a spam attack) – so I will check now. It is just less than 3 years since the election….Linda Scott may have got around to filling out the forms by now…who knows.

  26. [….Linda Scott may have got around to filling out the forms by now…who knows.]

    Who cares? PY the world does not revolve around inner city Sydney.

  27. [ Peter Young
    Posted Sunday, February 14, 2010 at 8:48 pm | Permalink

    ….. failed Labor candidate for Sydney in 2007……]

    ????????????
    PY it’s 2010.
    Why would anyone care?

  28. [TTH, I thought your current rant was on hospitals, why the sudden change to boat people, I thought you had done that to death.]

    Actually my rant was about yet another broken election promise. No suprises there though.

    I won’t hold my breath waiting for a federal take over of hospitals, Rudd’s done a runner from that little promise.

  29. #37

    Nope…still no updating return appears on the website.

    Maybe the Election Funding Authority which has been starved of funds hasn’t had time since February 2009 to update its website.

  30. [TheTruthHurts
    Posted Sunday, February 14, 2010 at 8:54 pm | Permalink

    ….

    Actually my rant was about yet another broken election promise. No suprises there though.]

    If you were a liberal stooge then no; I wouldn’t be surprised. But I though you where a red neck; red necks don’t worry about broken promises; my mistake sorry.

  31. dave

    from way back

    On the best structure for hospital admin, it’s probably not a one size fits all thing

    1. Hospital boards are definitely better than regions in SA from my experience
    2. The region thing is terrible in NSW
    3. Vic is well recognised to have the best health system in Oz and they should stick to whatever they have which I gather from zoomster is hospital boards
    4. Qld is so decentralised in population centres and for the reasons OPT has mentioned I think Qld is probably better with regions, not hospital boards

    On Rudd and taking over hospitals, I think if he doesn’t have a referendum that he has done a runner and he is behind on his own “road-map” but it’s too early to say he’s broken that election promise.

  32. [ Why would anyone care? ]

    I suppose some people may care to see that the law is obeyed. Others may fear that the Disclosure laws are being circumvented – by people just failing to lodge returns. Others may care because in 2008 it was announced an amending return would be filed as soon as possible.

    Others may care that politicians actually do the right thing, instead of just treating the Disclosure laws as a joke.

    I am wondering why anyone would not care.

Comments are closed.