Morgan phone poll: 53.5-46.5

Long overdue for a new post, so let the record note that Roy Morgan published results of a phone poll on Friday which had Labor’s lead at 53.5-46.5, compared with 54.5-45.5 at the previous such poll a month ago. It should be noted that Morgan’s headline polls are their face-to-face efforts, which are published weekly or fortnightly depending on the company’s whim, and these tend to show Labor with a bigger lead. The phone polls are from small samples of about 550, with a margin of error of over 4 per cent. Newspoll should report tomorrow evening, unless The Australian decides to get in early, and Essential Research should as always report tomorrow afternoon.

UPDATE (15/2/10): The Courier-Mail has delivered figures on Queensland federal voting in addition to yesterday’s state survey. They too show a lurch to the Coalition, from 46-54 behind in November to 51-49 ahead. This would represent a swing to the Coalition of 1.4 per cent from the 2007 election. However, the federal and state results taken together raise suspicions that this was a good sample for the Coalition.

UPDATE 2 (15/2/10): A Westpoll survey of 407 respondents in Western Australia shows the federal Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49 in that state, which would amount to a 2.3 per cent swing to Labor compared with the 2007 election result. The previous such survey in December, conducted immediately after the leadership change, had Labor leading 53-47. The margin of error on these surveys is approaching 5 per cent.

UPDATE 3 (15/2/10): The Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead steady at 55-45. It also offers us the unusual spectacle of approval ratings of the parties’ finance spokesman: Lindsay Tanner is plus 7, Barnaby Joyce is minus 11, and both have high “don’t know” ratings. Further questions find Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister lower than it was, strong approval for a federal health takeover, and disapproval for a population of 36 million by 2050.

Much afoot in the world of Labor preselection:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Dobell MP Craig Thomson, who has hit heavy weather over allegations of credit card abuse and failure to disclose donations from his days as a Health Services Union official, will be challenged for Labor preselection by David Mehan, who contested the seat unsuccessfully in 2004. However, “factional number crunchers” quoted in the report do not expect him to be troubled.

• Roderick Shaw of the Penrith City Star reports Liberal Senator Marise Payne is said to be hopeful of standing in Lindsay at the next election. The seat’s Labor member, David Bradbury, has denied a rumour aired in Crikey that he wants Roger Price to make way for him in neighbouring Chifley.

• Fairfax reports Jason Young, Labor’s narrowly unsuccessful candidate for Bowman in 2007, has withdrawn from contention to stand again this year. The report quotes Young denying his withdrawal was releated to an imminent court appearance for driving with a suspended licence and in an unregistered vehicle. The front-runner appears to be Phil Weightman, who lost his state seat of Cleveland at the March 2009 election, and like Young is a member of the Left.

• Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports Rick Sarre, professor of law and commerce at the University of South Australia, is firming in contention to win Labor preselection for Sturt.

• Soraiya Gharahkhani of the Campbelltown Macarthur Advertiser reports Camden deputy mayor Greg Warren has withdrawn from the Labor preselection race in Macarthur, which leaves Nick Bleasdale and Paul Nunnari.

• Roma Dickins of the Camden Advertiser reports on Pat Farmer’s hopes to keep his political career alive in the state seat of Camden, where he faces stiff opposition from local mayor Chris Patterson. Farmer has lost preselection for his federal seat of Macarthur.

• Stephen Mayne and Graeme Orr discuss party donation disclosures on Radio National’s The National Interest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

885 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 53.5-46.5”

Comments Page 2 of 18
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  2. [I’m a Paleo-Conservative Libertarian]

    In that case, in my opinion, you are a froot loop. Maybe you should seek asylum in the US.

  4. TTH

    Actually my rant was about yet another broken election promise. No suprises there though.

    I won’t hold my breath waiting for a federal take over of hospitals, Rudd’s done a runner from that little promise

    1. Actually you rant was about you’re mistaken interpretation of exactly what Rudd promised
    2. This was pointed out to you, and the actual transcript of it quoted by several people – I was one of them – but you persist in dishonestly misrepresenting what Rudd said
    3. So your dishonest claim Rudd’s done a runner from that little promise when you were provided with ample blockquotes of the actul wording is yet another example of your persistent lying.

    PS: I didn’t miss, and won’t forget, the comment on Townsville Hospital. So you’re back to regurgitating Tory crap, this time Mark McArdle.
    Pathetic!

  5. [As the Premier has instituted legal proceedings over the program, Seven has agreed to pay his reasonable costs in settlement. No damages were sought.]

    Probably a fair chance that a deal has been done by 7 to retract all the statements that that cannot substantiate.

    They are just playing silly buggers by dolling out the withdrawals and half-baked back-downs in dribs and drabs to at least keep part of the issue alive long enough to get a few sales out of it.

  6. PY

    Seven has offered to pay his legal fees but no damages. We’ll have to see if Rann accepts that or wants to challenge the affair allegation in court.

    It’s probably a smart legal move by Seven. If he chooses to pursue the case, they will argue that they retracted any implication that Rann did anything wrong (as such) so he doesn’t have any damages.

  7. #53
    [ Who cares? ]

    I imagine that not many people would care if he rooted her except perhaps his wife, his children and the god-botherers.

  8. [So that only leaves the question:
    Did he root her or not.]

    Why don’t you ask Rann and see what he has to say about it! 😉

    I can guess his answer would be similar to most PB’ers.

    ie, Mind your own bloody business.

  10. [I imagine that not many people would care if he rooted her except perhaps his wife, his children and the god-botherers.]

    Wasn’t he a single man at the time? Why shouldn’t he bonk anything and everything that takes his fancy?

  12. [ Why don’t you ask Rann and see what he has to say about it! ]

    When he was asked by the media whether he rooted her he said he hadn’t.

  13. [When he was asked by the media whether he rooted her he said he hadn’t.]

    If that is not good enough for you, then you better ask Rann yourself.

    No good asking us. We are not his keepers!

  14. Of course the Ch 7 retraction of its bollocks story was probably due to Conroy skiing down the slopes with Stokes.

    Rann and Conroy are Labor mates, of course.

    Hey PY – hows that for a conspiracy?

  15. Young Peter seems to want to turn PB into a poor version of the agony aunt/sexual discussion pages of the New Idea.

    Go read Cosmopolitan ar something, PY. You might find out what you are looking for there!

  16. PS You’re = your.

    PSS Anyone else’s ADSL2 slowed to a dying old tortoise’s Pace? Cricket + Winter Games, I guess.

    PSSS Typed this 7 mins ago & it still hasn’t obeyed the “post” button

  17. [Of course the Ch 7 retraction of its bollocks story was probably due to Conroy skiing down the slopes with Stokes.

    Rann and Conroy are Labor mates, of course.

    Hey PY – hows that for a conspiracy?]

    Crikey! $250m just buy off 7 to save Rann! Rudd has some questions to answer here!

  18. [Anyone else’s ADSL2 slowed to a dying old tortoise’s Pace?]

    Wots ADSL 2 ? Can’t get it here ’cause Telstra wont upgrade the exchange.

  20. TTT Paleo-Conservative? I thought you lived in Australia, what has USA conservatism got to do with Australian politics. It is after all a term coined Paul Gottfried in 1980 to describe an USA condition.

    As a Libertarian I assume you support Turnbull, and thus Rudd using the market to control the use of carbon as opposed to Abbots efforts to use big government.

  21. Better late, than never. From previous thread:

    [No surprise here given what we know of our resident dolphin. Dolphins are ranked number 1 as the most promiscuous animal. We probably won’t be hearing much from Finns because he no doubt has a very full Valentine’s Day calendar. ]

    Diog, they dont call us the Wanderers of the Seas for nothing. I dont even know today is Valentine’s Day. No wonder the OH (A Tigar) has been very grumpy the whole day. I thought it was just Chinese New Year Day where you just chomp, chomp, chomp, the killer whale sashimi and the raw prawns (Courtesy of Toothy from the Arafura Sea after his AS Patrol).

    [Finns – A very Happy Chinese New Year to you too! – I even saw your pole in the corner!]

    Oh dear Amigo Vera, was it that obvious? Next time, i will be more careful where i put it. Just as well that Mae West wasnt around to say: “hey big boy, are you just happy to see me or is it a gun in your pocket”. Tap, tap, tap.

  23. [Peter Young
    Posted Sunday, February 14, 2010 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

    Why don’t you ask Rann and see what he has to say about it!

    When he was asked by the media whether he rooted her he said he hadn’t.]

    And why would anyone care one way or the other. Who drops their pants where has little to do with public policy.

  25. #63 – Scorpio.

    [ If that is not good enough for you, then you better ask Rann yourself.]

    You are not too bright are you.

    My statement regarding the remaining question of whether he rooted her or not related to the remaining issues in the defamation case following the retraction of the statements re derilection of duty.

    I should have known that you would not understand that – in future it is best if I spell make a lengthy and detailed exposition on each idea.

  26. Finns

    [I dont even know today is Valentine’s Day. No wonder the OH (A Tigar) has been very grumpy the whole day.]

    There are florists still open for people like you who are in BIG TROUBLE for forgetting Valentine’s Day. :kiss:

  28. [ dave

    from way back

    On the best structure for hospital admin]

    Thanks Dio. Fair enough for what you are saying.

    Its hard to get a non partisan view on all of this. I have seen your prior comments on the AMA and really I tune out when their latest stooge appears on screen.

  29. py….you may think you’re new-fangled, but some of us have seen much more accomplished con-artists than you. even with my fading vision, it is possible to see right through you, who have proven it is possible to be immature and yet pompous at the same time.

  31. [You are not too bright are you.]

    Nah! Getting old and the old IQ is dropping fast. Just make sure “you” don’t grow old PY, as it will just as certainly happen to “you” too!

    [I should have known that you would not understand that – in future it is best if I spell make a lengthy and detailed exposition on each idea.]

    You didn’t do too well in your grade nine literacy & numeracy test, did you, PY?

    Never mind, you can’t expect to have youth, beauty “and” intelligence, can you PY?

  32. scorpio@81

    [You didn’t do too well in your grade nine literacy & numeracy test, did you, PY?]

    Which explains his hatred for the MySchools Website – as it reveals how bad his school REALLY is. 🙂

  33. Scorpio

    I think I will let you have the last word on the personal insults – cos my next move would really upset you.

    I am far too responsible to do that.

  35. Peter Young “51

    So that only leaves the question:
    Did he root her or not.

    Yuck! Year 9 “behind the bike rack” sleaze!

    Grow up, Voyeur!

  36. [Scorpio

    I think I will let you have the last word on the personal insults – cos my next move would really upset you.]

    Nay! Go right ahead. I double dare you!!!

  40. [Thats what the kids used to say in Primary School.]

    And that’s the level of the tosh that you continually post!

    It should therefore be no surprise that we have to come down to “your” level in order to interact with you!

  41. #82
    [ Which explains his hatred for the MySchools Website – as it reveals how bad his school REALLY is.]

    I already said my school was awash with pinks and reds – if that means my school is REALLY bad….so be it.

  42. #90
    [ It should therefore be no surprise that we have to come down to “your” level in order to interact with you!]

    I may be mistaken, but I thought you had said you were not coming back to this site because of the lack of intelligent debate here.

  45. I think Rudd has made a mistake in explaining the public hospital takeover. He’s said that the hospitals are in need of “urgent surgery” but then goes on to say that he’s taking longer than planned because he needs to get it right.

    Both answers are true but they don’t sit well together.

  46. Gusface,

    I’ve just about run out of wafers for the tr*ll but it sure is entertaining seeing him swinging in the breeze trying to extract himself out of his numerous gaffes!

    An earlier one only took him 8 hours of excruciatingly painful back peddling and linguistical contortions.

    It’s like watching a woeful street performer. You have to throw a coin their way every now and again just to see if they can get any worse! 😉

  49. Finns

    Been doing some contract work into qld.

    Some highlights of the feeback about how Rudd was
    *Sent power to the moon- stumped me
    *employed 60000 public servants in his pr dept- telstra?
    *got us into 600billion debt
    *was selling out on allowing migrants into take jobs- and in the next breathe confided he had about 30 employees but it was a Howard scheme 457? so was ok
    *quoted the Boswell defence about CC- his 40footer still drew the same draught and he could still fish in his fav spots

    I think some people are wilfully stoopid

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