Morgan phone poll: 53.5-46.5

Long overdue for a new post, so let the record note that Roy Morgan published results of a phone poll on Friday which had Labor’s lead at 53.5-46.5, compared with 54.5-45.5 at the previous such poll a month ago. It should be noted that Morgan’s headline polls are their face-to-face efforts, which are published weekly or fortnightly depending on the company’s whim, and these tend to show Labor with a bigger lead. The phone polls are from small samples of about 550, with a margin of error of over 4 per cent. Newspoll should report tomorrow evening, unless The Australian decides to get in early, and Essential Research should as always report tomorrow afternoon.

UPDATE (15/2/10): The Courier-Mail has delivered figures on Queensland federal voting in addition to yesterday’s state survey. They too show a lurch to the Coalition, from 46-54 behind in November to 51-49 ahead. This would represent a swing to the Coalition of 1.4 per cent from the 2007 election. However, the federal and state results taken together raise suspicions that this was a good sample for the Coalition.

UPDATE 2 (15/2/10): A Westpoll survey of 407 respondents in Western Australia shows the federal Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49 in that state, which would amount to a 2.3 per cent swing to Labor compared with the 2007 election result. The previous such survey in December, conducted immediately after the leadership change, had Labor leading 53-47. The margin of error on these surveys is approaching 5 per cent.

UPDATE 3 (15/2/10): The Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead steady at 55-45. It also offers us the unusual spectacle of approval ratings of the parties’ finance spokesman: Lindsay Tanner is plus 7, Barnaby Joyce is minus 11, and both have high “don’t know” ratings. Further questions find Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister lower than it was, strong approval for a federal health takeover, and disapproval for a population of 36 million by 2050.

Much afoot in the world of Labor preselection:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Dobell MP Craig Thomson, who has hit heavy weather over allegations of credit card abuse and failure to disclose donations from his days as a Health Services Union official, will be challenged for Labor preselection by David Mehan, who contested the seat unsuccessfully in 2004. However, “factional number crunchers” quoted in the report do not expect him to be troubled.

• Roderick Shaw of the Penrith City Star reports Liberal Senator Marise Payne is said to be hopeful of standing in Lindsay at the next election. The seat’s Labor member, David Bradbury, has denied a rumour aired in Crikey that he wants Roger Price to make way for him in neighbouring Chifley.

• Fairfax reports Jason Young, Labor’s narrowly unsuccessful candidate for Bowman in 2007, has withdrawn from contention to stand again this year. The report quotes Young denying his withdrawal was releated to an imminent court appearance for driving with a suspended licence and in an unregistered vehicle. The front-runner appears to be Phil Weightman, who lost his state seat of Cleveland at the March 2009 election, and like Young is a member of the Left.

• Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports Rick Sarre, professor of law and commerce at the University of South Australia, is firming in contention to win Labor preselection for Sturt.

• Soraiya Gharahkhani of the Campbelltown Macarthur Advertiser reports Camden deputy mayor Greg Warren has withdrawn from the Labor preselection race in Macarthur, which leaves Nick Bleasdale and Paul Nunnari.

• Roma Dickins of the Camden Advertiser reports on Pat Farmer’s hopes to keep his political career alive in the state seat of Camden, where he faces stiff opposition from local mayor Chris Patterson. Farmer has lost preselection for his federal seat of Macarthur.

• Stephen Mayne and Graeme Orr discuss party donation disclosures on Radio National’s The National Interest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

885 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 53.5-46.5”

Comments Page 3 of 18
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  1. [I may be mistaken, but I thought you had said you were not coming back to this site because of the lack of intelligent debate here.]

    Link, please?

    You have accused me of any number of things since you lobbed here on PB, Pete, but unfortunately, none of them have been true.

    Are you sure you are not John Howard posting here under the PY screen name?

  2. Am I to take it that some think that Newspoll will be released tonight? Don’t they do that only when Labor is getting thumped?

  4. [ I think Rudd has made a mistake in explaining the public hospital takeover. He’s said that the hospitals are in need of “urgent surgery” but then goes on to say that he’s taking longer than planned because he needs to get it right. ]

    Whatever Rudd has got planned for hospitals had better be good because he looks like having wedged himself and labor.

    The fact that he is *trying* to get a better outcome than the libs really will not wash in an election year. He has to get it right and get results.

    In his favor though is the major increase in funding and Dr training places.

  5. Harry,

    [Don’t they do that only when Labor is getting thumped?]

    Or when they have a decent “Outlier” that favours the Libs. 😉

  6. [Why don’t you ask Rann and see what he has to say about it! 😉

    I can guess his answer would be similar to most PB’ers.]

    He’s told us he hasn’t rooted her on a golf course… and he hasn’t rooted her in his office.

    The only question remaining therefore is where did he root her.

  7. Dave,

    I don’t think Rudd will raise much of a sweat dealing with Abbott’s Health plan.

    [The Federal Government says the Opposition’s plan for community health boards in some public hospitals will not fix the chronic problems with the health system.

    Today Opposition Leader Tony Abbott announced that if he wins the next election he will install local management boards at major public hospitals in New South Wales and Queensland.

    Mr Abbott says local management boards would increase accountability and deliver better services for patients.

    But Health Minister Nicola Roxon says the Opposition’s plan does nothing to address workforce or funding shortages.

    “This is not a solution, this is just an idea from a former health minister who had 12 years in government [and] never took such action, and has come up with a half-baked policy on the run,” she said.

    “He is pretending that this a comprehensive and well thought out plan when it is anything but.”

    Ms Roxon says the idea would only cover two states.

    “It’s not national, it doesn’t eliminate waste, and it doesn’t fund a single extra doctor or nurse or hospital bed,” she said.

    “Ultimately his idea takes no pressure off our hospitals and has no fix for cost-shifting.”]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/02/14/2819143.htm

  10. ‘Mr Rudd (2007) has announced that Labor would invest an extra $2 billion in hospitals.

    He has also announced that he would take over running the country’s 750 public hospitals IF state and territory governments have not agreed to a national reform plan by the middle of 2009.’

    They DID

    Benhmarks in place
    Reforms take a long time , and fine tunes on th way needed
    Options in a takeover varied like

    ‘taking responsibility for hospital outpatient services and community health centres to ease the strain on hospital emergency departments. ,

    to take charge of health services outside of hospitals, along with a 40 per cent stake in public hospitals., to run non-hospital care ‘

  11. [ Are you sure you are not John Howard posting here under the PY screen name?]

    I could be. Might also be Lucifer. Perhaps Robert Mugabe. Then again I might not be.

    [ Link, please? ]

    I wouldn’t bother wasting my time on you. I’ll accept you ave never complained about the lack of intelligent debate on here. It must have been someone else complaining about that.

  13. [ Ron

    Scorp

    We hav proved PY handles truth like HalfTruths]

    Yeay, Ron and it looks like Troothy has climbed down into the gutter together with PY, now.

    [He’s told us he hasn’t rooted her on a golf course… and he hasn’t rooted her in his office.]

    The only question remaining therefore is where did he root her.]

  15. [I’ll accept you ave never complained about the lack of intelligent debate on here.]

    Oh, now “you” are dead wrong on that point. I most certainly did and I would be quite within my rights to do so again now, but I do find your comments extremely amusing and entertaining.

    There’s only rubbish on FTA at the moment so do keep on entertaining the readers please Peter! 😉

  16. #114

    Looks like some Supreme Court judge is going to have to get down into the gutter to finalise the case. Oh the indignity of it all.

  18. Diogenes,

    [And then the media spoke to Chantelois who pointed out that Seven haven’t retracted their affair story and that they aren’t paying any damages.]

    Seven probably asked her for their money back because of all the drama she has caused them.

    That would make “any” non, self respecting, gold digging female angry! 😉

  19. [Now Scorpio can engage in his favourite past-time of conducting intelligent debate.]

    Not tonight PY. I’m conducting it on “your” level tonight! 😉

  20. Scorpio – #118

    [ That would make “any” non, self respecting, gold digging female angry! ]

    You are probably lucky there are no women on PB atm.

    Different era, different attitudes I guess.

  21. From Dutton’s Twitter – and has anyone noted that the launch was at a PRIVATE Hospital ? 🙂

    [peter_dutton

    Thanks to the staff at st vincents – mt and I looked like twins (I am the younger one) – Abbott action on fixing hospitals 4 minutes ago from web ]

  22. ThomasPaine
    Dont know if you found a copper ETF…

    [Respected metals analyst, David Threlkeld, president of Resolved Inc., dropped a real bombshell on the copper market yesterday, when he predicted a crash from the current $2.82/ pound to below the production cost of $1, possibly as early as this year. He is arguing that prices are artificially high because of runaway Chinese speculation and stock piling, which will end imminently. Stockpiles are now bulging with 2 million tons of the red metal, about half of annual industry production. The Middle Kingdom is about to cut imports by half, from 3 million tones to 1.5 million tons this year, to bring them more in line with actual consumption.]

    http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/Today_s_Diary_Entry.php

  23. Diogenes,

    Did you read this one? It seems the SA Libs have a similar problem with costings as do the Federal Libs.

    [THE State Government says there is a $1 billion black hole in the opposition’s proposal to rebuild the Royal Adelaide Hospital on its current site.

    The Rann Labor government plans to build a new $1.7 billion hospital in the city’s west end, with construction to start in 2011 and for the doors to open in 2016.

    Opposition leader Isobel Redmond has said her government would undergo a staged rebuild of the existing hospital, at an estimated cost of $700 million.

    Health Minister John Hill said in a statement today that a detailed analysis of the opposition’s proposal showed their plan was “an unworkable, and unaffordable mess – and would take until 2025 to complete”.

    “SA Health’s detailed analysis of the Liberals’ plan show it will actually cost $1.4 billion just for two new patient buildings – and on top of that it would cost an extra $500 million for basic maintenance and upgrade of the engineering systems, including sewers, water and power,” Mr Hill said.

    “That brings the total cost of the Liberals’ flawed plan to a whopping $1.9 billion – more than the $1.7 billion for a brand new hospital that the Labor government’s building.”]
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/south-australia-state-government-says-1b-black-hole-in-liberals-rah-proposal/story-fn2sdwup-1225830180159

  25. [You are probably lucky there are no women on PB atm.]

    There’s “no” (non, self respecting), gold digging females who post on PB that I am aware, PY!

  30. It strikes me that political interaction in general has become much like the hostilities that pass for debate here. People are edgy, sensitized, aggressive. It is all there: bitterness, ambition, revenge, sensation. It is no wonder the media are trying to up the temperature – and no wonder most people let it all pass by.

  32. scorps

    Both sides of the RAH debate have been disputing each other’s numbers. I don’t trust either’s figures which is the reason I’m an agnostic about the RAH.

    As Getty said, “Your opinions are only as good as your information.” And our information is crap.

  33. # 128

    [ And what do you think vera is – a cow?]
    Although Vera at times makes claim to being a cow – I think that is a bit of poetic licence, so she can fit in with the Dolphin.
    Vera said she was going to bed – and as she hadn’t posted for i while I believed she had done so.

    [ please explain the obvious sexism ]

    You must be from an era where well meaning men were unaware of the impact of their attitudes and the stereotyping of women that they honestly believed in.

  34. Briefly

    #130

    hav had alot of debates , some with bit of fires , with Libs and Greens elsewhere , but still debates

    what is hapening here , is a few tralls , like Bob 123456 , PY and HalfTruths who keep turning this Thread into untruths , baiting and spamming

    may be beter not to reply to them at all 100% , ie deny thems oxoxgens 100%
    may get bored posting to themselves

  35. [PY, I’m a woman. Your point is?]

    Harry, some mothers do have ’em, the likes of PY, Toothy and Bob 1234, now do i include Diog on this list? 😛

  36. That’s a good find, Scorpio. I’ve been interested in the Altona result here in Victoria because despite the problems with the public transport system, and the undoubted escalation of violence, it’s actually been a fairly competent and accountable government.
    I think, for what it’s worth, that the goverment has tried to do too much, i.e., getting the whole state to do what metropolitan systems do.
    It is also my view that many parents have been behaving like the givers of anything and everything their kids want, and there is no responsibility expected of the children.

  37. PY

    It’s not stereotyping women to admit that some women are gold diggers, just as it’s not stereotyping men to admit that some are ruthless bastards.

  38. #Briefly

    The things you speak about I have not observed anywhere in the community…there is no hint of it.

    The only place I have seen that kind of stuff is in here.

  39. [Although Vera at times makes claim to being a cow – I think that is a bit of poetic licence, so she can fit in with the Dolphin]

    You mongrel is only good for pooing on my footpath. What do you think that is – a public toilet?

  41. The only question remaining therefore is where did he root her.

    Been away a few day’s but I must say, I have NEVER seen something like that written here.

    What’s happened?

    I’d kick my teenage son’s arse for writing sh!t like that. What the hell has gone on around here lately?

  43. zoomster

    [ It’s not stereotyping women to admit that some women are gold diggers ]

    It is stereotyping women when such a claim is made without one scintilla of evidence, except that the person is a women. Indeed that is the very definition of stereotyping.

  46. PY
    like zoomster, I’d suggest you try having relationships beyond your wee, cute doggie. She’s no doubt a sweetie, but she ain’t a human, and it’s humans you’re trying to engage with here on PB. Aren’t you?

  49. Ron @ 134, you are right, of course. Lately I have been a model of temperance, resisting all provocation by the Lib flunkies, HTT & PY. But sometimes I do give in….I confess.

  50. I had a bit of a chuckle when I read this!

    [THE polls suggest a comeback and now the punters are starting to see value in the straight-talking Tony Abbott.

    Bookies say the 2010 federal election is now shaping up as a contest, with 80 per cent of recent bets backing the new Liberal Leader against Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

    Mr Rudd is still odds-on favourite, returning just $1.20 from Centrebet if he stays in The Lodge.

    But the Coalition under Mr Abbot has tightened to $3.85 – the first time it has been under $4 in more than a year.

    The betting market rally follows several polls suggesting a modest turnaround in political fortunes.

    The last Newspoll saw the Coalition draw equal to Labor on the primary vote in its best result since the 2007 election.]
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/big-bets-on-rudd-versus-abbott/story-e6frf7l6-1225830252182

    But I had an even bigger one when I got a bit further down into the piece! Lib supporters, the last of the big spenders.

    Two bets equal to what Troothy makes in a day but still most of the “big” money is on Labor. When the polls go southwards again for the Coalition, these two spendthrifts will regret being so impulsive, I’ll bet! 😉

    [Centrebet’s Neil Evans said the agency had been forced to reassess its prices after several big bets in recent days.

    One punter wagered $10,000 on Mr Abbott at $4.25, and another invested $5000 at $4.

    “Of the last 50 bets of any amount that have been laid, nearly 80 per cent is for the Coalition,” Mr Evans said.

    “It’s the first crucial sign the Coalition is getting right back into the battle after the Labor government had dominated with punters for two years.”

    He said Centrebet was holding about $160,000 on the election contest, with about 75 per cent on Labor to win.]

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