Nielsen: 54-46

The latest Nielsen poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, down from 56-44 in November. The Coalition is up four points on the primary vote to 41 per cent, with Labor steady on 42 per cent (no figure is provided for the Greens as far as I can see). The Prime Minister’s personal ratings have taken a hit, his approval rating down six to 60 per cent and disapproval up four to 33 per cent. The poll is the first since Tony Abbott became Liberal leader, and finds him with 44 per cent approval and 41 per cent disapproval. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 58-31, compared with 67-21 in the twilight of Turnbull’s leadership. The sample size was 1400. Elsewhere:

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Paul Nicolaou, the Liberal Party fundraiser who failed to retain John Brogden’s old seat of Pittwater at a 2006 by-election, will seek preselection for the state upper house. Also in the hunt for the three “at large” positions on the Liberal ticket (the remaining places are selected on a regional basis) are moderate incumbent Catherine Cusack; Peter Phelps, former chief-of-staff to defeated Eden-Monaro MP Gary Nairn (whose alleged political smarts once led him to compare Nairn’s Labor opponent, war hero Mike Kelly, to a Nazi concentration camp guard); Natasha MacLaren-Jones, Right faction state party vice-president and former staffer to Senator Helen Coonan; Dai Le, a former Radio National producer who ran in Cabramatta at the 2008 by-election held after the departure of Reba Meagher; Pat Daley, a former Salvation Army spokesman; and Frank Oliveri, a Fairfield councillor said to be backed by David Clarke. They might yet be joined by Clarke himself if he proves unable to retain his existing position as the candidate representing north-western Sydney. Clarke hopes to retain that position through a deal in which he will back Cusack in exchange for support from moderates. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Clarke’s foes in the Alex Hawke camp claim he could secure as few as 30 of the available 90 votes, with many moderates allegedly refusing to fall in as directed behind Clarke. As well as the Hawke-backed David Elliott, the position will be contested by “Robyn Preston, a Hills councillor, Tony Issa, a Parramatta councillor, and Nick Tyrrell, a Blacktown councillor”.

• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Robyn Parker, Liberal state upper house member and factional moderate, will contest preselection for the Labor-held lower house seat of Maitland after recognising she will be unable to retain her existing position. While it was reported last year that the way had been smoothed for her to win the Maitland nomination through the amendment of the preselection timetable, Ian Kirkwood of the Newcastle Herald reports she faces rival contenders in Maitland councillors Bob Geoghegan and Stephen Mudd and Newcastle councillor Brad Luke. The issue will be decided by 30 local branch members and eight head office representatives on Saturday, February 21.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports three candidates have confirmed they will put their names forward for Labor preselection in Macarthur: Nick Bleasdale, the candidate in 2007, Paul Nunnari, former wheelchair athlete and adviser to state MP Graham West, and Greg Warren, the deputy mayor of Camden. Hughes is said by Coorey to be claimed by the Right, factional home to candidates Greg Holland and Brent Thomas, but the Left might yet seek to upset the Right’s applecart by putting forward Liverpool mayor Wendy Waller. Both have been made winnable by redistribution and the impending departure of their Liberal members, Danna Vale and Pat Farmer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,247 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46”

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  5. Briefly

    are you delusional

    what is your name and address

    this is your last chance (of many last chances)

    Another forum will decide your fate

    ps Do you know where Bubbles blew off to

    pps does Bo ever get to hump hope

    ppps Dont stand in my shadow

    😉

  13. OBama has made a few rookie mistakes, they all do. And has been a bit to optimistic about dealing with the Republicans. And has made one silly comment supporting bankers pays.

    But in all being President in the USA doesn’t give you much power to pass laws, in fact zero power almost considering the below.

    At a time when the country really does need the President to govern and implement his laws…… the GOP turn traitor on their country.

    [Senate Republicans: Filibuster everything to win in November?

    WASHINGTON — Senate Republicans are using the filibuster to limit and often derail Democrats’ initiatives, paralyzing the Senate and making it nearly impossible to accomplish even the most routine matters.]

    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/84487.html

  17. This is not a smart move by Papandreou

    Already according to a poll 70% of the German people don’t want the govt to bailout Greece.

    [Already facing serious difficulties – both internal and with regard to its EU partners (see our longer essay in Saturday’s WSJ) – Greece’s predicament just became substantially worse.

    Speaking on national television this evening, the Greek Prime Minister – George Papandreou – lashed out at the European Union (presumably meaning mostly Germany) for creating a “psychology of looming collapse which could be self-fulfilling.” He also implied that Greece was being treated, in some senses, like a “lab animal.”]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-johnson/greece-derails-is-europe_b_461090.html

  19. The Democrats are stuffed because they are gutless and find it to actually support the Democrat POTUS.

    And for fs what about thinking about the unemployed.

    [The Rattled State of Democrats
    Worried that they were going to be skewered for pushing a jobs bill that was stuffed with business tax breaks and pork, Senator Harry Reid, the majority leader, pulled the plug Thursday on a rare bipartisan proposal, gambling both with the party’s best chance of posting a needed legislative win as well as with President Obama’s new push for cross-party cooperation.
    ]
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/14/us/politics/14memo.html?hp

    The Left of politics always seem so timid and too self conscious, lacking the nasty streak the Conservatives always have. You elect them to govern but they are too scared to.

  20. Old folks, whose decrepit bodies mean they are unable to go out and work, and whose life savings are tied up in the stock market, will be terrified by Pravdas predictions:-
    Experts are expecting a recession in China along with a new wave of the economic crisis. They say that the next two years may become critical for both China and the global economy. The growth of the Chinese GPD is caused by financial bubbles that can burst and bring the country into a recession followed by a global economic crisis
    China’s Huge Economic Bubble To Trigger Another Major World Crisis .

    Meanwhile, the younger generation will continue to think about the things that really matter.

  21. The volatility of markets and uncertainty of the future worth of a pension fund is one aspect that will make it difficult for Govt to play around with existing Superannuation tax treatment.

    Govt might look at all the potential tax money given up to Superannuation but the alternative is people giving up on Super and putting the onus back onto a govt pension.

    I don’t know what the differential is but if it means people being self funded in retirement govt should be happy and encourage it.

  22. I posted my totally non-professional thoughts here on that:

    http://ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=6783

    I am starting to come to the opinion that we may well be only part way through the market fall and not yet in a recovery phase. And there are a number of commentators out there that suggest there will be some further significant downward correction or worse to come.

    I also posted a link regarding China’s asset bubble and vast over capacity. But I don’t think it is a problem for China so much, they have huge reserves and the govt god like powers to deal with issues. It is the countries that depend on China’s growth that will be affected.

  23. BLOGGERS

    GUS , DARIO , FRANK and BRIEFY exposed PY DELIB CHANGING Michelle Grattans article

    SINCE THEN , PY has spammed almost 2 pages of Thread to camoflage ,
    hoping Posters wont go back a whole 2 pages of tread posts

    Those intersted can go back to page 78 or #3885 , by passing PY’s spamming ,
    or earlier if wish (for posts on othr subjects that bloggers posted)

  24. A very Happy Chinese New Year to ALL

    – It’s the Year of the TIGAR. They will roar, meow, meow, meow and then Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. This is for them, and my Amigo Vera.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXkUpXtsJqU

    We dolphins just wanna have fun. Just got too many Tigaresses in my life – – He’s looking at you, kid:

    until then he’ll be just a Solitary Man.

  25. With the devastating revelation that Conroy skiied with someone who has something to do with the area his department regulates, it is time that I turned myself in.

    You see, dear bludgers, several years ago Steve Bracks visited this area after a disaster and I gave him a pot of homemade blackberry jam.

    A few days later, he gave our local community $2 million in disaster relief funding.

    I have always joked that that demonstrates the worth on my blackberry jam, but now I realise the full imiplications of my actions: I bribed the Premier.

    Shorter Michelle Grattan: none of those bastards will leak to me, how I am supposed to get stories?

  27. OK, a while since I looked at the Oz, forgot how entertaining it is.

    Recommend this one for sheer comedic value:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/pyne-stands-tall-as-coalition-emerges-from-the-wilderness/story-e6frg6zo-1225830044267

    With quotes such as:

    [Indeed with the exception of Abbott and his increasingly helpful deputy, Julie Bishop, Pyne is one of the best performers in the present opposition.]

    [Abbott did not ignore the undeniable hits Pyne has had on his opposite number, Julia Gillard]

    The author is purportedly Ross Fitzgerald, but I think he outsourced this one to Pyne’s mum.

  28. ThomasPaine 3963

    [Senate Republicans are using the filibuster to limit and often derail Democrats’ initiatives, paralyzing the Senate and making it nearly impossible to accomplish even the most routine matters.]

    Which is probably bad for the economy in terms of public leaqdership should further stimulus, regulatory change etc, be required

  29. zoomster

    The author is purportedly Ross Fitzgerald, but I think he outsourced this one to Pyne’s mum.

    Nyaah! Ross, an historian & a Qlder, cheers for the Libs. So does Scott Prasser. Has been since way back eg before the 1983 Lib Nat split. Really stuck the ice pick into the Nats during the Moonlight State Era (didn’t they all); though a big bouquet for his support of “politically incorrect” cops who stayed clean during the Joh-Lewis-Lane horror stretch

    Old Qld Lib hate list: Top, Nats; Runner up, ALP. Greens? Ignore. (Democrats used to be “a worry”)

  30. PY

    After reading the post Ron linked to (your 3885) and the altered text by yourself (inserting “lies” for “lines”, I think you need to apologise if it was an innocent mistake. Otherwise there is good reason for the rest of us not to trust what you say after that. Not clever.

    As for the economics, I have two views:

    On Greece, I don’t blame the Germans and others for not wanting to bail them out. There was always doubt about them joining the Euro zone and they have not kept their promises. Some of their economic reporting appears to be deliberate fraud, massaging figures to fit within EC benchmarks. Even now, with their country on the line, they still have not made major reforms, only more promises. This also has other political ramifications. Why should Turkey be kept out if the Greeks are allowed to remain in. Arguably Turkey has made more effort at legal and economic reform to join the EC than Greece has. They will now understandaly resent any future rejection.

    On China, I think those projecting doom and gloom should calm down. China still has a lot of growing to do. We are talking about a country shifting one billion people to an industrialised standard of living. It took Japan 50 years to do that for 100 million. China’s growth may go through short term halts, even a few bubbles, but won’t stop within my lifetime. Read the Henry review or some Treasury analytical speeches for some salient graphs and historical comparisons with Japanese and Korean growth. Our risk is not that China will stop, but that we might fail to equip ourselves to keep up.

  31. Two Coalition interviews two weeks in a row on Insiders? I won’t be watching today.
    At least they could pretend not to be biased.

  32. [ After reading the post Ron linked to (your 3885) and the altered text by yourself (inserting “lies” for “lines”, I think you need to apologise if it was an innocent mistake. Otherwise there is good reason for the rest of us not to trust what you say after that. Not clever.]

    Socs, PY has had what, over 5 hours to correct his post if it was an innocent mistake.

    No clarification has been posted and that really is the answer. He has been caught out falsifying grattens article in order to suit his own agenda.

    Its game set and match for PY.

  33. Rudd is in trouble. Josh Gordon in todays Age tells us that Abbott has rattled Rudd, the coalition has been united quickly, the election is a real contest, Abbott was compared to Latham but is no longer- he has been disciplined. The government will be blamed for higher interest rates. Yes, no mention of the Garrett overreaction, the choice of Barnaby, the CC flipflopping.

    Rudd is in trouble in the sense that Abbott is getting and will continue to get a dream run in MSM. Any government issue is going to blown up, and opposition shortcomings buried. Rudd is not and will not be forgiven for toppling their King Howard.

  35. [Rudd is in trouble. Josh Gordon in todays Age tells us that Abbott has rattled Rudd, the coalition has been united quickly, the election is a real contest, Abbott was compared to Latham but is no longer- he has been disciplined. The government will be blamed for higher interest rates. Yes, no mention of the Garrett overreaction, the choice of Barnaby, the CC flipflopping.

    Rudd is in trouble in the sense that Abbott is getting and will continue to get a dream run in MSM. Any government issue is going to blown up, and opposition shortcomings buried. Rudd is not and will not be forgiven for toppling their King Howard.]

    Paranoid much?

  37. Socrates
    [ After reading the post Ron linked to (your 3885) and the altered text by yourself (inserting “lies” for “lines”, I think you need to apologise if it was an innocent mistake. ]

    I have not explained how that error came about for this reason –
    1. The experts on here had already decided (without asking) that I had deliberately altered the qote.
    2. The experts on here had already decided that I had cut and paste from the original article and then went back over it and changed the word.
    3. The experts on here had already decided that I had deliberately told a lie.

    After posting my original article and returning to the pages I saw all the posts setting out as “fact” the above. Acoordingly, I deliberately chose not to offer an explanation about something by which stage had become a well established dogma, but rather to test whether those people expressing those known “facts” had even thought about the issues involved. Sadly their answers did not reveal much except to the extent of laughing at me by one person, and another who disclosed his thought processes:-
    1. You cut and paste.
    2. You then went back and deliberately altered the word.

    As that person was wrong – but had expressed his defamatory statements (as had the others) in such strong terms it was apparent to me that any explanation I gave as to how the error came about would not change their minds, nor would it abate the relentless defamatory remarks. Accordingly, I chose simply to pose a few questions, request a withdrawal of the remarks and take appropriate screen shots.

    I formed the view the accusers would not accept anything I said. To explain how the error occurred would be met with the same prejudged attitude. Further, I also formed the view, when proven wrong, the accusers would not apologise.

    However, it is clear you have at least an open mind – so I will explain.

    That quote was not a cut and paste job. It was typed by me (transposed) from the original article – and clearly incorrectly – by me typing it directly into the computer. Obviously, I did not press the “n” hard enough in the word “lines”. I did not pick up the error until numerous posts with the defamatory comments. I did not deliberately type in the word ‘lies” as was suggested, nor did I intend to us e that word.

    That error has been unfortunate – because it converted what I thought was a pretty good joke (that is backbenchers repeating lines – like welded ons here repeating lines) – into a completety different thing.

    Now for the apologies:
    1. The first and biggest apology goes to Michelle Gratten for my inadvertent misquoting of her. It goes to show how important a mere letter may be – and I apologise for my sloppy typing.
    2. To any reader of PB who relied on the misquote without opening the link below – I also apologise.

    I don’t expect this post will alter the set in concrete views of some posters on here. So be it.

  39. [That error has been unfortunate – because it converted what I thought was a pretty good joke (that is backbenchers repeating lines – like welded ons here repeating lines) – into a completety different thing.]
    Gave the chip on the shoulder a scratch on the way through I see.

  42. Finally when forced to, PY has come up with a story. Its taken him almost 8 hours.

    There is a need to review his story with the way he has posted here previously and the way he goes about judging others.

    If he is judged by the way he judges others, he is in big trouble.

  45. GB, I no longer watch Insiders, after never missing an episode. My Sunday mornings are now so much better!!

    Its patently clear that the MSM mostly hate Rudd, and will do all they can to maximise the Coalition vote. Now I dont think that means the coalition win, but they’ll do much better than they should do

  46. Bligh’s approval rating is 28% with a disapproval rating of 64%. It looks like she’s making some tough responsible decisions early in the election cycle.

  47. Dave

    [Finally when forced to, PY has come up with a story. Its taken him almost 8 hours.
    There is a need to review his story with the way he has posted here previously and the way he goes about judging others.
    If he is judged by the way he judges others, he is in big trouble. ]

    Judge me as you like. However, I challenge you to find one post where I have ever accused anyone on PM of deliberately altering a quote or called them a liar (unless I was in a position to prove it).

  48. [Its patently clear that the MSM mostly hate Rudd, and will do all they can to maximise the Coalition vote. Now I dont think that means the coalition win, but they’ll do much better than they should do]
    I must say it doesn’t have to be a thrashing for me to be happy on election night. As long as they get back I’ll be delighted.

  49. [Bligh’s approval rating is 28% with a disapproval rating of 64%. It looks like she’s making some tough responsible decisions early in the election cycle.]

    She’s stepping in front of a moving bus?

  50. [Bligh’s approval rating is 28% with a disapproval rating of 64%. It looks like she’s making some tough responsible decisions early in the election cycle.]
    I don’t know whether she’ll win the next election or not but I believe these figures are the result of her removing the petrol subsidy.
    It is interesting though that without an election in sight a Sunday paper is regularly running a local poll.

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