The latest Nielsen poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, down from 56-44 in November. The Coalition is up four points on the primary vote to 41 per cent, with Labor steady on 42 per cent (no figure is provided for the Greens as far as I can see). The Prime Minister’s personal ratings have taken a hit, his approval rating down six to 60 per cent and disapproval up four to 33 per cent. The poll is the first since Tony Abbott became Liberal leader, and finds him with 44 per cent approval and 41 per cent disapproval. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 58-31, compared with 67-21 in the twilight of Turnbull’s leadership. The sample size was 1400. Elsewhere:
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Paul Nicolaou, the Liberal Party fundraiser who failed to retain John Brogden’s old seat of Pittwater at a 2006 by-election, will seek preselection for the state upper house. Also in the hunt for the three “at large” positions on the Liberal ticket (the remaining places are selected on a regional basis) are moderate incumbent Catherine Cusack; Peter Phelps, former chief-of-staff to defeated Eden-Monaro MP Gary Nairn (whose alleged political smarts once led him to compare Nairn’s Labor opponent, war hero Mike Kelly, to a Nazi concentration camp guard); Natasha MacLaren-Jones, Right faction state party vice-president and former staffer to Senator Helen Coonan; Dai Le, a former Radio National producer who ran in Cabramatta at the 2008 by-election held after the departure of Reba Meagher; Pat Daley, a former Salvation Army spokesman; and Frank Oliveri, a Fairfield councillor said to be backed by David Clarke. They might yet be joined by Clarke himself if he proves unable to retain his existing position as the candidate representing north-western Sydney. Clarke hopes to retain that position through a deal in which he will back Cusack in exchange for support from moderates. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Clarke’s foes in the Alex Hawke camp claim he could secure as few as 30 of the available 90 votes, with many moderates allegedly refusing to fall in as directed behind Clarke. As well as the Hawke-backed David Elliott, the position will be contested by “Robyn Preston, a Hills councillor, Tony Issa, a Parramatta councillor, and Nick Tyrrell, a Blacktown councillor”.
• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Robyn Parker, Liberal state upper house member and factional moderate, will contest preselection for the Labor-held lower house seat of Maitland after recognising she will be unable to retain her existing position. While it was reported last year that the way had been smoothed for her to win the Maitland nomination through the amendment of the preselection timetable, Ian Kirkwood of the Newcastle Herald reports she faces rival contenders in Maitland councillors Bob Geoghegan and Stephen Mudd and Newcastle councillor Brad Luke. The issue will be decided by 30 local branch members and eight head office representatives on Saturday, February 21.
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports three candidates have confirmed they will put their names forward for Labor preselection in Macarthur: Nick Bleasdale, the candidate in 2007, Paul Nunnari, former wheelchair athlete and adviser to state MP Graham West, and Greg Warren, the deputy mayor of Camden. Hughes is said by Coorey to be claimed by the Right, factional home to candidates Greg Holland and Brent Thomas, but the Left might yet seek to upset the Right’s applecart by putting forward Liverpool mayor Wendy Waller. Both have been made winnable by redistribution and the impending departure of their Liberal members, Danna Vale and Pat Farmer.
Ah, HTT, that Labor voting son of a gun.
Well, Insiders was worth it today, with the ‘Talking Pictures’ segment – the guest cartoonist went to school with Abbott and recounted how Abbott used to throw oranges at him.
And the snippet of Greg Hunt suddenly made me realise who he reminds me of – Pitt the Younger from Blackadder. I now expect him to burst into poetry and confess that he feels all lonely and depressed.
Pyne was his usual unimpressive self, ended up contradicting his whole defence of Barnaby by signing off with a comment on the lines of Barnaby will improve, eventually.
Bary Bruce – #4000
[ It is interesting though that without an election in sight a Sunday paper is regularly running a local poll. ]
I am wondering if it is more than interesting. Could be a part of a conspiracy.
Bligh seems to be hostage to conservative economic advice from Treasury and the opinion of the dubious ratings agencies. Credible economists have disputed her asset selloff strategy. Removing the problematic 8c fuel subsidy was an unpopular move. And, with more than 2 years to the next election, I’m sure those being polled are only focusing on current negatives rather than contemplating the alternative being offered by the LNP.
Dio 3994
I hadn’t seen the Qld poll but am not entirely surprised. I was back in Brisbane a few weeks ago and was staggered by the amount of traffic congestion – as bad as anywhere in Sydney. I know as a transport planner I take more notice of such things than most, but even so, the loss in time and quality of life for residents must be having an impact. I felt some frustration at this, because I (amoung others) had done some work on transport investment needs in Brisbane some years ago that got largely ignored. Politicians liek boasting that their city is growing by 50,000 people a year, but don’t like facing up to the unpopular decisions this entails.
Again I may be biased but, if current trends continue, we are going to have to do something serious about long term transport planning and public transport investment in particular if our cities do not all end up like Brisbane now. The Henry review projeects Sydney and Melbourne to hit 7 million by 2049 and Brisbane 5 million. at that point the usual excuses we make as to why we can’t afford European or Asian standard publci transprot won’t wash. Sydney then will be larger than San Francisco, and it will either sprawl out Los Angeles style with freeways everywhere, or require the rail network to finaly be fixed. the same is true for Melbourne and Brisbane. Adelaide is “only” headed for 2 million, but that wil still take major road and rail upgrades. Perth is in the best shape thanks to Alannah McTiernan’s efforts, but they will still have to continue with more major rail upgrades to keep up; they will have 4 million.
Please note I am not implying support for large population growth. I’d rather see restraint and force industry to train locals. But even the ABS “Low” population projections are staggering. The simple fact is that the mining boom, which won’t stop, is creating lots of jobs and that attracts people. There is a need for a fundamental shift in investment priority. They are not my field but I’m sure the same is true for provision of health and education services.
[Ah, HTT, that Labor voting son of a gun.]
Actually GB, I think that is one vote you will have to write off 😉
It’s Time
Are a lot of these policies motivated by Bligh’s wish to get back Qld’s AAA rating?
[I hadn’t seen the Qld poll but am not entirely surprised. I was back in Brisbane a few weeks ago and was staggered by the amount of traffic congestion – as bad as anywhere in Sydney. I know as a transport planner I take more notice of such things than most, but even so, the loss in time and quality of life for residents must be having an impact.]
Where specifically? Was it impacted by the infrastructure upgrades which are currently being built?
[Bary Bruce – #4000]
4003 – Oh dear another spelling mistake Peter. You are having trouble.
[If anyone watches Pyne on Insiders in full, please summarize his interview. I can’t stand to watch the twit.]
AGoodLurk – usual PrissyPyne – he said Barnaby is such a good bloke and Pyne’s electorate loves what he says about debt, even the Labor part of the electorate. The rest was the usual Govt. bashing and Liberal spin.
Cassidy did refer to Abbott’s piece that’s been previously linked on PB re employers and employees taking responsibility for the workplace themselves. Pyne brushed that aside.
Cassidy talked about ministerial responsibility and said the holding of Ministers accountable PREDATES the Howard years. Pyne took a bit of a gulp at that one but just said ‘putting that aside …..” and went on to say Garrett should go. So anything Howard ministers did is absolutely a no go zone because they were all so pure apparently.
Mike Bower’ segment was good – cartoon drawings were ironed which was funny.
Kastilides did the Voxpop bit with Aust Sceptics who made some good points about climate change sceptics who are just deniers. They are not – they accept the science in large part.
Rudd got a really bad run – especially re the kid’s Q&A. They did not show the segment where the kids asked about tolerance in the community and for which they heavily applauded Rudd. Pyne mentioned it so they will be scouring the kids to give them what they want.
George Megalogenis made a terrific point. Said that the MSM are enjoying Abbott too much and are not questioning enough. Said Joyce is like a journalist and just says anything that comes into his head – a really good observation. Doesn’t matter whether it is factual or not just say or write it.
I thought they were fair about Peter Garrett.
Socrates
Are any of those cities considering having an underground like London, Paris etc?
[I don’t know whether she’ll win the next election or not but I believe these figures are the result of her removing the petrol subsidy.]
YA THINK?!?
That and the 20% increase in Rego’s weeks after winning the election(no mention prior to the election of this) has really given people the shits.
She’s a gonner.
[Are a lot of these policies motivated by Bligh’s wish to get back Qld’s AAA rating?]
That is the only motivation. Bligh has wimped out. She was not prepared to wait for the economy to rebound and State revenues to pick up again or go into debt for the time necessary. I suspect that most of the sales will not go through but she will not completely undo the damage which she has done to her government.
[YA THINK?!?
That and the 20% increase in Rego’s weeks after winning the election(no mention prior to the election of this) has really given people the shits.
She’s a gonner.]
Well, others in the community of yokels up there have been putting it down to other things Mr, Labor Voter.
Good. The CPRS Senate negotiations are still alive.
[The federal government is continuing to negotiate with all sides of politics in a bid to have its emissions trading scheme passed, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says.
Mr Rudd acknowledged there was a long way to go before Labor’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, passed by the lower house for a third time earlier this month, would be put to a final vote again.
“It goes now to the Senate (where) we are engaged in continued discussions with senators from all parties, including the Greens,” he told Network Ten on Sunday.]
Peter Hartcher and I are watching closely, hoping Rudd starts the old “crash through” approach on the issue with the Libs and the othe rsceptics. 😆
I hope Prof Garnaut was at the negotiating table in spirit too.
Truth be known Qld’s Labor government was probably for the high jump anyway. Governments have a shelf life of around 10 years here in Australia these days. Most Labor governments are coming up or have surpassed that mark by a couple of years.
Link for #4015:
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/ets-talks-continue-with-senators-rudd-20100214-nywu.html
jv
I saw Penny Wong yesterday in town. I really felt like going up to her and asking if there was any chance Labor and the Greens would come up with something.
Labor’s problem is not just with the Greens. After them you need to convince two more.
JV = 4015
Very welcome news.
However, I suspect many of the rusted ons will be very upset. The mantra of it’s a waste of time negotiating with the Greens looks like it will need to be changed.
Either tht, or Rudd’s approval rating will take a dive in the next poll.
Of course there is a chance Tony will get in and the opportunity for an ETS will have passed us by. We will end up with Workchoices Mark 2 though.
[However, I suspect many of the rusted ons will be very upset]
Let’s just give that chip on the shoulder another scratch. There, that’s better.
Peter Young #3961
Trust the CM (+Madonna) to bash Bligh, commission a galaxy poll & come up with the same story twice. Last time was 10 days after state election was called (23/02/09) and 16 before Bligh won 51 of the 89 seats (the LNP won 34)
Let’s try two Galaxy Polls before 2009’s state election:
26/02/09: Galaxy poll shows Queensland state election split 50:50
05/02/09 LNP leads ALP in Queensland election, Galaxy poll finds
One comment: The Bligh government is so out of touch, it’s only worried about winning in SE QLD
Electoral Commission of Qld: Election 21/03/2009’s results? ALP 51, LNP 34, other 4 So the LNP ended up 17 seats behind the ALP!
Qld’s electoral dynamic, since the gerrymander was abolished & an independent electoral commission installed is, “The election is won or lost in the SE corner”, and SEQ doesn’t vote Nat. The rest of the state doesn’t vote Liberal.
I’ve been told (in the Libs’ case, by one who would know) that private polling (& other research) by ALP & what remains of the Libs – the sort that looks at key voter-swaying issues – does not agree with today’s Galaxy poll, any more than it did in Election 09.
Note that repetitive hospital scandals the CM adores are in regional hospitals, mainly Bundaberg, an LNP seat site of almost all scandals & Cairns where the problems are overcrowding, staff shortages & patients being “bumped” to other regional hospitals; not malpractice (quite the opposite). Cairns – with its 10.96% Green vote, bigger Greenie/ Environmental activist population & significant Aboriginal & Islander population, + Qld’s “Op-pref” voting and very few CM readers (Regional press is more balanced, though still R-leaning) – is unlikely to vote LNP.
The next Qld state election is due around Easter 2012. The SE water grid is finished. The Children’s Hospital (a Bris Northside issue in 09) has died. Apart from staffing & building issues, there are no hospital medical issues; quite the opposite, as it has international cutting-edge centres in cancer (inc Ian Frazer at the PA) and neurosurgery (inc spinal). By 2012 problem most dusty-noisy road-building (esp Airport link) will be finished. Women voters are very proBligh, and there’s an extensive antiCM’s & Madonna King’s “Bullying Bligh” network.
Currently, not even LNP optimists can see Bligh losing Qld’s SE.
BH
I know you don’t get free to air so you wouldn’t have seen the Aboriginal All Stars league game on 9 last night.
An Aboriginal Lady sang the national anthem and then accompanied by Aunt someone, the Aboriginal elder representing the local people, mentioned the 2nd anniversery of the Rudd apology to massive cheers. (26.000+ of them 😉 )
At halftime Kev and one of the Aboriginal ex players who helped organise it spoke with Gus Gould.
Kev was his normal humble self and when given praise for putting up the money and supporting the event he deflected the praise away to others.
He came accross really well, I felt like giving the tellie a hug 😉
At the presentation to the winners he stayed away, Maclin and Arbib represented the govt.
I said to OH “if it had been Howard he would have made sure he was on stage hogging the spotlight like he did at the Grandfinals (kev don;t do that either)
OH said,”If Howard was still in an event like this would never have taken place”
He don’t talk much about politics but he comes out with a gem now and then.
OzPolTragic – #4023
Gary Bruce has suggested the regular polling by a media organisation so far out from a election is interesting. I have suggested it is probably part of a conspiracy.
Do you have any views on that.
[Truth be known Qld’s Labor government was probably for the high jump anyway. Governments have a shelf life of around 10 years here in Australia these days. Most Labor governments are coming up or have surpassed that mark by a couple of years.]
From this, to celebrating 12% 2PP negative swings from a position of incumbency, it appears PB would be in massive celebratory uproar if Labor lost government in every parliament in Australia.
*scratches head*
Up where the wires broke
The pine wood and the hardwood oak
Foil Insulation and batt covered lights
Steam in forty five degrees
The time has come
To say fair’s fair
To pay the rent
To pay our share
The time has come
A fact’s a fact
It’s time to admit
That we’ve screwed up
How can we dance when our earth wires shorting
How do we sleep while our roofs are burning
How can we dance when our earth wires shorting
How do we sleep while our roofs are burning
The time has come
To say fair’s fair
To pay the rent, now
To pay our share
Diogenes
[I really felt like going up to her and asking if there was any chance Labor and the Greens would come up with something.]
Understandable – you should have. But what is she doing wandering around Adelaide, far from the centre of the action? No offense to Adelaide, but she should be holed up in a secret conference room in the old section of Canberra, wearing a green lightshade, sleeves rolled up as far as Bruce Springsteen’s, hammering out the CPRS of the century. 😆
Its Time
I saw severe traffic congestion in several suburbs – the CBD plus Chermside, St Lucia, Toowong, Indooroopily to name a few. I was delayed on the Gateway Arterial at Deagon (north side; well out) at 6.30AM on the way to the airport. (That road will take major work to fix – expensive). The CBD is understandable but the rest are NOT near the construction sites. No doubt things will improve when the tunnel and Gateway Upgrade projects are completed, but they will not alter the outer suburban situation. Brisbane is a 2 million city, still relying on the PT network of a 1 million city. A lot of (good) work is udnerway, but it started 5 years too late.
Dio 4011
As for undergrounds, I hope NOT, though you ask a good question! Unless you have Tokyo, Hong Kong or New York property values, or a colonial empire to pay for them, undergroudns are rarely a cost effective solution. Even in Paris and London, most of the PT demand is shifted on surface rail networks.
The answer requires a lot of complex study, so I don’t wish to sound too glib. But overall, tunnels are very expensive forms of infrastructure. If a road costs $1 million, it might cost $2 million on a bridge or $5 million in a tunnel. This is true for roads and rail systems. The real answer is to plan properly and set aside transport corridors for later construction of the infrastructure when the demand rises. It is much cheaper and you can afford to do it properly. Perth is a good example of getting it right – they set aside extra space for rail in the median when they built their freeways. (This is why NW Sydney is such a disaster – the State refused to do the needed corridor preservation when developments were approved.)
Regardless of whether road or rail is the answer, most of the successful transport projects delivered in recent years were in corridors preserved years or even decades earlier. Eg Perth Mandurah rail, EastLink (corridor preserved in the 50s!), Brisbane SET Busway (spare freeway corridor) and M7. Even the Adelaide O Bahn was built in an intended freeway corridor.
Of course underground rail may be needed in the CBD, but that is only a small part of the network. Tunneling costs at least $200 million/km for twin tube road or rail. Most of our cities have rail networks of over 100 track km. Putting them all underground is very costly. There is no gain in capacity, and accessibility is reduced.
#4028 Er, no significance in Penny’s ‘green’ lightshade. They just used to be mostly that colour in the old days, from memory 😆
No surprise here given what we know of our resident dolphin. Dolphins are ranked number 1 as the most promiscuous animal.
We probably won’t be hearing much from Finns because he no doubt has a very full Valentine’s Day calendar. :kiss:
[Dolphins are known for their playful nature and happy dispositions. It’s no wonder they’re so cheerful; they mate several times a day. Although the reproductive act is short, dolphins also engage in a variety of sexual behaviors simply for pleasure. Dolphins have hetero and homosexual partners and will sometimes behave sexually towards other whale and dolphin sub-species, resulting in fertile hybrids like the Wolphin. Occasionally, dolphins behave sexually towards other animals, including human beings.]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/13/the-most-promiscuous-anim_n_450017.html?slidenumber=%2Bnb7qg1uCSQ%3D&slideshow#slide_image
Let’s see. Altona is in Victoria and Bligh is in Qld. Hmm. No head need be scatched. Two different places with different sets of circumstances. No head scratching needed, bob/Peter, which ever personality it is.
OH said,”If Howard was still in an event like this would never have taken place”
He don’t talk much about politics but he comes out with a gem now and then.]
He sounds exactly like mine. And he’s right about Howard. How can we ever forget that awful World Cup ceremony when the Poms won the rugby and Howard glumly made the presentation. I felt embarrassed to be an Aussie that night. I’ll see if the match is on Fox this week. Have just had the footy channels switched back on for the season.
After Insiders’ bashing of the ‘fake’ Rudd I needed your comment and also Frank’s youtube link of the WA Telethon. Kev is very natural when meeting people. It’s just the ‘fake’ journalists that he likes to keep away from and I don’t blame him.
When was the last time they wrote a piece about anything good that’s being done. It’s easier to write the Oppn lines I guess.
Dio
Sorry for the diatribe above. IS houdl have said we need to overhaul our rail systems with european standards of track geometry, signalling, rolling stock and frequency to move large amounts of people, similar ot the best European and Asian systems. Undergrounding should only be done at the terminal points in the CBD. For the best examples of PT systems, don’t go to London or Paris. Look at places like Munich, Vienna, Strasbourg, Toronto or Singapore.
Finns
A very Happy Chinese New Year to you too!
You got a great set of pegs there, you put the “Tap Dogs” to shame with your dancing :kiss:
I even saw your pole in the corner! 😀 :kiss:
[Gary Bruce has suggested the regular polling by a media organisation so far out from a election is interesting. I have suggested it is probably part of a conspiracy.
Do you have any views on that.]
It’s good to know you’re the conspiracy theory nut here and not me Peter (or is it bob?).
Socrates@4034:
[For the best examples of PT systems, don’t go to London or Paris. Look at places like Munich, Vienna, Strasbourg, Toronto or Singapore.]
How would you rate Montreal? When I was there more than forty years ago it was great.
Socrates
I was particularly wondering about underground for the city square mile and perhaps North Adelaide but at $200M per km it looks too expensive. If we want to build up the city centre for apartments and avoid sprawl, it would be something to look at as the inexpensive land around the south western CBD could become more attractive with an underground.
Gary Bruce –
[ No head scratching needed, bob/Peter, which ever personality it is. ]
Yep, bob1234 and Peter are one and the same person. 😆
BH
Austar sports had a replay after the game finished on 9.
OH watched it as he had been watching the Waratahs when it was on 9
They only showed the game, no Anthem, no Rudd interview
[Yep, bob1234 and Peter are one and the same person.]
Proof. An admission.
I have a feeling this Labor Government maybe a 1 1/2 term wonder like the Whitlam Government.
Gary Bruce
Rely on that alleged “admission” at your own peril.
[It was typed by me (transposed) from the original article – and clearly incorrectly – by me typing it directly into the computer.]
Brilliant, so brilliant, that Godwin might even give it a run.
[I have a feeling this Labor Government maybe a 1 1/2 term wonder like the Whitlam Government.]
ie Labor will win the next election.
Gary
There’s just enough room in stfu for a pair of trolls 😉
In summary- it seems the only actual news from today is Rudd negotiating with the Greens over the CPRS. The rest is just distractions.
Castle –
Are you stating what I said is false or a lie ?
Thanks Vera – switched on today so missed it.
BTW – just read a comment that Ch9 was going to make announcement today tht would rock the Rudd Govt. – did they?
[There’s just enough room in stfu for a pair of trolls]
Oh Vera, do you really want to deprive an old bloke of his Sunday morning fishing?