Morgan: 56.5-43.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll shows Labor’s two-party lead at 56.5-43.5, down from the surprisingly strong 58.5-41.5 recorded a fortnight ago. Labor is down 1.5 per cent on the primary vote to 46 per cent and the Coalition are up 2.5 per cent to 38 per cent, with the Greens down 1.5 per cent to 8.5 per cent. Other news:

• Belinda Neal faces a preselection challenge in Robertson from Deborah O’Neill, education teacher at the University of Newcastle and narrowly unsuccessful state candidate for Gosford in 2003. According to Peter van Onselen of The Australian, O’Neill’s challenge has “the tacit approval of NSW Labor Right powerbrokers”, with Labor sources backing recent reports that party polling shows Neal headed for defeat. John Della Bosca, however, is feared to be ready to “pull out all stops to save his wife”. Members of Labor’s Ourimbah have passed a motion calling on Belinda Neal to bow out, but according to Neal, the branch consists of “approximately six members”. Interestingly, the Prime Minister has been making positive noises about Neal recently. The Daily Telegraph reports police officer Darren Jameson has as expected been preselected as Liberal candidate, despite earlier suggestions former member Jim Lloyd would seek to make a comeback.

• Labor’s member for the north Queensland seat of Dawson, James Bidgood, has announced he will bow out at the next election for health reasons. Bidgood gained the seat from Nationals member De-Anne Kelly in 2007 after picking up a 13.2 per cent swing, and has been chiefly noted since for offering the media pictures he had taken of a protester setting fire to himself in front of Parliament House, and saying the global financial crisis was a result of God “bringing judgement”. Labor’s margin after the election was 3.2 per cent, which the redistribution has reduced to 2.4 per cent.

• David Elliott, chief executive of the Civil Contractors Federation and one-time press secretary to Opposition Leader Peter Collins, has launched a preselection challenge against state upper house member and Right faction powerbroker David Clarke. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Elliott previously had his eyes on the lower house seat of Riverstone. He unsuccessfully contested preselection for the federal seat of Mitchell against Clarke’s arch-rival of the Right, Alex Hawke. Clarke has the backing of Barry O’Farrell, and according to Salusinszky may find unlikely support from the Left. Nonetheless, Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reckons Clarke to be “at serious risk of losing” due to backing for Elliott from Nick Campbell, state party president and an ally of Hawke.

• The Nationals have preselected David Gillespie to run against independent Rob Oakeshott in Lyne.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the timetable for the federal redistribution of Victoria, which Antony Green explains will definitely not be in effect before the next election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,180 thoughts on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  1. When I saw that I thought “Oh no.” Then had a look at the figures. Umm, not bad.

    NSW looks like a problem. According to Tony Wright’s article:

    This latest poll suggests NSW voters may not be differentiating state Labor from federal Labor. Unlike any other state’s voters, those polled in NSW are supporting the Coalition over Labor, and on primary votes, by a significant margin: 45-39.

    Probably a relatively small sample though.

  3. NSW looks like a problem. According to Tony Wright’s article:

    When the campaign begins they’ll distinguish. How can’t they with Rudd’s picture everywhere.

  4. from end 2006 fro Dems controlled both Congress houses

    Yeah, and they did terrible things like passing the biggest reform of lobbyist rules ever, and passing an increase to the minimum wage. How shocking!

    Mean while you completely ignore the Bush tax cuts and Medicare prescription drug benefit that caused 2/3 of the debt.

  5. Today, the opposition will be embarrassed when former leader Malcolm Turnbull speaks in favour of the ETS in the parliamentary debate on the government’s revamped legislation, which is based on the deal done with Mr Turnbull that cost him the Liberal leadership. The former opposition leader has said he will cross the floor on the legislation.
    The Age.

    Is that right? If they are simply going to re-run the same bill as was presented before what is the point.

  7. Is that right? If they are simply going to re-run the same bill as was presented before what is the point.

    It will demonstrate that the Liberals are still bitterly divided on the bill.

  8. The emissions trading scheme (ETS), facing another parliamentary defeat, is still supported by a strong 56 per cent.

    Interesting how this support figure closely mirrors the Labor 2PP figure. (allowing for MOE)

    It shows that voters are supporting Labor “and” the ETS in roughly equal measure. To me that spells “fail” for Abbott’s plan.

    People “want” action on CC!

  9. Mr Stirton points out that while Mr Abbott’s numbers are a significant improvement over Mr Turnbull’s final poll, Mr Turnbull had a similar start to Mr Abbott.

    And Mr Abbott’s debut net approval of plus-three is ”one of the worst for a new leader in the 37-year history of the poll. Most new leaders get a net positive score of 20 to 30 per cent. But he has muddied the water on climate change and that can only help the Coalition.”

    hmmm 6 of one, half a dozen of another

  10. Show off

    already pointed out th USA debt to GDP from 2006 , you nong

    and its growing year by year whilst you in deniel with excuses

  11. Is that right? If they are simply going to re-run the same bill as was presented before what is the point.

    They believe in it and want it passed. If fails to pass it can be passed in a joint sitting after a DD if they desire to go down that path.

  12. First signs of dissent from within the Liberal partyroom leaked to Glenn Milne:

    According to their Liberal critics,these people have dubbed themselves conservative progressives and are briefing the parliamentary press gallery that they are the future of the party because they are positioned in the centre. On the way through they clip the real Right and the moderates as too extreme to appeal to the electorate at large.

    This new grouping is supposed to include Scott Morrison, Stuart Robert, Alex Hawke, Jamie Briggs and Louise Markus. According to their critics they use their genuinely held Christian beliefs to showcase their self-proclaimed social conservatism. But what really drives all of them is what drives all politicians in the end: self-advancement.

    Which means the group has also been rebadged within the party room as the ambition faction. What annoys the real Right is that they see this collection as arbitrary in policy terms and only held together by the glue of self-preferment.

    Says one critic of the group: “The progressive conservatives dress themselves up in a cloak of Christianity to claim conservative status but are entirely flexible when it comes to applying [or not

    any principle to policy decision. They all argued in support of an ETS last year but now argue about how bad it was and how they never really supported it.”]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/resentment-simmers-as-party-races-to-the-right/story-e6frg6zo-1225827615355

  13. Abbott has clearly gathered up the base. The coalition will not win an election on 41% primary. They’ll need to do a lot better than that, particularly when the Green preferences, I believe, will favour Labor very heavily.

  14. But what really drives all of them is what drives all politicians in the end: self-advancement.
    Which means the group has also been rebadged within the party room as the ambition faction.

    Sounds like the Liberal version of the Obeid faction.

  15. Michelle Grattan is all excited. Game on!

    TONY Abbott’s ascension to leadership has boosted the Coalition vote, and backing for the government’s emissions trading scheme has taken a knock, in an Age/Nielsen poll showing people are confused on the climate change alternatives.

    Labor has fallen by 2 points on a two-party basis, but retains a solid 54-46 per cent lead, while support for its trading scheme is down by 10 points since late November.

    The first Nielsen poll since Mr Abbott became opposition leader in December has him off to a good start, with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd losing ground on both personal approval and as preferred prime minister since November, when Malcolm Turnbull was his opponent.

    The emissions trading scheme (ETS), facing another parliamentary defeat, is still supported by a strong 56 per cent.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/abbott-leads-poll-revival-20100207-nksn.html

    But comes out with this contradictory piece!

    Mr Abbott’s alternative climate policy – for a fund to finance the reduction of emissions – has also struck a chord. When voters were presented with a choice between the fund and the trading scheme, 45 per cent preferred the fund and 39 per cent the trading scheme.

    But when people were asked to choose between Mr Rudd and Mr Abbott’s broad approaches to climate change, the results were different: 43 per cent chose the PM’s approach and only 30 per cent Mr Abbott’s. Pollster John Stirton said the apparent contradiction probably reflected voters’ low level of understanding.

  16. That would make the Opposition minus 110% conservative and plus 10% progressive.

    It would be good, though, to have some Liberals come forward with progressive ideas. There’s no hope for the Nationals in that direction.

  17. Scorp

    from article
    “Mr Abbott’s alternative climate policy – for a fund to finance the reduction of emissions – has also struck a chord. When voters were presented with a choice between the fund and the trading scheme, 45 per cent preferred the fund and 39 per cent the trading scheme.”

    needs more exposue of Abbotts majic pudding , not taxing poluters yet somehow reducing co2

  19. Gary Bruce
    Posted Monday, February 8, 2010 at 12:28 am | Permalink

    “they’ll need to do a lot better than that, particularly when the Green preferences, I believe, will favour Labor very heavily.”

    you rite , 75% prefs go to Labor even when greens do not issue a HTV card !

  20. Ron,Shows

    Re the USA you are both partially right.

    Howard was constrained by cossie and but for that small mercy,we would be in the same boat

    rudd needs to reinforce what a danger the abbott/joyce/hockey triumvirate would do to our financial markets

  21. Support for the Abbott emissions reduction fund was greatest among Coalition voters (70 per cent),

    Abbott won’t be able to wear his budgie smugglers after reading that.

    He’ll have such a big erection believing he has won back the heartland that he’ll bust the stitching! 😉

  22. Oh and for our fifth columnists

    LABOR powerbroker John Della Bosca has dismissed as “nonsense” claims he rang around to stop his wife Belinda Neal from being forced to face a rank-and-file preselection ballot in the marginal federal seat of Robertson.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/neal-claim-nonsense-della-bosca/story-e6frg6nf-1225827626631?from=public_rss

    “we will smack you down on the blogs,we will fight you on the airwaves and blow you out of the water with your shite and doubt sowing”

    We know who you are
    😉

  23. PY

    “If they are simply going to re-run the same bill as was presented before what is the point.”

    ‘It will demonstrate that the Liberals are still bitterly divided on the bill.’

    plus Bill may be passed

    If 2 libs cross floor again , ar Greens silly enuf to knock back ETS a 3rd time , and look stupid when there own flaw polisy only gives a 5% reducton till 2020 , assuming PY you know your Partys polisy

  24. This comment following Mike Carlton’s article on Lord Monckton is one of the best I’ve read for ages.

    Lord Monckton of Hysteria is sadly, given the propensity of the ordinary punter to respond far more consistently to emotional messages catering to their inherent fears and prejudices, probably appealing to a lot of people. Most of them are without significant intellectual resources, but with bucket loads of emotional insecurities and often inarticulate, and undirected, rage. Your article was brilliant, and managed to deal with just about all of the overarching lies that have supported the denialist position. You shouldn’t expect however that it will have any significant effect on this lot of emotional and ethical cripples. They are only listening to their own inner voices. That is scary!

    http://www.watoday.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/debunking-the-myths-behind-the-pontificating-potty-peer-20100205-nikc.html

  25. The announcement of extra federal funding is welcome.
    1. $2.5 billion (reported Sunday morning as $2billion) to assist disadvantaged schools
    2. An further extra $11 million to assist disadvantaged schools.

    Although Sunday news reports indicated the $2.5 billion would be allocated based on the MySchool website, it now appears the $2.5 billion has already, in 2009, been allocated, prior to the existence of MySchool.

    The extra $11 million is to be allocated to 110 schools (approx. $100,000 each) and is based on schools who are below both the national average and those for statistically similar schools in all areas on the NAPLAN national tests.

    The president of the Australian Education Union, Angelo Gavrielatos, said:
    ”The $11 million seems to have been an announcement made on the run..
    Clearly we welcome any additional resources to schools. But for the minister to suggest the schools need to be publicly ranked for the allocation of additional resources is disingenuous. All other schools that are part of the government’s national partnership for low

    socio-economic status

    schools were identified last year.”
    Controversial My School index to be reviewed

  28. #1173 – Ron

    assuming PY you know your Partys polisy

    There were hopes raised this week that discussions (the first the Rudd government had with the Greens – previously Rudd refused to talk to the Greens) might result in a “compromise” by Labor, so that a real action plan for CC could be determined.

    It seems instead, the talks have been a waste of time, and Rudd will be proceeding with the Liberal (Turnbull version) bill.

    There will be many disappointed people – whose hopes had been raised during the course of this week.

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