Nielsen: 54-46

The latest Nielsen poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, down from 56-44 in November. The Coalition is up four points on the primary vote to 41 per cent, with Labor steady on 42 per cent (no figure is provided for the Greens as far as I can see). The Prime Minister’s personal ratings have taken a hit, his approval rating down six to 60 per cent and disapproval up four to 33 per cent. The poll is the first since Tony Abbott became Liberal leader, and finds him with 44 per cent approval and 41 per cent disapproval. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 58-31, compared with 67-21 in the twilight of Turnbull’s leadership. The sample size was 1400. Elsewhere:

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Paul Nicolaou, the Liberal Party fundraiser who failed to retain John Brogden’s old seat of Pittwater at a 2006 by-election, will seek preselection for the state upper house. Also in the hunt for the three “at large” positions on the Liberal ticket (the remaining places are selected on a regional basis) are moderate incumbent Catherine Cusack; Peter Phelps, former chief-of-staff to defeated Eden-Monaro MP Gary Nairn (whose alleged political smarts once led him to compare Nairn’s Labor opponent, war hero Mike Kelly, to a Nazi concentration camp guard); Natasha MacLaren-Jones, Right faction state party vice-president and former staffer to Senator Helen Coonan; Dai Le, a former Radio National producer who ran in Cabramatta at the 2008 by-election held after the departure of Reba Meagher; Pat Daley, a former Salvation Army spokesman; and Frank Oliveri, a Fairfield councillor said to be backed by David Clarke. They might yet be joined by Clarke himself if he proves unable to retain his existing position as the candidate representing north-western Sydney. Clarke hopes to retain that position through a deal in which he will back Cusack in exchange for support from moderates. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Clarke’s foes in the Alex Hawke camp claim he could secure as few as 30 of the available 90 votes, with many moderates allegedly refusing to fall in as directed behind Clarke. As well as the Hawke-backed David Elliott, the position will be contested by “Robyn Preston, a Hills councillor, Tony Issa, a Parramatta councillor, and Nick Tyrrell, a Blacktown councillor”.

Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Robyn Parker, Liberal state upper house member and factional moderate, will contest preselection for the Labor-held lower house seat of Maitland after recognising she will be unable to retain her existing position. While it was reported last year that the way had been smoothed for her to win the Maitland nomination through the amendment of the preselection timetable, Ian Kirkwood of the Newcastle Herald reports she faces rival contenders in Maitland councillors Bob Geoghegan and Stephen Mudd and Newcastle councillor Brad Luke. The issue will be decided by 30 local branch members and eight head office representatives on Saturday, February 21.

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports three candidates have confirmed they will put their names forward for Labor preselection in Macarthur: Nick Bleasdale, the candidate in 2007, Paul Nunnari, former wheelchair athlete and adviser to state MP Graham West, and Greg Warren, the deputy mayor of Camden. Hughes is said by Coorey to be claimed by the Right, factional home to candidates Greg Holland and Brent Thomas, but the Left might yet seek to upset the Right’s applecart by putting forward Liverpool mayor Wendy Waller. Both have been made winnable by redistribution and the impending departure of their Liberal members, Danna Vale and Pat Farmer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,247 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46”

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  1. castle

    It worse than that, your comment made me think of the number of forms I have had to get filled out by my GP.

    Centrelink treating Doc reports, Superannuation, Disabled Parking … etc etc.

    Then if you want to scuba dive, you need a form from your GP, fly a ‘plane the same. Its never ending.

  2. [He has also announced that he would take over running the country’s 750 public hospitals if state and territory governments have not agreed to a national reform plan by the middle of 2009.]

    Hey Truthy where does he say he will fix hospitals in a year?

  3. [ So Vic has local hospital boards, SA is going to bring them back after the election ]

    Which system do you believe is best for patients Dio ?

  4. [Hey Truthy where does he say he will fix hospitals in a year?]

    Where doesn’t it say he would have a national take over if they weren’t fixed by now.

    Stop the spin mate, i’m not buying into it.

  5. [Where doesn’t it say he would have a national take over if they weren’t fixed by now.]

    It doesn’t, the fix bit is a Dutton invention, usually spruiked in a press conference where a leadership crisis is occurring in the Liberal Party.

  6. Truthy, you yourself provided the Rudd quote, and it’s clear that he didn’t say “if they weren’t fixed by now.” He said “if state and territory governments have not agreed to a national reform plan.” No-one ever suggested the hospitals could be “fixed” in two years. So stop making things up.

  7. Thats bullshit. He said quite clearly he would take over the public hospital system is it wasn’t fixed by the states now.

    He hasn’t taken over the public hospital system so i’ll rack this one up as another broken election promise.

  8. [Thats bullshit. He said quite clearly he would take over the public hospital system is it wasn’t fixed by the states now.]

    Dolt. 😛

  9. Kevin Rudd 2007:
    [“But what I’m signalling very clearly is if we weren’t able to yield that sort of outcome co-operative with the states, then I believe the mood of the nation is that we need to ask the Australian people for a mandate to take Commonwealth responsibility for full funding for public hospitals.”]

    Game. Set. Match

  10. Rubbish. Are you really this stupid? “Yield that sort of outcome co-operative with the states” means the same thing as “if state and territory governments have not agreed to a national reform plan.” And in fact that quote shows he specifically said he would NOT take over the hospitals in this term. He said he would “ask the Australian people for a mandate” to do so. That means either another election or a referendum.

  11. TheTruthHurts #4173

    We should be able to do what they did in California and have a public iniated election.

    1. This isn’t the USA, it’s Australia. Why not emigrate? I’d recommend Montana.

    2. It’s Citizens Electoral Council of Australia policy – Proponents of the LaRouche movement fighting for peace through economic development! http://www.cecaust.com.au/ I enjoy checking TTH’s Obama posts against Lyndon’s latest rants!

    Goes with those on other charming websites like Australian Identity aka Australians Against Further Immigration You can catch up with the latest “Illegal immigrant” rants on http://australianidentity.net/index.php?action=search2 There’s even a new one on Insulation deaths, starting on What you get when you elect a pop star to parliament

    But for the Medium of the Week Award, it’s hard to beat the Australian League of Right’s

    19 February 2010 Thought for the Week:Rudd rattled by debt: Mr Rudd appears to be excessively sensitive about the Labor Party debt. One of the reasons for his sensitivity could be the unrelenting rise in our nation’s gross debt and the Australian public’s understandable concern about this.

    And here I was thinking it was Valentine’s Day, Feduary 14! I’ve lost 5 whole days!

    A-bloody-mazing!

  12. Now I can understand Bobs frustration with the “hacks”.

    This is pathetic. He made an election promise for a federal takeover if the hospitals weren’t fixed by mid 2009, now we have all the hacks in here saying thats not what he really meant.

    BULLSHIT!

  13. [He made an election promise for a federal takeover if the hospitals weren’t fixed by mid 2009]

    Truthy thats the entire point – he did not. You may believe he did in your cesspit, but again he did not.

  14. TTH

    You are wrong again big time and you simply won’t admit it. You can’t seriously suggest that the quote from Rudd supports your claims of a broken promise. If you think that then run your logic past any 12 year old and maybe they can get you to see where you’ve got it wrong. If that doesn’t work you are simply too dumb to comprehend.

  15. [Truthy thats the entire point – he did not. You may believe he did in your cesspit, but again he did not.]

    Well he did. Thats a fact.

    I know you have problems handling that fact, but it’s still a fact.

  16. In the next couple of week Rudd and Roxon will announce their new Health Policy – Abbott knows this, that is why he spouted his “policy”.

    Rudd and Roxon have visited over 100 hospitals, listened to their views. That is why Rudd was beaming in QT about Health questions.

    Sorry Tone hospital boards is yesterday’s policy.

  17. TheTruthHurts #4211

    This is pathetic. He made an election promise for a federal takeover if the hospitals weren’t fixed by mid 2009, now we have all the hacks in here saying thats not what he really meant.

    And John Howard promised the Australia people he would “never never? introduce a GST. Why, even members of his own government called him, “The Lying Rodent”. Yes, you can google both.

    Now go ahead & tell me that what Howard did in 1996, 1998, 2001, 2004, 2007 is irrelevant! Except, of course, his anti Boat people policies. Which you want Rudd to reinstate & implement.

    You are such a hypocrite!

  18. ruawake@4222

    [ Well he did. Thats a fact.

    OK simple exercise – find a quote. Fool.]

    Oh and include a link, lest you don’t want to be caught out telling untruths like YMP and his creative “typing” skills. 🙂

  19. [He made an election promise for a federal takeover if the hospitals weren’t fixed by mid 2009]

    That’s just a deliberate and obvious LIE, as you have proved by failing to provide a quote where he said any such thing. Do you really think you are achieving anything by telling such pathetic and obvious lies?

  20. [Rudd and Roxon have visited over 100 hospitals, listened to their views. ]

    WOW!!! Blow me down! That’ll fix the health system!

    A visit!

  21. I clicked on one of these links provided by Tim Dunlop and was surprised to see that the Libs are still singing of the same song sheet as they were in early 2007.

    This is a good read. Same strategy; Rudd is the key to Labor’s success, knock out Rudd and government will fall straight back in to the hands of its rightful owners.

    [The federal government’s attacks on Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd are a legitimate way of helping Australians discover “what’s in his heart”, says coalition frontbencher Andrew Robb.

    Mr Robb said today the government’s relentless focus on Mr Rudd’s relationship with disgraced former West Australian premier Brian Burke was a tactic in assessing the Labor leader’s fitness to be prime minister.

    “Kevin Rudd … has to accept that people need to find out what’s in his heart – what maketh the man,” the vocational and technical education minister told the National Press Club in Canberra.

    “Has he got judgment or not, is he honest or not, how does he respond under pressure?

    “When something unexpected happens if he happened to be prime minister, would he be under the table or would be upfront leading the charge, dealing with the issue?”

    The government had a duty to scrutinise an opposition leader, he said.

    “The pretender, he has to be assessed.”

    “It is our legitimate job to question and probe and hold up for public assessment the characteristics of that individual.”]

    This bit was illuminating though. They were in total disbelief that they were going to be thrown out, and in a lot of respects they still haven’t come to grips with it!

    [Mr Robb said Labor’s big lead over the coalition in recent opinion polls showed a mood to keep the federal government on its toes.

    “What we’re witnessing in the polls is a desire of many in the community to take the opportunity to tickle the government along,” he said.

    After years of Labor changing leaders, voters felt they had no legitimate means of keeping pressure on the government, Mr Robb said.

    “They are almost wishing and willing Labor to perform and it’s a very rational, I think, response.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/rudd-attacks-legitimate/2007/03/14/1173722539541.html

  22. [And John Howard promised the Australia people he would “never never? introduce a GST.]

    And then he took a GST mandate to the next election.

    Much like Rudd took his Hospital Takeover mandate to the 2007 election.

    Now where the hell is the take over happening?

  23. [“What we need in our health system is more money and more co-ordination with Canberra, not local hospital boards that might be run by the local businesspeople – the butcher, the baker, the candlestick maker,” ]

    Hey I agree with Paul Lucas for once. 😉

  24. [This isn’t the USA, it’s Australia. Why not emigrate? I’d recommend Montana.]

    OzPol,

    Clearly, Alaska, the home of Sarah Palin, would be the most appropriate state for TTH to emigrate. There’s an eerie similarity between Palin’s and TTH’s powers of expression.

  25. Scorps,

    Could you please let me know where you found Tim Dunlop? I have great respect for him from his “Blogocracy” days, when he was a rare voice of sanity on the News.Ltd. website.

  26. At least Tony Abbott is running true to form.

    [Abbott sinks to a ‘new low’]
    [Labor has accused Health Minister Tony Abbott of sinking to a new low by questioning Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd’s account of his father’s death.

    In a column in The Sydney Morning Herald today, Mr Abbott said Mr Rudd’s story of losing his father when he was 11 and his family’s subsequent eviction from their farm “sounds too self-serving to be true”.]

    [In his column, Mr Abbott accused Mr Rudd of trying to create “a log cabin to White House” scenario of a battler made good rather than a “driven careerist working to undermine his then leader”.

    “There have now been a number of suggestions that, with Rudd, all is not quite as it seems,” Mr Abbott wrote.

    Mr Abbott referred to recent media reports which raised doubt over Mr Rudd’s claims that his father died as a result of medical neglect following a car accident in Queensland and his claims he and his family were then immediately evicted from their farm.

    “The problem with this story is that it now sounds too self-serving to be true,” Mr Abbott wrote.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/abbott-sinks-to-a-new-low/2007/03/14/1173722525843.html

  27. [How many Rudd visits will the Townsville Hospital need before it’s fixed by the way?]

    You tell me Truthy, what’s wrong with the Townsville Hospital?

  28. TheTruthHurts #4209

    Thats bullshit. He said quite clearly he would take over the public hospital system is it wasn’t fixed by the states now.

    He hasn’t taken over the public hospital system so i’ll rack this one up as another broken election promise.

    TheTruthHurts #4220

    “Truthy thats the entire point – he did not. You may believe he did in your cesspit, but again he did not”.

    Well he did. Thats a fact.

    I know you have problems handling that fact, but it’s still a fact.

    No it bloody well does NOT! And it IS NOT! YOU”RE he ine who has difficulty with the truth.

    This is what he said 23 August 2007!

    $2 billion National Health Reform Plan over four years to improve Australia’s health system and ensure better health services for patients in hospitals

    $2 billion in investments to deliver improved health outcomes for patients in Australia’s health care and hospital system [and a] commitment that a Rudd Labor Government [would] seek to take financial control of Australia’s 750 public hospitals if State and Territory Governments have not begun implementing an agreed National Health Reform Plan by mid-2009.

    Let me repeat:a Rudd Labor Government [would] seek to take financial control of Australia’s 750 public hospitals if State and Territory Governments have not begun implementing an agreed National Health Reform Plan

    That’s it. No “Taking over Public Hospitals”, BUT “financial control” of them. And only “if” they “have not begun” “an agreed” … “National Health Reform Plan”

    THAT’S ALL!

    Suck it up, Sweetie Pie!

  29. [How many Rudd visits will the Townsville Hospital need before it’s fixed by the way?]

    You spoken to that 12 year old yet or are you still deluded?

  30. It’s not within Rudd’s power to “fix” the Townsville or any other public hospital. Hospitals are run by the states. That’s the whole point of this debate – should the federal government take over the public hospitals? That would require either a referral of powers by the states or a referendum. What Rudd is doing is negotiating with the states for a program to fix the problems in the hospitals. He has said repeatedly that if a satisfactory agreement isn’t reached, he will seek a mandate for a federal takeover. A “mandate” means either an election or a referendum.

    Does the Liberal party support a takeover? Would the Liberals support a referendum? I don’t know and I doubt they know either.

  31. [I think one can say with some confidence that TTH is not a swinging voter.]

    The only thing about him that swings is his peanut-sized brain under his 10 gallon hat.

  32. Frank Calabrese…
    [ caught out telling untruths like YMP and his creative “typing” skills. ]

    Your statement is utter bull crap.

  33. PY,

    No one takes you seriously.

    Caught telling lines and a late, reluctant and qualified apology.

    Next you’ll be saying it was your dog that done it.

  34. Being a true blue mallee boy ( the only true Australians according to TTH) I can say with some confidence that TTH represents a real demographic, the demographic that votes for Pauline Hansen, the demographic that has moved from undecided to Liberal now that a moron is the Liberal leader.

    If your interested in politics don’t call him names try to understand his prejudice and miss conceptions. My view is the only solution is a bit of travel, but I have met examples that managed to travel the world and learn nothing.

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