Nielsen: 54-46

The latest Nielsen poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, down from 56-44 in November. The Coalition is up four points on the primary vote to 41 per cent, with Labor steady on 42 per cent (no figure is provided for the Greens as far as I can see). The Prime Minister’s personal ratings have taken a hit, his approval rating down six to 60 per cent and disapproval up four to 33 per cent. The poll is the first since Tony Abbott became Liberal leader, and finds him with 44 per cent approval and 41 per cent disapproval. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 58-31, compared with 67-21 in the twilight of Turnbull’s leadership. The sample size was 1400. Elsewhere:

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Paul Nicolaou, the Liberal Party fundraiser who failed to retain John Brogden’s old seat of Pittwater at a 2006 by-election, will seek preselection for the state upper house. Also in the hunt for the three “at large” positions on the Liberal ticket (the remaining places are selected on a regional basis) are moderate incumbent Catherine Cusack; Peter Phelps, former chief-of-staff to defeated Eden-Monaro MP Gary Nairn (whose alleged political smarts once led him to compare Nairn’s Labor opponent, war hero Mike Kelly, to a Nazi concentration camp guard); Natasha MacLaren-Jones, Right faction state party vice-president and former staffer to Senator Helen Coonan; Dai Le, a former Radio National producer who ran in Cabramatta at the 2008 by-election held after the departure of Reba Meagher; Pat Daley, a former Salvation Army spokesman; and Frank Oliveri, a Fairfield councillor said to be backed by David Clarke. They might yet be joined by Clarke himself if he proves unable to retain his existing position as the candidate representing north-western Sydney. Clarke hopes to retain that position through a deal in which he will back Cusack in exchange for support from moderates. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Clarke’s foes in the Alex Hawke camp claim he could secure as few as 30 of the available 90 votes, with many moderates allegedly refusing to fall in as directed behind Clarke. As well as the Hawke-backed David Elliott, the position will be contested by “Robyn Preston, a Hills councillor, Tony Issa, a Parramatta councillor, and Nick Tyrrell, a Blacktown councillor”.

• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Robyn Parker, Liberal state upper house member and factional moderate, will contest preselection for the Labor-held lower house seat of Maitland after recognising she will be unable to retain her existing position. While it was reported last year that the way had been smoothed for her to win the Maitland nomination through the amendment of the preselection timetable, Ian Kirkwood of the Newcastle Herald reports she faces rival contenders in Maitland councillors Bob Geoghegan and Stephen Mudd and Newcastle councillor Brad Luke. The issue will be decided by 30 local branch members and eight head office representatives on Saturday, February 21.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports three candidates have confirmed they will put their names forward for Labor preselection in Macarthur: Nick Bleasdale, the candidate in 2007, Paul Nunnari, former wheelchair athlete and adviser to state MP Graham West, and Greg Warren, the deputy mayor of Camden. Hughes is said by Coorey to be claimed by the Right, factional home to candidates Greg Holland and Brent Thomas, but the Left might yet seek to upset the Right’s applecart by putting forward Liverpool mayor Wendy Waller. Both have been made winnable by redistribution and the impending departure of their Liberal members, Danna Vale and Pat Farmer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,247 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46”

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  2. Political commentators in the MSM tend to be like stock exchange traders lurching from extreme to extreme on small pieces of information. Some of the right wing MSM girls immediately threw themselves onto their backs hoping for penetration so excited were they with Tony.

    The change in fortunes I doubt is anything to do with Abbott and more to do with 1. there being a leadership change. 2. The Christmas break where people turn off, forget pretty much what went on before and push the reset button. 3. Rudd Labor is now old news, not the novelty. 4. Giving the new Opposition leader the benefit of the doubt honeymoon.

    It was inevitable that the polls would narrow somewhat come closer to election time but 54/46 is still a very handy lead indeed coming into an election as the incumbent. And your leader is miles ahead in satisfaction and PPM.

    And danger for Abbott and Joyce coming closer to an election is that people may pay more attention to them and some detail. They should be horrified at the prospect of those two being in government.

  6. A good example of how those who have “choice” by virtue of being rich, are able to make a choice of where they go to school. Look forward to seeing a story about a kid who wants to go to another school, but has no choice because of practical or financial reasons.
    No thanks, I’d rather go public: website data sways student

    Anna Patty examines the claims that the MySchool website will lead to better things –
    Reading, writing and number crunching

  7. all governments encouraged high levels of growth because that was what big business wanted, especially property developers, who depended on an ever-increasing demand for accommodation to maximise their profits.

    A new anti-population growth political party is proposed to be launched (well until they realise the hoops they have to go through to get registered that is – then it might be a different story)
    New party wants population debate

  8. Alas Lisa Carty is no more. The former Sun-Herald NSW State Politics editor is now Lisa Mullins (following marriage to Paul Mullins) and is now working as media adviser to Craig Emerson.

  9. The really important numbers in this poll for Abbott are

    [The poll is the first since Tony Abbott became Liberal leader, and finds him with 44 per cent approval and 41 per cent disapproval.]

    He has a barely positive net approval rating. It will take a minor miracle for Abbott to improve on this. I think he is already cactus.

  10. Interesting item on ABC radio this morning (4AM and 5AM but 6AM!). Chris Evans says that Australian authorities were told by people in Australia (refugee advocates, I think they said) that there was an AS boat off Ashmore Reef.

    This leads to interesting questions.

    Are people in Australia who know that asylum seekers are coming people smugglers?

    What’s going to happen to the first journo who publishes a story about a coming SIEV and refuses to name his source?

    How are the pollies and authorities going to react to communications between potential asylum seekers and people in the know in Australia?

    BTW, listen to Fran Kelly after 7.30 at your own risk. She sounded pretty pumped about the opinion poll just before the 6AM news.

  11. Nearly fell out of bed this morning when I hear News Radios
    ‘s poll headline – Coaltition’s ETS policy more popular the Labour’s ETS.
    Sighs of relief when I actually read the numbers.

  12. As a bonus you would get to hear Fran Kelly talking to Eric Abetz: apparently, he has some problem with the government’s IR policy.

    No mention of the AS on the 7 o’clock news.

  14. Thomas Paine said at 2

    “Political commentators in the MSM tend to be like stock exchange traders lurching from extreme to extreme on small pieces of information”

    Except there are 3 piece of information all showing the shine had came off Labor and Rudd and disapproval is up significantly.

    The danger of Abbott and Joyce being part of a government…. umm that was 3 years ago …. when the inflation genie was out of the bottle …. oh wait interest rate is higher now than before

  15. Interesting analysis by Jim Middleton talking ‘newspapers’ with Triolio and O’Briend. He was all smiles about the Nielsen poll but gave no figures. Just said Tony Abbott has changed everything. Also said that Northern NSW & Qld were ahead for Abbott.

    Radio networks in NSW, above the Hunter and Qld to the Sunshine Coast have been bagging the Govt. heavily for the past few months. They’ve been pushing Plimer & Monckton and the World Govt./Communism theme. It’s revolting here but I am hearing more and more people in my area talking about it as tho it is gospel. It’s becoming difficult to persuade them otherwise.

    The Govt. really need to up the ante in these areas and explain themselves.

    Had a professional friend yesterday tell me that the Govt. has not sent any asylum seekers back but let’s them all in. When I said that there had been returns she said she was sure there hadn’t been because it hasn’t been reported anywhere.

  16. The way I see it is that the ETS is dead and gone. B.Brown has just said on ABC2 he will not support Labors current ETS and the voters are cooling on the Idea.
    The Greens blew it when they had a chance to join the 2 Liberal senators crossed the floor.

  17. [ The Govt. really need to up the ante in these areas and explain themselves. ]

    The Rudd media machine is asleep. That’s obvious from the Neal fiasco.

  18. When the current ETS bill goes before the Senate and gets defeated that will be the end and want be mentioned or very little mention will be made on the ALP ETS

  19. PY #7

    This guy has opened up with a fundamental error.

    There are many people who are disturbed by a population projection of 35 million, but that doesn’t mean they would embrace a zero population growth target like this.

  20. #19

    To my mind a 2 children per family limit should be encouraged – at least to the extent of providing tax disencentives for those having more than 2 children per family. Any growth above that can be obtained from immigration.

  21. [To my mind a 2 children per family limit should be encouraged – at least to the extent of providing tax disencentives for those having more than 2 children per family. Any growth above that can be obtained from immigration.]

    Why immigrants?

  22. Did I just hear Abbetz drone to Fran Kelly about Gillard and Labour using anecdotal evidence on WorkChoices minutes after he used anecdotal evidence on the popularity of TAbbott and his so-called Action Plan on CC? Fran didn’t pull him up on it, naturally enough.

    Will have to check the transcript, don’t think I could stomach listening to it again.

  23. [ Why immigrants? ]

    To make up for the shortage under the 2 children per family program. Otherwise you would have negative growth (a declining population).

  24. PY #20

    Encouraging a cap on children per family will be extremely difficult in Australia. (I wouldn’t be a huge fan of that myself).

    We are told that population growth is driven 65% by net migration, and 35% by birth rate.

    It would be easier to alter the future polulation number of 2050/35 million by moderating the net migration number

  25. [The danger of Abbott and Joyce being part of a government…. umm that was 3 years ago …. when the inflation genie was out of the bottle …. oh wait interest rate is higher now than before]
    Yeah, very clever but only telling half the story. Interest rates are lower than when the Libs were in power, much lower.

  26. [We are told that population growth is driven 65% by net migration, and 35% by birth rate. ]

    Or we could just provide really crap healthcare!

  27. Is 54% – 46% good for the government? Is 60% – 33% a bloody good approval rating?
    Is 58% – 31% still massive in the PPM stakes? I think we a losing sight of reality here. Under normal circumstances these a tremendous numbers for any government going into an election year. Anyone expecting a government to be getting a 58% TPP at an election is dreaming.

  28. Another policy would be to have a CTS (Children Trading Scheme). Someone like me, who will never have children, could sell my right to have children (well 1) on an open market via the taxation system. The children trading market would establish the market price of children (we all know how perfect markets are- NOT). The price I receive, would not be paid to me but my tax rate each year would be reduced by a certain amount. The buyer of the extra child on open market would have his/her tax rate increased by a similar amount.

  29. [ Or we could just provide really crap healthcare! ]

    We could rename it the humane euthanasia program.

    Just kidding…I don’t think thats a good idea.

  30. [Anyone expecting a government to be getting a 58% TPP at an election is dreaming.]

    You could even say anyone expecting an election result of 54/46 is likely to be dreaming. It will likely be much closer.

  31. [You could even say anyone expecting an election result of 54/46 is likely to be dreaming. It will likely be much closer.]
    Maybe.

  33. I wonder what the latest smear will be from our resident fifth columnists?

    Sad really but a reflection of the total lack of policy or values that drives the Liberals

    Anything less than 100 seats to labor will be a defeat for the australian way of life.

  34. I think we are seeing here in Australia why the world is doomed if the scientists are correct. Nothing will be done to correct CC either here or world wide.

  35. [And danger for Abbott and Joyce coming closer to an election is that people may pay more attention to them and some detail. They should be horrified at the prospect of those two being in government.]

    Isn’t this exactly what was said about Rudd and Swan in Opposition by Liberal Party ‘observers’?

  36. [Isn’t this exactly what was said about Rudd and Swan in Opposition by Liberal Party ‘observers’?]
    Let me count the differences in circumstances. I’m sure I don’t need to go through them but one main difference is that the Libs tried to tell us Rudd was something that none of us saw. Labor is telling us that Abbott and Barnaby are something we are all seeing clearly. The incompetence is on show for heaven sake.

  38. [ I think we are seeing here in Australia why the world is doomed if the scientists are correct. Nothing will be done to correct CC either here or world wide.]

    Now we are seeing a change in narrative.

    Last week CC was just a “political issue”, not a real one.

  40. [Anyone else watching estimates? Today’s question: Is Senator Barnett the biggest moron who ever drew breath, or what?]

    I’m sure he’ll have some serious competition over the next few days. Wait until we get to the PMC Department questioning.

  41. [Rudd Govt is still not winning the propaganda war on the CC issue. It has made good progress and the message is getting simpler, but it is not cutting through enough for me.

    I am still puzzled why dont they keep on chanting the mantra that “The ETS is simply put a price on pollutions and the polluters will have to pay, no matter who they are” and emphasize this is the biggest difference between the two, one puts price on pollution, the other doesnt.

    I am sure if a poll is taken with punters with the question: “Do you agree about putting a price on pollutions and the polluters will have to pay”. Overwhelmingly will be yes and yes.]

    I posted the above yesterday. It looks like nothing has changed this morning on the media.

    There was NOBODY from the Govt side to counter the great big “tax” thing, on Radio RN (With Fran and La Gattan wetting themselves over Abbott as per usual), then more freekicks from Erica Betz.

    Then Skynews with more freekicks from Barnyard, then a Labor Parl. Sec. trying to explain ETS with about 6 bullet points. With that PYT reporter Ashleigh Something lost in translation.

    And Rudd is supposedly to have more credibility on CC than Abbott, but is he leveraging this? NO.

  42. The real question is incremental increase in Green Party vote, especially indicative of senate vote. The 2PP is seats on the titanic. These guys are detergent brands same factory. As Jack Mundey on abc radio said last Friday ecological socialism is the moral case of the future. Greed is so 20C and younger generations get it. What was most instructive was how “uncorruptible” and the “huge amount$” in bribes offered to the green ban BLF under his leadership until the major parties and business installed Norm Gallagher, destined for criminal convictions.

    Mundey works with … The Greens.

  43. [Gary Bruce
    Posted Monday, February 8, 2010 at 9:14 am | Permalink

    Is 54% – 46% good for the government? Is 60% – 33% a bloody good approval rating?
    Is 58% – 31% still massive in the PPM stakes? I think we a losing sight of reality here. Under normal circumstances these a tremendous numbers for any government going into an election year. Anyone expecting a government to be getting a 58% TPP at an election is dreaming. ]

    I agree Barry, however the way it stands now, like the Republic, the ETS is dead and the Greens are still wanting an unrealistic target for CO2.

  44. [Greed is so 20C and younger generations get it.]

    People have been saying that about the younger generation for the last 40 years to my personal recollection, and probably much longer.

  45. The Finnigans at 41 said

    “I am sure if a poll is taken with punters with the question: “Do you agree about putting a price on pollutions and the polluters will have to pay”. Overwhelmingly will be yes and yes.”

    That is just a simplistic approach of looking at it

    The polliters have to pay ….. who are the polluter ….. so the burner of coal who give us the parts and electricity to fuel our big screen tvs have to pay more ….. guess who they will pass this down to.

    And this will be added to the cost of compliance of each firm to the ETS, and then the government will have to ensure compliance with the tax and collect the tax

    At the end of the day, Australian consumers will have to pay for this tax, the compliance cost, the collection cost, the transfer cost, and what is left might be paid back to some of us

    Lets post the real question. ….

    I am sure if a poll is taken with punters with the question: “Do you agree about putting a price on pollutions and we will have to paid or forced to give up our flat screen tv, our computer etc are you happy to really do it”

    HOw about the greens on this blog, the fact that your computer is on is contributing to our CO2 emittion, are you happy to give up posting

  46. Peter Young at 28

    [Another policy would be to have a CTS (Children Trading Scheme).]

    Possibly also a CRS (Chidren Rental Scheme). Quite an interesting business model where parents would be willing to pay to get rid of the kids for a while, and borrowers would be willing to pay to get a kid for a while (great to see kids’ movies with; sympathy from shop assistants etc). Get money coming and going. No doubt Macquarie Bank could refine this modest proposal.

  48. [Greed is so 20C and younger generations get it.]

    Which probably explains why my children and their peers have so many more gadgets than I do.

    I think that a lot of what you have you take for granted (and therefore wanting it isn’t greedy in your eyes, but necessary).

    As for the whole ETS kerfuffle – if the CPRS is rejected again, and Labor sticks with is (as I expect them to), does this mean people will stop accusing them of only making easy decisions?

  49. Anyone read superfreakonomics- a whole chapter on climate change- the main point too little too late. No one is willing to make any changes.
    It is proposing the only solutions as sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere, or production of more clouds through sea spray.
    Here in Australia there is a price Aussies are willing to pay. I think it would sit around the $400 mark per household. Any higher and there is mass attrition. Get to $1000 and you probably lose 70% not good!

  50. GB #32.

    I agree; although I would add an additional contribution from deflated expectations following Copenhagen to the small drop in ALP 2PP.

    Copenhagen failed, but not because CC deniers had the ascendency.

    It failed because CC believers couldn’t agree on a way forward, and that puts a serious dent in Rudd/Wong’s approach.

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