Nielsen: 54-46

The latest Nielsen poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, down from 56-44 in November. The Coalition is up four points on the primary vote to 41 per cent, with Labor steady on 42 per cent (no figure is provided for the Greens as far as I can see). The Prime Minister’s personal ratings have taken a hit, his approval rating down six to 60 per cent and disapproval up four to 33 per cent. The poll is the first since Tony Abbott became Liberal leader, and finds him with 44 per cent approval and 41 per cent disapproval. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 58-31, compared with 67-21 in the twilight of Turnbull’s leadership. The sample size was 1400. Elsewhere:

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Paul Nicolaou, the Liberal Party fundraiser who failed to retain John Brogden’s old seat of Pittwater at a 2006 by-election, will seek preselection for the state upper house. Also in the hunt for the three “at large” positions on the Liberal ticket (the remaining places are selected on a regional basis) are moderate incumbent Catherine Cusack; Peter Phelps, former chief-of-staff to defeated Eden-Monaro MP Gary Nairn (whose alleged political smarts once led him to compare Nairn’s Labor opponent, war hero Mike Kelly, to a Nazi concentration camp guard); Natasha MacLaren-Jones, Right faction state party vice-president and former staffer to Senator Helen Coonan; Dai Le, a former Radio National producer who ran in Cabramatta at the 2008 by-election held after the departure of Reba Meagher; Pat Daley, a former Salvation Army spokesman; and Frank Oliveri, a Fairfield councillor said to be backed by David Clarke. They might yet be joined by Clarke himself if he proves unable to retain his existing position as the candidate representing north-western Sydney. Clarke hopes to retain that position through a deal in which he will back Cusack in exchange for support from moderates. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Clarke’s foes in the Alex Hawke camp claim he could secure as few as 30 of the available 90 votes, with many moderates allegedly refusing to fall in as directed behind Clarke. As well as the Hawke-backed David Elliott, the position will be contested by “Robyn Preston, a Hills councillor, Tony Issa, a Parramatta councillor, and Nick Tyrrell, a Blacktown councillor”.

• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Robyn Parker, Liberal state upper house member and factional moderate, will contest preselection for the Labor-held lower house seat of Maitland after recognising she will be unable to retain her existing position. While it was reported last year that the way had been smoothed for her to win the Maitland nomination through the amendment of the preselection timetable, Ian Kirkwood of the Newcastle Herald reports she faces rival contenders in Maitland councillors Bob Geoghegan and Stephen Mudd and Newcastle councillor Brad Luke. The issue will be decided by 30 local branch members and eight head office representatives on Saturday, February 21.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports three candidates have confirmed they will put their names forward for Labor preselection in Macarthur: Nick Bleasdale, the candidate in 2007, Paul Nunnari, former wheelchair athlete and adviser to state MP Graham West, and Greg Warren, the deputy mayor of Camden. Hughes is said by Coorey to be claimed by the Right, factional home to candidates Greg Holland and Brent Thomas, but the Left might yet seek to upset the Right’s applecart by putting forward Liverpool mayor Wendy Waller. Both have been made winnable by redistribution and the impending departure of their Liberal members, Danna Vale and Pat Farmer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,247 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46”

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  1. Let everyone be aware of the dangers of gas power:
    [AS many as 50 people are said to have been killed in an explosion at a US energy plant in Connecticut, with a huge search and rescue operation underway.

    Witnesses told the local Hartford Courant newspaper that as many as 100 people were injured in the blast at the Kleen Energy plant on the outskirts of Middletown on the Connecticut River.

    “There are bodies everywhere,” one witness was quoted as saying while others said victims may be buried in the rubble of the plant which was still under construction.]
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/killed-in-power-plant-blast/story-e6frea6u-1225827676466

  3. Psephos 44

    [People have been saying that about the younger generation for the last 40 years to my personal recollection, and probably much longer.]

    Supposedly Socrates said…

    [The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers]

  6. Finns

    I’ve been telling anyone including you that the ETS has been sold terribly. How else can people explain why Abbott’s ridiculous plan to increase emissions by 17% is preferred to Rudd’s ETS.

    ETS should be a walkover for Rudd over Abbott. Abbott doesn’t even believe in CC and his policy reflects that.

    I think a DD on the ETS is well and truly dead in the water.

  8. [ETS will be shelved I’m afraid. People will wait for the scientific world before wanting anything done]
    WTF? The scientific world has been explaining that global warming is a problem for the last 2 decades.

  9. Err, according to this poll Rudd’s approach is preferred over Abbott’s.
    [But when people were asked to choose between Mr Rudd and Mr Abbott’s broad approaches to climate change, the results were different: 43 per cent chose the PM’s approach and only 30 per cent Mr Abbott’s.]

  11. GB

    They asked the question in two different ways.

    [Mr Abbott’s alternative climate policy – for a fund to finance the reduction of emissions – has also struck a chord. When voters were presented with a choice between the fund and the trading scheme, 45 per cent preferred the fund and 39 per cent the trading scheme.]

  13. The ALP National Secretariat is vetoing ALP candidates:
    [The selection of ALP candidates in target seats has been centralised since the last election with the PM’s office, the National Secretariat, and an elite-level sub-committee of the party’s National Executive, exercising a veto power if a state branch wants to run someone not regarded as up to the task.]
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/labor-moves-on-pyne/story-e6freb9u-1225827617147

  14. Diogenes

    Easily answered

    That is because the Australian Public, would prefer it to be business as usual and do not really want to do anything about climate change. As long as any action we take, will not end up making any difference…. ie if our CO2 savings, will just be negated by increase pollution by China and India and our extra cost of business (through the ETS) will export jobs to those country.

    They do not want to give up their flat screen tv, their cars, their computers (and postings on blogs like this)

    Unless there is universal action and everyone is doing what they are saying. A ETS just does not make sense. In that case, the only action that can be taken is government direct action.

  16. dovif

    There is a counter-argument to that. Plenty of other countries have come up with an ETS (UK, NZ, most of Europe) which has broad public support.

    So you have to ask why they want to do something and Australia is more ambivalent (similar to the US).

  17. [That is because the Australian Public, would prefer it to be business as usual and do not really want to do anything about climate change.]
    dovif, 56% want to according to this poll and 54% are prepared to vote that way. That’s a majority isn’t it?

  18. GB

    Yes but it actually loses to Abbott’s “direct action” plan whenthey are directly compared. How can it lose to that piece of rubbish?

  20. [Yes but it actually loses to Abbott’s “direct action” plan whenthey are directly compared. How can it lose to that piece of rubbish?]
    What in that poll other than that one question suggests Abbott is on top of this argument?

  21. Gary Bruce

    There are 2 questions
    1. “do people want to do something about climate change?”
    2. “do people want to give up their cars/tv/computer to solve climate change”

    I would guese the answers are
    1. 56%
    2. 10%

    Unless you really think we can reduce pollution by 80% without a change of lifestyle

  23. Diogenes

    Australia like the US, Brazil (one of those firmly in Chinas corner) and most of the middle east (less so since fuel already has a excise (ETS) in most countries) are exporters of resources like Coal, Petrol, aluminium etc. The extraction and processing of those (ie steel) uses a lot heat/CO2

    An ETS will penalise countries who produces resources or who has to acquire resources (Australia/US/ China/ India) etc much more that a developed country with limited resources production (most of the EU, and NZ – with farming excluded)

  24. dovif – what other questions in that poll other than that one question suggests Abbott is on top of this argument?
    For that matter what was the exact question asked?

  26. pseph #62 “It failed because China sabotaged it, and for no other reason.”

    That’s a big call. I think China’s sabotage merely masked a myriad of disagreement.

  27. I would have thought that $1,000 per year ($20.00 per week) is peanuts to pay for the future. Don’t know what that $1,000 per year gets. We need 25% reduction now. How much does that cost?

    People pay probably $1,000 per year for car insurance. Sell their cars and walk or bicycle. Net result- economically neutral and fitter, healthier, less obese people. Give up one bottle on fancy wine per week.

    The less well off will struggle with $20 per week – but there could be some adjustment to make up for that.

  28. [That’s a big call. I think China’s sabotage merely masked a myriad of disagreement.]
    You obviously haven’t read this article:
    [To those who would blame Obama and rich countries in general, know this: it was China’s representative who insisted that industrialised country targets, previously agreed as an 80% cut by 2050, be taken out of the deal. “Why can’t we even mention our own targets?” demanded a furious Angela Merkel. Australia’s prime minister, Kevin Rudd, was annoyed enough to bang his microphone. Brazil’s representative too pointed out the illogicality of China’s position. Why should rich countries not announce even this unilateral cut? The Chinese delegate said no, and I watched, aghast, as Merkel threw up her hands in despair and conceded the point. Now we know why – because China bet, correctly, that Obama would get the blame for the Copenhagen accord’s lack of ambition.]
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/22/copenhagen-climate-change-mark-lynas

  29. Listening to the Media ie., Radio and TV one would think that Abbot is leading in popularity and in line to win the next election. Nothing has been mentioned about the PPM nor the 2PP numbers, no mention about the fact the ALP ETS is preferred by 56% over the Abbott plan.

  30. GB

    I am arguing that Abbott has got this correct much more than Rudd on CC and he is reading the public mood much better than Rudd

    While Rudd is still getting a lot of kudos from his mishandling of the GFC, when he really did nothing but madly spend money.

    a. I found it hilarious most of the Labor hacks in here never gave Howard and Costello any credit for the economy – it was the mining boom….. but when Rudd gets the same help during the GFC and spend the savings from the mining boom …. the labor hacks suddenly does not think the mining boom was such an issue clouding Rudd’s great-less
    b. none of the Australian bank failed or came closed to failure, becuase we had a strong regulatory environment …. which Rudd had nothing to do with
    c. meanwhile when the rest of the world is cutting spending Rudd was Gocery choicing, fuel choicing, and spending 16 mill on the boardbane network … all becuase of the mining bloom again

  31. [ Unless you really think we can reduce pollution by 80% without a change of lifestyle]

    No we can’t except to the extent that existing lifestyle components can be replaced with non-polluting components.

    So any work on “replacement components” is just as necessary as cutting out “polluting components”.

    Time to really reflect on whether we want existing lifestyles anyway. Which brings you to the question of the purpose of life. If the purpose of life is “to be happy” – then if you change your idea of what makes you happy, a lifestyle change is not a disaster anyway. If the purpose of life is to acquire as much wealth as possible, to own a house (or in Matt Browns case a dozen), to have a huge salary (in Bob Carr’s case it is reportedly $500,000 per year from Macquarie bank) or to have regular overseas trips by aeroplane – then you are going to be unhappy with the lifestyles necessary to save the planet.

  33. [Which brings you to the question of the purpose of life.]
    We are fortunate enough to live in a country where people are free to figure out their life’s purpose for themselves.

  35. SO

    If that natural gas explosion which killed 50+ people had’ve been a nuclear explosion, the anties would be calling for the closure of all nuclear plants. We’ll see how if anyone asks for all natural gas to be shut down.

  36. I suppose the bottom line is billions to make little difference, or millions to make no difference. People are going for the millions to make no difference unfortunately.
    They are happy with planting a few trees,believing they are recycling some of their garbage, turning off lights not being used and worrying about their footy teams performance, and planning the next holiday.

  37. [We’ll see how if anyone asks for all natural gas to be shut down.]
    I’m waiting for Gusface (Betty) to make exactly that argument. If he doesn’t, then he is obviously a hypocrite.

  38. [ We are fortunate enough to live in a country where people are free to figure out their life’s purpose for themselves. ]

    Only to the extent they are able to resist being brainwashed by the constant bombardment of advertising, aspirations by osmosis and preaching of pro-development politicians.

    Anyone who believes in free choice has probably been brainwashed by the Pope into believing that people have a choice to sin or not to sin. Thus they are likely candidates for future brainwashing by other agencies.

  39. Show’s on – I’ve read lots of articlesthat blame China for the Copenhagen debacle. I would add that CC believers who ramped up expectations should carry some of the blame, and that China’s scudding actions masked further hurdles to agreement.

    How does this impact 2PP preferred figures in Australia? I have two points:

    1) Unless China is considered to be a Climate change denier’, Copenhagen failed because the nations that believe in Climate Change could not agree.

    2) This opens up the idea for swinging voters that there are many ways to skin the Climate Change cat. Pre-cppenhagen, Rudd/Wong were successfully asserting that you either support ALP’s ETS or you are a denial dinosaur. That assertion is now weakened post-Copenhagen.

  40. [They are happy with planting a few trees,believing they are recycling some of their garbage]
    Of course individuals should change their behaviour in order to use less resources, and make better use of what they do use.

    But we can’t forget the fact that a country like Australia needs to DOUBLE its electricity generation capacity by 2050, even assuming we improve efficiency across the board by 15%. Individuals can’t double electricity generation, that is something that can only be achieved by Government planning ahead.

  41. [Only to the extent they are able to resist being brainwashed by the constant bombardment of advertising,]
    There’s no evidence that advertising brainwashes people.
    [Anyone who believes in free choice has probably been brainwashed ]
    Where is your evidence that everyone is brainwashed? How is it that everyone else is brainwashed, but not you, what makes you immune to this brainwashing?

  42. I’ve just had to send OH back to the garden – he was yelling at McDonald and then Abetz.

    What on earth is Abetz on about! He thinks most of uswould be worried about a date being changed – the bloke is demented.

  43. ShowsOn – thanks for the link to Tiser re Sturt preselection. Sounds pretty good so hope he runs and gives Pyne a jolt – right out the door, i.e.

  44. The blame for people being ignorant of the consequences of CC and go for the soft option can be laid swuarely and firmly at the feet of one bloke. He won’t lift a finger unless there is some political benefit in for himself.

    a. So he is happy to stand by and see an injustice perpetrated against a person, when it lies solely in his power to fix it. Personally don’t like the woman myself, but she is entitled to a fair go, to due process.

    b. So he fails to go out and educate the community about CC and explain how it is to be tackled, because he made the call that it would benefit him (forget the planet) politically more if he didn’t.

    :angry:

  45. Gary Bruce @ 34 wrote:

    [I think we are seeing here in Australia why the world is doomed if the scientists are correct. Nothing will be done to correct CC either here or world wide. ]

    Humanity has failed miserably every time it had to deal with having fouled its nest. I don’t expect it to do any better this time round. Greed and short term self-interest will win, both at the political and personal level. They already are!

    Some CC scientists are predicting temperatures could rise by 4 degrees as early as 2060 and at least one, Kevin Anderson, the consequent death of about 8.5 billion of the expected 9 billion humans, either through direct CC effects or the wars that will break out as a result. I doubt many of the predicted 35-40 million Australians will be among the survivors. Indeed, we’ll probably be among the first to go.

    Diogenes @ 56 wrote:

    [I’ve been telling anyone including you that the ETS has been sold terribly. How else can people explain why Abbott’s ridiculous plan to increase emissions by 17% is preferred to Rudd’s ETS. ]

    IMO, it hasn’t been sold at all. It has been more a matter of going through the motions rather than pushing it as “the greatest moral issue of our time.” Mostly, the ETS has just been used as a political points scoring/wedge weapon.

    Contrast how the ETs has been sold compared to the GST. That initially was as popular as herpes, but Howard fought tooth an nail to get it up and won an election in which is was the centrepiece policy. Does anyone expect Rudd to make the ETS the centrepiece of the next election? I bet it hardly gets a mention.

    Not that it matters much. The ETS as initially presented to parliament was already a deeply flawed policy that would have done nothing to lessen our impact on CC and would probably have set back effective change for years. Accepting the Lib amendments just made it worse.

    [ETS should be a walkover for Rudd over Abbott. Abbott doesn’t even believe in CC and his policy reflects that. ]

    I’ve never been convinced that Rudd really cares that much about CC either. He showed more passion during the Ute affair than he ever has over CC. Sure, had the ETS gotten up he would have run with it, but it was just a political tool, initially to beat Howard over the head with, and then wedge Nelson and Turnball. The only one to have shown real passion and commitment, even to the extent of nailing his hide to the mast over it, has been Turnball. Not that it stopped him adopting some very polluter friendly policy.

  47. [ShowsOn – thanks for the link to Tiser re Sturt preselection. Sounds pretty good so hope he runs and gives Pyne a jolt – right out the door, i.e.]
    Will the people in Stoneyfell, Beumont, Burnside et al vote for a Professor of Law instead of a career politician? That’s basically the question. It doesn’t seem to matter if Labor gets 10% swings in the north of the electorate if they can’t get a small swing in the blue ribbon Liberal suburbs.

  48. [weak as piss AL

    I expect more from you]
    Hi Betty,

    As expected, you are a complete hypocrite. You should now be demanding that all gas fired power stations be shut down.

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