Advertiser: 52-48 to Labor in SA

Seven weeks out from the state election, The Advertiser has published a poll of state voting intention, conducted on Wednesday to make hay out of the paper’s win on the blog comments issue. It finds Labor still leading at 52-48, compared with 56.8-43.2 at the 2006 election and 57-43 at the previous Advertiser poll in December. After distribution of the undecided and otherwise non-responsive, the primary vote figures are 38 per cent Labor, 39 per cent Liberal and 9 per cent Greens. Consistent with all other polling, Isobel Redmond has remarkably good personal ratings, and was deemed by 51 per cent of respondents to be more trustworthy than Mike Rann. The sample as usual is on the low side: 538 respondents, for a margin of error of over 4 per cent. Full tables here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

433 comments on “Advertiser: 52-48 to Labor in SA”

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  5. To me duplicating the Southenr Expressway is a crazy decision. It isn’t congested in either direction. South road is where the traffic jam is. Are Labor getting that scared? There are so many other things that need doing first. The money can only come from delaying South Road upgrades or the Federal government.

  7. I’m actually as much if not more interested in the details of the Darlington Transport Interchange – specifically if it has money for the extension of the Tonsley train line to FMC.

  10. sykesie

    I don’t know on darlington but I’d be surprised if it did include a rail extension. The original project budget was for the road project now with planning for a future PT extension. Adding rail would double the cost. Plus the Tonsley line is only single track and woudl need more expensive upgrading to provide frequent passenger services. I would expect they will build a proper bus interchange. But I’m just guessing – I don’t know.

  11. I agree with that analysis Socrates, but I would like to think there is provision in the planning for an intent to build the rail-line. If you are doing all this work, one would assume you would have to make a decision one way or another on the rail extnsion.

  12. [THE Liberals have dropped the ball on the Southern Expressway by vowing to duplicate the road – but refusing to give any details today.

    Liberal finance spokesman Rob Lucas said the Liberals will match Labor’s promise to duplicate the carriageway but the party is now reassessing its costings on the policy.

    In a moment of political farce, messages had been sent to the media this morning cancelling a planned expressway announcement until the afternoon.

    But the announcment was again deferred at the 2pm press conference, when Mr Lucas turned up instead of Opposition Leader Isobel Redmond and Treasury spokesman Steven Griffiths.

    Mr Lucas said the Liberals would now announced a policy to duplicate the expressway later in the campaign but would not say when or give any details of the plan, arguing the Liberals needed to check their costings because the Government had suddenly found more money in the Budget.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/how-isobel-redmond-was-trumped-on-the-southern-expressway-issue/story-fn2sdy0y-1225831351272

    I’m glad the campaign has finally moved on from the opposition criticising an 8-year old government, to policies. Now the Libs can really be exposed for the complete and utter inept and unelectable rabble they are.

  14. Re bob1234 @ 304, sorry for the delayed response:

    Bob said: “There is no popular independent running thus far. And yet you seem to think there’s a strong chance it will be won by an independent? Can I please have some of what you’re smoking?? :D”

    Bob, you obviously have no idea about what’s happening in Mount Gambier. The Grant District Council mayor, Don Pegler, is a declared independent candidate and is probably the frontrunner at this stage.

    He unofficially has Rory McEwen’s endorsement and will almost certainly receive preferences from Family First and Labor.

    I am the editor of The Border Watch.

  15. Thanks for the info from Mt Gambier Michael. Its interesting you say that about Mr Pegler – there certainly has been no publicity about him in the Advertiser. But then, I guess they will be in love with the liberal candidate in any case. I might have to re-think my Mt Gambier prediction …

  16. [Its interesting you say that about Mr Pegler – there certainly has been no publicity about him in the Advertiser.]

    Agreed.

    [But then, I guess they will be in love with the liberal candidate in any case.]

    From what I hear, Mt Gambier are in love with Lib Candidate Steve Perryman, as he is a very popular Mayor of Mt Gambier…

    But I stand to be corrected. May Mt Gambier remain in non-Liberal hands 🙂

  18. [He unofficially has Rory McEwen’s endorsement and will almost certainly receive preferences from Family First and Labor.]

    Are you sure? I heard the Libs and FF were looking at a deal which guaranteed FF give the Libs their prefs in the lower house in exchange for the Libs giving FF their prefs in the upper house.

  21. [TREASURER Kevin Foley has accused the Liberal Party of a shoddy approach to costing their major projects.

    He released Government analyses of Liberal infrastructure projects, and says they prove the Opposition has vastly underestimated the cost of the Southern Expressway, a Royal Adelaide Hospital rebuild, and their city stadium.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/treasurer-kevin-foley-accuses-liberal-party-of-underestimating-cost-of-major-infrastructure-projects/story-fn2sdwup-1225831792660

    😀

  23. [They always say that. The Libs have said the same about the new RAH. The public never believes costings from either side.]

    But at least we’re *finally* moving on to debates on policy rather than personalities, personal lives, and sideshows. It’s refreshing.

  27. [Sandra was refreshingly progressive in the Dickensian upper house]

    I don’t doubt her progressive credentials, but as a comment in the article said, it’s the definition of thrashing a dead horse…

  28. #417

    I am confused.

    Has Rann settled his actions “in toto” against Channel 7 and the ABC – so that the cases are no longer alive ( the hint of this comes from the statement he is pursuing legal action in respect of claims of a sexual relationship – but not against Channel 7).
    If he is no longer pursuing a case against Channel 7 for an allegation of a sexual relationship – it would seem to mean that he has dropped his further claims in the original defamation action that he was defamed because of an allegation he had a sexual relationship.

    Whether he did or did not have a sexual relationship is probably of no consequence – if I understand it he was not in a stable relationship with anyone else at the time – EXCEPT that Rann has put his credibility on the line by denying he had a sexual relationship when the story frst broke.

    This Chantelois affair gets curioser and curioser. It’s impact is not now whether he did or did not have a sexual relationship – BUT whether he did or did not tell the truth when he denied a sexual relationship.

  29. [It’s impact is not now whether he did or did not have a sexual relationship – BUT whether he did or did not tell the truth when he denied a sexual relationship.]

    Most people I know just assume he is lying and don’t care whether he’s lying or not. The main problem with Chanto is that it keeps derailing his narrative and distracting him and the media from whatever message he’s trying to get out.

    I can’t work out who he’s still suing and he’s not telling us.

  30. I’ve heard it might be New Idea but it could be any of the media who repeated the story without care and have also potentially defamed Rann.

    I don’t agree that most people think Rann is lying. Most people are sensible and are aware that they don’t know. I do agree that they mostly don’t care. But MCs behaviour lately could almost be a plus for Rann. You certainly hear some fairly cross words about MC’s behaviour and the Advertiser opinion column yesterday by female journo was similar.
    And it also takes wind out of the Liberals sails as it is usually the election campaign where Opposition get more coverage.

  31. Wakefield

    I genuinely haven’t met a single person who cares. Very few people I’ve met believe him.

    Chanto is going over the top. She’s an angry woman. The woman scorned routine is wearing a bit thin.

  32. The Advertiser has a marginal seats look at Chaffey. Sitting MP Karlene Maywald, an Independent, but strangely a Minister in the Rann Labor government, is re-contesting the seat.

    A poll has:
    Liberals’ Tim Whetstone – 36%
    Maywald – Independent – 27%
    Labor – Roly Telfer – 13 %
    Greens – James Jordan – 3 per cent
    Family First – Jack Papageorgiou – 10%

    It’s one month to the election on 20 March – and it will be interesting to see what inducements Labor offers the electors of Chaffey, to encourage them to vote for Maywald.
    Don’t back Labor, voters tell Maywald

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