Morgan: 56.5-43.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll shows Labor’s two-party lead at 56.5-43.5, down from the surprisingly strong 58.5-41.5 recorded a fortnight ago. Labor is down 1.5 per cent on the primary vote to 46 per cent and the Coalition are up 2.5 per cent to 38 per cent, with the Greens down 1.5 per cent to 8.5 per cent. Other news:

• Belinda Neal faces a preselection challenge in Robertson from Deborah O’Neill, education teacher at the University of Newcastle and narrowly unsuccessful state candidate for Gosford in 2003. According to Peter van Onselen of The Australian, O’Neill’s challenge has “the tacit approval of NSW Labor Right powerbrokers”, with Labor sources backing recent reports that party polling shows Neal headed for defeat. John Della Bosca, however, is feared to be ready to “pull out all stops to save his wife”. Members of Labor’s Ourimbah have passed a motion calling on Belinda Neal to bow out, but according to Neal, the branch consists of “approximately six members”. Interestingly, the Prime Minister has been making positive noises about Neal recently. The Daily Telegraph reports police officer Darren Jameson has as expected been preselected as Liberal candidate, despite earlier suggestions former member Jim Lloyd would seek to make a comeback.

• Labor’s member for the north Queensland seat of Dawson, James Bidgood, has announced he will bow out at the next election for health reasons. Bidgood gained the seat from Nationals member De-Anne Kelly in 2007 after picking up a 13.2 per cent swing, and has been chiefly noted since for offering the media pictures he had taken of a protester setting fire to himself in front of Parliament House, and saying the global financial crisis was a result of God “bringing judgement”. Labor’s margin after the election was 3.2 per cent, which the redistribution has reduced to 2.4 per cent.

• David Elliott, chief executive of the Civil Contractors Federation and one-time press secretary to Opposition Leader Peter Collins, has launched a preselection challenge against state upper house member and Right faction powerbroker David Clarke. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Elliott previously had his eyes on the lower house seat of Riverstone. He unsuccessfully contested preselection for the federal seat of Mitchell against Clarke’s arch-rival of the Right, Alex Hawke. Clarke has the backing of Barry O’Farrell, and according to Salusinszky may find unlikely support from the Left. Nonetheless, Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reckons Clarke to be “at serious risk of losing” due to backing for Elliott from Nick Campbell, state party president and an ally of Hawke.

• The Nationals have preselected David Gillespie to run against independent Rob Oakeshott in Lyne.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the timetable for the federal redistribution of Victoria, which Antony Green explains will definitely not be in effect before the next election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,180 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  2. 1098

    Here you go! Not very user friendly I agree though

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantity_theory_of_money

    Basically relates some measure of monetary base with some measure of nominal economic activity – but the extent to which this goes to the price level versus real economic activity is subject to the long and variable lags.

    Perhaps more visibly has been recent pricing of commodities. Yes China et al are strong sources of real demand. However, the pricing of most commodities in USD also means that it can be a measure of inflation caused by more USD (monetary looseness); thus for example, could cause inflation in USD terms (but not say EUR terms).

    I would think the experience/causation of the 70s stagflation is/was one of the more interesting economic controversies. The extent to which institutional structures (eg tariffs; strong organised labour etc) encouraged/caused inflation is open. Probably a reflection of my advancing years, but I am more persuaded that these factors were more important in thinking of very long term changes in supply curves and that the moves in monetary base was the essential condition to the inflation; and the US experience of breaking inflation through its tighter monetary policy under Volcker is persuasive to me on this.

  3. Dario #109o

    “Interesting that you should say that Don because all the teachers I have spoken to about it don’t seem to be bothered with it at all.”

    4 teachers in my family, and no complaints. Yes it’s anecdotal evidence I know, but the anti-myschoolerites have been trotting out theirs…

    National Tests focus on literacy & numeracy – the educational equivalent of focusing on a tall building’s foundations. If kids don’t master literacy & numeracy, they’re, at best, seriously educationally disadvantaged – educationally “stuffed” in fact! There are very few reasons, affecting a very small number of students, why any well-taught kid with an IQ of 85 (75, with good teachers) or better should not have sufficient mastery to cope with society’s normal demands, and those of an appropriate job. All other excuses offers are just “copping out” by blaming the victim – the kid!

    With good teachers, kids in a low socio-economic school can equal the results of those in elite private schools – trust me, 2 of my first 4 schools (1960s-mid70s) were in the slums, the other 2 poor semi/rural, and they did!

    One result of My School is that there will be some Very Serious Arse Kicking, of principals by Dept of Ed/ CEO/ School Boards; of teachers by principals – and by principals of non-performing teachers. With a lot of luck, there’ll be an end to teaching to the latest “In” ways of “teaching” [” ” sic] literacy & numeracy, and a return to “whatever I have to do to get the kid to master literacy & numeracy,” (“look & say”, phonics, whatever) and to hell with the latest teacher Ed Faculty fave.

    Re Teachers Unions: At my first “induction” lecture after becoming an “Admin Team” member, a Director, a former TU President, said:

    The organisation charged with protecting the interests of students is the Department of Education; the organisation charged with protecting the interests of teachers is the Teachers Union. Never confuse the two

    He then added words to the effect that, “You’ll discover that the worst teachers on your staff invariably pay their Union Fees well in advance,” a sentiment repeated by every Industrial Officer I knew – & I knew many!

    For a long time, a teacher who didn’t pay Union Fees (unfinancial) was suspended and the Union required to notify the Dept. of unfinancial Members. I believe lists went in long after compulsory unionism disappeared. No one wants lousy teachers, not even IOs who were, themselves, teachers; but Teachers Unions’ are duty bound to look after their interests as long as they’re financial members.

  4. [I would think the experience/causation of the 70s stagflation is/was one of the more interesting economic controversies.]
    You are forgetting OTHER problems in the 1970s. Most countries had relatively high tariffs, far higher than they are now, so countries couldn’t import deflation. There was also the oil shocks that massively increased energy costs in a very short period, the U.S. even had to institute speed limits and petrol rationing!

    Also, keep in mind that Alan Greenspan was one of the monetarists who got the U.S. into their mess. He had this great idea that you could leave interest rates low and you wouldn’t create a bubble based on bad debt.

  5. TP@1088:

    [Good to see the US traders are confident….not.]

    TP, I value your occasional snippets about the share market and the US. Much appreciated.

  6. Have all these schools worked out that rorting the NAPLAN results won’t work. If they all improve their results by 10% they all end up the same as the results are compared against each other.

    WTF?? Did I just see KK playing rugby on TV???

  7. Shows on
    I suspect most monetarists have disowned Greenspan; easy after the fact of the GFC no doubt, but there was a lot of disquiet about the “Greenspan put” well before things went pear-shaped.

    I think Volcker is more the monetarists’ policy monetarist.

    In a way, the very loose Greenspan policy did cause inflation – except it became manifest in house prices, share prices, etc. Less so in goods (no doubt due to the structural factors you mention like tariff reductions, opening of China etc). Concerns from some commentators are that Ben Bernanke are that these policies are being perpetuated. An interesting site on this is:
    http://www.prudentbear.com/

    I of course, dont know if there will be a significant rise in inflation; however, I think the economic outlook is very challenging, risk of verious outcomes, one of which could be escalation of inflation. Fortunately, the AU government/RBA seems to be going pretty well working through issues so far.

  9. [I suspect most monetarists have disowned Greenspan]
    Most monetarists have disowned monetarism because of the financial crisis. We are all Keynesians now.

  10. [If they all improve their results by 10% they all end up the same as the results are compared against each other]

    However unlikely that would be, year to year comparisons of an individual school’s scores would still look good for them if they improve by 10%

  11. On the US economy debate- Greenspan was more knowledgeable about, and had studied more details of, the US housing market than any person on earth bar maybe half a dozen over a 30+ year period.

    Yet he still persisted with his monetary policy regime that can be pretty much described as Liquidity! Liquidity! Liquidity! as being the answer to every question.

    The fact that he spent so much time studying the very market his policies not only ended up destroying, but which ultimately took the US economy and a quarter of the worlds financial system with it, stands testament to just how completely and utterly incompetent that hack was at both his scholarship and his central bank stewardship.

    And I say this with a clear conscience of long being a Greenspan critic, from back in the days when it was very, very unpopular to be seen as such.

    This Greenspan bloke came into the central bank job with his most recent CV entry being a spiv that advised large amounts of people to invest in the S&L debacle just before it all went tits up.

    He wasn’t fit to be a bank teller in Dicktown, New Jersey.

  13. Just to add, Central Bankers cannot afford to be wrong – and we can’t afford for them to be grindstone ideological.

    We are lucky to have not only Glenn Stevens, but his predecessor and the RBA staff.

    When David Penberthy let the Daily Telegraph run with that front page story carrying the headline “Is this Australia’s most useless man” with a picture of Stevens underneath, it was the lowest point in the history of media responsibility that this country has ever, ever witnessed.

    The fact that there was only a handful of us in the media that came out and smacked Penberthy around for being a complete arseclown was the moment I realised that 95% of Australia’s media wasnt worth a pinch of shit in a dark cupboard.

  17. Maybe they should run a front page picture of Penberthy with the caption ‘Is this the greatest pig in Australian media?’ Problem is there are many who would in the battle for that prize.

    The Daily Telegraph should be licking his shoes about now for helping save their jobs. I wonder if Penberthy or the DT ever sent Stevens a letter of appology?

  18. Laocoon – he’s the poor schmuck that’s left to clean up the mess. Considering the size of the monetary turd that Greenspan left on the economic carpet of the US and around the world, we’ll never probably know just how good, bad or otherwise Bernanke actually is. He doesn’t really have the luxury of doing anything other than wallow around in crisis management.

  20. [He doesn’t really have the luxury of doing anything other than wallow around in crisis management.]
    And trying to get some reforms through so that future fed chairman don’t have the power to create such a mess.

  21. There’s no town called Dicktown at that location, which is part of the suburbs of Camden, and the sites listed divert to Sicklerville, which is a few streets south. Maybe there was once a locality called Dicktown there, but for obvious reasons the name has been dropped and the area has been subsumed into Sicklerville.

    This does lead me to ask, however, how the GFC has affected Scrooge McDuck’s bank in Duckburg. Why has this received no media coverage?

  22. pseph

    one of the points he makes is about the reichswehr being an instrument of the state and ultimately this opine lead to the creation of the SS etc.

    Granted the book was solely not about his prison experiences,but he does mention it

    I can see the distinction tho between [about] and [in]

    🙂
    ps have you read it and his ramblings about the south tyrol?

  26. [Insiders Transcript with Abbott:]

    Thanks, Frank.

    [A school teacher, a single teacher on $80,000 a year, hardly rich, he or she is going to be $545 a year worse off on the Government’s own figures after compensation. A nurse and a teacher with two kids on $120,000 a year, they’re going to be $668 a year worse off, even on the Government’s own calculations. She says 92 per cent of families will be compensated. Only 50 per cent will be fully compensated. That’s millions of households worse off under the Government’s great big new tax. ]
    http://www.liberal.org.au/news.php?Id=4691

  27. Gus, I read MK many years ago. I have a German edition but my German isn’t (yet) good enough to read it, assuming I wanted to. I haven’t read the “second book” although it has now been published in English.

    South Tyrol was a difficult issue for the Nazis, because it could only be claimed for the Reich at the risk of provoking Mussolini, whom Hitler greatly admired. In 1941 it was decided to solve the problem by resettling the South Tyrol Germans somewhere in the East, although of course they didn’t want to go. In 1943 the matter resolved itself when Mussolini was overthrown. Germany then annexed not only South Tyrol but also Trento, Friuli and Veneto, which of course had once been Austrian.

  28. Possum,

    [Considering the size of the monetary turd that Greenspan left on the economic carpet of the US and around the world,]

    Looking through Greenspan’s Wikipedia entry, It is hard to comprehend how he was given such poor oversight and let do so much of what directly caused much of the financial problems the world is now in.

    He seems to be a wizard at deflecting criticism and blame elsewhere. GW cops a well deserved serve but ultimately it was Greenspan himself the was the root cause!
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Greenspan

  29. 1126 – those number don’t seem to match the govt figures. They also assume the family is currently has average consumption and makes no changes to their consumption due to price changes.

  30. Scorpio @ 1099
    [My reference was to Abbott’s interview this morning on “Insiders”!…. [Have a listen to the interview and your veracity of opinion may have to be altered!]
    Before posting I went to the Insiders web site because I heard Abbott speak and I was not going to rely on my memory about what he said. Unfortunately the written transcript was not available at the time. I don’t listen to audio or view youtube clips, etc because I share a pc and we have a monthly internet quota.

    You said one thing, Polyquats said something else about what he said in the same interview. I was not having a go at either of you. Politicians repeat the same mantras and spiel ad nauseum so I went elsewhere to find a quote from Tony Abbott.

    I will continue to check the veracity of unsubstantiated opinion and comments made on PB.

  31. [Just look at how low Australia’s govt debt:GDP is.]
    I hope ONE piece of Labor party advertising during the election is a graph comparing Australia’s sovereign debt to every other country in the world. It could be hand delivered to every house in the country.

  33. 1058 Gary Bruce-

    In that Lateline interview, Senator Wong was repeatedly asked if the Government would release the modelling it has from Treasury, showing the costs that would be involved in cutting emissions by greater than 5% (eg 10% – 15% – 20% – 25%). Senator Wong clearly answered in the negative, on the basis that 5% (and only 5%) is the Government target. What they may or may not do if circumstances somehow change at some future point does not change their actual position, which is 5%.

    It may well be that 25% is a reasonable target if (and only if) ‘the world’ is on board, however there is still a lot of space between 5% and 25% and and I have seen no convincing argument that a target somewhat higher than 5% is not both achievable and affordable. I have also seen no explanation of how we will achieve 60% by 2050 if we only have 5% by 2020.

    As you have said previously, ultimately there has to be a political solution. Hopefully the Government and the Greens can come to a suitable compromise and find two other backers in the senate. If not, we will either have to wait until after 1st July 2011, or until after parliament resumes following a Double Dissolution, to get any compromise through.

    This issue aside, I have always thought (and suspected that Mr Rudd thought) that a half senate election, after serving a full term, would suit him best electorally. Given the increased negativity and belligerence of the Coalition however, Mr Rudd may now be more concerned that the Senate will block a great deal of legislation up to July 2011, and may therefore prefer a Double dissolution, in August, to prevent that.

  35. Scorpio said:
    [Now he has added a nurse with two kids on $120k per year!

    Wow, how come my BH, a nurse, qualified to work in any hospital dept including intensive care, accident & emergency, maternity etc, gets about “half” that.]

    Insiders transcript of interview with Abbott:
    [A nurse and a teacher with two kids on $120,000 a year, they’re going to be $668 a year worse off, even on the Government’s own calculations. She says 92 per cent of families will be compensated.]
    I will let the readers make up their own minds.

  36. Pegasus
    [I will continue to check the veracity of unsubstantiated opinion and comments made on PB.]

    Should be more of it! 😉

    It’s a pity sometimes that people can regularly challenge posters here “without” checking first before they challenge.

    I have no problem with being challenged as long as it is a genuine enquiry based on better information than that which I based my statement on and not just a partisan “shot”!

    We can all learn from others who have access to better information than we individually do!

  37. Possum,

    [Scorpio, you’d be hard pressed to find a person in the last 120 odd years who has created a larger net-detriment to human welfare in the US than Alan Greenspan.]

    The beggar should hand back all those awards given to him. He certainly doesn’t deserve them!

    [Greenspan was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the highest civilian award in the United States, by President George W. Bush in November 2005.[76] His honorary titles include Knight Commander of the British Empire, bestowed in 2002 and Commander of the Légion d’honneur (Legion of Honor). In 2006, Greenspan was awarded the Department of Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service.[77]

    In 2004, Greenspan received the Dwight D. Eisenhower Medal for Leadership and Service, from Eisenhower Fellowships. In 2005, he became the first recipient of the Harry S. Truman Medal for Economic Policy, presented by the Harry S. Truman Library Institute. In 2007, Greenspan was the recipient of the inaugural Thomas Jefferson Foundation Medal in Citizen Leadership, presented by the University of Virginia.

    On December 14, 2005, he was awarded an honorary Doctor of Commercial Science degree by NYU, his fourth degree from that institution.[78]]
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Greenspan

  38. Pseph

    In the book the main reason given that H. didnt publish was the fact you mentioned

    ie he didnt want to upset M.

    The book was written in late spring 1928 and the South Tyrol issue is mentioned frequently

    But interestingly the treaty of Rapallo (whereby gerrmans trained in air schools and tank training in russia-in contravention of versailles) and other intrigues also led ultimately to the book never being published in H’s time.

    He states that the reichswehr role in suppressing his putsch led to his insistence that the wehrmacht stay out of poice affairs and the creation of the SS and gestapo.

  39. Pegasus,

    [I will let the readers make up their own minds.]

    Not quite sure where you were going with that?

    The comment you referred to was a follow-on from an earlier one where I questioned Abbott’s figure of $80k per annum for a NSW teacher.

    It follows then that “if” it can be deduced that he was referring to a “family unit” in his Insiders address, that the nurse would be only on $40k if the teacher was on $80k!

    Or alternatively, both the teacher and nurse singly were suddenly on $120k “each”!

    Either it was a “slip-up” or Abbott was being deliberately obtuse and happy for people to make their own assumption about the figures he quoted!

  40. those money hungry greedy US Banks , offshoots & cronies living off & there bonusess etc that helped GFC get my contempt for misery they’ve caused far & wides

  41. ron

    if you believe sarah palin its all barry’s fault and the yanks are putting their children inyo debt

    Yi Yi Yi

    [After all the talk and the other Republicans pulling out, Alaska’s very own ex-Gov. Sarah Palin showed up Saturday night at the national Tea Party convention in Nashville (with Piper).

    And, by and large, she told the crowd in the darkened banquet room what it wanted to hear, judging by the frequent applause. Opening with a hearty and well-received: “Happy Birthday, Ronald Reagan!”]

    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2010/02/sarah-palin-tea-party-speech-video.html

  42. Pegasus
    Posted Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

    Insiders transcript of interview with Abbott:

    “A nurse and a teacher with two kids on $120,000 a year, they’re going to be $668 a year worse off, even on the Government’s own calculations. She says 92 per cent of families will be compensated”

    ‘I will continue to check the veracity of unsubstantiated opinion and comments made on PB.’

    I already do Found
    PB a model of accuracy ,
    well maybe not troothy , PY & Bob 123456

    but you could use your time on Abbott acuracy , a serial liar
    like th $668 figure is plucked out of what but you accept it Yet it apart from relevent othr deductions depends on incomes of both each & indiv tax payable

    apart from he does not say ‘combined’ income anyway

  43. Gus

    i said its mainly Dems congress since end 2006 who passed all those Bills & deficits & increasing debt

    Briefly about 5 hrs later posted a chart that proved my case showing rise of USA debt to GDP from 2006 spiking higher & highers rite up to now And it will keep going w/out rein in

    As to POTUS’s Bush & Obama natural they share blame , but my focus was on Dems congress , both houses

    please dont bring up Sarah Palin , it sends diogenes into sexuakl overdrive , he;s intimidate by strong women

  45. Ron

    I blame GW Bush
    from the get go he instituted a lax financial regime and the LTMC was just the start

    barry is in the role of FDR and needing to create a ‘new deal’

    GW is already ranked as the worst prez and his band of neocons rooted the world financial system

    I doubt the house or senate dems had the balls to stand up to GW.

    Remember GW had already sold the farm before barry took over

    🙂

  46. Neilsen 54/46
    CPRS has 56% support.
    43% support government’s climate change policies, 30% support Abbott’s.
    Rudd’s approval 60%, Abbott’s 44%
    Prefered PM 58/31 in favour of Rudd
    [Labor has fallen by 2 points on a two-party basis, but retains a solid 54-46 per cent lead, while support for its trading scheme is down by 10 points since late November.

    The first Nielsen poll since Mr Abbott became opposition leader in December has him off to a good start, with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd losing ground on both personal approval and as preferred prime minister since November, when Malcolm Turnbull was his opponent.

    The emissions trading scheme (ETS), facing another parliamentary defeat, is still supported by a strong 56 per cent.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/abbott-leads-poll-revival-20100207-nksn.html

  48. Take a look at the headline will ya “Abbott leads poll revival”
    When I saw that I thought “Oh no.” Then had a look at the figures. Umm, not bad.

  49. Unfortunate Gus stats ar as i said

    from end 2006 fro Dems controlled both Congress houses

    there ar enuf othr issues that alone make Bush prob worst POTUS in US history anyawy

    Also there is terrible role of Greenspan , who Reserve Chairman had responsibilities as well incl credit worthiness critwria & liquid

    Then there’s th 1998 Finance Steagle Act that got repealed that had lasted some 60 years

    so alot of players incl Obama & Bush , but over in USA its all one sides fault or t th othr But it is not so , so among all blames to go around thats why selected Dems 2 houses for actualy passing Bills that created monster deficits & debt (grafs show this there from 2006) , with other players also in blame rings abit

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