Nielsen: 54-46

The latest Nielsen poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, down from 56-44 in November. The Coalition is up four points on the primary vote to 41 per cent, with Labor steady on 42 per cent (no figure is provided for the Greens as far as I can see). The Prime Minister’s personal ratings have taken a hit, his approval rating down six to 60 per cent and disapproval up four to 33 per cent. The poll is the first since Tony Abbott became Liberal leader, and finds him with 44 per cent approval and 41 per cent disapproval. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 58-31, compared with 67-21 in the twilight of Turnbull’s leadership. The sample size was 1400. Elsewhere:

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Paul Nicolaou, the Liberal Party fundraiser who failed to retain John Brogden’s old seat of Pittwater at a 2006 by-election, will seek preselection for the state upper house. Also in the hunt for the three “at large” positions on the Liberal ticket (the remaining places are selected on a regional basis) are moderate incumbent Catherine Cusack; Peter Phelps, former chief-of-staff to defeated Eden-Monaro MP Gary Nairn (whose alleged political smarts once led him to compare Nairn’s Labor opponent, war hero Mike Kelly, to a Nazi concentration camp guard); Natasha MacLaren-Jones, Right faction state party vice-president and former staffer to Senator Helen Coonan; Dai Le, a former Radio National producer who ran in Cabramatta at the 2008 by-election held after the departure of Reba Meagher; Pat Daley, a former Salvation Army spokesman; and Frank Oliveri, a Fairfield councillor said to be backed by David Clarke. They might yet be joined by Clarke himself if he proves unable to retain his existing position as the candidate representing north-western Sydney. Clarke hopes to retain that position through a deal in which he will back Cusack in exchange for support from moderates. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Clarke’s foes in the Alex Hawke camp claim he could secure as few as 30 of the available 90 votes, with many moderates allegedly refusing to fall in as directed behind Clarke. As well as the Hawke-backed David Elliott, the position will be contested by “Robyn Preston, a Hills councillor, Tony Issa, a Parramatta councillor, and Nick Tyrrell, a Blacktown councillor”.

• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Robyn Parker, Liberal state upper house member and factional moderate, will contest preselection for the Labor-held lower house seat of Maitland after recognising she will be unable to retain her existing position. While it was reported last year that the way had been smoothed for her to win the Maitland nomination through the amendment of the preselection timetable, Ian Kirkwood of the Newcastle Herald reports she faces rival contenders in Maitland councillors Bob Geoghegan and Stephen Mudd and Newcastle councillor Brad Luke. The issue will be decided by 30 local branch members and eight head office representatives on Saturday, February 21.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports three candidates have confirmed they will put their names forward for Labor preselection in Macarthur: Nick Bleasdale, the candidate in 2007, Paul Nunnari, former wheelchair athlete and adviser to state MP Graham West, and Greg Warren, the deputy mayor of Camden. Hughes is said by Coorey to be claimed by the Right, factional home to candidates Greg Holland and Brent Thomas, but the Left might yet seek to upset the Right’s applecart by putting forward Liverpool mayor Wendy Waller. Both have been made winnable by redistribution and the impending departure of their Liberal members, Danna Vale and Pat Farmer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,247 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46”

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  3. Vera,
    I’m delighted that your report on the Indigenous Stars vs. NRL Stars game was very close to my posts here in PB while the game was in progress. It was of the most enjoyable Rugby League “Community” events I can recall, not to mention a real cracker of a game.

    Of course, this wasn’t worthy of a mention on “Insiders” this morning, as they wouldn’t want anything to detract from their meme that “Rudd has lost the ability to communicate with ordinary people” and that he’s “burnt out” from micromanaging all his ministers.

  4. BH
    Someone scanned the Hearald earlier and all they could come up with was a story that Conway went skiing with Stoke of channel 7 when he was on hols in Canada!

  5. [BTW – just read a comment that Ch9 was going to make announcement today tht would rock the Rudd Govt. – did they?]
    Where did you see that BH?

  9. Looks like Bill Gates might save the world. He’s going to invest in “nuclear batteries” which are similar to IFRs and use depleted uranium to power them. Thankfully we have someone who is capable of forward thinking because we aren’t going to get it from poll-driven politicians who can’t see beyond the next election.

    [Gates spent a significant portion of his speech highlighting nuclear technology that would turn spent uranium — the 99 percent of uranium rods that aren’t burned in current nuclear power plants — into electricity.

    That technology could power the world indefinitely; spent uranium supplies in the U.S. alone could power the country for 100 years, he said.

    A “traveling wave reactor” would burn uranium waste slowly, meaning a 60-year supply could be added to a reactor at once and then not touched for decades, he said.]

    http://edition.cnn.com/2010/TECH/02/12/bill.gates.clean.energy/?hpt=T2

  15. Briefly

    [ delusional, py? pas moi. the pb-ers clearly do not trust you. there is no illusion about that.]

    What you are really saying is that you do not trust me. That is fine…I wouldn’t expect you to do so.
    As for others – they can make up their own minds.

  16. [Gary & BH
    It was said on last nights news too aparently
    This is all we could find]
    Well if that’s it, it is a bit of a fizzer Vera.

  17. Hemingway
    I liked how the Aboriginal boys had all done some artwork on a didgeridoo during the week’s training and presented it to Darren Lockyer and his team after the game.
    Nice touch, what reconciliation is all about 🙂

  18. The reality is beginning to dawn on me from PB posts this morning about the All-Star game that most PB’ers don’t check posts from the previous evening. Ah, life is one long, unbroken education process, so thank heavens my “Barnabyish” and “Joycean” learning curve won’t bring down any school’s ranking on the “My School” League table! 🙂

  20. Vera,

    Thanks for bringing that up about the didgeridoo. I admit to being salty-eyed when Campbell presented it to Lockyer, two of the finest men ever to play the game.

  22. jv

    [But what is she doing wandering around Adelaide, far from the centre of the action?]

    Perhaps Penny Wong was in Adelaide to negotiate with Mr X.

  23. PY,

    I reckon your comments are reasonably coherent, or at least entertaining. However, when it comes to trusting, the first image which springs to mind is that of the large sandstone rock formation in the southern part of the Northern Territory, specifically in relation to how far it could be thrown. 🙂

  25. Gary

    In the absence of any evidence that Conroy received hospitality from Stokes which he did not declare, that story is way lamer than a fizzer. It’s a complete non-event.

  26. Socrates #4005

    I hadn’t seen the Qld poll but am not entirely surprised. I was back in Brisbane a few weeks ago and was staggered by the amount of traffic congestion – as bad as anywhere in Sydney.

    Funding-wise, Brisbane’s current traffic mess is a joint BCC, state gov & fed gov one. Ditto who’s responsible for what parts of the mess! You can’t have done much mingling with Briz locals if you don’t know that – or you don’t know the following:

    BTW: Most Bris road/ tunnel/ bridge construction (as on the WaterGrid) is 24/7

    1. Much of the current congestion is caused by Liberal Lord Mayor Cam Newman’s tunnel-building & roadworks – as every Brisbanite knows. Frustrating, yes; but LM “Cando”, who’s a good showman, has turned his mess into local tour stops – Open Weekend in Clem7 tunnel & the like. Sure there have been a heap of complaints re dust, noise etc; but against The [Liberal] Council And Brisbanites can also rattle off completion dates – most well ahead of schedule. Yes, it’s crook; but … What comes after “but” does not cheer Cam’s ALP-Opposition’s heart.

    2. According to both ALP & LNP re Election 2009 (I’m told by reliable sources), Anna Bligh’s share of the mess (then inc. the water grid – her pet project now finished) is what got her “over the line” last election. As for current snafus, Yes, they’re crook; but … What comes after “but” does not cheer the State Opposition’s heart.

    3. Some of the chaos is also Federal, esp the Ipswich Motorway – much promised but never delivered by one, John Howard. Most of it will be finished by the end of the year. With Brisbanite Mother, son, siblings etc we travel the IM regularly. Before the latest diversion (round the back of Booval etc) it was already faster than in 2007 (once-nightmarish Mt Ommaney intersection is almost finished).

    Also Fed/?joint with state) is Airport Link, removing the old Hamilton Rd-Nudgee Rd gridlock. Currently, because it is 24/7 construction, it’s Whinge Centra: Dust & Noise (locals on TV last night).

    Oh, and there’s the Gateway (Bris R) & Houghton (Pine R; Bris-Redcliffe) bridge duplication – won’t improve traffic much until refurbishment of the old bridges is finished.

    So, Socrates,

    I know as a transport planner …

    why not arrange a tour of Cam’s Tunnels with City Hall – interstate/ international “fact finders” have been crawling over them since day 1. Book another with the State Minister’s office – interstate/ … Another with the Feds – interstate … You could then write the lot off on tax; maybe even get invites to the Grand Openings – seriously plural! (more tax write-offs). Perhaps get a Guest Spot at relevant conferences … (Yep! Remember “Fact finding/ conf” drill well!)

  27. [Where did you see that BH?]

    Garry it was a comment a few pages back (78 I think) that at the end of Ch9 news last night they said something big was in store for tomorrow.

    If it was the Stokes/Conroy story I’m surprised. Are they like Prissie Pyne and don’t want to comment on getting all that money. I noticed he piked answering whether he agreed the TV stations should get the money. So instead of $2bill in advertising Rudd gives them a handout by reducing licensing fees – $250mill. is a long way from Howard’s advertising budget.

    I wonder what Ch 9s audience was for that AllStars match. As someone said – not a mention today on Insiders except for Pyne saying they’d broken promises on indigenous intervention.

  28. Diogenes
    [Perhaps Penny Wong was in Adelaide to negotiate with Mr X.]
    Of course. I that case she is provisionally excused. I think it would be difficult for X to vote against a deal that is for temporary fixed price followed by a target in line with the science combined with what other nations have done by then, despite some of the things he has said.

  30. Dio wrote :
    [ In the absence of any evidence that Conroy received hospitality from Stokes which he did not declare, that story is way lamer than a fizzer. It’s a complete non-event. ]

    True. But thats not the point.

    The point is the election campaign is off and running and the aim is to throw as much mud as possible and hope like hell it sticks. Right out of the Limited News playbook and that of the other msm outlets.

  31. Get ready for more China bashing stories!
    [A sharp increase in flights between Australia and China is on the horizon as a result of a new air services agreement between the two countries.

    Mr Albanese said Australia and China were negotiating towards an “open skies” deal, which would remove most, if not all, of the existing limitations on airlines operating between the two countries.

    “Today’s announcement is a significant breakthrough, reinforcing the importance of our economic relationship with China,” he said in a statement.

    “It positions the Australian aviation industry at the forefront of the rapidly developing Chinese market.”

    Mr Albanese said nearly 1.4 million people travelled between Australia and China in 2009.]
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/more-flights-between-china-and-australia-20100214-nyw5.html

  35. [In the absence of any evidence that Conroy received hospitality from Stokes which he did not declare, that story is way lamer than a fizzer. It’s a complete non-event. ]

    Does anyone recall what Cassidy said about this earlier today ? He said –

    [ I wonder why Rudd wasn’t asked about this ?

    (ie he meant on Meet the Press) ]

    Implied answer – *Because they just got a huge benefit from the government*

  36. Truth Hurting –
    I know from the wilds of Townsville it might have seemed oh so funny to re-write that Oils song. Because, you know, Garrett was in Midnight Oil, and he is also the current Minister for the Environment. Yeah, I can see how clever you must have thoguht you were particulalrly when you landed on “Beds were Burning”. It really writes itself, doesn’t it.
    But let me just say this clearly and unequivocably – you are a turd for making light of the fact people died. And Tony Abbott is a turd for trying to make political milage out of it. I feel certain that both of you are on a “Highway To Hell” – literally.

  37. dave

    It’s fair to ask questions about the deal of cutting $250M from the license fee without writing in a clause mandating extra Australian content but the skiing thing is a load of crap. Everyone is concentrating on the wrong bit.

  38. [I wonder why Rudd wasn’t asked about this ?]
    what a cheek their ABC goons have!
    I wonder about all the soft interviews and questions not asked of the Libs interviewed on their ABC!

  39. Gary Bruce

    Is there a Conspiracy Phobia Anonymous organisation? If you are currently attending, would you recommend going to their meetings ?

  40. [Is there a Conspiracy Phobia Anonymous organisation? If you are currently attending, would you recommend going to their meetings ?]

    I think they have a minimum age of 18 before you can attend so you would need to wait a few years…

  41. [It’s fair to ask questions about the deal of cutting $250M from the license fee without writing in a clause mandating extra Australian content but the skiing thing is a load of crap. Everyone is concentrating on the wrong bit.]

    And everyone seems to forget the switch to digital tv. which is the main reason for the reduction in the fee.

  42. [Get ready for more China bashing stories!

    A sharp increase in flights between Australia and China is on the horizon as a result of a new air services agreement between the two countries.]

    Obviously to increase the import of lethal Chinese batts.

  44. [ How can Barnaby now bash China when his favourite bank account and transport provider, Clive Palmer, is holding hands with China? ]

    Palmer was interviewed by Weekend AFR.

    Couple of good bits :

    Why did you call your project *China First* ?

    [ I did it just to make the Chinese happy.

    Our letterhead has “China first – putting the Chinese people first” on it.

    We also have another letterhead saying “China First – Exporting for Australia”

    “So when we write to Canberra we use that one, and when we write to China we use the other one. Except my secretary keeps getting them mixed up.” ]

    What a guy. Not.

    AFR reports him a *genuine* maverick, *delightfully frank exchanges without polish or focus*.

    Furking hypocrite more likely.

  45. Vera #4024

    At halftime Kev and one of the Aboriginal ex players who helped organise it spoke with Gus Gould.
    Kev was his normal humble self and when given praise for putting up the money and supporting the event he deflected the praise away to others.
    He came accross really well, I felt like giving the tellie a hug

    After last week’s Q&A, I’d say today’s MSM would ignore it, but the blog/ Social networking spheres will be positive. Monday’s MSM, however, is likely to report how he can’t communicate with Indigenous people/ footballers/ etc and how insulting/ patronising he was. Either that or, as the MSM (minus SBS & some ABC) assumes a White, predominantly European audience, will just pretend it didn’t happen.

  46. This could be the reason for Abbott’s hasty hospital “policy”
    [Reforms loom as sick Aussies send health bill soaring

    JOSH GORDON AUSTRALIANS are visiting the doctor more than ever amid growing speculation the federal government is preparing to announce a major package of reforms to control spiralling health costs and set the scene for the election.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/reforms-loom-as-sick-aussies-send-health-bill-soaring-20100213-nynk.html

  47. Ozpol
    I reckon the audience for the footy 9including Kev’s interview) would be thousands of times greater than for the Insiders or other curent affairs shows.

    Kev ain’t stupid, he knows where to go to address the average Aussie face to face 😉

  48. Vera

    You see – you can’t blame working journalists for being lazy anymore.

    Josh Gordon clearly wrote that article after a lot of independent research.

  49. [Are you stating what I said is false or a line]

    Nooooo. not you, nooooooo.

    Could happen to annnnyone.

    Though I like TTFAB better, anybody who sees/ doesn’t see the missing n is seeing not seeing things.

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