Nielsen: 54-46

The latest Nielsen poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, down from 56-44 in November. The Coalition is up four points on the primary vote to 41 per cent, with Labor steady on 42 per cent (no figure is provided for the Greens as far as I can see). The Prime Minister’s personal ratings have taken a hit, his approval rating down six to 60 per cent and disapproval up four to 33 per cent. The poll is the first since Tony Abbott became Liberal leader, and finds him with 44 per cent approval and 41 per cent disapproval. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 58-31, compared with 67-21 in the twilight of Turnbull’s leadership. The sample size was 1400. Elsewhere:

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Paul Nicolaou, the Liberal Party fundraiser who failed to retain John Brogden’s old seat of Pittwater at a 2006 by-election, will seek preselection for the state upper house. Also in the hunt for the three “at large” positions on the Liberal ticket (the remaining places are selected on a regional basis) are moderate incumbent Catherine Cusack; Peter Phelps, former chief-of-staff to defeated Eden-Monaro MP Gary Nairn (whose alleged political smarts once led him to compare Nairn’s Labor opponent, war hero Mike Kelly, to a Nazi concentration camp guard); Natasha MacLaren-Jones, Right faction state party vice-president and former staffer to Senator Helen Coonan; Dai Le, a former Radio National producer who ran in Cabramatta at the 2008 by-election held after the departure of Reba Meagher; Pat Daley, a former Salvation Army spokesman; and Frank Oliveri, a Fairfield councillor said to be backed by David Clarke. They might yet be joined by Clarke himself if he proves unable to retain his existing position as the candidate representing north-western Sydney. Clarke hopes to retain that position through a deal in which he will back Cusack in exchange for support from moderates. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Clarke’s foes in the Alex Hawke camp claim he could secure as few as 30 of the available 90 votes, with many moderates allegedly refusing to fall in as directed behind Clarke. As well as the Hawke-backed David Elliott, the position will be contested by “Robyn Preston, a Hills councillor, Tony Issa, a Parramatta councillor, and Nick Tyrrell, a Blacktown councillor”.

Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Robyn Parker, Liberal state upper house member and factional moderate, will contest preselection for the Labor-held lower house seat of Maitland after recognising she will be unable to retain her existing position. While it was reported last year that the way had been smoothed for her to win the Maitland nomination through the amendment of the preselection timetable, Ian Kirkwood of the Newcastle Herald reports she faces rival contenders in Maitland councillors Bob Geoghegan and Stephen Mudd and Newcastle councillor Brad Luke. The issue will be decided by 30 local branch members and eight head office representatives on Saturday, February 21.

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports three candidates have confirmed they will put their names forward for Labor preselection in Macarthur: Nick Bleasdale, the candidate in 2007, Paul Nunnari, former wheelchair athlete and adviser to state MP Graham West, and Greg Warren, the deputy mayor of Camden. Hughes is said by Coorey to be claimed by the Right, factional home to candidates Greg Holland and Brent Thomas, but the Left might yet seek to upset the Right’s applecart by putting forward Liverpool mayor Wendy Waller. Both have been made winnable by redistribution and the impending departure of their Liberal members, Danna Vale and Pat Farmer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,247 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46”

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  1. Geez, ruawake #4091

    And everyone seems to forget the switch to digital tv. which is the main reason for the reduction in the fee.

    You wouldn’t be trying to let honesty & the facts get in the way of a Green/Tory conspiracy theory, would you?
    Spoil Sport!

  2. vera

    I mentioned this last night with OPT. Health continually reinvents the wheel and goes through cycles of centralisation and decentralisation endlessly. If you stand back and watch, you will see every model fail. In SA, we’re about to shift back to hospital boards and get rid of regional health areas the same as Abbott’s plan.

    These models are really just ways of bureaucrats occupying their time. They don’t actually do anything.

  3. [Why is the license fee less because of the switch to digital?]

    Because the analog tv signal starts getting turned off in June, it costs TV stations money for new transmission equipment.

  4. I could not help noticing on “impliers” this morning that for all the time that bloke in the middle, Mather i think, was as stable as a rock but, when he trotted out his little skite sheet to enable him to get his liNes right, his fingers and hands were trembling like he had a massive dose of Parkinsons.
    Maybe he was afraid his liNes may not come out properly.
    Would that be normal Dio that you can talk normally without any problems but when you have to read the liNes from the skite sheet your hands and fingers really tremble?

    For some reason i just thought he was fearing he may be caught out telling his liNes.

  5. What is so remarkable about post 3885 is that in “retyping” (oh that is sooo good) the passage only one character out of 177 was missed.

    And so much more remarkable that missing character, missed in the retyping (chortle chortle) alters the context of the whole sentence.

    What are the odds, go buy yourself a lottery ticket young man, or get your mum to if you are under 18.

  6. [Earth wires do not “short”]

    Actually you can make them “Live” which is more dangerous than a short.

    A short will throw out the safety switch or fuse, but a “live” Earth wire often won’t, in which case every single device in the house can become “electricified”.

  7. [ What is so remarkable about post 3885 is that in “retyping” (oh that is sooo good) the passage only one character out of 177 was missed.

    And so much more remarkable that missing character, missed in the retyping (chortle chortle) alters the context of the whole sentence. ]

    Castle – thats the best he could come up with in the 8 hours or so he had.

  8. i note u say that msm dont like rudd. I can never work out why?
    can some one enlighten me. I would of thought if they want to sell papers to us
    lot with Mr. Rudd rating high it would be could to praise all thing labor.
    then more papers would be sold
    Its a bit like ones footy team you like to read how well your team is going
    so then you sell more newspapers. ?

  9. [These models are really just ways of bureaucrats occupying their time. They don’t actually do anything.]

    Take it from a veteran of numerous NSW TAFE Department centralisation/decentralisation restructures that a prime motivation is to create even more promotion opportunities, which is why careerist bureaucrats (is there any other kind?) love them.

  10. William, thetruthhurts keeps posting his very offensive “parody” song. Could you please remove the post. I think the families of the dead deserve to be treated better than having their deaths used for “parody” and cheap political point scoring. I find it dificult to imagine anything more disrespectful and offensive, short of dancing on their graves. Thank you.

  11. [but isnt the qld election some two years away]

    Someone should make a Hitler video of this one.

    Henchman pointing at map: “Sir the latest Galaxy Poll has come in from Queensland, it shows we are down in support from the last poll, with the Liberals increasing their lead”

    Hitler: “Oh… yes, that doesn’t matter it’s only 2 years away we’ll make it up over that time”

    Henchamn looking nervous: “My Fuhrer….. Sir…. the polls show you going into a nose dive and the opposition are now 10% TPP ahead of you, and a bloke no one has heard of is now preferred Premier”

    Hitler: “Everyone thats not voting Labor next Queensland State Election, please leave the room”

    *95% of people in Room walks out*

    Hitler: “How could this have happened! I went on a god damn cooking show for christ sakes, and these ungrateful bastards want to vote me out!”

  12. Memo to Milne: If Mr Fuller really wanted something done about workplace safety, he should have written to the state minister responsible for workplace safety. Mr Milne, please pass this on to Mr Fuller, urgently. Mr Fuller may also wish to hire some quality lawyers and start suing his son’s boss. Unless, of course, his son was his own boss. The son’s badly injured girlfriend may well have a case against the son’s estate, unless she had appropriate training to be in a dangerous workplace. Memo to Milne: ‘Good investigative journalists check these sorts of things out.’

    Milne claims the letter was ‘dated’ 6 February. Question to Milne: “When was it ‘posted’?”

    Rudd’s Office claims it was received on 10 February. This is verifiable. That is to say, some time last Wednesday. That would leave about two and a half working days for the PM drop everything else involved in running a country in order to reply to a letter which was addressed to the wrong person. The normal procedure would be for the PM’s office to refer the letter to the state ministers with responsibility for workplace safety.

    Memo to Milne: The PM receives several tens of thousands of letters a year many from people who are certifiable and many who haven’t a clue about the division of federal/state responsibilities.

    So, Mr Milne, Rudd ‘ignored a direct plea’ did he? I have a question for you Mr Milne, ‘How much do they pay you per paragraph inch of absolute crap?’

  13. in today’s Australian newspaper says the Coalition leads Labor in the primary vote standings for the first time since the election.

    The poll shows the Coalition’s primary vote at 41 per cent to Labor’s 40 per cent.

    After preferences, Labor leads 52 per cent to 48, a narrower margin than the 6 per cent gap a fortnight ago.

    Kevin Rudd leads Tony Abbott as the preferred prime minister by 58 per cent to 26 per cent.

    The Opposition will see the poll boost as a good prelude to Mr Abbott’s unveiling of his climate change policy.

  14. well is this the channel nine announcement,. funny if you have apoll over weekends.
    friday sat sun usually how can it turn up to day.and note the pref pm. is no difference and what about the margin for error.

    and what about the other polls where is william Help

  15. my say, that is referring to the last Newspoll nearly two week’s ago. Abbott has already released his CC policy (for want of a better title).

  16. o thank god for that i need my wrists slapped.

    to nervous to type , we are going out to night and they are liberals and i just thought i would find and excuse not to go,, well i will
    cream the cheese cake after all.

    silly me sorry crew how did i do that. i googled the abc news now i have read i see yes.

  17. well what is the chanel
    9 announcement do you think. I dont want to be caught
    dinning with liberals before i go.
    is it the conroy thing is the letter re the insallation. ???

  18. [William, thetruthhurts keeps posting his very offensive “parody” song. Could you please remove the post. I think the families of the dead deserve to be treated better than having their deaths used for “parody” and cheap political point scoring. I find it dificult to imagine anything more disrespectful and offensive, short of dancing on their graves. Thank you.]

    Let me guess…. your a Labor Voter.

    Pathetic.

  19. Ratsars @ 3705
    [Pegasus @ # 3697
    Which Party is still supporting the ABCC? – The Labor Party.
    Just a slight case of distortion with your misleading statement.]
    What is misleading is the spin by Labor that it is abolishing the ABCC. It is abolishing it in name only.

    The Building and Construction Industry Improvement Amendment (Transition to Fair Work) Bill 2009 which was Introduced into the HoR on 17 June amends the Building and Construction Industry Improvement (BCII) Act 2005.

    These current amendments to the BCII Act will transfer the coercive powers given to the ABCC by the Howard Coalition government to a new inspectorate established within Fair Work Australia (FWA). The power to prosecute and compulsorily obtain information and documents from relevant parties will be retained. Most of the ABCC’s draconian powers, including imposition of fines and mandatory jail sentences for non-cooperation, will also be transferred.

    The Bill provides for a six-month jail sentence as the penalty for failing to submit to an “examination notice” issued by the inspectorate (the same penalty imposed for breaches of the Howard-era legislation). Examination notices issued by the FWA can compel workers or union officials to provide documents, attend interrogations and answer questions and take an oath of affirmation if required to do so. The new legislation allows a court to impose a fine of $3300 for individuals (or five times that for incorporated bodies) in addition to, or instead of, a jail sentence for breaches of the legislation.

    In a speech to the HoR on 17 June, 2009 during the Bill’s second reading, Julia Gillard argued for the retention of the coercive interrogation powers in regard to the building and construction industry. Labor accepts that separate legislation for a specific industry sector needs to remain in force.
    http://www.deewr.gov.au/Ministers/Gillard/Media/Speeches/Pages/Article_090617_112100.aspx

    On 18 June 2009, the Senate referred the provisions of the bill to the Senate Standing Legislation Committee on Education, Employment and Workplace Relations. Its report was published o 10 September 2009.

    http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/eet_ctte/abcc/report/index.htm
    [The committee majority understands that the target of the BCII Act and the ABCC has always been unlawful industrial conduct in an industrial context. The legislation does not deal with criminal behaviour. It is disappointing that this distinction is sometimes blurred by those who seek to retain the ABCC. As noted in previous inquiries, the committee majority does not agree with industry specific legislation in principle. Workers in the building and construction sector being regulated under the FW Act is the ultimate goal.]

    A minority report was written by the Greens Party. In which it recommended the Goverment withdraw the Bill and reintroduce a Bill to repeal the BCII Act, abolish the ABCC while maintaining the role of the Federal Safety Commissioner.
    [One of the key limitations of the approach embodied by the BCII Act and the ABCC is the almost exclusive focus on the actions of workers and their unions with employers seemingly targeted only due to their relations with unions. There is little focus on the problems engendered by management. It is quite clear that the ABCC has no interest in fulfilling its function in respect of investigating breaches by employers of their obligations to employees. By its own admission to ABCC does not investigate claims of underpayments or breaches of awards or agreement conditions.]
    http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/eet_ctte/abcc/report/d02.htm

    The Combined Construction Unions (UCC), ACTU and the Greens Party amongst others argue that the construction industry should fall under the general laws which apply to the rest of the workforce because the bill does not, and has never, dealt with criminal conduct. The target is industrial conduct.

    It is indeed welcome that some safeguards will be implemented. These safeguards include the right of a worker interrogated under the inspectorate’s coercive powers to be accompanied by a legal representative.

    However, the retention of the coercive powers discriminates against building workers and breaches their civil rights. Labor is supporting legislation that essentially embodies the principle that some workers are not equal before the law.

  20. I love it…. I criticise the government for the deaths of innocent Australians, and because some Labor voters don’t like me putting heat on their GOVERNMENT, they claim I’m the one disrespecting the families.

    Christ, I’ve entered the twilight zone.

    As to whats worse than making a parody song about the governments stuff up’s, I would think revoting them back in would be the biggest disrespect to their families, worse than dancing on their graves.

  21. Castle
    [ What are the odds, go buy yourself a lottery ticket young man, or get your mum to if you are under 18.]

    Stop skirting around the issue. Have the guts to say, like the other fools on here that I deliberately typed it that way.

  22. [ well what is the chanel
    9 announcement do you think. I dont want to be caught
    dinning with liberals before i go.
    is it the conroy thing is the letter re the insallation. ??? ]

    Yesterday afternoon someone said they had seen a mention on the melbourne herald-Sun website about something sensational would be in todays paper that would *rock the rudd government* or words to that effect.

    *Apparently* the *thing* is the fee reduction business for commercial tv stations and conroys skiing with Channel 7 owner.

    I think that is being confused with CH 9.

    So lets just see how the media try and spin this.

  23. thanks dave sound like a non issue. The voters take very little notice of things like that i believe.
    I had friend say to me recently do you take notice of news stories , said she could not care less, just worries about her family. I wish i was like that too, of course family comes first. But i wish i could just shelve the others stuff. I think I disliked Howard so much it became a thing with me. Glad when this year is over.

  24. I checked this weeks South Australian Government Gazette. No proclamation in their that exempts the internet from the Atkinson Electoral Act as yet. Clealy either he hasn’t had time to put pen to paper as yet or the issuing of the writs for the SA election is a far way off.

  25. PY……

    [As for others – they can make up their own minds.]

    Patently, they have. I couldn’t care less about the things you say one way or the other. I skip them for the most part.

  26. my say

    ABC Directors…2 out of 8 current directors appointed by current government. Directors have 5 year terms, commencing as per table below, so 2 new ones this year and 3 next (retyped from the ABC web site, so hopefully no typos!)…

    Mr Maurice Newman AC 1 Jan 2007
    Ms Janet Albrechtsen 24 Feb 2005
    Mr Steven Skala 6 Oct 2005
    Mr Peter Hurley 14 Jun 2006
    Mr Keith Windschuttle 14 Jun 2006
    Mr Mark Scott 5 Jul 2006
    Dr Julianne Schultz AM 27 Mar 2009
    Mr Michael Lynch CBE, AM 27 Mar 2009

  27. [“Decisions won’t be made by faceless bureaucrats in head office, decisions will be made by people who are actually walking amongst the people who are affected by those decisions.”]

    Ah Ha

    So the next phase will be to attack “faceless bureaucrats”

    How original Tone

    🙁

  28. Boerwar
    [The normal procedure would be for the PM’s office to refer the letter to the state ministers with responsibility for workplace safety.]
    Most people would have apoplexy, I think, if they knew what really happened to their letters to Ministers.
    Especially those that think the Minister is going to read their letter, link to the web site they’ve suggested, have an epiphany and immediately change Government policy. Somewhere, deep in the bowels of the Public Circus, a low to mid level drone will roll their eyes and groan before trotting out the standard responses. If the drones are lucky, it will be worth a bit of a laugh with their fellow drones.
    Not saying that happens in all cases, and certainly not suggesting that is the case for the letter Milne is referring to. Some letters can create panic and a sense of crisis in a Ministers office. Most of the time, the same drone still gets the job of preparing the response. This time though, there will be no time to roll eyes or have a giggle.

  29. Briefly
    [Patently, they have. ]

    Congratulations on your ability to divine the thoughts of “them”.

    Next you will be challenging “god” as the supreme ruler.

    Of course – that’s if you believe in that fairy tale.

  30. There is no reason that anyone should be killed by electricity in a domestic setting. Earth leakage circuit breakers and residual current devices (safety switches) should prevent virtually all deaths by electrocution.

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