Nielsen: 54-46

The latest Nielsen poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, down from 56-44 in November. The Coalition is up four points on the primary vote to 41 per cent, with Labor steady on 42 per cent (no figure is provided for the Greens as far as I can see). The Prime Minister’s personal ratings have taken a hit, his approval rating down six to 60 per cent and disapproval up four to 33 per cent. The poll is the first since Tony Abbott became Liberal leader, and finds him with 44 per cent approval and 41 per cent disapproval. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 58-31, compared with 67-21 in the twilight of Turnbull’s leadership. The sample size was 1400. Elsewhere:

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Paul Nicolaou, the Liberal Party fundraiser who failed to retain John Brogden’s old seat of Pittwater at a 2006 by-election, will seek preselection for the state upper house. Also in the hunt for the three “at large” positions on the Liberal ticket (the remaining places are selected on a regional basis) are moderate incumbent Catherine Cusack; Peter Phelps, former chief-of-staff to defeated Eden-Monaro MP Gary Nairn (whose alleged political smarts once led him to compare Nairn’s Labor opponent, war hero Mike Kelly, to a Nazi concentration camp guard); Natasha MacLaren-Jones, Right faction state party vice-president and former staffer to Senator Helen Coonan; Dai Le, a former Radio National producer who ran in Cabramatta at the 2008 by-election held after the departure of Reba Meagher; Pat Daley, a former Salvation Army spokesman; and Frank Oliveri, a Fairfield councillor said to be backed by David Clarke. They might yet be joined by Clarke himself if he proves unable to retain his existing position as the candidate representing north-western Sydney. Clarke hopes to retain that position through a deal in which he will back Cusack in exchange for support from moderates. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Clarke’s foes in the Alex Hawke camp claim he could secure as few as 30 of the available 90 votes, with many moderates allegedly refusing to fall in as directed behind Clarke. As well as the Hawke-backed David Elliott, the position will be contested by “Robyn Preston, a Hills councillor, Tony Issa, a Parramatta councillor, and Nick Tyrrell, a Blacktown councillor”.

• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Robyn Parker, Liberal state upper house member and factional moderate, will contest preselection for the Labor-held lower house seat of Maitland after recognising she will be unable to retain her existing position. While it was reported last year that the way had been smoothed for her to win the Maitland nomination through the amendment of the preselection timetable, Ian Kirkwood of the Newcastle Herald reports she faces rival contenders in Maitland councillors Bob Geoghegan and Stephen Mudd and Newcastle councillor Brad Luke. The issue will be decided by 30 local branch members and eight head office representatives on Saturday, February 21.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports three candidates have confirmed they will put their names forward for Labor preselection in Macarthur: Nick Bleasdale, the candidate in 2007, Paul Nunnari, former wheelchair athlete and adviser to state MP Graham West, and Greg Warren, the deputy mayor of Camden. Hughes is said by Coorey to be claimed by the Right, factional home to candidates Greg Holland and Brent Thomas, but the Left might yet seek to upset the Right’s applecart by putting forward Liverpool mayor Wendy Waller. Both have been made winnable by redistribution and the impending departure of their Liberal members, Danna Vale and Pat Farmer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,247 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46”

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  1. There are 4 options for a CC policy.

    A Labor/Green + others negotiated one before the election.
    A Labor/Green negotiated one when the new Senate sits in 2011
    A Labor one via a DD
    A Liberal do nothing option.

    The Greens have to negotiate with the Govt. so why not do it now?

  2. [Q: Am I happy to lose my car/flat screen tv, my computer – so I can post on poll bludger to save the environment -> <10% support]
    Except for one thing, no-one is saying you will lose these things.

  3. [I have been on four school councils – in West Heidelberg, Rosanna East, Edenhope and Hampton Park – and none of them had trouble getting members.]
    I could list mine too and we did have trouble sometimes.

  6. [The Greens have to negotiate with the Govt. so why not do it now?]

    Because the Greens would lose their biggest vote-winner – “vote for us so that we can have the BoP in the Senate and force Labor to bring in a tougher climate bill.” It’s a powerful statement and has the advantage of being true. If I thought climate was the only issue that mattered – and I’m getting close to thinking that – it would be difficult to resist. If the Greens do a deal with Labor now, if they give away their virginity cheaply, so to speak, what appeal will they have?

  8. They had Abbott on the Ten News waving his arms about and shouting. It’s not going to be too difficult for the government to portray Abbott, Hockey (after his tu. tu effort) and Barnaby as loud sideshow clowns, people you wouldn’t want running your country.

  9. Ahh, good old Their ABC:

    [julieposetti julie_posetti

    ABC’s Alison Carribine’s reporting @tonyabbottmhr addressed the “housewives of Australia” about energy savings during a TV ironing stunt 2 minutes ago from Tweetie ]

  12. 254

    Living without a car. I approve (I don`t drive or have a car or licence). Lots of walking cycling and PT then.

  19. 266

    Yes, SOME people. Not most people. Better PT, walking, cycling and other such things would dramatically reduce the need for cars.

  24. I just wish my next door neighbour would hang the washing on the line, instead of using the tumble dryer which is dynabolted to the wall under the line. 🙁

  27. Today’s Liberal Twits, I mean Tweets 🙂

    [# LiberalAus

    Speed dial for entry to Australia http://bit.ly/cZbSZz #alot 5 minutes ago from twitterfeed

    # Liberal Party LiberalAus

    Labor dodges tough decisons on migration and boats http://bit.ly/aheYLL #alot 5 minutes ago from twitterfeed

    # Liberal Party LiberalAus

    Question Time Brief – February 8, 2010 http://bit.ly/9Bys7O #alot 5 minutes ago from twitterfeed

    # Liberal Party LiberalAus

    Abbott Doorstop – Queanbeyan http://bit.ly/dlHMCi #alot 5 minutes ago from twitterfeed ]

  30. Chris Curtis… we were allowed to look under the boot of the hydrogen car, but when the big moment came, and all the assembled media had their cameras ready, it was discovered that unfortunately the driver had walked off with the keys, and the boot could not be opened.

  31. I can not see any Liberal senator voting for a ALP / Green deal, but I am less sure that one would not abstain, or arrive outside the doors to the chamber too late to enter.

  32. [Earlier, Mr Turnbull was joined by Liberal treasury spokesman Joe Hockey, and moderates Petro Georgiou and Russell Broadbent as he outlined his decision to break party solidarity and vote with Labor on an ETS.]

    Is Joe Hockey really going to cross the floor and vote for an ETS?

  33. The former would work but the latter would just cause a re-vote (as that sought of thing has done in the past).

  34. [just dont mention GAS]
    Betty,

    Until you call for the shut down of all the world’s gas power plants, you are nothing but a gigantic hypocrite, and everyone knows it.

  35. [Is Joe Hockey really going to cross the floor and vote for an ETS?]
    No, because he would have to resign from the front bench.

  36. I think what will happen is the Government will announce a series of ‘direct action’ climate change policies in the budget that will actually be costed, which will make the Liberal’s climate policy obsolete.

  38. This comment here is a classic example of the disbelief that most rusted-on Lib supporters still have about the electorate having the audacity to throw out their wonderful Howard Government.

    Shame, suck on it a bit linger, losers!

    [ALP the favourite as Rudd and Abbott enter the home straight]

    [virag0- You are describing exactly what the Labor opposition did when the Coalition were in power. The difference is now the Coalition is trying to stop Rudd from inflicting more damage on the Australian people where as Labor were trying to stop the Coalition from doing even more good for the community than what they did. Any one with half a brain must now realise that the Coalition should never have lost the last election. If Rudd were to get another term our Country will remain in debt for decades.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/alp-the-favourite-as-rudd-and-abbott-enter-the-home-straight-20100208-nlu4.html

  40. Forgetting, Scorpio, that since 1939 at the latest, the Oz Fed Government was debt-free only for a few years of the Howard Government – and during that 70 years, non Labor governments were in power for 45 of them, gaining the Australian Fiscal Wooden Spoon Hat Trick: – worst total debt in real terms; worst inflation in Oz history; highest interest rates in Oz history.

  41. Psephos

    Posted Monday, February 8, 2010 at 12:46 pm | Permalink
    ‘I heard Milne carrying on about how Abbott had joined Rudd by not making the polluters pay and welching on CC. It was truly appalling.’

    “(diog)You’ve said much the same yourself many times.”

    Finns: “When there was a mutual support for ETS between Labor and Liberals under Turnbull. “

    Yes , th Greens STOPPED a vote for a week in Senate in November on Rudds ETS

    We would ended up with a ETS NOW , but for Greens hypocracy
    There Green Senate voters were NOT needed at all , just for them to shut up in Senate for a week instead of stalling a Labor/Lib suport for Rudds 5% ETS Bill , instead Green staling has delayed Co2 reduction starting in oz

    We since had dropping suport for an ETS as I predicted 3 mths ago , because of

    Greens very publlic carping uneconamic 25% cuts & at every public appearanse knockin th very Rudd ETS itself So greens ar CC mitigaton vandals just to position to keep there voting base in tact , and therefore has lessened public ETS confidense alot

    Queston is this Seeing Greens new polisy IS NOW a 5% cut by 2020 , based on Garnauts own modeling , how stupid will Greens look opposing Rudds 5% ETS now , when there own Greens polisy per there web site is ALSO 5% ?

    (now if Troeth just abstains , then Rudds ETS can get passed now , via Greens 5 & Mr X , and maybe Penny is hoping there)

    its about time Greens stood for principal in favor of CC mitigation (forget there voters) & suported Rudds 5% ETS before all public belief in an ETS in oz drops to very dangerous politcal levels

  42. Gary Bruce
    [JV – So now 18% is enough? If no, then why not say 5% to start off with, same result.]
    Yes, as part of the new strategy, because it is the ‘new’ 25% we had to have before Copenhagen, according to Garnaut. The developing nations’ commitments were collectively greater than expected at Copenhagen, so we in the developed world get a discount apparently, and overall the 450 ppm target by 2050 can be met now with 18% by 2020. That’ll do me in these trying circumstances. With the science and economics met in the Garnaut plan, then I’m on board.

    The main problem domestically is that the government has let everyone run over the top of them without a bit of leadership since Copenhagen. Hence the poll results today on CC in the wake of the Abbott easy option, and all the sceptic noise that has not been addressed.

    The govt needs to get out there so much more pwerfully to make sure everyone understands this is a crisis. As a govt member said after Turnbull’s speech today – Turnbull put the CC imperatives better than anyone in the government has yet.

    Apparently – per Possum I think – the government has been inactive on CC because of some ludicrous worry about the male 45-54 demographic.

  43. [I suspect I’m the only wage-earning adult in the greater Canberra area who doesn’t own a car.]

    I don’t either. I walk to work and the new Redex bus service is great for getting into the Civic from my place.

  44. [There’s a transcript of the Turnbull speech up on the ABC blog ‘The Drum’.]

    I don’t know if Rudd has a speech writer or word smith but if he hasn’t he desperately needs one. He should put the vanity aside and accept that when it comes to the average non-bureaucrat he his not a good communicator with all that wordiness.

    Rudd will get into trouble if he comes up against somebody good at the sound bite and explaining things in a simple matter.

    Fortunately he is up against Abbott who can get in some good sound bites but also says a lot of dumb things. And of course Jackass Joyce is good at saying even dumber things.

  45. BH

    From looking around, the diet was based on the Brandt-Wortman Grape Diet. There were many other ingredients like walnuts, flaxseed oil, cottage cheese, vit C, berries etc.

    On this page, they have a diet called the Hospice Cancer Diet which was similar.

    I am in no way saying this will work and my patient may well have just got lucky. The diet looks very heavy duty and anyone starting it should check with their physician.

    http://www.alternativehealth.co.nz/cancer/grapediet/grape.htm

  46. Ron

    To say we would have an ETS now but for the Greens is rubbish. The ALP have made it clear they aren’t interested in the Greens and the chickens will come home to roost, now and into the future. If you hadn’t favoured Fielding over the Greens there would be one less vote to worry about now for a start. Rudd declined to negotiate with the Greens to begin with, abd the Greens did what they needed to do for their own support base, rather than the ALP. The failure of the ETS and the declining support for climate change rests with Rudd and the ALP, deal with it. You’d best hope the Greens and Left voters don’t decide at some stage to stop preferencing the ALP, cause you’d be screwed.

  47. Abbott’s logic that he did not cut Health Spending.

    [Well it’s not true. I didn’t. Back in 1996 there was a reduction in the forward estimates for the healthcare agreements. It was a reduction in the rate of growth, it wasn’t an actual cut… ]

    So they reduced the spending rate, but did not actually cut the spending rate. Hmmm
    Weasel.

  48. If Turnbull thinks he is Jesus reincarnated, why doesn’t he start his own f’ing party?

    Oh thats right.. because he’s a gutless turd, and no one would vote for a silver spoon elitist except for latte sipping inner city snobs anyways.

  50. [because he’s a gutless turd]

    If there is one thing Turnbull is not it’s a “gutless turd”. Just ask Kerry Packer or any of the people he has done business with. And watching him go down fighting when the populist denialists took over the Lib Party and dumped him showed he had plenty of guts and determination.

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