Nielsen: 54-46

4,247 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46”

1. [Turnbull was just delivered the government’s election campaign for the ETS.]

   It was a truly classic speech, I thought. The way he introduced the topic with evidence for global and moved through each of the arguments for emissions trading and against the Coalition’s ‘Great Big Con’. I couldn’t really fault it as a piece of elegant, persuasive rhetoric.

   Its only lacking was that it wasn’t fertile lode for the pithy, punchy phrases that Labor might have wanted to mine for electioneering soundbites. Turnbull speaks at a level that makes short dumbed-down phrases redundant.

   Still, I’m sure the good guys are going through it with a fine-toothed comb picking out what might be useful.

2. [Bronnie: “Poor woman’s Wilson Tuckey” – Tanner – Gold]

   Yes, that quip of BB’s didn’t turn out so well.

   The Liberals have taken a leaf from Labor and plonked Kelly O’Dwyer right in line with the camera.

3. [The Liberals have taken a leaf from Labor and plonked Kelly O’Dwyer right in line with the camera.]

   In which case she needs to learn some self discipline and not flirt and gossip with her neighbour while others are talking.

   Not a good look.

4. [In which case she needs to learn some self discipline and not flirt and gossip with her neighbour while others are talking.

   Not a good look.]

   Zoomster – O’Dwyer’s first day was awful. She didn’t stop laughing and talking all QT but I thought, give her one day. She’s unable to stop tho and has done it every day since. Certainly not a good look. If it was a Labor woman we would already have had comments from the Oppn.

5. There is only 1 option in my mind regarding Turnbull… and thats a complete and total sacking from the Liberal Party.

6. I wish Abbott would learn his subjunctives. Not “…that this House censures the Prime Minister,” but “…that this House censure the Prime Minister.”

7. Psephos (44 at 9.58am),

   In regard to the myth of young people being morally superior:
   1) How come all the previously morally superior young people turned out like their parents and grandparents?
   2) I ran into a Maoist from LaTrobe some years ago and asked him if he were still politically active. He said something about the mortgage.

   I responded (440 on the Newspoll thread) to your asking me about my thoughts on MySchool. I don’t know if you saw it as when I first returned to the thread there was no comment on it from anyone and when I later returned to the thread there were too many pages for me to scan. I think there are two articles of interest to you illustrating the problems with the site:

   ‘VICTORIAN teachers are being told to “explicitly teach” for the national literacy and numeracy tests as part of a drive to lift the state’s overall performance with the release of nationwide test results….’

   (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/students-get-new-subject-the-test/story-e6frg6nf-1225826908368)

   ‘WITHIN a few hours of the My School website overcoming its quizzical technical teething problems, the grey gnomes of at least one media empire drew forth from its feverish burrowing that great false grail of accountability, state league tables.
   ‘Melbourne High School, one of our nation’s most accomplished schools on any measure of academic performance, was ranked by this scurrilous measure as the best performing school in numeracy in the state. As principal of the school, I forewarn that this ranking and the methodology upon which it is based is not a treasure but a piece of crock….’
   (http://www.theage.com.au/national/education/why-my-school-fails-the-test-20100207-nk9c.html)

8. What, for having the integrity to stand by a policy that’s 90 per cent identical to one first advocated by Howard, and that the Liberals took to the last election?

9. Tony, in his rant against Rudd re broken promises, just reminded everyone of Howard’s core promises. Oh dear, an own goal I believe.

10. Chris, yes I saw, appreciated and agreed with your post on MySchool.

11. What are Tone and Joe raving on about, if they are trying to make a point they should make it – not spray around blatherings.

12. Psephos (44 at 9.58am),

    Then, let us hope that even more Labor Party members agree with my post on MySchool. To save others having to find it, the zoom-out view is that MySchool has some value but some problem and you’d be silly to rely on it totally to choose a school and that politically speaking it has been good for Julia Gillard.

13. [# Kelly O’Dwyer AKA Libs Julia Gillard, seems to be watching her political doppleganger’s performance at despatch box rather closely. Hmmm about 1 hour ago from web ]

    Musrum – that was Samantha Maiden’s tweet. Other woman spot the similarity immediately – esecially when O’Dwyer does her hair like Bronnie. I notice today she has gone for the young, leave it long, look.

14. I see here in Perth 6PRs top rating schlock jock Sattler has the one the only Lord Monotony on this after noon, now that will be intelligent radio,all the idiots together better get Truthy to ring in,and it will be a three ring circus.

15. [I notice today she has gone for the young, leave it long, look.]

    Which puts in direct competition with Kate Ellis – she can’t win that one.

16. A very good reply by Rudd.

17. Psephos, i heartily concur with your post @ 215!! And if Julia G is looking at O’Dwyers performance closely it will only be to work out the best way to cut her down, IF that ever becomes relevant.

    General query. Senate sits 22-26 of this month. So, if the Greens, ALP and Mr X are going to work a deal it should become obvious then?? Anyone know what the order of business for the next Senate sitting is going to be?

18. ChrisC 212 – I partly agree with you and sensible parents won’t be changing schools in a hurry. It may help some parents, who are hocking themselves to put kids through private schools, rethink their budget and their kids’ education.

    I have faith that Gillard will sort out the problems but she gets top marks for getting it up and giving parents the chance to question. It may even help some parents to become more involved with their kids’ school.

    Private business constantly assesses and reassesses it staff and outcomes. Why should the taxpayer not receive the same assessments.

19. [So, if the Greens, ALP and Mr X are going to work a deal it should become obvious then?? ]

    I don’t know where this notion is coming from. The Greens, ALP and Mr X do not have a Senate majority. So what is the basis for a deal? The Greens’ whole political strategy is based on positioning themselves to the left of Labor on climate and other issues. They have no motive for doing a deal. So far as I know Xenophon still opposes the principle of the government’s bill.

20. BH,

    There is nothing wrong with the taxpayer getting assessments, but the whole assessment of staff thing that has infiltrated schools from the private sector is a pointless, ineffective merry-go-round. I say that from having done assessments of other staff. Personally, I refused to be assessed even though it cost me several thousand dollars in bonuses under the previous government. I regarded it as unprofessional and still do.

    The NAPLAN tests proved information from mostly computer-corrected multiple-choice tests, which by their nature leave out a whole lot of valuable stuff done in schools, and I don’t just mean touchy-feely stuff, but higher order thinking skills.

    The problems in MySchool will get sorted out to make it a more rounded site, but it can never substitute for a first-hand look at the school you are considering for your children.

    MySchool won’t make parents more involved. Involvement in this state has been through school councils, which have been in place for 35 years. MySchool is a consumerist approach, not a participative one. It provides useful information, but that is all, and it has already been misused, as the AEU said it would be.

21. Could the Libs lose another unloseable election? 😉

    Abbott thinks they could.
    [The New South Wales government has seized on instability in the New South Wales Liberal Party, caused by a fierce pre-selection battle for an Upper House position.

    Some sections of the Liberal Party are warning that World War Three could erupt if the party chooses to dump David Clarke from his Upper House spot, in favour of the business lobbyist David Elliott.

    The Federal Liberal Leader Tony Abbott has written to preselectors warning the party could lose the next state election if it does not preselect Mr Clarke.

    Mr Abbott says David Clarke “has been been a force for much needed tranquillity inside the party” and has been unfairly demonised as being part of the “religious right.”

    He fears that dumping Mr Clarke “could threaten [the party’s] election prospects especially in New South Wales”]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/02/08/2813333.htm?section=justin

22. [MySchool won’t make parents more involved. Involvement in this state has been through school councils, which have been in place for 35 years.]
    What percentage would you say “get involved” through school councils Chris? Have you ever been on a school council where they have had trouble getting members?

23. Turnbulls a sore loser just like Mark Latham.

    He should do himself and everyone else a favour and jump off a bridge. I’m sick of hearing his constant whining “waaaa, no one cares what I want… waaaa, i got tossed out as leader!”

24. “He fears that dumping Mr Clarke “could threaten [the party’s] election prospects especially in New South Wales”]”

    No the ALP in NSW are still gone. But turmoil in the Liberal Party will turn a landslide into a bare-majority or even minority Coalition govt. The Coalition not only have to win seats from Labor, but also claw back their heartland from a rogue’s gallery of Independents.

    But I love that quote about David Clarke being a “force for much needed tranquillity”. Clarke is the Palpatine to Tony Abbott’s Jar Jar Binks.

    (OK, I fess up — I sat through the dreadful “Revenge of the Sith” last Saturday night. But in my defense, I had a hangover and there was nothing else on.)

25. Psephos
    [The Greens, ALP and Mr X do not have a Senate majority. So what is the basis for a deal?]
    But the negotiations are taking place, and both parties seem serious about what they are trying to do. Or do you think it’s just a public relations exercise by both the government and the Greens?

    I certainly don’t think that. Surely there is hope in both parties of a compromise agreement along the lines of the Garnaut plan, and that Mr X can be convinced, plus one tiddly little moderate Turnbullish Lib Senator. Otherwise, what’s the point of the current negotiations?

26. At least Latham waited till he left Parliament before dumping on his party. Turnbull’s strategy is much more damaging. And fun. I’m starting to warm to Turnbull…

27. Have they had the vote for the ETS in the HORs yet?
    If so was Malcolm the only one crossing the floor and did anyone abstain?

28. Gary Bruce @ 105

    [I wrote: Contrast how the ETs has been sold compared to the GST.

    Just one flaw in that argument however. The GST cost Howard a huge number of seats and fortunately for him he had a huge number of seats to lose. Even on election night the Libs at some stage thought they were gorn. ]

    Perhaps so, but as I pointed out, the GST was deeply, deeply unpopular to begin with and it was simply a tax to raise revenue. OTOH, the ETS was very popular initially, its prospect helped win the 2007 election, and addresses a looming crisis.

    All it needed was more effort to explain it. Something that they still can’t get right, as QT has just demonstrated. Why, oh, why do ministers stonewall on Opposition questions such as: Will the Minister confirm that Joe Bloogs who earns $120K, has a stay at home wife with 2 dependent kids ages 6-12 will pay $912.11 more a year for electricity with the ETS?

    Instead of ducking and weaving wouldn’t it be better to tell it like it is: Yes, if the Bloggs family does nothing to reduce its electricity consumption the family will pay more. However, if the Joe and his wife take advantage of the Government’s free insulation scheme, installs a small solar PV system and converts to solar hot water purchased with the Government’s interest free loan plus takes some simple, low cost measures to cut standby power usage they will be several hundred dollars a year better off, and they’ll have helped keep the planet livable for their children and future grandchildren.

29. [Otherwise, what’s the point of the current negotiations?]

    Well, I really don’t know. I can’t believe that the Greens are going to climb down off their high horse and accept Labor’s bill. Nor do I believe that Labor is going to move so far to the left as to give the Greens what they want. It’s all a bit strange.

30. [He should do himself and everyone else a favour and jump off a bridge. I’m sick of hearing his constant whining “waaaa, no one cares what I want… waaaa, i got tossed out as leader!”]

    Not exactly a fair representation of his speech, TTH. As he said within the speech, his position now is the same as it’s been for years, and he said the same things he has said many times before.

31. Truthy doesn’t believe in standing on principle. I guess one has to have principles to begin with.

32. [Have they had the vote for the ETS in the HORs yet?]

    Not yet. I don’t know when it’s scheduled.

33. Thanks triton

34. [Not exactly a fair representation of his speech, TTH. As he said within the speech, his position now is the same as it’s been for years, and he said the same things he has said many times before.]

    But heres the thing: No one gives a toss what Turnbull thinks!

    He’s not leader.

    He’s not the PM.

    He’s not even supported by anyone in his party.

    He’s a silver spoon elitist who thinks his views matter more than everyone elses. But it doesn’t.

    He was as popular as poo on a shoe, and has been tossed into the bin of irrelevency. He needs to realise this and move on, instead of being a whiner, loser and wanker.

35. [Truthy doesn’t believe in standing on principle. I guess one has to have principles to begin with.]

    Sure, stand on principal.

    Just don’t assume people will listen to your bullshit. I’m certainly not.

    If he thinks he’s so damn important he should start his own party. He could call it the “look at me, i’m a really really important silver spoon latte sipping elitist and i’m much smarter than everyone else” Party.

36. Oh… and Latham could be his running mate! 😉

37. From the Marsupial:

    Pollytics

    Essential Report – MySchool and more Climate Change polling http://is.gd/7UVPU Two Party Preferred 55/45 with primaries 44/38 to ALP less than a minute ago from TweetDeck

38. Psephos, i can see where you are coming from on the likelyhood of a deal on the ETS.

    But, i tend somewhat to jv’s view on this.

    IF the Greens and ALP can work a deal that isnt TOO different from what has been on the table before, then its POSSIBLE that they may be able to get support from 1 or 2 Liberal Senators. If they can get X on board, whacko, then they only need 1 Lib.

    Or maybe Fielding will vote for it!! 🙂

    Wongs statements on Lateline last week indicate to me that the ALP/Greens may have some common ground that isn’t too different from what was previously proposed. That seems to revolve around a fixed carbon price for two years instead of 1, as in the “current” ETS bill. However, if there is to be a deal i think the Greens will have to move further than the ALP to get it done. at a purely personal level, whether or not they are capable of doing that will inform how i cast my vote in the Senate next election.

    Also, from the politics as blood sport point of view, I would love to see the wailing, gnashing of teeth, rending of garments, ashes and sack-cloth behavior that would occur amongst the forces of evil and darkness should something be passed in the parliament that would put a price on carbon pollution now (or at least in the same time frame as the 09 ETS bill), AND that could be seen as a lead in to a full blown ETS further down the track. Politically, i think that would be a major plus for both the ALP and the Greens going into this years election.

    I’m hopeful, but then again, back in 04 i was also hopeful that Latham would win and look where that one went.

39. Rick Sarre is a crack candidate for Sturt. Chris Pyne is facing another nervous election.

40. I can’t see the Greens and Labor coming anywhere near an agreement, unless the Greens had some sense drilled into their brains during the summer break and have moderated their fantasy-land demands.

41. Come on Truthy, you lot are a “broad church” who can brook dissent on any issue, unlike the undemocratic communists across the chamber.

42. imacca
    [put a price on carbon pollution now (or at least in the same time frame as the 09 ETS bill), AND that could be seen as a lead in to a full blown ETS further down the track. Politically, i think that would be a major plus for both the ALP and the Greens going into this years election.]

    Yes, I think it (meaning the new Garnaut path forward) would at one blow make up for the wallowing of the government since Copenhagen, while also leaving the Libs stuck in quicksand. They cannot move from the useless reduction level of 5% by 2020 with their wishin’ & hopin’ policy. It would simultaneously give Rudd the chance to get his horse back into the lead position in the wagon train.

    Continuing to argue about the best means to achieve 5% by 2020 with the Libs keeps the government down at the Libs level. They must go with Garnaut and rise above the fray – assuming the Greens will come down from 40% to the new Garnaut 2020 targe tof 18% ( the new 25%). What better lever to get X and a Lib or two onside – following the independent expert, Prof Garnaut?

43. imacca

    good luck with that

    The Greens are a protest party, they get support from people who thinks the ALP are now the Liberals and the Liberals are now one nation

    If they do a deal, they will lose all their constituence because they sold out and became the new Labor

    The Greens can only exist when they are selling out for 5%

    Pancho 241 – yeah agree 100, those communists, who in league with China stuffed up Copenhagen

44. Gary,

    I could not give you the percentage, except to say that it is a minority of parents and always has been.

    I have been on four school councils – in West Heidelberg, Rosanna East, Edenhope and Hampton Park – and none of them had trouble getting members.

45. jaundice view, that is what the conservatives are hoping

    Think a tax more regressive than the GST and at 20% and you have an ETS that would work

46. triton
    [unless the Greens had some sense drilled into their brains during the summer break and have moderated their fantasy-land demands.]
    I agree the Greens must come down from 40%, but everything I’ve heard from them before and after Copenhagen is that they are prepared to negotiate in the range of 25-40%. And remember 25% can now probably be discounted to around 18% due to the Copenhagen outcome. And Garnaut’s new plan is precisely at the meeting point between the two parties ranges. Plus the Greens already support the extended fixed price on carbon.

    The prospects for agreement should be quite good objectively speaking. I would love to be a mediator working on it. 😆

47. dovif

    Possum’s Essential report analysis shows support for the Greens ETS already at 17%. If the Greens and govt reach agreement at the Garnaut point I’d predict that support rising.

48. Jaundice view

    Q: Am I happy to save the environment -> 60% support

    Q: Am I happy to lose my car/flat screen tv, my computer – so I can post on poll bludger to save the environment -> <10% support

    Think about it this way, if you stop using the computer, you will decrease your carbon footprint ….. since you are still online …….

49. jv, I don’t think there’s any hope of Labor agreeing to 18%, maybe not even above 5%, in the current political climate. It would just give Abbott more ammunition in his “great big new tax” attack.

50. JV

    the other great selling point is

    Now that you have made the sacrifice …. welll um, um nothing is going to happen …. because those left wing communist bastards in China had just increased their CO2 production 300% …

    Maybe we can shut down our coal mines so they cannot purchase coal

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