The latest Nielsen poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, down from 56-44 in November. The Coalition is up four points on the primary vote to 41 per cent, with Labor steady on 42 per cent (no figure is provided for the Greens as far as I can see). The Prime Minister’s personal ratings have taken a hit, his approval rating down six to 60 per cent and disapproval up four to 33 per cent. The poll is the first since Tony Abbott became Liberal leader, and finds him with 44 per cent approval and 41 per cent disapproval. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 58-31, compared with 67-21 in the twilight of Turnbull’s leadership. The sample size was 1400. Elsewhere:
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Paul Nicolaou, the Liberal Party fundraiser who failed to retain John Brogden’s old seat of Pittwater at a 2006 by-election, will seek preselection for the state upper house. Also in the hunt for the three “at large” positions on the Liberal ticket (the remaining places are selected on a regional basis) are moderate incumbent Catherine Cusack; Peter Phelps, former chief-of-staff to defeated Eden-Monaro MP Gary Nairn (whose alleged political smarts once led him to compare Nairn’s Labor opponent, war hero Mike Kelly, to a Nazi concentration camp guard); Natasha MacLaren-Jones, Right faction state party vice-president and former staffer to Senator Helen Coonan; Dai Le, a former Radio National producer who ran in Cabramatta at the 2008 by-election held after the departure of Reba Meagher; Pat Daley, a former Salvation Army spokesman; and Frank Oliveri, a Fairfield councillor said to be backed by David Clarke. They might yet be joined by Clarke himself if he proves unable to retain his existing position as the candidate representing north-western Sydney. Clarke hopes to retain that position through a deal in which he will back Cusack in exchange for support from moderates. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Clarke’s foes in the Alex Hawke camp claim he could secure as few as 30 of the available 90 votes, with many moderates allegedly refusing to fall in as directed behind Clarke. As well as the Hawke-backed David Elliott, the position will be contested by “Robyn Preston, a Hills councillor, Tony Issa, a Parramatta councillor, and Nick Tyrrell, a Blacktown councillor”.
• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Robyn Parker, Liberal state upper house member and factional moderate, will contest preselection for the Labor-held lower house seat of Maitland after recognising she will be unable to retain her existing position. While it was reported last year that the way had been smoothed for her to win the Maitland nomination through the amendment of the preselection timetable, Ian Kirkwood of the Newcastle Herald reports she faces rival contenders in Maitland councillors Bob Geoghegan and Stephen Mudd and Newcastle councillor Brad Luke. The issue will be decided by 30 local branch members and eight head office representatives on Saturday, February 21.
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports three candidates have confirmed they will put their names forward for Labor preselection in Macarthur: Nick Bleasdale, the candidate in 2007, Paul Nunnari, former wheelchair athlete and adviser to state MP Graham West, and Greg Warren, the deputy mayor of Camden. Hughes is said by Coorey to be claimed by the Right, factional home to candidates Greg Holland and Brent Thomas, but the Left might yet seek to upset the Right’s applecart by putting forward Liverpool mayor Wendy Waller. Both have been made winnable by redistribution and the impending departure of their Liberal members, Danna Vale and Pat Farmer.
He can talk all day as far as we are concerned 🙂
Turnbull:
[We should not forget when the Howard government agreed to an ETS in 2007, the world was further from action than they are today.]
[…this is the only policy on offer that can cut our emissions by 5% by 2020]
According to Sam Maiden, Joe Hockey is in the chamber to provide Turnbull with support.
Turnbull:
[Liberals reject the idea that governments know best.]
[ I heard Milne carrying on about how Abbott had joined Rudd by not making the polluters pay and welching on CC. It was truly appalling.
You’ve said much the same yourself many times.]
No, I actually supported the ETS passing, dismal as it was, as it was better than the alternative. And there is a big difference between Rudd and Abbott on CC.
[And there is a big difference between Rudd and Abbott on CC.]
The former believes it is happening, the latter doesn’t.
I didn’t see Hockey. I only saw Georgiou and Broadbent, and later Nola Marino.
I’m wondering why Dio you are blaming Rudd for the Liberal’s change of leadership and direction.
Apparently he walked in late:
http://twitter.com/samanthamaiden
So now whatever Abbott says today is irrelevant, because the main political news story will be Turnbull crossing the floor.
If Julia Gillard is not careful, that Member for Higgins, making her Maiden Speech (?), could be the first female PM for Australia.
I doubt it, she sounds too angry.
Confessions #150
“Surely an indication of how far the Liberal party has moved away from its principles under Abbott’s leadership.”
I’d be interested to see you define (or even find) the Libs principles…..aren’t they deLIBERALly vague?
LOL! O’Dwyer prefaces her comments by saying she risks over simplification, and then proceeds to completely over simplify the last year of Australia’s economic history.
Oh, now she is asking for WorkChoices to be brought back.
Must admit I envy the Liberals a bit. Having such a talented speaker as Turnbull is a great asset. More fool them for relegating him to the back bench.
[Having such a talented speaker as Turnbull is a great asset.]
Yeah Rudd should study that speech closely, it was a good explanation of why the CPRS is better policy.
Joe was leaning forward with his chin on his forearms when malcolm was talking
Joe probably is wishing he had the guts to cross the floor with Talcs
So O’Dwyer wants a referendum for Canberra to take over water policy from the states, but she’s opposed to centralising power in Canberra. Um…
[Joe probably is wishing he had the guts to cross the floor with Talcs]
He should at least abstain.
[So O’Dwyer wants a referendum for Canberra to take over water policy from the states, but she’s opposed to centralising power in Canberra. Um…]
And she says that people and businesses are better at determining how best to spend money, yet she is going to vote for Abbott’s climate change non-policy that is based on the failed 1970s approach to industry policy, i.e. letting government bureaucrats pick winners.
[I’d be interested to see you define (or even find) the Libs principles]
From the Liberals’ website:
[We believe that, wherever possible, government should not compete with an efficient private sector; and that businesses and individuals – not government – are the true creators of wealth and employment. ]
Just like Turnbull said in relation to the CPRS, and the precise opposite of what the current Liberal leadership is offering in tackling climate change.
So O’Dwyer wants a referendum for Canberra to take over water policy from the states, but she’s opposed to centralising power in Canberra. Um…
Consistent strategy of the Right. Profess to believe in small government, but create legislation that is the exact opposite of that end while in government.
[We believe that, wherever possible, government should not compete with an efficient private sector; and that businesses and individuals – not government – are the true creators of wealth and employment.]
I have no idea what part of this the modern ALP disagrees with.
ShowsOn@174
[I have no idea what part of this the modern ALP disagrees with.]
The “We believe” part. For this statement from the Liberals to be true it should read:
[We do not believe that…]
NEW ORLEANS! NEW ORLEANS!
[So O’Dwyer wants a referendum for Canberra to take over water policy from the states, but she’s opposed to centralising power in Canberra. Um…]
When you have a major river running through multiple states, and each state is selfish, it makes sense to move water policy to Canberra. She expressed it as exception. It wasn’t a contradiction.
It’s a very good sign for the government to be in front at this point in time…
[…No incumbent government has enjoyed such a strong lead in two-party preferred terms in the polls at the same point in the electoral cycle in the last two decades.
Nine months before the 1996 and 2007 elections, the incumbent government of the day was well behind in two party preferred terms and went on to lose on election day.
By contrast, at the equivalent points before the 1987, 1990 and 1993 elections, the incumbent government was also well behind in two-party preferred terms. Yet in all three cases, the incumbents went on to run down and overtake the Opposition to win on election day.]
Mark Davis, Sydney Morning Herald, 08 February 2010
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/alp-the-favourite-as-rudd-and-abbott-enter-the-home-straight-20100208-nlu4.html
Dio – when you’re not too busy could you repost the diet the cancer patient followed after his op please.
I think it started with red grapes for 3 weeks, grapeseed oil, etc. Sorry I didn’t take better notice but rellie is prepared to try it.
Think I need something strong after watching the Senates Estimates this am.
Unfortunately miss Malcolm but caught O’Dwyer. The woman is full of contradictions but reminds me of Bronnie. No – not PM material, but probably will be a very effective Lib poliie.
[When you have a major river running through multiple states, and each state is selfish, it makes sense to move water policy to Canberra.]
OK, so let’s say the Fed government holds a referendum, and like 38 / 44 other referendums, it fails.
What would the Liberal policy be then?
Thomas Paine
According to the AFL-NFL Superbowl indicator, New Orleans winning should be a positive for the US stock market for 2010 🙂
Compare Abbott in 2010 with Latham at the same stage in 2004. Showed early promise, had Howard rattled but fell badly at the last hurdle. And Latham didn’t have a Joyce to carry as lead in the saddle.
I would want to see a lot more polls showing continuing support for Abbott and the Libs before I believe there is any prospect of the govt being under any threat. Still Rudd may be willing to talk turkey with the Greens on another plan. Even if this doesn’t get through the Senate, Rudd can show how he is willing to be flexible in the face of changed circumstances. Better to go to an election with a climate change plan in place than some pie in the sky option.
I think Troeth could support this option. She is retiring as everyone knows so has nothing to lose. If there is no DD she remains a Senator until June 2011, but if there is a DD this year that is the end for her. How keen is she to stay on for her full term?
[According to the AFL-NFL Superbowl indicator]
The what?
[By contrast, at the equivalent points before the 1987, 1990 and 1993 elections, the incumbent government was also well behind in two-party preferred terms. Yet in all three cases, the incumbents went on to run down and overtake the Opposition to win on election day.]
Nice to see some sanity out there for a change. The headless chooks outnumber them unfortunately.
BH@179
[The woman is full of contradictions but reminds me of Bronnie.]
That’s strange. When she first surfaced I also got the same impression: enough to start a snarky post about “neo-bronnie”. However when you compare photos they don’t look particularly similar.
[What would the Liberal policy be then?]
Same policy as they will always have, including the Member for Higgins – SerfChoices. OK, so it’s not a water policy, but it is a core policy…
Superbowl indicator is a curiosum of US equity market:
[An indicator based on the belief that a Super Bowl win for a team from the old AFL (AFC division) foretells a decline in the stock market for the coming year, and that a win for a team from the old NFL (NFC division) means the stock market will be up for the year.]
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/superbowlindicator.asp
[OK, so let’s say the Fed government holds a referendum, and like 38 / 44 other referendums, it fails.
What would the Liberal policy be then?]
How would I know? Ask O’Dwyer.
Rossco 182
[Still Rudd may be willing to talk turkey with the Greens on another plan]
In any event, post whatever form of Senate election, wouldnt the most likely outcome be for a majority be ALP-Green. So would make sense to start work on that possibility?
I noticed that Kelvin Thompson quoted Bob Dylan in his speech and Dr Jensen quoted Britney Spears.
[the old AFL (AFC division) foretells a decline in the stock market for the coming year, and that a win for a team from the old NFL (NFC division)]
Ah, that’s what threw me. Thought you were referring to some sort of aussie rules and NFL thing.
[In any event, post whatever form of Senate election, wouldnt the most likely outcome be for a majority be ALP-Green. So would make sense to start work on that possibility?]
There’s always a DD
Rossco
[Still Rudd may be willing to talk turkey with the Greens on another plan.]
It seems they are talking turkey this time as opposed to the last vote in November, when the government was all ‘ducks and drakes’.
The government desperately needs to move beyond 5% – where they are being hammered – into territory into which the opposition cannot go with its ‘recycle your potato peels’ policy. The best outcome now would be to get an agreement with the Greens and Mr X on the Garnaut plan ($20 ton moving to a level in a few years reflecting world progress – probably now around 18% by 2020). The aim then would be to get the remaining support from a Lib in the Senate, or two if X doesn’t come across – although I can’t see why he wouldn’t suppport Garnaut in the end.
Surely this is the best outcome. What could be better, after all in the circumstances? It is still in line with the global target of 450 ppm carbon by 2050.
Turnbull was just delivered the government’s election campaign for the ETS.
And did a nice, professional job on it too. It sure made a refreshing change from that bloviating Barnaby’s bulldust.
[The aim then would be to get the remaining support from a Lib in the Senate]
Pie in the sky
[I noticed that Kelvin Thompson quoted Bob Dylan in his speech and Dr Jensen quoted Britney Spears.]
Yep – wisdom against frivolity. Says it all about Jensen.
Dario
Are writing off any chance of Troeth crossing over? If so, why?
Dario
Why would you fail to make the attempt? That is, if your objective is to get a strong scheme up and running? The Garnuat plan is in line with the science and the economics. It doesn’t require a 2020 target just yet. It has a price on carbon straight away. Eveerything about it is right. To miss a chance to put it to the test would be sheer negligence. Anyway, why else is the government now negotiating with the Greens? If Turnbull were to cross the floor on the Garnaut plan, should it emege from the talks, might not a Lib or two in the Senate?
Bronnie: “Poor woman’s Wilson Tuckey” – Tanner – Gold
i think they all hate turnbull- the libs that is