Morgan: 56.5-43.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll shows Labor’s two-party lead at 56.5-43.5, down from the surprisingly strong 58.5-41.5 recorded a fortnight ago. Labor is down 1.5 per cent on the primary vote to 46 per cent and the Coalition are up 2.5 per cent to 38 per cent, with the Greens down 1.5 per cent to 8.5 per cent. Other news:

• Belinda Neal faces a preselection challenge in Robertson from Deborah O’Neill, education teacher at the University of Newcastle and narrowly unsuccessful state candidate for Gosford in 2003. According to Peter van Onselen of The Australian, O’Neill’s challenge has “the tacit approval of NSW Labor Right powerbrokers”, with Labor sources backing recent reports that party polling shows Neal headed for defeat. John Della Bosca, however, is feared to be ready to “pull out all stops to save his wife”. Members of Labor’s Ourimbah have passed a motion calling on Belinda Neal to bow out, but according to Neal, the branch consists of “approximately six members”. Interestingly, the Prime Minister has been making positive noises about Neal recently. The Daily Telegraph reports police officer Darren Jameson has as expected been preselected as Liberal candidate, despite earlier suggestions former member Jim Lloyd would seek to make a comeback.

• Labor’s member for the north Queensland seat of Dawson, James Bidgood, has announced he will bow out at the next election for health reasons. Bidgood gained the seat from Nationals member De-Anne Kelly in 2007 after picking up a 13.2 per cent swing, and has been chiefly noted since for offering the media pictures he had taken of a protester setting fire to himself in front of Parliament House, and saying the global financial crisis was a result of God “bringing judgement”. Labor’s margin after the election was 3.2 per cent, which the redistribution has reduced to 2.4 per cent.

• David Elliott, chief executive of the Civil Contractors Federation and one-time press secretary to Opposition Leader Peter Collins, has launched a preselection challenge against state upper house member and Right faction powerbroker David Clarke. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Elliott previously had his eyes on the lower house seat of Riverstone. He unsuccessfully contested preselection for the federal seat of Mitchell against Clarke’s arch-rival of the Right, Alex Hawke. Clarke has the backing of Barry O’Farrell, and according to Salusinszky may find unlikely support from the Left. Nonetheless, Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reckons Clarke to be “at serious risk of losing” due to backing for Elliott from Nick Campbell, state party president and an ally of Hawke.

• The Nationals have preselected David Gillespie to run against independent Rob Oakeshott in Lyne.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the timetable for the federal redistribution of Victoria, which Antony Green explains will definitely not be in effect before the next election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,180 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  1. [now you dont want me to make a complete dikhead out of you , by quoting Dems deficts & debbt increasing since 2006 do ya]
    You are too stupid to realise it, but you are using exactly the same argument that the Liberals are using against the Labor government’s spending here.

    Of COURSE the debt has increased under Obama, because 1) the $700 billion TARP fund was passed right at the end of the Bush presidency 2) The FIRST thing the Obama administration did was put through an $800 billion stimulus bill.

    Are you somehow saying that the U.S. economy didn’t NEED a stimulus bill? If that is the case, how the hell can you support the Rudd government passing a stimulus bill here?

    You also seem to be excusing the Bush administration for not even counting the Iraq and Afghanistan wars as part of the U.S. budget!

    Obama summed this up last week:
    [[W]e came in already with a $1.3 trillion deficit before I had passed any law. What is true is we came in with $8 trillion worth of debt over the next decade — had nothing to do with anything that we had done. It had to do with the fact that in 2000 when there was a budget surplus of $200 billion, you had a Republican administration and a Republican Congress, and we had two tax cuts that weren’t paid for.

    You had a prescription drug plan — the biggest entitlement plan, by the way, in several decades — that was passed without it being paid for. You had two wars that were done through supplementals. And then you had $3 trillion projected because of the lost revenue of this recession. That’s $8 trillion.

    Now, we increased it by a trillion dollars because of the spending that we had to make on the stimulus. I am happy to have any independent fact-checker out there take a look at your presentation versus mine in terms of the accuracy of what I just said.]
    http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-gop-house-issues-conference

  2. “That left a bunch of us REFUGEES without a home, so we jumped onto on a cyber boat ”

    Aristotle , Troothy will be complaining about youse coming by boat now

  3. Show off

    you hav arrogance to quote me , which clearly says Dems from 2006 ,

    then you hav gall to try and switch subject to Obama from 2009
    whose explanaton is dodgy anyway seeing Dems hav had Congress SINCE 2006

    THEY Dems since 2006 passed th Bills FACT , a fact you seem unkowing about with how USA sytem works

    Then of couse you dikhead , you still ignored because you ar scared to , re my factual openin statement that forcast for next TEN years is almost trillions a year , which IS th elephant in room per people who understand econamic

    Those forcasts ar not based on your drivel , its based on US budget office , nong

  4. [THEY Dems since 2006 passed th Bills FACT , a fact you seem unkowing about with how USA sytem works]
    LOL! I note that apart from silly name calling, you can’t name a SINGLE bill.

    As usual, you’re wrong and you know it.

  6. Briefly@133:

    [The AUD is a proxy for the export-oriented growth economies of East Asia and for commodity prices. It is a high-yield/high-risk bet. So when the markets get anxious, the AUD gets belted.]

    Thanks very much Briefly. Economics is a dark science to me.

    That post, and others like it, are one of the many reasons I come here – there are so many people here with arcane skills and knowledge which they just toss off, and mention in passing, as though everybody knows that, but on subjects that to me are like ancient greek, yet are important and illuminating.

  10. [The Jakarta governor’s office confirmed that the two-metre bronze would be removed from Menteng Park and placed at the nearby Menteng One primary school where Obama spent part of his childhood in the late 1960s.]

    Not quite removing?

  11. [Not quite removing?]

    Plus will Obama be visiting his old school when he goes to Indonesia? Indonesia works in strange ways.

  12. Can’t say i blame the Indonesians wanting a statue of a countryman instead of a foreigner.
    I wouldn’t want a statue of USA president in my local park 😛
    (especially if it was Bush! )

  13. Hi Vera

    “I wouldn’t want a statue of USA president in my local park 😛
    (especially if it was Bush! )”

    and i dont like all those photos of th Queens in Parliament & everywhere either ,
    she is a UK foregner

  17. Briefly,

    While we’re on economics, what is the difference between monetary (RBA) and fiscal (govt)?

    Perhaps I should ask Barnaby Rubble.

  18. B. Obama may have lost some shine, but he’d still be very welcome at mine for dinner anytime. I think he is great, even if the reactionaries of American politics have done their best to tear him down. Of course, Mrs Briefly will insist that Michelle O also comes. She is a huge fan.

  19. [While we’re on economics, what is the difference between monetary (RBA) and fiscal (govt)?

    Perhaps I should ask Barnaby Rubble.]
    Well, at the press club this week Senator Rubble said that the government shouldn’t of passed a stimulus, and should’ve just let the RBA cut interest rates to 1%, i.e. rely on a purely monetary stimulus instead of a fiscal stimulus.

    The problem is, this would’ve been much slower, and if the economic conditions are bad, it doesn’t matter how low interest rates are, consumers just won’t spend which means businesses stop investing.

  20. monetary policy is interest rates

    fiscal policy is government spending (or not spending) etc. The stimulus re GFC and first home owners grants are classic examples of the use of fiscal policy.

  23. The easiest way to determine if a person doesn’t know anything about economics is if they think it is always bad for a government to be in debt.

  25. vp…lol. The Barnaby is the oracle. He knows about stuff. He’s the one, so he says. And he can talk openly with Tony Abbott without jumping him. Amazing self control.

    But seriously….you are right. Monetary policy is the preserve of the RBA, who, among other things set official interest rates. Once upon a time, the RBA could more or less determine market rates too – the rates paid for deposits and for lending in the financial system as a whole. These days, in a deregulated financial market, with free capital flows into and out of the Australian economy, domestic liquidity and interest rates are also highly influenced by international market pressures too.

    By contrast, fiscal policy describes the taxing and spending position of the Government.

  26. ShowsOn@173
    [The easiest way to determine if a person doesn’t know anything about economics is if they think it is always bad for a government to be in debt.]
    Well I’m worried about government debt.
    What is the carbon footprint of all those debt trucks?

  29. Dow futures down 57 so far tonight.

    Still a long way out from the open but not a good sign given last nights drop. After such a drop its not unusual to get (anticipate) a bit of a bounce.

  30. [Dow futures down 57 so far tonight. ]

    So wot, its Keno.

    Can we please return to a world where people make money from making stuff people want to buy?

  31. My answer to both questions is YES 🙂

    2nd question – thats exactly what the chinese are doing. Very ably assisted by companies who do not want to pay decent wages to people to make the stuff (mostly junk anyway) and consumers who do not want to pay a *reasonable* price for the *junk*.

  32. [The Jakarta governor’s office confirmed that the twoV-metre bronze would be removed from Menteng Park and placed at the nearby Menteng One primary school where Obama spent part of his childhood in the late 1960s.]

    Vera, Obi needs a middleman. i am available 👿

  33. The best known/most feared backbencher…..it is a toss up between Wilson Tuckey and Belinda Neal. Personally, despite any failings she may have, I would rather have Belinda than Wilson on my side. He is the original wackaloon.

  34. [2nd question – thats exactly what the chinese are doing. Very ably assisted by companies who do not want to pay decent wages to people to make the stuff (mostly junk anyway) and consumers who do not want to pay a *reasonable* price for the *junk*.]

    Is that a question?

    China makes stuff that people want to buy, it will be interesting to see how Toyota, GM and Ford react when we are driving Cherries and Great Walls.

  35. [The best known/most feared backbencher…..it is a toss up between Wilson Tuckey and Belinda Neal.]

    The most feared backbencher is of course Malcolm Turnbull. The Libs fear that he is plotting a terrible revenge on those who ratted him out, and I’m sure they’re right.

  36. [The most feared backbencher is of course Malcolm Turnbull. The Libs fear that he is plotting a terrible revenge on those who ratted him out, and I’m sure they’re right.]

    I am sure he has a few mates just waiting for the appropriate moment to slip something into the public domain. 😉

  38. o as the childern return home after the first week at school the mums and dads ask whay did you learn

    Barny – Dad i learn something about 1.4million = 3.2 Billion.

    Farther – geez son before long you’ll be an Accountant or shoudl that be an American Banker.

  42. Chinese household incomes are rising, especially when considered in real (price-adjusted) terms. As well, there is no income tax in China, so household disposable incomes are much higher than hourly labour rates might suggest. Personal thrift is also regarded as a cardinal necessity, so savings rates are very high. As a result, private domestic consumption comprises less than 40% of the Chinese economy and fixed investment is very large compared to mature consumer economies. This provides the means for the Chinese Government to control growth rates: they can and do use their control of the banking system to marshal capital resources and direct lending and investment. This is what Mao would have certainly called capitalism with Chinese characteristics – a command economy with consumerist tendencies and a mercantile approach to external trade, foreign investment and asset accumulation. The big question is, how long will it last?

  44. psephos @ 185…..lol……the Turnbull is certainly well known, but feared? I suppose that depends on how the Libs go in the year ahead. Is he known for vengeance?

  45. Psephos, I am reminded of a well-known Labor edict: in Victory, Revenge; in Defeat, Malice.

    Maybe Turnbull has a Labor streak in him after all…lol

  49. [The Libs fear that he is plotting a terrible revenge on those who ratted him out, and I’m sure they’re right.]
    And it starts sometime next week when Turnbull makes his speech to the CPRS bills.

  50. Speaking of Sunny Coast pollies, I owe Alex Somlyay an apology – I asserted his new office was not in his electorate, it is. According to whereis it is 30 metres into Fairfax.

    Mr Somlyay’s office have explained to me that the move was so his office could be in the centre of his electorate. 😉

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