The latest Morgan face-to-face poll shows Labor’s two-party lead at 56.5-43.5, down from the surprisingly strong 58.5-41.5 recorded a fortnight ago. Labor is down 1.5 per cent on the primary vote to 46 per cent and the Coalition are up 2.5 per cent to 38 per cent, with the Greens down 1.5 per cent to 8.5 per cent. Other news:
• Belinda Neal faces a preselection challenge in Robertson from Deborah O’Neill, education teacher at the University of Newcastle and narrowly unsuccessful state candidate for Gosford in 2003. According to Peter van Onselen of The Australian, O’Neill’s challenge has “the tacit approval of NSW Labor Right powerbrokers”, with Labor sources backing recent reports that party polling shows Neal headed for defeat. John Della Bosca, however, is feared to be ready to “pull out all stops to save his wife”. Members of Labor’s Ourimbah have passed a motion calling on Belinda Neal to bow out, but according to Neal, the branch consists of “approximately six members”. Interestingly, the Prime Minister has been making positive noises about Neal recently. The Daily Telegraph reports police officer Darren Jameson has as expected been preselected as Liberal candidate, despite earlier suggestions former member Jim Lloyd would seek to make a comeback.
• Labor’s member for the north Queensland seat of Dawson, James Bidgood, has announced he will bow out at the next election for health reasons. Bidgood gained the seat from Nationals member De-Anne Kelly in 2007 after picking up a 13.2 per cent swing, and has been chiefly noted since for offering the media pictures he had taken of a protester setting fire to himself in front of Parliament House, and saying the global financial crisis was a result of God “bringing judgement”. Labor’s margin after the election was 3.2 per cent, which the redistribution has reduced to 2.4 per cent.
• David Elliott, chief executive of the Civil Contractors Federation and one-time press secretary to Opposition Leader Peter Collins, has launched a preselection challenge against state upper house member and Right faction powerbroker David Clarke. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Elliott previously had his eyes on the lower house seat of Riverstone. He unsuccessfully contested preselection for the federal seat of Mitchell against Clarke’s arch-rival of the Right, Alex Hawke. Clarke has the backing of Barry O’Farrell, and according to Salusinszky may find unlikely support from the Left. Nonetheless, Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reckons Clarke to be “at serious risk of losing” due to backing for Elliott from Nick Campbell, state party president and an ally of Hawke.
• The Nationals have preselected David Gillespie to run against independent Rob Oakeshott in Lyne.
• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the timetable for the federal redistribution of Victoria, which Antony Green explains will definitely not be in effect before the next election.
I had someone telling me that the second wave of the GFC might be just around the corner.
He said that Iceland and Portugal were likely to default on their debts, Greece may well and Spain is looking dodgy.
He reckons they might fall like dominos and be hard to stop.
Has anyone else heard this?
Shows
the case decision was over 200 pgs long
🙁
I think the original non attribution and addition of the flute riff as an addendum to the song was critical to the final decision.
[The kookaburra riff has been well known for yonks]
The kookaburra riff is being referred to as a folk song. I wasn’t aware that there was copyright on traditional songs.
So, does anyone know when the, or an, ETS bill is due to go back into the HOR??
If there is anything scheduled then that would set a time limit on ALP/Greens negotiations.
Hey, if the ALP and Greens agree, maybe that would bring Mr X along. then they only need one other. Ok, Greens, X and Fielding probably want a DD as it would give them a better chance in an election, but surely we are then back into a situation where the Libs REALLY REALLY don’t want to face a DD??
Might their machine then give a casual wink and nod to one or two senators who wont be standing at the next election anyway to help pass it, so avoiding a DD? They could have lots of meaningless bluff, bluster and theater in the meantime of course to keep their credibility (Hah!!) with their base, but still avoid a DD in second half of the year.
Unless the Govt then gets its trigger on the medicar rebate changes.
[I had someone telling me that the second wave of the GFC might be just around the corner.]
Diogenes:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/business/05markets.html?hp
Dio
[I had someone telling me that the second wave of the GFC might be just around the corner.]
I reckon Joe is fighting his second wave of KFC
😉
[TTH, the conclusion to be drawn is that bob1234 was in the wrong and ShowsOn is in the right.]
Or alternative conclusion:
Bobs a Greens voter, and ShowsOn’s a Labor voter and therefore gets off scott free
The ETS was reintroduced in the Reps this week.
The ironic thing about the Land Down Under song is that the owner of the Kookaburra song only sued after a 2007 episode of Spics N Specks comparing the two tunes.
How stupid is the owner of the Kookaburra song?
Scarpat@103
[The kookaburra riff has been well known for yonks
The kookaburra riff is being referred to as a folk song. I wasn’t aware that there was copyright on traditional songs.]
Actually Kookaburra itself was based on an old 17th Centuary Folk Song A Ei Di’r ‘Deryn Du
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kookaburra_%28song%29
[Bob gets banned for saying the word “hack” but ShowsOn is constantly referring to me as an idiot and goes unpunished.]
Did ShowsOn call you an idiot seven times in the space of 180 words, after having done so hundreds or more likely thousand of times in the past? I don’t think so. Also, as a general rule, don’t come whingeing to me about my failure to protect you. It’s a pathetic way for a grown adult to behave.
Be the Chinese version of interesting times if things go pear shaped economically again. It’ll be a bugger for my super as i have that half in cash and half in ‘growth” options. To change we have to put the instruction in by the 17th of the month, and it gets actioned on the 1st of the following month. So, i have a week to decide about running for cover. Still, i’m not looking at taking it out for 15 years and have 19% contributions going in, so its no immediate tragedy for me. May just leave it alone and ride it out. It’ll be a reall bugger for people out of work though.
Politically, a dip into another GFC will i think bury the Libs, if nothing else does first. Govt will be able to adopt a steady as she goes line since there is still considerable stimulus in the pipeline, debt at only 15 – 16% of GDP and a few months of better than expected economic growth in the bank. Unemployment still at 5.??% after having expected and budgeted for more.
It will put some of the Lib ranting in 2009 about withdrawing the latter part of the stimulus package right at the forefront of people minds, just before an election. BBQ conversations would most likely include:
“things are bad, but how screwed would we be if that other lot, with Barnyard running finance were in charge!!”
[Did ShowsOn call you an idiot seven times in the space of 180 words, after having done so hundreds or more likely thousand of times in the past?]
Interesting you ask that.
I’ll check. I’ll give you the total amount of idiots in his 180 words in the last thread.
[Also, as a general rule, don’t come whingeing to me about my failure to protect you. It’s a pathetic way for a grown adult to behave.]
So soiled nappies are out?
111
Hear Hear!!!
[It will put some of the Lib ranting in 2009 about withdrawing the latter part of the stimulus package right at the forefront of people minds…]
Sloppy Joe was saying today that the stimulus should be cut back. he is such a dork.
113
Every one of those ‘idiots’ labels will be well deserved in you case.
Scarpat
Thanks for that. I’m surprised there isn’t more commentary on it.
[Fearful investors have started asking whether France, Germany and other rich countries should be forced to bail out their poorer cousins, or simply allow them to default — an outcome that would have major repercussions for Europe and financial markets worldwide.]
Are France and Germany in a position to bail out Portugal, Greece etc?
I hope you weren’t the person who said they bought Spanish bonds to fund their solar plants.
[Are France and Germany in a position to bail out Portugal, Greece etc?]
Yep, the EU will not let them fail. Makes their debt of 100%+ of GDP look sad, er Sloppy ours is 15%.
[The Idiot’s idiocy smashes the market for idiocy.
Luckily The Idiot moved most of his idiocy + idioticness into being a bigger idiot a week ago.
They could give Fletcher communications, and move Tony SMith to Finance.
Well, most businesses want an ETS. So the Liberals are doing a spectacularly good job of opposing what their business base wants.
I NEVER called you an idiot! I called you The Idiot.
1) How many Australians a year die of starvation?
2) If you weren’t an idiot, you’d realise that “God” “Allah” and “Jehovah” are the SAME entity.
The Idiot’s motto is you can’t help people who can’t be helped by The Idiot.
Why didn’t this post go into moderation?
The Idiot refuses to flee from the shit hole that The Idiot lives in.
Pauline Hanson is probably the Pauline Hanson of climate change. I doubt she believes in it. The interesting thing is that Sarah Palin pretended to believe in climate change during the last U.S. election, but now she is moving away from that view.
Test:
ì
This should be the recognised sign for Truthy (The Idiot):
ì
You get it by typing “& i g r a v e ;” (without the spaces)
You’re asking too much if you think The Idiot II can avoid acting like an idiot.
He has always been The Idiot as long as he has been posting here.
Abbott said yesterday that he agrees with the government’s plan to increase it to 0.5% of GDP by 2016/2017.]
Total Words: 245
Total Idiots, Idiocracy and Idiotics: 18
I think ShowsOn wins.
imacca@112:
[It’ll be a reall bugger for people out of work though.]
And people who have retired and have their funds in the default, usually shares, option. Most don’t change their mix no matter what happens, they wake up one morning and find their super has lost much of its value.
What happens is that you are taking out units which have lost value, so you have to take out more of them.
The only sensible option for people in that position is cash. It makes very little, but at least it doesn’t go backwards.
[It’s a pathetic way for a grown adult to behave.]
I don’t need protection, i’ll just have another beer.
Psephos
Posted Friday, February 5, 2010 at 6:54 pm | Permalink
“The ETS was reintroduced in the Reps this week.”
by Combet , and what a star he will be , Libs already scared of him
ShowsOn
Posted Friday, February 5, 2010 at 6:29 pm | Permalink
The current Senate is not going to pass a climate bill of any kind, unless the Greens back down and vote for the current bill, which they won’t.
“They should put the compensation bill to the Senate individually, and dare the Liberals to block it.”
what a dumb politcal idea that is
ru
[Yep, the EU will not let them fail.]
That has to set a bad precedent. I suppose that explains why the Euro is tanking.
[93…..TheTruthHurts
Okay this is ridiculous.
Bob gets banned for saying the word “hack” but ShowsOn is constantly referring to me as an idiot and goes unpunished.]
Reading your postings is punishment enough, TTH.
Does anyone have Stephen Long’s address I would like to send him some razor blades. Why does he talk to financial wallies who have a proven track record of knowing crap about what is going on.
Diogenes @ 101 wrote:
[He said that Iceland and Portugal were likely to default on their debts, Greece may well and Spain is looking dodgy. ]
I keep hearing Spain mentioned but can’t figure out why. Yes, like much of the Eurozone they are doing it tough at the moment. However, their debt amounts to around 44% of GDP. Compare that to just under 120% for Greece and Iceland, and nearly 200% for Japan. Last I heard the U.S. was about 70%. Ours is 15% of GDP. Peanuts, except if you’re a Lib/Nat scaremonger.
Spain’s problems haven’t stopped them from spending up big on solar, including solar baseload installations. They, unlike us, see what is coming and are prepared to actually do something about it even in hard times. And building a profitable industry in the process.
Okay, possibly my bad on that narrow front, assuming you’re not cherry-picking. If he keeps it up as relentlessly as Bob did over as long a period of time, it’s possible I’ll tell him to stop.
Spain had the mother of all housing assett bubbles.
There are about 2 million unsold units on the market and no buyers. Lot’s of other dwellings were purchased on the never never and the inhabitants of same are no dwelling in the nether regions of negative equity.
Spain’s real unemployment rate is likely to be about 20%.
Spain’s investment in renewables was mainly before the GFC and, if anything, if probably adding to its short-term problems because of the per unit cost of renewables.
While the financial problems of countries like Greece, Iceland and Spain are transparent the really hairy stuff that could trigger a string of sovereign defaults lies in the former east bloc countries. Western European banks are in that up the hilt and that could really get the rot going.
The euro as a currency is therefore, at the least, under a cloud.
The sovereign debt markets have the wobbles, causing a flight to quality and away from risk assets of all classes. Luckily, the economies affected – Greece, Portugal, Iceland and Spain – are not large. Nevertheless, the prospect of default by these States is putting the whole European financial and fiscal architecture under scrutiny, leading to a loss of confidence in the Euro itself and to anxiety in debt markets generally.
It is far too soon to be forecasting a new recession simply because of this turmoil, but it does demonstrate why coordinated stimulus remains a relevant policy.
[The sovereign debt markets have the wobbles, causing a flight to quality ]
Um, shouldn’t that mean our dollar will be increasing, not losing 3 US cents in a day?
morewest
[Last I heard the U.S. was about 70%. Ours is 15% of GDP. Peanuts, except if you’re a Lib/Nat scaremonger.]
Rudd just needs to put that graph up. The crap from the Libs about debt dies in one graph.
The US debt was projected to reach 100% within three years last year. I don’t know what the story is now.
The AUD is a proxy for the export-oriented growth economies of East Asia and for commodity prices. It is a high-yield/high-risk bet. So when the markets get anxious, the AUD gets belted.
[Rudd just needs to put that graph up. The crap from the Libs about debt dies in one graph.]
At least most Liberals only pretend to care about debt. Barnaby Joyce doesn’t seem to be pretending, he turns red in the face just thinking about it.
ICAC has cleared everyone over the McGurk claims, saying there was no cogent evidence to support them.
Put that in your pipe and smoke it Diog.
Another Fairfax Beat Up – with zero evidence.
“But countries on the fringe, including Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland, are having trouble paying for years of debt-driven expansion. Now the bill is coming due”
elephants in room is USA , Dems hav had Congess since 2007 and spent like there is no tomorrow
theory is you go into debt in a recesion , and reduce it a la oz will do when recovery takes off
Yet USA , even when they ar forcasst as being in recovery in future STILL will be increasing there debt at about a trillion a year for th NEXT 10 years
and some of those est s ar rubbery on revenues
NO one in US has will to rein in , sensible
IMHO, the market has been irrationally exuberant and a touch of reality is seeping in. The huge waves of capital raising by just about all large companies devalued existing shareholders. The market anticipated profits. The reality is not quite there. At the same time, the Chinese Government has been saying whoa to further credit, the Government being very worried about assett bubbles. Anyway, the whole has had an impact on commodity prices and with the fall in the commodity prices, so goes the Aussie.
Dio
One of our main trading partners, Japan, is at 100% (it looks like 200% sometimes but that ignores an in and out which brings it back to 100%). Still, 100% is 100%. Their problem was that at the highest company levels, bank levels and government levels the interlocking ownership meant that one down, all down and for a couple of decades this has absolutely paralysed Japan from getting rid of the toxic debt at the heart of their economic pain.
[elephants in room is USA , Dems hav had Congess since 2007 and spent like there is no tomorrow]
Hello? What about the Bush tax cuts that were funded from debt?
What about the Medicare prescription drug benefit, the BIGGEST entitlement the congress has passed in the last 20 years when the Republicans were in the majority, which again was funded purely from debt?
The two biggest pieces of expenditure other than those are the TARP fund, which was signed into law by a Republican president, and the stimulus package, which only passed the Senate thanks to the votes of 3 Republicans.
Ron
The trillions, the trillions!
No need to be partisan about the US mess. The contribution has been bipartisan. Its the system.
does that mean 3 more noughties added
[all down and for a couple of decades this has absolutely paralysed Japan from getting rid of the toxic debt at the heart of their economic pain.]
Oh, and the government spent billions on pork barrel rural infrastructure projects that added nothing to the economy.
Paul Nash,
Any relation of Fiona’s?
ShowsOn
Posted Friday, February 5, 2010 at 7:43 pm | Permalink
elephants in room is USA , Dems hav had Congess since 2007 and spent like there is no tomorrow
“Hello?”
now you dont want me to make a complete dikhead out of you , by quoting Dems deficts & debbt increasing since 2006 do ya
ShowsON
Yep. My favourite story about what is about to happen in China is that of a certain municipality that, in order to meet its stimulus expenditure target, tore down an overhead roadway and rebuilt it.
Could be an urban myth. Maybe, maybe not.
[Oh, and the government spent billions on pork barrel rural infrastructure projects that added nothing to the economy.]
Sounds familiar pre 2007.
there sytem is Congress plus POTUS , seeing you dont know
I well remember Bryan Palmer’s site in 2007 being swamped by insult trade after insult trade from posters. It became tiresome and ridiculous.
It became so ridiculous that one poster threatened to sue another poster for defamation.
Defamation! Can you believe it?
“Your Honour. This person defamed my good name – my good ghost name”
It wasn’t long after that, that Bryan shut down the site.
That left a bunch of us refugees without a home, so we jumped onto on a cyber boat and fled to William’s site, among others.
There’s no need for any of that drivel and William is absolutely correct in banning people for gross stupidity. Otherwise it’ll get completely out of hand.
If you don’t like his way of running things, go start your own bloody site and insult to your heart’s content!
He’s a blog monitor not a playground supervisor.
[I hope you weren’t the person who said they bought Spanish bonds to fund their solar plants.]
Dio, twas not me but I do have an interest in what France does