Morgan: 56.5-43.5

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll shows Labor’s two-party lead at 56.5-43.5, down from the surprisingly strong 58.5-41.5 recorded a fortnight ago. Labor is down 1.5 per cent on the primary vote to 46 per cent and the Coalition are up 2.5 per cent to 38 per cent, with the Greens down 1.5 per cent to 8.5 per cent. Other news:

• Belinda Neal faces a preselection challenge in Robertson from Deborah O’Neill, education teacher at the University of Newcastle and narrowly unsuccessful state candidate for Gosford in 2003. According to Peter van Onselen of The Australian, O’Neill’s challenge has “the tacit approval of NSW Labor Right powerbrokers”, with Labor sources backing recent reports that party polling shows Neal headed for defeat. John Della Bosca, however, is feared to be ready to “pull out all stops to save his wife”. Members of Labor’s Ourimbah have passed a motion calling on Belinda Neal to bow out, but according to Neal, the branch consists of “approximately six members”. Interestingly, the Prime Minister has been making positive noises about Neal recently. The Daily Telegraph reports police officer Darren Jameson has as expected been preselected as Liberal candidate, despite earlier suggestions former member Jim Lloyd would seek to make a comeback.

• Labor’s member for the north Queensland seat of Dawson, James Bidgood, has announced he will bow out at the next election for health reasons. Bidgood gained the seat from Nationals member De-Anne Kelly in 2007 after picking up a 13.2 per cent swing, and has been chiefly noted since for offering the media pictures he had taken of a protester setting fire to himself in front of Parliament House, and saying the global financial crisis was a result of God “bringing judgement”. Labor’s margin after the election was 3.2 per cent, which the redistribution has reduced to 2.4 per cent.

• David Elliott, chief executive of the Civil Contractors Federation and one-time press secretary to Opposition Leader Peter Collins, has launched a preselection challenge against state upper house member and Right faction powerbroker David Clarke. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Elliott previously had his eyes on the lower house seat of Riverstone. He unsuccessfully contested preselection for the federal seat of Mitchell against Clarke’s arch-rival of the Right, Alex Hawke. Clarke has the backing of Barry O’Farrell, and according to Salusinszky may find unlikely support from the Left. Nonetheless, Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reckons Clarke to be “at serious risk of losing” due to backing for Elliott from Nick Campbell, state party president and an ally of Hawke.

• The Nationals have preselected David Gillespie to run against independent Rob Oakeshott in Lyne.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the timetable for the federal redistribution of Victoria, which Antony Green explains will definitely not be in effect before the next election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,180 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  1. [Can someone please ban ShowsOn for being an obnoxious twit.]

    Oh TTH, stop with the false indignation. You know that you revel, nay you wallow, in being PollBludger’s resident xenophobe and all your posts are written with the aim of conserving your eminent position.

  5. [Just heard Tone on ABC radio news saying a labor deal with the greens, on the ETS, will be disaster for the economy.]

    It’ll be more of a disaster for Tone I’d imagine. 😉

  6. bob

    why oops.

    If as stated:

    [… he had struggled increasingly with personal health issues over the past six months. According to one insider, he reluctantly made the choice to put his wife and three children first, and leave national politics.]

  7. Gary Bruce
    Posted Friday, February 5, 2010 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

    “You’re just going to have to try harder Ron. Bob and Peter just hate me. Gee, it doesn’t get more satisfying than that.”

    not content to malicously sabotage me , you brag as well

    am gonna develop a complex ‘soft’ strategy to win back my unpopularity throne ,
    with my gentle natured friend GG to advise me

  9. #53
    bob1234
    Posted Friday, February 5, 2010 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    “oos.”
    #
    54
    bob1234
    Posted Friday, February 5, 2010 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    “oops even”

    seems Troothy and Bob 123456 ar th same person

  11. Everyone seems to be forgetting that Labor and the Greens don’t have a Senate majority, so a “Labor-Greens deal” on the ETS doesn’t make much since this side of the election. It would require a bill acceptable to both the Greens and the Liberal Senate defectors, which seems unlikely unless the Greens are willing to make most of the concessions. And why would they do that? Their whole election strategy is based on differentiating themselves from Labor. Do do a deal with Labor now would be to damage their brand just before the election. The time for Labor-Greens deals is when we have a Labor-Greens Senate.

  12. [Everyone seems to be forgetting that Labor and the Greens don’t have a Senate majority, so a “Labor-Greens deal” on the ETS doesn’t make much since this side of the election…]

    It does if it is seen as an interim compromise, the Greens can still advocate their position at an election. The common enemy comes into play.

  13. [Everyone seems to be forgetting that Labor and the Greens don’t have a Senate majority, so a “Labor-Greens deal” on the ETS doesn’t make much since this side of the election.]

    True but now the Greens have to be seen as negotiating positively in order to rescue their brand. The last image that remains in the public’s memory is that of Bob Brown sitting with the global warming denialists, Fielding and Joyce.

  17. [Where is your evidence that that image is in the general public`s memory?]

    I am sure that Psephos can resurrect a classic photo of the trio to satisfy you

  18. The owner of the LNP in trouble again 😉
    [Palmer sanctioned over corruption claims JIM MORTON
    February 5, 2010 – 5:24PM .
    AAP

    Billionaire Gold Coast United owner Clive Palmer is once again in hot water after accusing the Football Federation Australia of corruption.

    The FFA on Friday afternoon hit Palmer with a code of conduct charge after the outspoken Coast chairman alleged the governing body had an agenda against his club.]
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-sport/palmer-sanctioned-over-corruption-claims-20100205-nibf.html

  20. [Everyone seems to be forgetting that Labor and the Greens don’t have a Senate majority, so a “Labor-Greens deal” on the ETS doesn’t make much since this side of the election.]
    It would at least demonstrate that the government is TRYING to negotiate a new deal, i.e. it would show how unreasonable the Liberals are.

  21. Psephos@61
    [The time for Labor-Greens deals is when we have a Labor-Greens Senate.]
    Maybe they feel that a deal is inevitable, so they might as well hammer it out now, get it rejected twice, take the bill it to the next election and smash the LNP vote.

  22. See more misinfo on CC by Greens today about Labor & Garnaut

    Labors ETS IS Garnauts Final Report actual recomend in both its 5%% AND it applying till world deel is made

    Labors ETS IS also Garnauts Final recomend re fist year being a carbon tax as a transiton

    Kevin rudd will push this thru Senate and see if 2 or more Libs buckle , so he should
    Greens (new) polisy is unaceptable to Labor as it has no end date meaning its CC deficited ( and not linked to end with a World deel , unlike Labors ,)

    and Abbott will just say Govt is indecisive if they took Greens no fixed end opton having no end date

    Rudd will eithr go to an electon with his defeated ETS or maybe offer Greens HIS (and Garnauts) 12 mths transiton mechanism converted to aplying UNTIL a World deel is made

    ie its a fixed long term plan showing decisiv PM leadership

    Labor would do NO other

    but thats acadamic Senate wise without Fieldings vote , but it may mean politcaly both going to electon undivided re an ETS VS Abbotts non ETS majic pudding

    that would make CC sense , but not politcaly as how would Greens separate themselves from Labor to voters , unless they left diff between them to th degree of cabon cost calced , and th poluter & consumer compo

  23. The ALP is gearing up for the election. In Eden Monaro the volunteer office staff have been activated and are ringing around to ensure that all volunteers from last election are willing to work on the campaign trail again. They seem particularly keen to work on the newly gained area around Batemans Bay.

  24. “Everyone seems to be forgetting that Labor and the Greens don’t have a Senate majority, so a “Labor-Greens deal” on the ETS doesn’t make much since this side of the election.”

    Aren’t 2 Lib senators going to cross the floor.

  25. One Lib senator might and I was hoping SenX might step up, but after hearing him in the Senate during the week it seems unlikely.

  26. [Aren’t 2 Lib senators going to cross the floor.]

    They crossed the floor to support the current bill, which was after all approved by the Lib-Nat shadow cabinet. But that bill is not acceptable to the Greens. If Labor agreed to a more radical bill that was acceptable to the Greens (higher targets, less compensation, no purchase of overseas permits), I doubt any Libs would support it.

  31. It does not matter, the ETS will probably not pass in its current form. Do the Greens want to fight a DD fighting Labor and the Libs on CC? I doubt it.

    An interim compromise has plenty of space for wriggle room.

  32. [try to think of the Labor movement, not as putting an extra sixpence into somebody’s pocket, or making somebody Prime Minister or Premier, but as a movement bringing something better to the people, better standards of living, greater happiness to the mass of the people. We have a great objective—the light on the hill—which we aim to reach by working for the betterment of mankind not only here but anywhere we may give a helping hand. If it were not for that, the Labor movement would not be worth fighting for.]

    says it all

  33. Apologies but having just caught up on posts….from previous thread…
    Zoomster said:
    [my say
    not being responded to is not something to be worried about.
    People tend to get jumped on if others think they’re wrong, so if you’re not getting responses it probably means most posters are happy with what you’ve said.]
    Scarpat said:
    [As zoomster says, most people are probably are in violent agreement with what you post.]
    So, when I posted about fast food workers who will have their Sunday penalty rates cut, and retail staff stand to lose nightly overtime pay, because the Fair Work tribunal bowed to employer complaints about the new awards, I can assume you are all happy with this? I make this assumption because no one responded with any comment whatsoever when I posted about this. Peter Young did make a post about the penalty rate cuts much later and again no one responded.

  34. Gary Bruce
    Posted Friday, February 5, 2010 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

    am fiting back

    “LOL. Thems are fighting words Ron.I’ll be defending my crown with gusto.”

    your ‘thems’ word

    you know how i just luv those ‘e’ letters , well I just goona hav to use one now

    ‘themes’ , a theme that Troothy and Bob 123456 reely being one and th same person may be catchy , and that may make bob 123456 quite a happy chappy

  35. [So, when I posted about fast food workers who will have their Sunday penalty rates cut, and retail staff stand to lose nightly overtime pay, because the Fair Work tribunal bowed to employer complaints about the new awards, I can assume you are all happy with this? I make this assumption because no one responded with any comment whatsoever when I posted about this.]

    Do the fast food workers or retail staff get penalty rates under existing conditions?

  36. “If Labor agreed to a more radical bill that was acceptable to the Greens (higher targets, less compensation, no purchase of overseas permits), I DOUBT any Libs would support it.”

    abit generous there Adam

    one could lay London to a brick that will not occur

  37. [The latest Morgan face-to-face poll shows Labor’s two-party lead at 56.5-43.5, down from the surprisingly strong 58.5-41.5 recorded a fortnight ago.]

    Taking out the 5+ Labor Morgan Bias this leaves us with:

    Labor 51.5% to Coalitions 48.5%.

    It appears the Coalition is gaining ground.

  40. [I make this assumption because no one responded with any comment whatsoever when I posted about this.]

    Pegasus, as Omar Khayyam put it so poetically “the moving finger types and moves on…”

  43. Okay this is ridiculous.

    Bob gets banned for saying the word “hack” but ShowsOn is constantly referring to me as an idiot and goes unpunished.

  44. [The current Senate is not going to pass a climate bill of any kind, unless the Greens back down and vote for the current bill, which they won’t.]
    They should put the compensation bill to the Senate individually, and dare the Liberals to block it.

  45. [Do the fast food workers or retail staff get penalty rates under existing conditions?]

    When I worked at a fast food place in 2002 I didn’t get penalty rates for Sunday. Sundays I just got paid the same rate as any other day.

  46. [For those interested in the Men & Work Coptyright fiaso there is a very good Facebook page]

    Check your Super portfolio… there are bigger things to worry about than a mediocre 1980’s band.

  47. [Bob gets banned for saying the word “hack” but ShowsOn is constantly referring to me as an idiot and goes unpunished.]
    I’m just engaging perfectly appropriately with your highly sophisticated debating style.

    PS:

    I never called you an idiot, I called you The Idiot.

  48. [For those interested in the Men & Work Coptyright fiaso there is a very good Facebook page on the subject and it seems even most of the industry is disgusted at this stupid decision ]

    Frank

    Sorry old chum but you are WronG.

    The kookaburra riff has been well known for yonks

  49. [Bob gets banned for saying the word “hack” but ShowsOn is constantly referring to me as an idiot and goes unpunished.]

    TTH, the conclusion to be drawn is that bob1234 was in the wrong and ShowsOn is in the right.

  50. [Sorry old chum but you are WronG.

    The kookaburra riff has been well known for yonks]
    But what I don’t understand is ALL referencing of other songs copyright infringement?

    For example, jazz musicians FREQUENTLY reference other songs when they perform solos. Does this mean they should have to pay royalties for all the other songs they reference, because I don’t see references in the CD track listings. E.g. I don’t see a reference in Miles Davis’ album Filles De Kilimanjaro that the song Mademoiselle Mabury references Jimi Hendrix’s song The Wind Cries Mary. Does that mean the Hendrix estate could sue the Miles Davis estate?

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