Morgan: 58.5-41.5

Hard to say what to make of a poll conducted last weekend in the present fluid circumstances, but the latest Morgan face-to-face poll suggests the Oceanic Viking issue was washing out of the system even before the Liberal Party went into its present meltdown. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 48 per cent while the Coalition is down one to 35.5 per cent. The Greens are steady on 9 per cent; most of the balance comes from Family First, which has corrected from 3 per cent to 1.5 per cent after an aberrant result last week. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 56.5-43.5 to 58.5-41.5. Elsewhere:

• Antony Green’s blog has been a hive of activity recently. Of particular interest is his latest post, in which he departs his comfort zone to assert we can expect a by-election in Wentworth if the Liberal leadership saga plays out as presently expected. Also featured is an epic account of the bureaucratic nightmare involved in the enrolment of young voters, apropos the NSW government’s plans to introduce automatic enrolment.

• Peter Kennedy of the ABC reports the resurgent WA Nationals have chosen John McCourt to head their Senate ticket. The party made a big fanfare of its Senate hopes at its state conference earlier this year, promising a campaign heavily funded by unpleasant Queensland mining billionaire Clive Palmer.

• The Advertiser tells us it has seen internal party polling (we are not told which party’s) which shows the Liberals were building a head of steam even before the past week’s unpleasantness. The Liberal primary vote across selected marginal seats (again we are not told which ones, which makes the figures hard to read) is said to have been 39 per cent to Labor’s 31 per cent (the undecided were presumably not distributed), with the Liberals leading 52-48 on two-party preferred.

• Jeff Whalley of the Geelong Advertiser reports Kurt Reiter, managing director of IT consultancy Digital Quay, has been preselected to run against Labor’s Lisa Neville in the state seat of Bellarine.

• Nino Bucci of the Bendigo Advertiser reports Anita Donlon, founder of the “Independent Musos Network” (can’t say I’ve met too many Liberal-voting “independent musos” in my time), and Michael Langdon, former Australian Technical college principal, are jockeying for Liberal preselection in Bendigo West and Bendigo East respectively. An announcement will be made next week.

• Western Australia’s Willagee state by-election, held to replace former Premier Alan Carpenter, will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding that these are not the happiest of times for state Labor, their candidate Peter Tinley should have no trouble seeing off a Green, an ex-Green independent and the Christian Democratic Party. I don’t think it would be too much of a stretch to say the most interesting thing about the by-election has been the Poll Bludger comments thread. Those wishing to discuss the by-election are invited to do so there; live coverage will as always be available here from the close of polling booths tomorrow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,749 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

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  2. [The only thing now properly established is your prediliction for smut and gossip.]

    C’mon Dio. We have had the gossip, now how about some smut

  3. Thanks Muskiemp @ 2348 (gosh this blog moves so quickly you go off to watch Joanna Lumley explore Norway on ABC TV and pages have gone by!). I realised that and apologised for it at my post @ 2292. As I said – I should wear my specs more!

  4. [Where’s Glen? He always gets so indignant when we crack the Sloppy Joe funnies it makes me LOL]

    And it’s a shame GP isn’t allowed to post at the moment!

    He’d be an absolute hoot with all this going on! 😉

    If you’re lurking, hi GP! Good fun eh?

  7. Can someone find me a link to the video, or the text of what Turnbull said earlier (the one where he lets loose on Minchin)?

  8. Diogs

    I’m with you. Hockey will be forced to play his hand and take the leadership.

    ETS will be talkedout without a vote or go to commitee.

  9. [Diogs,

    You make so many conflicting predictions that no one can count on anything you say.

    The only thing now properly established is your prediliction for smut and gossip.]

    Don’t be too hard on him, he’s had a few impressive rIGHt ones even if there’ve been plenty of wRONgs 🙂

  11. Dio,
    [If the first two happen, the third is a given.]

    He might be able to share a ward with Mr Grech! They’ll be able to swap ideas on where it all went so horribly wRONg! 😉

  13. We know Joe ain’t too clever but how big is his ego?’?
    If the whackaloons were to give it a good stroking, like telling Joe that he was the way more popular one on Sunrise and in a PPM contest he’d leave Rudd for dead, would Big Joe fall for the flattery and challenge Malcolm?

  15. [Can someone find me a link to the video, or the text of what Turnbull said earlier (the one where he lets loose on Minchin)?]
    http://today.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=977386
    This is just the first mention of Minchin:
    [MT: Well, Nick Minchin has talked about there being a left-wing conspiracy about climate change, I don’t agree with that, but I do note that the Queen has urged Commonwealth nations to take the lead in combating climate change and that might perhaps make Tony Abbott, a noted monarchist, reconsider his position. He’s changed his mind a few times of course, so there’s always scope for another shift.]

  20. Andrew, The editorial uses (without referencing Murdoch) that wonderful line “… the planet must be given the benefit of the doubt.” Turnbull used it on Thursday evening and Rudd will use it through to the election and beyond.

    I despise Murdoch for many things but his authorship of that simple line deserves credit. It’s a killer.

  23. [ “… the planet must be given the benefit of the doubt.” ]

    First used, I think, by the father of the Green Revolution, Norman Borlaug, who died on the 13th september, at age 95.

  24. Yes Steve, Turnbull is smart to use Murdoch’s words. I wonder though whether he should have gone in as hard on Minchin, Abbott and Hockey. Is it sheer desparation?? Wont it just alienate more MPs???

  25. fredex,

    If it’s not up on the Oz’s web site around 11-00pm tonight I’ll be very surprised!

    But I may be wrong! I have been known to be wrong, even when I am right! 😉

  26. Just saw a replay of Minchin giving a presser on Sky News. I don’t know what time it was taken, but Minchin sounded confident and at ease. The time is closing on yet another political career of a party leader. Since election night in 07 we have had Howard, Cossie, Brenda and now the Merchant Banker 🙂

  29. I cannot see Hockey taking on the leadership at this point. The Liberals can go through 10 leaders and the discord will not die down until they settle their policy on climate change. All of this discord has been provoked by the Minchinovs. Had they accepted Turnbull’s call at the outset, the ETS would have passed by now; Turnbull would be seen as a great reformer and the Liberals would be back in the political game.

    There will be plenty of time for Hockey and any number of others to try themselves out as leaders, but if they don’t get on top of the climate change issue, they really won’t have a party worth leading.

  30. The PM should tell Her Majesty that her speech at CHOGM went down a treat and that she should make an even stronger push for dealing with CC in her Christmas day message.

    Also that your royal whatshisname who’s visiting next year should be worded up to demonstrate how in touch he and his fellow royal bludgers are with our struggling planet by making many references as to how hot it is here in the penal colony and how it’s about time something was done about it.

  32. Mmmh.

    I too, Fredex, would like to see the next Newspoll. Supposing that they asked the relevant questions.

    Otherwise, it would be a snow job.

  34. [Whose going to watch ‘order in the house’

    Worth taping I reckon]
    I record it whenever its on.
    [All of this discord has been provoked by the Minchinovs. Had they accepted Turnbull’s call at the outset]
    It wasn’t JUST Turnbull’s call. If you exclude the Nationals, who were all committed to voting against it, the Liberals were in favour of voting for the amended CPRS by a margin of about 10.

    This whole fiasco has been confected by the denial nutters because they can’t handle losing a fair fight fair and square.

  36. scorpio,

    [I have been known to be wrong, even when I am right! ]

    Yes, I remember that occasion when you said you were wrong and it turned out that in fact you were right.

  37. [The PM should tell Her Majesty that her speech at CHOGM went down a treat]
    Bolt dismissed the speech on Insiders by saying it was probably written by the U.K. government.

    Surely the Queen SOMETIMES says things on her own accord?

  38. [This whole fiasco has been confected by the denial nutters because they can’t handle losing a fair fight fair and square]

    Yup. With any luck they will get what’s coming to them.

  46. Budgee smugglers and politicians.

    1. Harold Holt : Okay as long as you can swim.
    2. Bob Hawke : Less than meet the eyes.
    3. Peter Debnam : In the navy.
    4. Tony Abbott : No one takes me seriously anyway.

  47. Frank @ 2480 – how could you? What is it about some politicians that they have to do this? Don’t they get enough exposure on TV as it is? LOL. Springborg doing his ironing ironing just wearing a towel, that Peter fellow in NSW (I’m from Qld so don’t know all the NSW pollies) in HIS budgie smugglers and now the Mad Monk himself. I suppose it appeals to some voters!

  50. Loved the Macbeth reference, someone earlier, perhaps Socrates.

    And Dave, some time back, your lyrical and apt take.

    Enjoyed hugely by the household.

    As Banjo fans.

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