Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition in NSW

The Sydney Morning Herald has published a Nielsen poll of NSW state voting intention, evidently commissioned to ascertain whether Nathan Rees’s recent purge has yielded the hoped-for electoral dividends. The answer is a fairly emphatic no: Labor’s primary vote remains at a ruinous 31 per cent (remembering that the primary vote figure is of greater significance under optional preferential voting), little different from any poll from the past year. The Coalition’s primary vote is 43 per cent, and it leads 55-45 on two-party preferred. Rees at least appears to have shaved a few points off his disapproval rating, though it remains at 49 per cent against 39 per cent approval. He nonetheless has a 43-40 lead as preferred premier over Barry O’Farrell, who has an approval rating of 44 per cent against 36 per cent disapprove. The Herald’s Andrew Clennell further quotes a line from Liberal internal research: “’Notwithstanding the past two weeks, the principle criticism of Rees remains consistent: that he is a puppet of corrupt and untrustworthy Labor ‘machine’ politicians.”

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

16 comments on “Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition in NSW”

  1. Yet more evidence of NSW Labor’s impending oblivion. Nothing much else to say.

    They should acknowledge this and go about actually doing things which will set themselves up for an earlier return to Government.

  2. Same old, same old, isn’t it?

    I wonder if any Labor types will even be bothered trying to claim that the Liberals should be 99% in front by now, so 55-45 is a disaster for them……

  3. [The Herald’s Andrew Clennell further quotes a line from Liberal internal research: “’Notwithstanding the past two weeks, the principle criticism of Rees remains consistent: that he is a puppet of corrupt and untrustworthy Labor ‘machine’ politicians.”]

    Couldn’t have put it any better.

    NSW Labor needs a good thorough pounding so they blood a stack of new talent in. Deadwood clearance is a must.

  4. MDMConnell – as someone who has only voted Labor or Greens in NSW, I do think the 2party should be higher and in reality is. Optional preferential means that the ALP is headed for a bigger disaster than 55-45, which shows about a 7.5% swing 2PP. On that swing there will be a hung parliament.

    I do not believe there will be a hung parliament. The Coalition will form a majority government.

    My question about the ALP unfortunately after 14 years is “What is one good thing they both started and finished?

  5. I agree the 2PP calculations understate how dire Labor’s position is, in reality they are tracking well below 1988 and are likely to lose many of the middle-class Sydney seats they just held in 1988 and which meant that they were able to function as a viable opposition in 1998-91. If Rees continues to play his cards a bit better, as he has been doing, Labor has a chance of clawing back some of their core support which could make the difference between a very bad loss and a complete wipeout.

  6. Even if gaining the power to sack minister, and then using it, turns out to be a positive for Rees, I think it’s too early to expect to have seen a bounce. The act in itself doesn’t mean anything but starts to give Rees a fighting chance of changing perceptions down the line. I still think he’s got Buckley’s but he’s better off now that before this happened.

    The state Labor government is as friendless as it deserves to be, but remember the alternative is made up of those not talented enough to make it into the federal politics, and we all know who balanced and intelligent the federal liberals are, right?

  7. Also, never underestimate the Liberals’ capacity to commit electoral suicide in the months before a poll. They say a week is a long time in politics (last week certainly was in the federal arena!) but it’s over a year to the NSW election.

  8. Andrew Owens

    The Labor are the ones who have repeatedly committed electoral suicide over the last 4 years

    Latest report out, Labor’s lack of infrastructure spending on electricity means that electricity prices in NSW will rise by 60% over the next 3 years


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