| # | % | SWING | 2PP | |
| Chew (CDP) | 1170 | 6.9% | ||
| Tinley (ALP) | 9123 | 53.8% | 1.7% | 60.0% |
| Harper (GRN) | 5177 | 30.5% | 13.8% | 40.0% |
| Georgatos (IND) | 1478 | 8.7% | ||
| TOTAL | 16948 | |||
| COUNTED: | 76.8% | |||
| BOOTHS (OF 12): | 12 |
Sunday. I’ve identified nine previous by-elections which were contested by Labor and the Greens but not the Liberals – four federal in which Labor was in opposition, and five state in which they were in government. The average result overall was a 0.11 per cent primary vote swing against Labor. In the state by-elections it was 0.9 per cent against Labor; in the federal by-elections it was 0.88 per cent to Labor. Six of the results were worse for Labor than Willagee, while only three were better.
However, I’d argue that one of these by-elections didn’t fit the mould. That was the Isaacs federal by-election in 2000, caused by the death of Greg Wilton. All the others were like Willagee in that they were caused by the voluntary mid-term departure of the sitting member, which demonstrably leads voters to be unhappy with the party concerned. Sure enough, Isaacs was Labor’s best result out of the 10, with their primary vote increasing 8.1 per cent. Take that out of the equation and Labor on average suffered a 1.14 per cent swing overall, or 1.53 per cent against when limited to the federal by-elections conducted while they were in opposition. Only two of eight results were better for Labor than Willagee, against six worse.
8.19pm. It’s in. With the notional two-party result with all booths counted plus (I presume) the evening’s supply of postals and pre-polls, the WAEC’s notional 2CP result is 60.53-39.47. My rough yardstick for the evening had been 50-30-10-10, so Labor can feel pleased, particularly with the psychologically important achievement of having improved their primary vote. My expectation of a Greens primary vote of 30 per cent factored in that it had been an unhappy campaign for them, but their 30.6 per cent is nonetheless a reasonable result that again demonstrates Liberal voters’ willingness to vote tactically. I’m told the Gerry Georgatos campaign had a fairly low profile at polling booths, which probably helps explain the surprising fact that the Greens got more preferences than Labor despite both minor candidates directing against them on HTV cards. Much of his support would have come from Liberals parking their vote with the only available independent and following their normal habit of putting Labor last, and he equally has a support base among natural Greens sympathisers.
8.04pm. I gather we’re still awaiting one booth’s notional 2CP count, and that will be it for the evening.
7.52pm. To clarify, the WAEC’s “2CP count” obviously refers to the full distribution of preferences, which will not be conducted until all the votes are in. They would do better to call it that.
7.45pm. Final two booths, Coolbellup Primary School and Southern Districts Senior Citizens Centre, have reported, respectively giving Labor a relatively poor and relatively good result.
7.43pm. Looks like the Greens are doing quite a bit better on preferences than either I or Antony Green had estimated. With real figures to play with, my 2PP figure for Labor has gone down from 63.0 per cent to 60.4 per cent.
7.37pm. The WAEC have outsmarted me. I had been hitting refresh on their “two-candidate preferred” page and coming up with nothing. It turns out they have a separate page called “notional distribution of preferences”. I will be interested to learn what the distinction between these two concepts is. No polling booth breakdown is offered.
7.33pm. The Greens might have spoken too soon in claiming victory there – 306 to 297 in favour of Tinley. Nonetheless, it’s given them their biggest primary vote swing of 23.0 per cent. Continuing the trend of Fremantle, evidently a lot of Liberals are happy to thumb their nose at Labor by parking their votes with the Greens.
7.32pm. Anglican Church of the Holy Cross Hall in Melville added.
7.25pm. Labor primary vote up slightly at Samson Primary School; just keeping their nose in front in the race to improve on their 2008 primary vote.
7.24pm. Samson Primary School added.
7.19pm. Greens Twitter feed reports they have won the Anglican Church of the Holy Cross Hall, which presumably means on the primary vote. This is Labor’s weakest and the Liberals’ strongest booth in the electorate. The other strong Liberal booth is the just reported Melville Senior High School – with a lot of slack to be taken up here there were solid primary vote swings for both Labor and Greens.
7.18pm. Melville Senior High School and Southwell Primary School added.
7.15pm. Labor vote down 5.1 per cent in Hilton, their weakest result yet.
7.13pm. Hilton Primary School and 933 pre-polls added.
7.08pm. East Hamilton Hill the first polling booth to give the Greens a single figure primary vote swing – however, this was a particularly poor booth for the Liberals, so there was less slack to be taken up. Labor down 2.3 per cent; touch and go whether they’ll break even.
7.07pm. East Hamilton Hill Primary School added. Still no real 2PP results.
7.02pm. Southern Districts Senior Citizens Centre (Drive-in) sees a lot more business this time around – 126 votes compared to 18.
6.59pm. Labor down slightly in both, Greens up 13.0 per cent and 17.9 per cent.
6.58pm. Caralee Community School and North Lake Senior Campus added.
6.52pm. Phoenix Primary School in – Labor down 3.6 per cent, Greens up 11.7 per cent.
6.48pm. All three sources have Labor up on the primary vote, though by wildly varying amounts. Same goes for the Greens – if their increase in Palmyra from 16.4 per cent 35.8 per cent is typical of the polling booth results, they will make up a lot of ground from the present scoreline.
6.47pm. 1658 postal votes added (this won’t be all of them).
6.46pm. Palmyra Primary School booth added.
6.35pm. A note of explanation. Vote numbers and the percentage figures to their right are raw votes. The swing and 2PP figures are derived through booth matching, so Tinley’s primary vote from special institutions and hospitals is 22.4 per cent higher than Carpenter’s was. The 2PP figure is based on a guesstimate that Liberal preferences would have gone 80-20 in favour of the Greens in 2008, and that this time CDP preferences will go 70-30 to Labor and Georgatos’s will split 50-50. On that basis, there has been a 25.2 per cent swing to Labor from special institutions and hospitals in Labor-versus-Greens terms. The CDP and Georgatos preference splits I’m using will be superseded by real preference splits when notional two-party figures start to come in.
6.31pm. Special institutions and hospitals are in. Good enough for me – I’m calling it for Tinley.
6.10pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Willagee by-election count. First figures should be through in about 15 minutes or so.
It’s possible that this statement was made earlier in the night before the count had concluded. Actually, I’d say it’s likely.
It’s not really plausible that she would say that after the final result. I don’t know what advantage you think she would be trying to gain by saying that her vote was 5% more than it actually was.
It is quite plausible however that a News Ltd. article would place a quote in an article out of context. Not for nefarious reasons, just because journalists are overworked and tend not to care about fact checking on dead-rubber by-elections.
Sam,
That is a direct quote.
Bob, come on.
“I think she did pretty well considering she got a 13% swing”
… when the party that got almost 31% last time didn’t run at all. It means they picked up less than half of the votes up for grabs, and Labor actually *gained* votes on 2008.
Are we forgetting there was an independent Green with 9% of the vote?
Green candidates picked up a 22% swing at this by-election.
Labor picked up a 2% swing.
Swinging voters between Labor and Liberal decide elections, so Labor should be doing better than a 2% swing with no Liberal candidate.
[Green candidates picked up a 22% swing at this by-election.]
Bob at that point i stopped reading
do yourself a favour and get a calculator,preferably Bolta’s
I’ve identified nine previous by-elections which were contested by Labor and the Greens but not the Liberals – four federal in which Labor was in opposition, and five state in which they were in government. The average result overall was a 0.11 per cent primary vote swing against Labor. In the state by-elections it was 0.9 per cent against Labor; in the federal by-elections it was 0.88 per cent to Labor. Six of the results were worse for Labor than Willagee, while only three were better.
However, I’d argue that one of these by-elections didn’t fit the mould. That was the Isaacs federal by-election in 1999, caused by the death of Greg Wilton. All the others were like Willagee in that they were caused by the voluntary mid-term departure of the sitting member, which demonstrably leads voters to be unhappy with the party concerned. Sure enough, Isaacs was Labor’s best result out of the 10, with their primary vote increasing 8.1 per cent. Take that out of the equation and Labor on average suffered a 1.14 per cent swing overall, or 1.53 per cent against when limited to the federal by-elections conducted while they were in opposition. Only two of eight results were better for Labor than Willagee, against six worse.
[ Only two of eight results were better for Labor than Willagee, against six worse.]
Oh why do you ruin the greens fun and fantasy with FACTS
damn you and your adherence to telling the truth
😉
Just out of interest, William, which seats were these?
To be totally fair to the Greens, I’d suggest that Marrickville, Cunningham, Albert Park, Williamstown and obviously Freo are naturally much “Greener” seats than Willagee.
Willagee would probably be best compared to something like Maroubra, or maybe the federal seat of Holt, I’m assuming.
Congratulations to every candidate – to Gerry, Hsien and Peter. I didn’t want Henry to do well but congratulations to all.
Peter can’t do worse than Alan.
To help people with your, Gerry did not do a HTV therefore he did not direct preferences to anyone, he only nominally directed them when asked by the press who he would preference. He paid for the campaign out of his pocket and I know it financially hurt him as he isn’t rich and it was too much to ask him to pay for HTV and he had knocked back funding and he didn’t want to determine the outcome in this way.
Gerry also pulled everyone off that wanted to help him on the polling day as he had campaigned the two weeks before all alone and wanted to leave it at that and see what one person could achieve. He was the only person at the polling booths scooting from one to the next and without any HTV. He let people make their own minds up, that is why the Greens out polled Labor on preferences! So Gerry didn’t direct anything. The Greens must have had a 100 people out there, Labor 280 it’s said, and red and green we’re flying everywhere, the CDP had about 40 out there and Gerry had just himself, so fucking wow.
I think it is fantastic he out polled the CDP on primaries and to achieve 1,478 votes is big for a one person team. 1,478 verse 5,100 verse 9,000 is incredible. He must have also polled the second preference at about 80%, interesting to get that information.
In a two party race with a big show from all Labor did well to get 54% and the Greens shouldn’t be too disappointed with 30% because although they actually did badly when you analyse it, they can argue that they improved by 12% from the last one. Interesting stat is Gerry polled 8.71% single handedly and in the 2005 Willagee election, the Greens with Hsien again polled 8.7% as a whole party effort!
I am reminded of Gerry’s election result prediction two weeks ago:
Labor – 55%
Greens – 30%
Gerry – 9%
CDP – 6%
He’s good isn’t he!
Congrats methinks to all and have a good rest.
Frank A.
MDMConnell – Willagee contains Palmyra and Hilton which have increasingly become Green-friendly suburbs and would I’d reckon represent 1/4 to 1/3 of the electorate. The rest is more typically working class with a definite ethnic flavour.
Bob – calling him an “independent Green” is as delusional as the Greens rep who tried to include the vote I gained in Vic Park in 2006 with the Greens. (I ran an open preference ticket and I had no deals with the three very diverse parties who gave me No.3 on their tickets.) It ignores the fact that Georgatas ran a public campaign against the Greens and directed voters to Labor on his HTV.
“It is fair game, just as Greens Supporters criticised Peter Tinley for being a Military person and other vile accusatons about being a killing machine.
Glass Jaw anyone ?”
No Frank, getting smug about greens supporters talking about Tinleys background doesn’t give you a licence to be a sexist pig at all, and dude, protip here: Appending “Glass jaw” onto your every post doesn’t give you a knockout argument, it just makes you sound like a boring and repetitive troll.
“It’s possible that this statement was made earlier in the night before the count had concluded. Actually, I’d say it’s likely.”
According to the article , just after the count started, so presumably she was going on the opinions of her people at the booths. Pretty close guess if you factor out own-team enthusiasm I’d say. 4% out for the primary and spot on when you factor in preferences.
@109 Gerry pulled off everyone who wanted to help him? He must have RSI . . .
Stupid political parties, getting volunteers to help on election day. Why would they want to win 30,40, 50% of the vote when they could get 9% like Gerry did. That’s so glorious and single handedly he has changed the face of WA politics. He is indeed the next Bob Brown.
William, what was the average number of candidates in those by-elections you were comparing this with? I know in some of them there were a lot of minor party candidates. You’d expect Labor to do better on primaries where they only had to compete with the the Greens and two others than where they had to compete with the Greens plus seven, particularly if many of those seven had particular niches they appealed to.
That’s not to say I think this is a bad result for the ALP, I don’t. I’m just not sure you’re comparing apples with apples.
[No Frank, getting smug about greens supporters talking about Tinleys background doesn’t give you a licence to be a sexist pig at all, and dude, protip here: Appending “Glass jaw” onto your every post doesn’t give you a knockout argument, it just makes you sound like a boring and repetitive troll.]
Build a Bridge and call Wikndscreen O’Briens – no wonder I despise the Greens if their average supporter is as sanctimonius and pious as you.
Oh and Queen Adele will be a one poll wonder.
108
Seats such as Melbourne (federal), Melbourne (state), Richmond, Brunswick, Northcote, Prahran, Sydney (federal), Sydney (state) (in absence of Clover Moore), Balmain, Grayndler and probably Heffron should be on the Greener than Willagee list. Williamstown I would say is less Green than Willagee as I had a lower Green vote an the previous general and by-elections respectively.
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/stateby2007resultWilliamstownDistrict.html
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/state2006resultWilliamstownDistrict.html
I’ve never voted greens in my life Frank. This is the thing, your rabid hate for the left has blinded you into thinking that if someones not voting Labor they must be therefore an enemy to be exterminated.
But heres the gig, I was NOLS until it stopped making sense to be NOLS. And I was never a green.
But you still think what went down with Gerry had something was about the election don’t you?
[I’ve never voted greens in my life Frank. This is the thing, your rabid hate for the left has blinded you into thinking that if someones not voting Labor they must be therefore an enemy to be exterminated.
But heres the gig, I was NOLS until it stopped making sense to be NOLS. And I was never a green.
But you still think what went down with Gerry had something was about the election don’t you?]
Pull the other one – it plays GREENsleaves.
ugh. Bungle grammar.
I mean “You still think what went down with Gerry had something to do with the election, don’t you?”
“Pull the other one – it plays GREENsleaves.”
What the hell is wrong with you dude?
[“Pull the other one – it plays GREENsleaves.”
What the hell is wrong with you dude?]
Nothing wrong with me – it is your double standards and bhypocfrisy -p it is fine to attack Labor and Green, but if I DARE criticise the Sacred Green, you go ballistic.
it’s called Pot meet Kettle.
When did you ever see me attack labor? I’m a fecking labor voter you idiot.
[When did you ever see me attack labor? I’m a fecking labor voter you idiot.]
You could’ve fooled me.
Frank A…. is that you Gerry?
Tom the 1st / MDM: In the true spirit of Perth, we do things slightly differently in the west, so comparisons are difficult. Fremantle’s the port, so it’s equivalent in Melbourne would be Williamstown; I imagine that makes Willagee like Altona or Footscray. Imagine if Melbourne’s epicentre of Green voting was the western suburbs, instead of Fitzroy and Brunswick? That’s Perth for ya.
Melbourne and Sydney’s trendy inner cities are all covered by ALP/Grn marginals (or Clover Moore); here, I guess you’d call the inner city the three seats of Perth, Mt Lawley and Maylands, and they’re two safe ALP/Lib and one marginal Lib (Michael Sutherland, who needs to get booted next election for being a fool). The Greens get an OK vote in those seats, but not to the point of winning; Perth in particular is probably John Hyde’s for as long as he’s around. Anyway, because the rise of Adele Carles had a lot to do with protests against housing developments on the coast south of Fremantle, I’ll stick with my long-term prediction that the second Greens seat in the lower house will be Cockburn.
[I’m just not sure you’re comparing apples with apples.]
There’s something in that, but not much. It’s true that there were few candidates at this by-election, but there were even fewer at the 2008 election, so the minor candidate noise in my primary vote swing figure is very low. No doubt in a few of the other cases Labor lost a few votes to minor candidates they wouldn’t have lost otherwise, but I don’t take the view that it would have amounted to all that much. None of the by-elections had particularly strongly performing minor candidates – Kororoit for example isn’t included because there was a Liberal candidate.
[Bob – calling him an “independent Green” is as delusional as the Greens rep who tried to include the vote I gained in Vic Park in 2006 with the Greens.]
Um, which party did he hold preselection with before being dumped for another candidate?
The Greens.
[When did you ever see me attack labor? I’m a fecking labor voter you idiot.
You could’ve fooled me.]
frank
I think the person meant to say they liked to feck? labor.
By the tone of their posts they only fecked? themselves
#125
I recall people talking up the Scarborough as very Green-friendly territory, in contrast to the blue-rinse Lib electorates surrounding it. Any thoughts on their chances there?
[I recall people talking up the Scarborough as very Green-friendly territory, in contrast to the blue-rinse Lib electorates surrounding it.]
I’ve marshalled my local knowledge (I grew up in the area and continue to have family there) to note a slight tendency to that effect in the past. However, there’s really only a few percentage points in it. There is no prospect of them ever winning the seat.
[I’ve marshalled my local knowledge (I grew up in the area and continue to have family there) to note a slight tendency to that effect in the past. However, there’s really only a few percentage points in it. There is no prospect of them ever winning the seat.]
Would it be people mainly opposed to High Rise Developments like Observation City ?
The strongest Green votes in Perth at the State election were in Fremantle (by a mile), Hilton (part of Willagee), a belt stretching from [[West Leederville through Leederville, North Perth, part of Mt Lawley and Maylands to Bayswater]], the Perth Hills area either side of Gt Eastern Highway, and the suburb of Bassendean. Scarborough (not far from where I live) didn’t even really rate. The highest vote by far north of Scarb Beach Road was the Girrawheen part of the Glendale booth in Hamersley, and that may simply have reflected the fact there was only three candidates on the ballot. Outside of Perth, Margaret River/Yallingup, Denmark and Broome were the only interesting places for the Greens.
For comparison –
In 2005, the only bits over 18% for the Greens were in Leederville, West Leederville, Northbridge, Shenton Park (both booths), UWA, Cottesloe, Mosman Park and the district of Fremantle generally. In 2001, only Fremantle, E Fremantle and S Fremantle, plus Darlington and (strangely) Hope Valley near Kwinana. In 1996 (prepare for broken record) – Fremantle, N Fremantle and S Fremantle.
Federally, exactly the same areas light up – broadly, Fremantle/E/N/S and Beaconsfield and Hilton, Shenton Park, Subiaco, Northbridge and Highgate, Darlington and UWA.
(Sorry to post a third time – had an afterthought)
I’m not sure why Darlington stands out over and above other Perth Hills suburbs Green vote wise.
[I’m not sure why Darlington stands out over and above other Perth Hills suburbs Green vote wise.]
All the Arty Farty types live there, along with Stoneville.
[ In 2001, only Fremantle, E Fremantle and S Fremantle, plus Darlington and (strangely) Hope Valley near Kwinana. ]
Hope Valley and Wattleup got deregistered as townsites about that time, due to being so heavily polluted they figured the best thing to do with the place was to doze all the houses and turn the land into more industrial area. It’ll all be stuff serving the new outer harbour in another 10-15 years time. Maybe that’s what pushed the Green vote up?