Morgan: 58.5-41.5

Hard to say what to make of a poll conducted last weekend in the present fluid circumstances, but the latest Morgan face-to-face poll suggests the Oceanic Viking issue was washing out of the system even before the Liberal Party went into its present meltdown. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 48 per cent while the Coalition is down one to 35.5 per cent. The Greens are steady on 9 per cent; most of the balance comes from Family First, which has corrected from 3 per cent to 1.5 per cent after an aberrant result last week. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 56.5-43.5 to 58.5-41.5. Elsewhere:

• Antony Green’s blog has been a hive of activity recently. Of particular interest is his latest post, in which he departs his comfort zone to assert we can expect a by-election in Wentworth if the Liberal leadership saga plays out as presently expected. Also featured is an epic account of the bureaucratic nightmare involved in the enrolment of young voters, apropos the NSW government’s plans to introduce automatic enrolment.

• Peter Kennedy of the ABC reports the resurgent WA Nationals have chosen John McCourt to head their Senate ticket. The party made a big fanfare of its Senate hopes at its state conference earlier this year, promising a campaign heavily funded by unpleasant Queensland mining billionaire Clive Palmer.

• The Advertiser tells us it has seen internal party polling (we are not told which party’s) which shows the Liberals were building a head of steam even before the past week’s unpleasantness. The Liberal primary vote across selected marginal seats (again we are not told which ones, which makes the figures hard to read) is said to have been 39 per cent to Labor’s 31 per cent (the undecided were presumably not distributed), with the Liberals leading 52-48 on two-party preferred.

• Jeff Whalley of the Geelong Advertiser reports Kurt Reiter, managing director of IT consultancy Digital Quay, has been preselected to run against Labor’s Lisa Neville in the state seat of Bellarine.

• Nino Bucci of the Bendigo Advertiser reports Anita Donlon, founder of the “Independent Musos Network” (can’t say I’ve met too many Liberal-voting “independent musos” in my time), and Michael Langdon, former Australian Technical college principal, are jockeying for Liberal preselection in Bendigo West and Bendigo East respectively. An announcement will be made next week.

• Western Australia’s Willagee state by-election, held to replace former Premier Alan Carpenter, will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding that these are not the happiest of times for state Labor, their candidate Peter Tinley should have no trouble seeing off a Green, an ex-Green independent and the Christian Democratic Party. I don’t think it would be too much of a stretch to say the most interesting thing about the by-election has been the Poll Bludger comments thread. Those wishing to discuss the by-election are invited to do so there; live coverage will as always be available here from the close of polling booths tomorrow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,749 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

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  1. [I agree. They don’t want an eary election – but they can’t appear to back of because they were pushing it so urgently.]
    Keep in mind that March – May will basically be filled up with budget speculation.

    But if the Government puts the CPRS back through the house this week or in Feb, then by the March sittings they will certainly have a D.D. trigger.

  3. ShowsOn, that’s one thing I keep meaning to ask. Surely the level headed corporate sector must be fuming about the backdown. And if so is there any sign of a backlash? Are their lobbyists jumping up and down on the moderates in the LP?

  4. If Hockey took the job with the proviso he has to stop/delay the ETS then that would be madness (but is probably is what is intended).

    The only way Hockey should accept is if they agree to pass the ETS. The vote becomes Turnbull & possible ETS passage & continued right guerrilla warfare -V- Hockey & guaranteed ETS passage (with a guarantee to stop destabilising)

  6. Cud Chewer, give it a couple of weeks of relief from “asylum seekers” dominating every bulletin, plus public awareness of what a rabble the Liberals are (thanks Nick and Tony), I’d expect some waverers – if there are any voters that haven’t yet firmed their intentions – to move back to the government. All things being equal, next Newspoll: 59:41.

  7. [ShowsOn, that’s one thing I keep meaning to ask. Surely the level headed corporate sector must be fuming about the backdown.]
    I can’t recall where I read it, but certainly pressure from big business was one factor that played on the Liberal’s (Turnbull’s) mind.

    I am told that the management of Santos see a Labor / Liberal negotiated ETS as a much better prospect than a Labor / Green ETS that they fear would ramp up deep cuts faster than that could improve their extraction methods to reduce emissions, thus meaning they would need to buy more permits, and couldn’t sell their free permits to fund investment.

  10. [If Hockey took the job with the proviso he has to stop/delay the ETS then that would be madness (but is probably is what is intended).]
    Michin & Co. have probably sold him down a river. They are SAYING that they just want it delayed until after Copenhagen, but what they really mean is they want it delayed indefinitely so they can fight an election over it.

    The Government should agree to a committee that will report back to the Senate on 18th of December, i.e. the day Copenhagen ends. Then the Senate should sit again on the 21st to pass the damn thing.

    That would be AFTER COPENHAGEN. If the Liberals block it then, then they will be seen as liars AGAIN for saying they wanted to delay until after Copenhagen, when they were really going to vote it down all along.

  12. I’ve no doubt that Turnbull will try to explain to Hockey his insight into the fact that they really are about blocking at any cost. I have a feeling that even MT himself only came to terms with that relatively recently.

  15. LOL! I love this hilarious bit:
    [Another said Mr Turnbull’s “confrontational” attitude had gone too far and that many moderates would not hesitate to back Mr Hockey. “The biggest single block in the Liberal Party today is the people who don’t want Tony Abbott to be leader,” the MP said. “I think most people would prefer to have the chance to vote for Joe Hockey.”]
    Even Turnbull in his darkest hour is more popular than Abbott.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/joe-hockey-set-to-take-on-malcolm-turnbull/story-e6frg6n6-1225805155171

  16. [Cuppa.. they deserve a 59/41 but I’d be very happy with 57.]
    57 on election day would be about 105 House seats and probably half the Senate.

  18. ShowsOn

    Imagine this. Joe chatting to Kev, about his being sold down the river.

    Joe could do worse than seek a little solid advice, from his old companion.

  19. ShowsOn, you’re quite right. And I think Penny might just be pissed off enough to do that. Its after Copenhagen, so fscking sign it!

  20. [I just hope Hockey has the intellect to truly comprehend the sheer religiosity of the denialists.]
    He should realise that the deniers will only be convinced they are wrong when one of them loses an election, most probably in a massive land slide.

  21. [Another said Mr Turnbull’s “confrontational” attitude had gone too far and that many moderates would not hesitate to back Mr Hockey.]

    So they ‘might’ just settle for Turnbull’s scalp but pass the ETS. The best result for Rudd.

  22. ShowsOn, an election defeat will only prove to them that the electorate were wrong. Witness the attitude already where they think the voters must be deluded and they’ll get over it.

  23. [Joe could do worse than seek a little solid advice, from his old companion.]

    He saved kev from that river in kokoda so yeah kev should save joe from the river styx

    “dont pay the ferryman joe”

  24. [57 on election day would be about 105 House seats and probably half the Senate.]

    Crap. For Labor to get half the Senate in a DD they’d need about 50% of the vote, which would be approx 10% swing.

    The Greens (who have risen to new heights yet again) will continue to deprive Labor a chunk of the left vote.

  25. Yes.. it all hinges off whether its the leadership or the ideology..

    On the one hand you could end up with the denialists + conservatives vs the rest. On the other hand you could end up with the denialists + a few conservatives vs the rest. And the line will fall depending on who realises how unsafe their seat is.

  27. [Advice, I said. Gusface]

    sorry Crikey

    I meant joe should not sell his soul just to get to his objective.That to me would be the best advice one friend could give to another

  28. The only way for peace within the COALition is to get rid of Turnbull. If he won then there is no way the likes of Tuckey and Minchin will roll over and play nice – the guerilla warfare would go on.

    The Liberals cannot win the next election. With this in mind, the leadership should at least accept the will of the Liberal grassroots and block the ETS. If you can’t have government then you may as well please the base.

  29. “I am told that the management of Santos see a Labor / Liberal negotiated ETS as a much better prospect than a Labor / Green ETS that they fear would ramp up deep cuts faster than that could improve their extraction methods to reduce emissions, thus meaning they would need to buy more permits, and couldn’t sell their free permits to fund investment.”

    That is a really interesting comment. I think that the corporate interests in Australia (that probably provide a lot of the Libs funding) will be serioulsy annoyed at the Libs refusing to pass the ETS thats on the table at the moment. It is likely the best deal that corporate Australia is EVER going to get on a CPRS and the Libs are throwing it away.

    For what? Their base doesnt want it? The part of their base that is opposed to this is by definition a minority of the electorate at the moment.

    Even if its a significant proportion of the 43% that say they will vote for the Libs, its not that base that will get them back into Govt. When are they going to realize that they actually NEED to get some of the 57% that say they will vote for the ALP to change their minds??

    And what will they do for funding if thier usual sources dry up. Dont think MT will be interested in making large donations to the party any time in the near future.

  30. [With this in mind, the leadership should at least accept the will of the Liberal grassroots and block the ETS.]
    I don’t agree that the party should do what its member’s say, especially when the members are wrong.

  32. But that’s not the will of the Liberal grass roots dude.

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/most-coalition-voters-back-ets-newspoll-20091128-jxbs.html

    “According to the analysis, support for the government’s emissions trading scheme legislation is overwhelming among Coalition voters in metropolitan areas. Newspoll shows that 63 per cent of Coalition voters in the cities believe the government’s bill should be passed, while only 28 per cent think it should be opposed.”

    The so called tide of grass roots support is actually a relatively small group of frankly small minded individuals whipped up into hysteria by some pretty nasty pieces of work in the media.

    There’s lots of people who don’t pretend to understand climate science, and lots that have been confused by the science-vandals, but the overwhelmingly majority of people do want action on climate change and do not want the ETS blocked.

  33. Certainly, Gusface. And accepted.

    Sadly, I think, Joe may indeed may be conjured into selling his soul.

    Persuaded by the devils.

    I do not think that Joe had in mind to be Leader at this moment, and now or perhaps never a PM.

    A columnist wrote that for the first time ever, it was observed that a priest, Bible in hand, was walking from Senator to Senator offices.

  36. [A columnist wrote that for the first time ever, it was observed that a priest, Bible in hand, was walking from Senator to Senator offices.]

    My blood ran cold as I read that.

  37. Wanting action on CC and wanting the ETS passed is a contradiction. We need the West to cut CO2 by 40% (or probably more) by 2020 to prevent irreversable CC. Not only will passing the ETS not be a step in the right direction but it will actually make that impossible. With the ETS we can do no better than 25%, a 40% cut will be impossible. With no ETS there is still hope, still a chance that the government will take a science based approach to CC policy – the ALP seeks compromise between union and boss but there can be no compromise with Mother Nature. If we only do half of what we demands then billions of people will still die.

  40. Heysen, as much as I’d love an ideal world where everyone thought like the Greens, the ETS as it stands now is a complex beast with a lot of levers. There is nothing stopping a future government cranking up the targets, or achieving a real reduction by other means.

    I agree we need to go much further than 25% if at all technologically possible. I also think we should all go vegan. Try winning an election on that one.. sigh.

  41. [Wanting action on CC and wanting the ETS passed is a contradiction. We need the West to cut CO2 by 40% (or probably more) by 2020 to prevent irreversable CC. Not only will passing the ETS not be a step in the right direction but it will actually make that impossible. With the ETS we can do no better than 25%, a 40% cut will be impossible. With no ETS there is still hope, still a chance that the government will take a science based approach to CC policy – the ALP seeks compromise between union and boss but there can be no compromise with Mother Nature. If we only do half of what we demands then billions of people will still die.]

    No doubt the voters of Willagee took this into account when Hsien Harper was campaigning ? 🙂

  42. Geez.. typical flapping Australian. The put the 57/43 bit down the bottom of the page.
    And they BS about MT’s leadership being at fault. Its not leadership its ideology driven by pig-ignorance. The real story is people are angry with the LP for welching on a deal. Waste of perfectly good trees. May the paper die an ignominious death.

  43. Heysen, we can either do nothing, or what is politically possible. No, i dont think that the targets in the current ETS are good enough, but those targets can be raised (and i think they will be) in the future.

    Its going to take political action to tackle climate change and i think that whats on the table now is whats possible to do now in Australia with the parliament that we currently have. But hey, given the bullsh^t going on in the Senate and the Libs at the moment, maybe its a step too far for some of the trogs that were voted in!

  44. Yeah, I think I mentioned, Gusface, that all the contenders are Catholics.

    Which is amazing, in itself.

    And includes Turnbull, to my great surprise.

    Now, there is no reason to think this is a sinister plot, but how is it that the Libs have so numerous a Catholic representation?

    In my small sphere of the world, we Catholics are primarily Labour orientated.

  47. From the Nielsen poll.

    This an interesting comment on the voting public and the ETS.

    Two thirds support the ETS, including 52% of COALition voters.
    Note this:
    ” The poll finds 45 per cent of voters believe it will have a negative effect on the economy but 22 per cent believe it will have a positive effect.”

    So most people believe it will have costs to the economy but support it anyway.

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