Hard to say what to make of a poll conducted last weekend in the present fluid circumstances, but the latest Morgan face-to-face poll suggests the Oceanic Viking issue was washing out of the system even before the Liberal Party went into its present meltdown. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 48 per cent while the Coalition is down one to 35.5 per cent. The Greens are steady on 9 per cent; most of the balance comes from Family First, which has corrected from 3 per cent to 1.5 per cent after an aberrant result last week. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 56.5-43.5 to 58.5-41.5. Elsewhere:
• Antony Green’s blog has been a hive of activity recently. Of particular interest is his latest post, in which he departs his comfort zone to assert we can expect a by-election in Wentworth if the Liberal leadership saga plays out as presently expected. Also featured is an epic account of the bureaucratic nightmare involved in the enrolment of young voters, apropos the NSW government’s plans to introduce automatic enrolment.
• Peter Kennedy of the ABC reports the resurgent WA Nationals have chosen John McCourt to head their Senate ticket. The party made a big fanfare of its Senate hopes at its state conference earlier this year, promising a campaign heavily funded by unpleasant Queensland mining billionaire Clive Palmer.
• The Advertiser tells us it has seen internal party polling (we are not told which party’s) which shows the Liberals were building a head of steam even before the past week’s unpleasantness. The Liberal primary vote across selected marginal seats (again we are not told which ones, which makes the figures hard to read) is said to have been 39 per cent to Labor’s 31 per cent (the undecided were presumably not distributed), with the Liberals leading 52-48 on two-party preferred.
• Jeff Whalley of the Geelong Advertiser reports Kurt Reiter, managing director of IT consultancy Digital Quay, has been preselected to run against Labor’s Lisa Neville in the state seat of Bellarine.
• Nino Bucci of the Bendigo Advertiser reports Anita Donlon, founder of the “Independent Musos Network” (can’t say I’ve met too many Liberal-voting “independent musos” in my time), and Michael Langdon, former Australian Technical college principal, are jockeying for Liberal preselection in Bendigo West and Bendigo East respectively. An announcement will be made next week.
• Western Australia’s Willagee state by-election, held to replace former Premier Alan Carpenter, will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding that these are not the happiest of times for state Labor, their candidate Peter Tinley should have no trouble seeing off a Green, an ex-Green independent and the Christian Democratic Party. I don’t think it would be too much of a stretch to say the most interesting thing about the by-election has been the Poll Bludger comments thread. Those wishing to discuss the by-election are invited to do so there; live coverage will as always be available here from the close of polling booths tomorrow.
The gas isn’t just in the coalmines!
The punters are getting on Joe.
[The odds for Mr Hockey, the opposition’s treasury spokesman, have shortened to just $1.80, while odds for Tony Abbott – who resigned his frontbench position on Thursday – shortened to $2.75, according to bookie Sportingbet Australia.
Embattled Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull’s odds have sagged to $3.50, “a devastating judgment by punters that is sure to compound his current woes,” Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said.]
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/punters-throw-their-money-behind-hockey-20091127-jw13.html
[ don’t think it would be too much of a stretch to say the most interesting thing about the by-election has been the Poll Bludger comments thread.]
The cagematch version would have been way cooler
😉
Wong should call a division already! Smoke the Liberals out and see if they will vote for the government amendments.
OMG! Surely not even Fielding … ‘Fees that you made it up boerwar #4196 (previous thread). Or has Senator F defected to Scientology with a plan to flog greenhouses to Vader’s invading spaceships ?
[Liberals are now expecting Mr Hockey to take over the leadership by offering an olive branch to supporters and agreeing to delay a vote by sending the emissions trading scheme amendments to a Senate committee.]
What chances “now”of the bill geting passed by 3.45 today?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-denies-being-asked-to-step-down-by-julie-bishop/story-e6frgczf-1225804570331
Boswell about to tell us that the tide also rises and then falls
PS: That’s greenhouse gases, tho with him, who’d know
Shows
Right now the rules in the senate are the same as those for a trial lawyer. Don’t ask any question you don’t already know the answer to.
Wong will make the call at 3.45 as agreed. Not before.
C’mon what way are libs going to go?
[Wong should call a division already! Smoke the Liberals out and see if they will vote for the government amendments.]
45 minutes, Shows! 😉
[C’mon what way are libs going to go?]
Everywhere.
Here you go Gus, knock yourself out:
http://abcdigmusic.net.au/artist/machinations#
All in good time. We have an agreement and we are sticking to it to the letter. We’ll see what happens at 3.45.
And nowhere.
btw: Wong means either yellow or the King. I think we know which one our Penn is.
Scorpio, the vote can only be delayed if a motion to that effect is accepted by the President and passed.
Pity TheOz didn’t google the rules/ Standing orders
Hi All,
Very entertaining. Thanks for the commentary.
Odds for Hockey now $1.33, Abbot $4, Turnbull $5 at Sportingbet.
[Boswell about to tell us that the tide also rises and then falls]
It does when he goes in the water, and then comes out.
[C’mon what way are libs going to go?]
Dey goin down!
OzPol
Yes, Fielding actually said ‘wasting greenhouse gases’.
[C’mon what way are libs going to go?]
It looks very much that Abbott has a little trouble with numbers or has been told that he is electoral poison and has offered a deal to install Skrek with the proviso that “all” Lib Senators vote to hold the ETS bill over and not have some, vote on it to let it through!
[Senior Liberal frontbencher Tony Abbott appears to be offering an olive branch to Joe Hockey’s leadership tilt this morning amid reports he could be installed as opposition treasury spokesman.
The Liberal frontbencher said today he accepted the next leader may not be him but predicted the policy of the Liberals will change. He predicted it would do so on Monday.
“Hopefully a leader who has changed the policy and reunited the party,” he said.
“I accept as far as the public is concerned I can be a divisive figure.”]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-denies-being-asked-to-step-down-by-julie-bishop/story-e6frgczf-1225804570331
Speers is saying there won’t be a vote until monday or Tuesday or after Christmas even!
Forgot to include this bit!
[Liberals are now expecting Mr Hockey to take over the leadership by offering an olive branch to supporters and agreeing to delay a vote by sending the emissions trading scheme amendments to a Senate committee.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-denies-being-asked-to-step-down-by-julie-bishop/story-e6frgczf-1225804570331
A vote on what exactly?
Speers is saying there won’t be a vote until monday or Tuesday or after Christmas even!
Well, that settles it then.
It only requires one Lib Senator to vote with the Govt, Greens and X for the bill to go to a vote.
That would kill the send it to a comittee crud.
[Speers is saying there won’t be a vote until monday or Tuesday or after Christmas even!]
wRONg no: 11 for Speers?
35 minutes!
To be consistent, the Greens would want to get it into committee would not they? If that triggers a DD they would be happy with that as well.
[Speers is saying there won’t be a vote until monday or Tuesday or after Christmas even!]
I hope he’s wrong.
The Government should bring parliament back the day after the Copenhagen summit ends and get the opposition to vote for the bills again.
If they oppose it then, that would be another broken promise.
It only requires one Lib Senator to vote with the Govt
Don’t let us down Troeth.
35 times 60 seconds equals only 2100 eternities to go.
[Speers is saying there won’t be a vote until monday or Tuesday or after Christmas even!]
That means the vote will be in half an hour for sure
[To be consistent, the Greens would want to get it into committee would not they? If that triggers a DD they would be happy with that as well.]
The Greens and X have said they want a vote – not a delay.
McDonald likes the amendments, so he’s now in favour of the bill?
Can anyone follow what he’s saying?
this is edge of your seat stuff…..I wish I was at home…and not with the constant interuptions of work
Mc Donald heading towards a motion to hold of the amendments to the Committee process!
30 minutes left!
This bill passing or not now comes down to Joe Hockey keeping his ambition in his pants. If his ego is big enough that he thinks he can make anything of the Liberal leadership under the current circumstances then he will make the deal with Abbott and become leader on the ‘compromise’ position of delaying the vote till after Copenhagen. At which time we can do this all again.
If he is sensible enough to know that his only genuine chance of ever forming government is to hold off and take the leadership after the next election he will hold his ground, let the CPRS legislation pass and take the leadership later.
Do we think his common sense is strong enough to trump his ego?
This goose in the senate banging on admits he hasn’t even read the bills.
Got to be a better method of getting legislation through.
Now they want to double check their own amendments?
[McDonald likes the amendments, so he’s now in favour of the bill?]
No, he wants a Committee to evaluate the amendments!
rua
thanks.
Wong: “Welching on an agreement.” That doesn’t sound promising for the legislation.
OHOH. Penny says the Libs are welchers. Some silence for a change from the welcher’s side of the Senate.
[Do we think his common sense is strong enough to trump his ego?]
I think the deal has already been done.
There will be no vote on the bill today!
Wong just confirming that now!
The Libs have squibbed on the deal!
Speers was only speculating. Skynews is now showing the Senate session LIVE. If there will be no vote, i dont think Skynews would show it LIVE.
[[If he is sensible enough to know that his only genuine chance of ever forming government is to hold off and take the leadership after the next election he will hold his ground, let the CPRS legislation pass and take the leadership later.]
Excellent point.
If the Liberal moderates want a sensible / middle of the road ETS, then this is the time to get it.
I just can’t fathom that the Liberals will commit suicide like this, wait for a D.D. election and then pass the exact same CPRS that they have just had a hernia over.
After watching senate question time this week, I have a lot of sympathy for Barack Obama trying to get healthcare reform through, let alone the Waxman-Markey bill. Our politicians really are much too germane in comparison!
I think Penny has it right! Not Sky News! No vote today!