Morgan: 58.5-41.5

Hard to say what to make of a poll conducted last weekend in the present fluid circumstances, but the latest Morgan face-to-face poll suggests the Oceanic Viking issue was washing out of the system even before the Liberal Party went into its present meltdown. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 48 per cent while the Coalition is down one to 35.5 per cent. The Greens are steady on 9 per cent; most of the balance comes from Family First, which has corrected from 3 per cent to 1.5 per cent after an aberrant result last week. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 56.5-43.5 to 58.5-41.5. Elsewhere:

• Antony Green’s blog has been a hive of activity recently. Of particular interest is his latest post, in which he departs his comfort zone to assert we can expect a by-election in Wentworth if the Liberal leadership saga plays out as presently expected. Also featured is an epic account of the bureaucratic nightmare involved in the enrolment of young voters, apropos the NSW government’s plans to introduce automatic enrolment.

• Peter Kennedy of the ABC reports the resurgent WA Nationals have chosen John McCourt to head their Senate ticket. The party made a big fanfare of its Senate hopes at its state conference earlier this year, promising a campaign heavily funded by unpleasant Queensland mining billionaire Clive Palmer.

• The Advertiser tells us it has seen internal party polling (we are not told which party’s) which shows the Liberals were building a head of steam even before the past week’s unpleasantness. The Liberal primary vote across selected marginal seats (again we are not told which ones, which makes the figures hard to read) is said to have been 39 per cent to Labor’s 31 per cent (the undecided were presumably not distributed), with the Liberals leading 52-48 on two-party preferred.

• Jeff Whalley of the Geelong Advertiser reports Kurt Reiter, managing director of IT consultancy Digital Quay, has been preselected to run against Labor’s Lisa Neville in the state seat of Bellarine.

• Nino Bucci of the Bendigo Advertiser reports Anita Donlon, founder of the “Independent Musos Network” (can’t say I’ve met too many Liberal-voting “independent musos” in my time), and Michael Langdon, former Australian Technical college principal, are jockeying for Liberal preselection in Bendigo West and Bendigo East respectively. An announcement will be made next week.

• Western Australia’s Willagee state by-election, held to replace former Premier Alan Carpenter, will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding that these are not the happiest of times for state Labor, their candidate Peter Tinley should have no trouble seeing off a Green, an ex-Green independent and the Christian Democratic Party. I don’t think it would be too much of a stretch to say the most interesting thing about the by-election has been the Poll Bludger comments thread. Those wishing to discuss the by-election are invited to do so there; live coverage will as always be available here from the close of polling booths tomorrow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,749 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

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  2. [Nothing up my sleeve.

    Just quoting their words back at them. Hurts every time.]

    Phew

    For a moment there I thought you were going to say they were a fair dinkum political party,willing to resolve, through negotiation, the problems that afflict us all.

    Thanks for the clarification

  3. [That the Liberals are in a shambles over a single issue demonstrates just what poor intellectual shape the party is in, with no unifying political philosophy. While in government, the party coasted, relying on the mythical Howard factor to keep them in power. But Mr Howard’s success was more to do with Labor ineptitude and luck than popular support for his program. He lost the 1998 election on the popular vote. He was elected in 2001 just after September 11 and in 2004 Mark Latham led Labor to deserved defeat. Mr Howard lost the first election when he faced a disciplined Labor Party with coherent policies.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/liberals-in-red-hot-trouble-on-climate/story-e6frg71x-1225804745883

    That’s not fair. Keating Labor was reasonable disciplined and had coherent (not to mention good) policies.

  5. [That’s not fair. Keating Labor was reasonable disciplined and had coherent (not to mention good) policies.]
    Which of these policies are you referring to? Selling Commonwealth Bank? Selling QANTAS? Selling the Commonwealth Serum Laboratories? Enterprise Bargaining?

  6. The last Newspoll prior to the 06 SA election had Labor on 56% and they got 56.8% – final Centrebet odds were $13 for the Libs and $1.01 for Labor. If a federal election were held today, would these be the likely odds give or take?

  7. [Which of these policies are you referring to? Selling Commonwealth Bank? Selling QANTAS? Selling the Commonwealth Serum Laboratories? Enterprise Bargaining?]

    I don’t particularly agree in selling off assets, no.

    I like enterprise bargaining.

    But you’ve only mentioned a bit of Keating economics, and none of Keating’s social program.

  9. This shows the shallow level of thinking of the mad monk!

    He’d rather see the Liberal Party eat itself from the inside, than see Kevin Rudd get a bit of kudos on behalf of the country in Copenhagen!

    Quite a price to pay! Kevvie probably wouldn’t improve his PPM levels anyway but there is a good chance he might gain a bit if Turnbull is replaced!

    [Mr Abbott says the leadership turmoil is all about the Government’s emission trading scheme, which will face the Senate again tomorrow.

    “The end game is to change the policy,” he said.

    “It looks like that means changing the leader. I regret that, but if that’s what it takes, that’s what I want to try to do.

    “Why should the Liberal Party give up the job of being an effective Opposition just so that Kevin Rudd has a trophy to take to Copenhagen?

    “What I’ve said all along is that what we need to do is change the policy and then we need to heal the party.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/29/2756620.htm?section=justin

  10. Bernard Keane on Twitter

    [With Dutton, it’s like staring at a Magic Eye picture and NEVER seeing the hidden 3D image everyone oohs and aahs about.]

    LOL

  11. I agree they need to find Dutton a safer seat! Being Deputy Liberal Leader and representing a nominally Labor seat isn’t a good look!
    I suppose Alex Somelay’s health is about to get a whole lot worse in the next week! 😉

  12. That would seem to prove that its not about the leader, its about the ideology of climate change denialism. If so Hockey could never get voted for unless he also went on a platform of stalling the Bill and also pretending that climate change isn’t happening. If so, Turnbull will run against him.

    In a race between Turnbull and Hockey where the real issue is climate denialism, not the leadership, even the conservatives (the non denialists) will have to sit up and pay attention to the polling. It will end up being a matter of what they individually think about their own seat.

    I just don’t think its at all certain that the loonies are going to win.

  13. Mind you, coming from Abbott, do you believe he was a closet denialist to start with, or do you believe he thinks that pushing the Liberal Party to the hard right is going to suit his own medieval social ideology?

  18. [That would seem to prove that its not about the leader, its about the ideology of climate change denialism. If so Hockey could never get voted for]
    And just think about how Labor will attack the Liberals during the election campaign. They will say that Hockey is a nice guy but the people that control his party can’t be trusted, and they won’t allow him to have his way on issues that he feels strongly about. (Just look what they did to Turnbull).

  19. [ NewcastleBoy

    @godwingrech Godwin Grech for new Liberal Opposition Leader – give the man a sterling change peeps 🙂 38 minutes ago from web in reply to godwingrech Retweeted by godwingrech ]

  20. [I think the newspoll time has been and gone. We might have to wait till tomorrow night.]

    Don’t give up yet! Sometimes it is later on Sunday nights and a covering story has to be written!

  23. And we’ve never seen Rudd in budgie smugglers either! Do we want to see that?
    Hawkie wasn’t embarrassed about stripping down for the cameras. 😉

  24. I’m watching this really old documentary on Family First’s 2004 Federal Election campaign. They had a scene of the #1 Senate candidates from each state (of course including Fielding) debating what the party’s policy should be on the apology to the Stolen Generations. Most of them said that the party SHOULDN’T support an apology. The party director said that they SHOULD support the apology so that they don’t get branded as right wing wackos. So he decided that for the sake of party unity the party would have no official position on the issue because everyone else in the room disagreed with him!

  25. As a cultural Catholic, I am amazed that the Fab Four are of similar persuasion.

    I had no idea that Malcolm, too, is a Catholic.

  26. So what will Turnbull do when he resigns
    a) resign to the back bench
    b) resign from politics- hence byelection
    c) move to the cross benches as an independent with Katter, oakshot and crew
    d) Join the ALP

    I would love c) or d) but alas I think it will be a) or b)…….Is there an e) i haven’t thought of?

  28. [The obvious question to ask Hockey:
    How does it feel being Nick Minchin’s puppet?]
    Yeah Rudd should hold a press conference:
    [I congratulate Mr Hockey on becoming opposition leader. I look forward to cooperating with Senator Minchin to determine what Liberal party policy is.]

  30. Its the Newspoll data about support for action on climate change that I want to see. And how it shows that stalling the ETS is electoral suicide at least in the cities.

  31. [Hawkie wasn’t embarrassed about stripping down for the cameras. ;)]

    But he had to think about “England” and not “Blanche” every time! 😉

  32. or e) becomes MD of the rain making coorporation, breaks the drought, becomes a hero retakes the leadership of the coalition and wins the election 2018 (and secures the world cup)

  33. Rudd should be more careful.

    Julia is doing a more than excellent job, in his frequent absences.

    Not beyond the bounds that a scenario similar may take place.

    But Julia has the guts Costello never had.

  34. It shows how beholden Hockey is to his masters from the loony right that he’s forced to make Abbott Shadow Treasurer – imagine the fun Swan will have with the Mad Monk! 😉

  39. Hockey will say that the party will not rule out an ETS. The Liberal Party policy will officially be that they want to know what the major polluters will do about CC before committing to the CPRS.

    Three positions to be taken to the electorate on CC. The Greens are going to be granted their wish. Oh boy, are they going to be granted their wish. 🙂

  42. LOL! This Family First documentary is hilarious. It has some great footage of Steve Fielding playing badminton and cricket with his kids, followed by him driving without a seat belt on as he complains about the two party system.

    The opening line of his campaign speech was:
    [It’s time for a change, It’s time to put families…FIRST]

  43. sireggo,

    Usually around 11 to 11.15 but I’m sure it has been around midnight on occasions on Sunday nights.

    It’s not exactly common on Sunday, usually Monday night!

  44. [If there is an early newpoll, would now be a good time to start looking at the OO?]

    It’s never a good time to start looking at the OO

  46. [Why is everyone so fixated on Newspoll? I thought PBers questioned Newspoll as the poll of choice when the 52-48 came out?]

    I agree, it’s lost its mantle IMO. My only interest in the next Newspoll is the undoubted effect it will have on the loony Libs.

  49. Yes the Liberal Party and Cathiolics not a good fit it seems – Nelson, Abbott and Turnbull. And now some far-right Catholics are leading the denialsist
    charge – even though their Pope and the Vatican are heading in the opposite direction –

    see for the Pope

    http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/benedict_xvi/messages/pont-messages/2009/documents/hf_ben-xvi_mes_20090924_summit-climat-change_en.html

    and for the Vatican’s “carbon neutral and solar policies”

    http://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/secretariat_state/2008/documents/rc_seg-st_20080212_climate-change_en.html

  50. It should read

    Steve Lewis says Hockey is running after being told to do so by Abbott and Costello, The Marx Bros, Jerry Lewis and Barnaby Joyce

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