Morgan: 58.5-41.5

Hard to say what to make of a poll conducted last weekend in the present fluid circumstances, but the latest Morgan face-to-face poll suggests the Oceanic Viking issue was washing out of the system even before the Liberal Party went into its present meltdown. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 48 per cent while the Coalition is down one to 35.5 per cent. The Greens are steady on 9 per cent; most of the balance comes from Family First, which has corrected from 3 per cent to 1.5 per cent after an aberrant result last week. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 56.5-43.5 to 58.5-41.5. Elsewhere:

• Antony Green’s blog has been a hive of activity recently. Of particular interest is his latest post, in which he departs his comfort zone to assert we can expect a by-election in Wentworth if the Liberal leadership saga plays out as presently expected. Also featured is an epic account of the bureaucratic nightmare involved in the enrolment of young voters, apropos the NSW government’s plans to introduce automatic enrolment.

• Peter Kennedy of the ABC reports the resurgent WA Nationals have chosen John McCourt to head their Senate ticket. The party made a big fanfare of its Senate hopes at its state conference earlier this year, promising a campaign heavily funded by unpleasant Queensland mining billionaire Clive Palmer.

• The Advertiser tells us it has seen internal party polling (we are not told which party’s) which shows the Liberals were building a head of steam even before the past week’s unpleasantness. The Liberal primary vote across selected marginal seats (again we are not told which ones, which makes the figures hard to read) is said to have been 39 per cent to Labor’s 31 per cent (the undecided were presumably not distributed), with the Liberals leading 52-48 on two-party preferred.

• Jeff Whalley of the Geelong Advertiser reports Kurt Reiter, managing director of IT consultancy Digital Quay, has been preselected to run against Labor’s Lisa Neville in the state seat of Bellarine.

• Nino Bucci of the Bendigo Advertiser reports Anita Donlon, founder of the “Independent Musos Network” (can’t say I’ve met too many Liberal-voting “independent musos” in my time), and Michael Langdon, former Australian Technical college principal, are jockeying for Liberal preselection in Bendigo West and Bendigo East respectively. An announcement will be made next week.

• Western Australia’s Willagee state by-election, held to replace former Premier Alan Carpenter, will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding that these are not the happiest of times for state Labor, their candidate Peter Tinley should have no trouble seeing off a Green, an ex-Green independent and the Christian Democratic Party. I don’t think it would be too much of a stretch to say the most interesting thing about the by-election has been the Poll Bludger comments thread. Those wishing to discuss the by-election are invited to do so there; live coverage will as always be available here from the close of polling booths tomorrow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,749 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

Comments Page 52 of 55
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  1. OK, let’s assume that after Copenhagen, the major countries, in particular the U.S/China/India, agree on significant emissions cuts! Will that be enough to get the Liberals on board, or will the loony right still argue that the science hasn’t been proved and there’s no evidence that mankind contributes to climate change?
    So if Hockey is going to argue that the Liberals haven’t changed their policy, was then is the point of dumping Turnball?
    Remember too that Hockey isn’t the favoured candidate of the radio shockjocks and the far right part of the Liberal base. I daresay they’ll initially jump on board because “Rudd’s Tax” is being shelved, but these people like Alan Jones owe Sloppy Joe no loyalty, and they’ll knife him after the 2010 landslide.

  2. Oh well, I didn’t predict the Liberal leader at the next election 😐

    But I predicted long ago that Turnbull was finished and that the ETS would not pass the Senate 🙂

  6. Any Conspiracy Theorists here able to decipher the meaning of Steve Price’s reference to a “trio” Who’s the father, the son, and the spirit then? 🙂

    [Hockey ready to step up

    * Steve Lewis
    * From: Herald Sun
    * November 30, 2009 12:00AM

    Hockey’s hour: A coalition of Liberals are encouraging Joe Hockey to run for his party’s leadership. Picture: Amos Aikman Source: Herald Sun

    JOE Hockey is expected to announce his leadership ambitions, after receiving the backing of Liberal elder statesmen John Howard and Peter Costello.

    Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership is all but finished after the trio urged the shadow treasurer to run for the top Liberal job.]

  7. In any event, it is nonsense to suggest that they, and we, pay no attention to polls.

    Newspoll, in particular.

    Pollbludgers hang on every question, phraseology, terminology.

    Analysing the minutest detail.

    In hundreds, if not thousands, of posts.

  9. [Surely the Queen SOMETIMES says things on her own accord?]

    Never. She’s a well-trained constitutional monarch. If she was given a speech saying the Earth was about to freeze solid, she’d read it out with equal diligence. I doubt she even pays attention to what she’s saying.

  10. I”m still sticking with my prediction that Turnball turns independent, takes Wentworth with him, and becomes the new best friend of Rudd & Albo, as millions are showered on Bondi and Rose Bay! 🙂

  11. [Any Conspiracy Theorists here able to decipher the meaning of Steve Price’s reference to a “trio” Who’s the father, the son, and the spirit then?]

    Gordon Grech! 😉

  13. Psephos: Her Majesty hated Margaret Thatcher!
    And Buckingham Palace has embraced fighting climate change, Queen Liz makes sure all the lights are turned off! 😉

  14. [I”m still sticking with my prediction that Turnball turns independent, takes Wentworth with him, and becomes the new best friend of Rudd & Albo, as millions are showered on Bondi and Rose Bay!]

    a) I doubt Rudd would favour certain electorates like the coalition did and got in shit for.

    b) He’d just be another Oakeshott-type independent… economic conservative social progressive.

  16. [Psephos: Her Majesty hated Margaret Thatcher!]

    That’s unsourced gossip. She’s never said any such thing on the record. She sent Thatcher a very nice personal letter when Dennis died.

  17. crikey whitey wrote

    [ Loved the Macbeth reference, someone earlier, perhaps Socrates.

    And Dave, some time back, your lyrical and apt take.

    Enjoyed hugely by the household.

    As Banjo fans. ]

    Thanks mate. I’m a Banjo man myself.

    I love the audio reading of Banjos work on CD by the late great Leonard Teale. Most of us learnt some of Banjos work at school etc but Leonards CD’s really brought it to life for me.

  18. Gus,
    But Hyacinth would never ever allow Johnny to invite the Hockeys over to the Lodge or Kirribili for dinner………………oh, sorry, that was the Costellos.

  19. [Surely the Queen SOMETIMES says things on her own accord?]
    [Never. She’s a well-trained constitutional monarch.]

    I think she mentioned something about an “Anus horibillus” some time back!

    I’m pretty sure she wrote that one! 😉

    She was probably thinking about Malcolm at the time!

  20. 2560

    I seem to remember that the Queen turns of lights in unused rooms and does other frugal things because of the need to conserve resources instilled in her during the Second World War.

  21. The Queen likes Kev, she had an extra big smile for him at CHOGM!
    I bet the Liberal idiots hated watching ABC NEWS tonight, our PM being feted by Gordon Brown, Sarkozy, Her Majesty etc.

  22. I gather the facts would be that Turnbull has the numbers over Abbott. But if Turnbull remains the Right will continue to destabilise the party until he is gone or the election well and truly lost, destroying a number of extra members in the process.

    The moderates in more marginal seats will be desperate to shut the Right up and find a compromise.

    The moderates have two bargaining chips, Turnbull and the ETS.

    1. The options are keep Turnbull and have the party wrecked from within, and no guarantee the Senate will behave on the ETS.

    2. Dump Turnbull on the agreement that the ETS is quickly put to bed.

    3. Dump Turnbull and block the ETS until after Copenhagen etc.

    Option 3 is the one that would do most damage and Hockey would be crazy to challenge Turnbull on this basis. The party loses credibility in a number of ways.

    Option 1 is the second most damaging.

    Option 2 is the best of the three. The moderates can offer up Turnbull in exchange for getting the ETS off the menu quick smart. And would be a fair swap.

    I gather also on Option 1 that Turnbull’s enemies may also turn up stuff on Grech/Turnbull or similar if it exists.

  24. Yes and she endorses Harpic Flushmatic and some brand of Tuna I can’t remember (it says on the label by appointment of her Majesty the Queen) I can just see he on her hands and knees cleaning the toilet and sitting down the a snack of canned tuna.

  26. 2545

    If we were two years into Rudd’s third term them it might just be on Gillard’s radar. Your about six years too early and Rudd will have left the job of his own accord by then. He’s got even bigger things to do than simply remain Australia’s PM.

  27. evan14,

    Pies, Bolt, PD & JA will be lining up at Chandlers for new TV’s in the morning!

    I heard they keep bricks beside their armchairs for special purposes like that! 😉

  28. [ But Hyacinth would never ever allow Johnny to invite the Hockeys over to the Lodge or Kirribili for dinner………………oh, sorry, that was the Costellos. ]

    I don’t know if going to lunch at Wollstonecraft counts, but driving around the block 2 or 3 times as the sloppy one did may. Boy does that look graet on his CV !

  30. Hockey will never overcome the perception that he was installed in the leadership by Minchin & his henchmen, in return for shelving the ETS(or sending it off to a senate committee, to remain in limbo forever). Joe can spout all he likes about his committment to fighting global warming and I daresay he and whoever is his environment spokesman will cobble together something that makes the Liberals look vaguely green, but I and many others will never forget that he sold out his principles and stabbed Turnball in the back, all for power!

  32. @2569.. the problem with option 2 is that while the moderates might go for the option to dump Turnbull but pass the ETS, who are they going to vote for? Hockey?

    Only if Hockey goes in on a platform to pass the ETS.

    But then the nutjobs will treat Hockey as if he were Turnbull. Repeat of option 1.

  33. [I don’t know if going to lunch at Wollstonecraft counts, but driving around the block 2 or 3 times as the sloppy one did may. Boy does that look graet on his CV !]

    He had to give Johnnie time to finish the washing up and tidy the lounge room!

    Hyacinth always insists on keeping up appearances! 😉

  36. Will the Liberals send someone to Copenhagen, as they’re so concerned about the outcome? Once they turf out Turnball and Chainsaw, will there be any climate change believers left on the front bench?

  37. It only works of course if they all are happy having Turnbull’s head and willing to shut up and save a few seats. At least Hockey is one of them. None of the options are any good, the best is the least damaging one.

    But if they are in the all or nothing mode of thinking then it will be the worst of all worlds for them.

    Hockey with still living ETS will be the worst outcome.

  38. Some people are still so foolish as to believe that the idea of putting it off until Copenhagen isn’t the tactic it really is.

  41. [LOL! Dolly Downer has a punt every which way. The Liberals should stick with Turnbull, but not vote on the CPRS until after Copenhagen]

    Why is that contradictory? A Liberal MP can vote for Turnbull but not for the current CPRS right here right now…

  43. [He had to give Johnnie time to finish the washing up and tidy the lounge room!

    Hyacinth always insists on keeping up appearances!]

    I noticed how joe seemed to be scurrying away, perhaps johnny had been grounded for losing the election and HIS seat.

    Hyacinth is still not amused

    😉

  44. P.D. pipes up:
    [HERE’S how bitter the divisions within the Liberal Party over Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership and the Emissions Trading Scheme have become.

    On Friday, walking the corridors of the Parliament, I visited a Liberal Senator who was a former supporter of Turnbull but had seen the writing on the wall and was now backing Joe Hockey.

    I asked him what he thought of Senate leader Nick Minchin’s role in helping bring down Turnbull.

    Minchin, he said, had committed “one of the biggest acts of bastardry in the Liberal Party’s history”.

    Two floors down and 10 minutes later, I asked another Turnbull supporter what he thought of Andrew Robb’s role in the same context.

    Robb, he declared in almost identical terms, would go down in Liberal history as “a treacherous bastard”.]
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/trio-who-came-to-bury-their-leader/story-e6frezz0-1225804886583

  45. And of course that loathsome Sophie Mirabella and that “intellectual giant” Cory Bernadi will be back on the front bench!
    Hockey will be told too to promote Dennis Jensen: prediction! 😉

  46. [Why is that contradictory? A Liberal MP can vote for Turnbull but not for the current CPRS right here right now…]
    Because TURNBULL’S POSITION IS TO PASS THE CPRS ASAP!

    As he said on Today this morning “Delay is denial.”

  50. [Because TURNBULL’S POSITION IS TO PASS THE CPRS ASAP!

    As he said on Today this morning “Delay is denial.”]

    Your point? It is the right of every Liberal MP to vote how they want. It might not be a good position to be in, but it’s not a contradictory position to be in.

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