Redraw redrawn

The federal redistribution of New South Wales has been completed, with a final determination that turns up fewer surprises than the recent effort in Queensland. Antony Green has as always given the new boundaries the once-over; all margins quoted herein are as calculated by him.

• The commissioners have responded to widespread criticism of the original proposal to put the electorate name of Reid out of commission, the general feeling being that Australia’s fourth prime minister deserved better. It has been decided that instead of changing the name of its eastern neighbour Lowe to McMahon (which under the redistribution takes in 32 per cent of the voters from abolished Reid), it will instead change to Reid and the new name of McMahon will be given to Prospect, located further to the west.

• To maintain continuity with local government boundaries, the frequently redrawn Calare will recover the western shires of Parkes and Forbes it was to lose to Parkes, and lose the areas of Wellington Shire Council (including Mumbi and Neurea) and Mid-Western Regional Council (Mudgee and Gulgong) it was to gain from it. This is great news for Calare’s National Party member John Cobb, whose margin is now cut from 12.1 per cent to 3.5 per cent rather than the originally proposed 1.2 per cent.

• The vast interior electorate of Farrer, which was originally to remain unchanged, will now absorb a part of the Shire of Central Darling including Wilcannia from Parkes, with no impact on its margin. Parkes in turn will gain the balance of the Shire of Parkes around Lake Cargelligo from its southern neighbour Riverina.

• A transfer of 1100 voters in the north-eastern part of the Shire of Tenterfield from New England to Page has been reversed. This has been counter-balanced by the transfer of the Shire of Lachlan from New England to its western neigbour Parkes. The collective changes to Parkes cut the Nationals margin from 13.8 per cent to 13.6 per cent.

• A transfer from Hume to Throsby south of Sydney has been slightly clipped so the town of Bundanoon remains in Hume. Hume also has its gain from Macarthur further to the north expanded to bring the boundary into alignment with the Nepean River and Sickles Creek, adding Theresa Park, Orangeville and Brownlow Hill in Sydney’s outskirts. None of the margins are affected.

• A transfer around Duckenfield on the west-east boundary between Newcastle and Paterson has been reversed, returning that area to Newcastle, which has further gained the adjacent area of Millers Forest.

• There have been minor adjustments to boundaries betweeen Cunningham and Macarthur, which have been tidied with elimination of a salient that formerly extended into Macarthur at Darkes Forest; Grayndler and what will now be called Reid, the latter of which gains a few blocks of territory to keep Croydon within one electorate; Bennelong and Berowra, where a proposed transfer of 1900 voters in Beecroft from the former to the latter has been reversed; and to the new boundary between Blaxland and Parramatta (in territory previously covered by Reid), adding three blocks of territory to the former at Granville.

• Other adjustments are more incidental still: a transfer of the unpopulated Spring Hill industrial area north of Port Kembla from Throsby to Cunningham has been reversed; Hughes’s boundary with Cook and Cunningham has been altered to follow the Illawarra Railway rather than nearby roads; and the boundary between Mitchell and Parramatta will now follow North Rocks Road rather than nearby Darling Mills Creek.

Other news:

• According to the ABC, the decision to maintain the name Reid increases the likelihood that its nominal member, Laurie Ferguson, will seek to continue his political career through a preselection challenge against John Murphy, the member for what is currently called Lowe. Ferguson is demanding that the matter be determined by a local ballot rather than the state or national executive processes which tend to prevail in contentious circumstances.

• Thwarted in McPherson, Liberal MP Peter Dutton now confirms he will attempt to retain Dickson, which he earlier swore he wouldn’t do.

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports “sources across all factions” agree that Macarthur MP Pat Farmer is certain to lose Liberal preselection at next Thursday’s ballot to former Campbelltown mayor Russell Matheson. It is further said by Salusinszky’s sources that Farmer, who dumped a bucket on his own constituents on election night and has since moved far away from them to the expensive north shore suburb of Mosman, is only running to be eligible for parliamentary superannuation granted to those who serve three terms followed by “involuntary departure”. Soraiya Gharahkhani of the Camden Advertiser reports Labor’s preselection for the seat looms as a four-way contest between Nick Bleasdale (local carpenter and narrowly unsuccessful candidate from 2007), Greg Warren (the deputy mayor of Camden), Michael Freelander (a Campbelltown pediatrician) and Paul Nunnari (a wheelchair athlete). Ben Raue at The Tally Room offers an informed overview of the local political situation. The redistribution has turned the seat from 0.7 per cent Liberal to 0.1 per cent Labor.

The Courier Mail says the Liberal preselection for new Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright will be “a five-way affair” involving Cameron Thompson, who lost Blair to Labor’s Shayne Neumann in 2007; Hajnal Ban, Logan City councillor and Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007; and Bob La Castra, Gold Coast councillor and former presenter of the 1980s children’s television show Wombat.

Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the New South Wales Liberal Party is “talking about recruiting everyone from the former ABC broadcaster Sally Loane to the former right-hand man to John Howard, Arthur Sinodinos”. Loane’s services are reportedly sought in Coogee, while Sinodinos might replace the outgoing Peter Debnam in Vaucluse. Conservative Sydney Morning Herald columnist Miranda Devine is apparently not interested.

• Former NRL player Hazem El Masri has also reportedly been approached by the Liberal Party to stand in the ultra-safe Labor seat of Lakemba. However, Andrew Clennell in the Herald relates that “Liberal sources said yesterday they believed Mr El Masri would not agree to stand for Parliament”. Labor is also said to have its sights on El Masri, with earlier conjecture he might succeed Tony Stewart in Bankstown.

• The Progress Leader reports Graham Watt, the owner of a local carpet cleaning business, has been preselected as the Liberal candidate for Jeff Kennett’s old seat of Burwood, currently held by Labor’s Bob Stensholt on a margin of 3.7 per cent. Watt reportedly received 70 votes against 45 for former Hawthorn AFL player Steve Lawrence (who was given a reference by Kennett) and five for David Solly, IT manager and one-time Nationals member.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

811 comments on “Redraw redrawn”

Comments Page 16 of 17
1 15 16 17
  1. I’ll join the 85% and the dying with dignity stuff – but it won’t happen until enough of the baby boomers come along and help to change things. They’ll have more voice than my lot just above them.

  2. [I wonder if the ETS is so confusing because Rudd hasn’t gone the Howard line and had a huge advertising campaign. ]

    Rudd did spend millions advertising the CPRS. However, research conducted afterwards showed it confused more people than it informed.

  3. Psephos

    [Rudd is giving the people exactly what they want – competent, honest, moderate government and cound policies.]

    Not on the ETS issue. 16% is an abysmal failure.


    All that good work by the scientists and environmentalists has borne beautiful fruit. 😛

  4. Media Watch just blew News Limited out of the water on the cost to Australian tax payers of people who have been granted permanent stay. Seems they played fast and lose with figures supplied by Centrelink. They specifically said how bad things have become since kevin Rudd became PM.

  5. Dio – So that’s what happens when you don’t buy newspapers or have free to air telly?

    I don’t remember seeing any of it. Must have been having some of my senior moments!!

  6. Antony,

    The response that they “stand by their story” came from News Limited, as I heard it. But, yes, the coverage was mainly about Channel Nine and talkback.

    We should be able to check on the Media Watch website when it is posted.

  7. [I wonder if the ETS is so confusing because Rudd hasn’t gone the Howard line and had a huge advertising campaign. Howard would have spent millions by now on advertising something like this.]
    Yeah, worked a treat, for Labor.

    Rudd hasn’t been able to explain the complicated ETS. I’ll give you 1 min of my reading time to let you explain to me all about the ETS. One minute is very generous. I’m interested in politics and my eyes glaze over when anyone tries and explains it. Hell, anyone not interested in politics wouldn’t give it 2 seconds of their time especially if a politician is doing the talking.

  8. GB – Still think the problem is the many people think it is going to cost them heaps without compensation. Heard one old bloke at the Community Cabinet say that he was told (by shockjocks probably) that it would cost him the equivalent of 25% GST.

    People glaze over at that and don’t want to hear any more. Barnaby says its a tax. You should hear Grant Goldman early a.m. – he’s a shocker about it. Barnaby is his choice for Prime Minister!!

    For me it’s – business pollutes – business cleans it up or buy credits from someone else to counteract its share of the pollution. Trade, trade, trade. The only way business wil do anything is if there is a quid in it for them eventually.

    Apart from that I don’t understand any of it.

  9. [Still think the problem is the many people think it is going to cost them heaps without compensation. Heard one old bloke at the Community Cabinet say that he was told (by shockjocks probably) that it would cost him the equivalent of 25% GST.]
    I think you’re right. The negative is so easy to get over in a sound bite. Not so the case for. However on the other hand most seem to in favour of an ETS even tthough they don’t understand it.

  10. [Well, I like the U.S. system where politicians are politico – sometimes they follow the party line, sometimes they follow their constituent line, and sometimes they vote their conscience which may involve opposing both their party and constituents.]

    The problem is that the decisive votes in the US Congress usually go in the direction supported by the lobbyist for those with the deepest pockets.

  11. [The problem is that the decisive votes in the US Congress usually go in the direction supported by the lobbyist for those with the deepest pockets.]
    Well I didn’t say the system is perfect! Obviously they need an independent and NATIONAL electoral commission that does proper re-distributions and applies uniform electoral laws and standards for the whole country.

    However, I do prefer the fact the U.S. politicians don’t rely on party bosses for their pre-selections. If they want their party to adopt different policies they can just stand up and say so and try to build support on their own, they don’t first need the permission of the party leadership.

    Also I don’t think it is completely true that the U.S. legislature is completely controlled by lobbyists. The health insurance lobby is about to lose the health care debate when the Congress passes the health care bill most likely with some form of a public health insurance option.

  12. The fear of the ETS impact on living costs can be simply defeated with a few facts. Spending on household utilities like electricity and phone is only about 8% of household budgets (way behind food, transport, mortgage/rent for non-owners, clothes, and school fees for those with kids). Electricity is at most half of that 8%. IIRC Garnaut’s estimate was that if a carbon price adds 50% to power generation costs, it might add 25% to retail prices. So it could be (worst case) a 1% impact on people’c cost of living, phased in over about 5 years. People will hardly notice it, unless they waste a lot of power. Aluminium refiners on the other hand…

  13. GB

    [The negative is so easy to get over in a sound bite. Not so the case for. However on the other hand most seem to in favour of an ETS even tthough they don’t understand it.]

    I think most people are in favour of doing something about CC, hence their support for an ETS.

    It’s obvious to bring in a big change. Look at the major “reforms” that affect almost everyone that have died; Australia Card, the GST (died once), WorkChoices.

    But the public understood much more about those 3 than the ETS (hence the large “don’t know” on the ETS).

    I still think it has been badly sold. Wong doesn’t “cut through” and get people to sit up and listen.

  14. Psephos

    I’m hardly expecting you to agree with me. I’m just fascinated to see how you will ignore a poll by a reputable company.

    You, of course, will just dismiss any evidence that you don’t like.

    NONE of those polls in Possums Pages contradict the ER poll. They tell us people think;

    1. We should do something about CC soon
    2. AGW is real
    3. CO2 is a major contributor to CC
    4. 55% approve of the ETS legislation. As Poss points out,

    [a large majority of this would probably have the same views for any piece of legislation packaged as reducing carbon emissions]

    That is NOT inconsistent with large numbers thinking it is too green or too brown and doesn’t have the balance right. I support the ETS but think it is too brown.

  15. [I still think it has been badly sold. Wong doesn’t “cut through” and get people to sit up and listen.]
    So easy to say. Just explain how you would sell it to a population that turns off politics and its issues after 2 seconds (unlike many here) unless it involves tits and bums.

  16. [a large majority would probably have the same views for any piece of legislation packaged as reducing carbon emission.]

    That’s perfectly true. So you can’t then turn around and say that the current bill has only 16% support. Does not compute. The bill has 55% support.

    I agree it’s a poll by a reputable company. As I said before, it’s also a poll with a sloppily designed question. What does the bill “give the environmental movement”? Nothing. The environmental movement (assuming such a thing exists) is not an economic interest to be compared with business. The question is nonsense, so the answer is too. GIGO is the term, I believe.

  17. Antony what do you think of the CPRS? Which Party do you think has the best position for Australia? How do you think the scenario of CC will play out to the next election?

    C,mon, you have got to have a go. 🙂

  18. GB

    That’s obvious. You need to get Hugh Jackman and Jennifer Hawkins to replace Wong and Combet. Then they’ll listen. 😀

    In reality, they could look at whatever has been successful in other comparable countries like the UK with getting public support for an ETS. That’s what I’d do.

    Now I’m off to read about King Leopold and the Congo, which I’m reliably told led to the birth of the international human rights movement.

  19. [Antony what do you think of the CPRS?]
    Like all ABC employees, Antony Green believes whatever Kerry O’Brien tells him to believe.

    Gerard Henderson told me this is the case.

  20. [In reality, they could look at whatever has been successful in other comparable countries like the UK with getting public support for an ETS. That’s what I’d do.]
    What did they do? That’s a bit of a cop out isn’t it?

  21. Psephos

    I never said the bill only had 16% support. It’s obviously a lot higher than that. I said that 16% thinking it was “balanced” was a terrible result. I am honestly shocked that it was so low and even more surprised that only 1 in 4 Labor voters think it’s about right.

  22. Re selective/random polls. I do a lot of on-line polls, mostly commercial types not political (and I am not talking about the one-off question type polls).
    They always start off by asking age and gender, generally ask if you are responsible for shopping. I often get dropped off part way through on the basis “we have enough people who answered as you did” . This is I think when I have indicated I don’t buy/use/intend to buy the particular product being polled. I don’t know how the people doing the surveys use the results but that is their business as I guess it is used for marketing.
    One of the survey companies also occasionally invites people to focus group meetings – paid! I have done a couple but missed out on one because I don’t have health insurance with HBF.

    My point is that these people don’t need to worry about whether they are getting a random cross section of the population. They can be more selective in their polls than the political pollsters can afford to be. The ultimate test for the political polls is how their figures compare with those on polling day. That is the holy grail!

  23. GB
    Give me 24 hours and I’ll think about it. One think I know is that we need more emotion than we’re getting to carry people along with it. It’s irrational but that’s why the US kept voting Repug when they supported the Dems on every issue.

  24. Antony never expresses political opinions, in the best traditions of the ABC.

    I agree the CPRS has slipped in public support over the winter. And why is that? Oh yes, it’s winter. Plus we’ve had the GFC and associated dramas, and also emailgate. That’s what a fickle thing public opinion is. Now we have the media having orgasms over boat arrivals. If we have another stinker of a summer and more bushfires, you watch public alarm go up again.

  25. [So easy to say. Just explain how you would sell it to a population that turns off politics and its issues after 2 seconds (unlike many here) unless it involves tits and bums.]

    What are you talking about? Penny is an absolute hottie and I could listen to her calm, sexy, intelligent, explanations all day. She is one of those people whose smile can light up a room.

  26. Diogenes, what is the title of your book? I have been looking for a readable book on the Congo and the Belgian experience for years. Let me know if yours is any good.

  27. Michael Cusack, if as you told me once you are related to the great J J Cusack, first Labor member for Eden-Monaro, then you are also related to the equally great Colonel Dr the Hon Mike Kelly AM MP, current Labor members for Eden-Monaro, since he is also related to J J Cusack. Were you aware of this?

  28. And very proud of them we are too. No-one can match our 120 years of service to Australia and progressive politics, or ever will.

    *Departs to sleep the sleep of the righteous before another day of smiting the forces of reaction*

  29. [Here are some additional public polling numbers likely to comfort Democrats concerned about the 2010 elections.

    A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll shows that the Republican Party’s favorability rating is the lowest since the height of its efforts to impeach former President Bill Clinton.

    Only 36 percent of polled voters said that they had a positive view of the Republican Party, the lowest that has been registered by CNN since December 1998 (when the party had a 31 percent favorable rating). The GOP also had a 36 percent favorable rating in June 2007 — the waning months of the Bush administration.

  30. Watching tonight’s efforts on Lateline got my blood pressure right up. So much so that I sent my first e-mail of complaint to the ABC.

    [If I ever have to watch such an appalling interview such as the one tonight by Tony Jones on Lateline again, then it will be the last time I ever bother to watch such a program again!!!

    Tony Jones appears to be taking on the role of the whole Coalition Front Bench in a digital version of Parliamentary Question Time.

    Tonight he asked Anthony Albenese question after question without allowing him to finish any on the Asylum issue.

    Most of those questions were “gotcha” type questions (of which Tony seems overly fond of even with the likes of Malcolm Turnbull) and were crowding out and talking on top of answers which I, and probably many other people, was “very” interested in hearing the answer to.

    I wished to know just what the Government position was on these issues and due to the dreadful manner in which Tony Jones handled the interview and the disrespectful manner in which he treated a Minister of the Crown, in utter frustration and disgust, I switched the program off.

    As an avid viewer and supporter of the ABC for 50 years or so, that was a first for me. I cannot express my disgust in tonight’s performance enough. In many ways it is probably a reaction to having felt this way on numerous occasions with regard Tony Jones’ performances on both Lateline and QANDA.

    I spend quite a bit of time on political blog sites and there is a similar strong sense of disgust and disappointment expressed by many people on those sites and I know that some have passed on their sentiments to the ABC as I am now.

    I advise that copies of this e-mail will be going to the Minister, the General Manager of the ABC, The Broadcasting Complaints Tribunal and any other avenue that I can express my disgust to.

    Just because you don’t receive a flood of complaints over issues such as tonight’s program and others especially AM Radio,(absolutely dreadful) doesn’t mean that people are not upset and extremely disappointed in your dreadful offerings. It means that, like me they are reluctant to take the step like me to complain.

    To say I am angry is an understatement!!! My taxes should be paying for much better than this.

    Please forward on to Mr Jones!]

  31. Maybe someone in the management of the ABC is desperate to help the Liberal Party whilst they still have some control in it. Maybe they see this opportunity to play on dog-whistles the last chance of the Liberal Party.

    The right wing media (including some of the ABC) are trying to make the most of this last chance gasp for the Liberal Party.

    Never had that much time for Tony Jones, he always seems a bit dim witted and ill informed.

  32. [How long is it before the ABC shake up?]

    About 12 Months too late! I hope something is done soon because the current anti-government line that is being run is thoroughly getting to me.

    I don’t have a problem with errors and blunders by Government highlighted and analysed by their commentators and journalists, but I do expect a bit of respect shown to guests on these programs.

    The current focus on “gotcha” type questions and cutting people off while they are trying to answer questions really bugs me as does repeating the same question over and over again hoping for a gotcha or a different answer.

    People who go on these programs are far too disciplined and trained to fall for the oldest trick in the book so why continue to try it on?

  33. Looks like Turnbull has decided to crawl down into the sewer and slime himself to try and get some traction. A bit of leadership and policy formation might do the trick but is apparently too much work.

    [MALCOLM Turnbull’s office has been been advising Coalition press secretaries to demonise special interest groups and attack public servants as fat cats.

    A leaked email from the Opposition Leader’s office, obtained yesterday by The Australian, also urged press secretaries to feed the perception that politicians were like pigs with their “snouts in the trough”.

    The email, headlined Digging Dirt, also called on the media advisers to concentrate on “quirky” stories which drew the attention of journalists, rather than policy discussions.

    Mr Turnbull’s spokesman last night confirmed the existence of the email but said it was sent without his knowledge.

    “This email was not authorised or approved by the leader or his office,” the spokesman said.

    “The staff involved have been counselled.”

    A spokesman for Kevin Rudd said last night the email was evidence of the opposition’s willingness to resort to smear campaigns to attract public attention to conceal its paucity of policy. ],25197,26264742-601,00.html

  34. According to what’s been reported in the Oz, that alleged muslim fanatic, allegedly preparing to bomb the bejesus out of our society, has a lot in common with that Catch the Fire Ministries prophet Danny Nalliah.

    They both believe that the Victorian bushfires are the punishment of God being visited on the Australian people for not seeing things their way.

    Why is only one of them being prosecuted?

  35. Matthew Franklin is drawing a long bow with this statement though!

    [Since taking the opposition leadership more than a year ago, Mr Turnbull has built his push for power on his economic policy credentials and has avoided personal attacks.]

    And then has the hide to say this!

    [However, the Prime Minister has frequently attacked Mr Turnbull as a smear merchant, in particular demanding his resignation after he used a forged email to demand Mr Rudd’s resignation in the OzCar affair.]

    And then he contradicts the praise he heaps on Turnbull’s credentials and not personally attacking Rudd, (Matty, you’re kidding, right?) with this admission!

    [Despite Mr Turnbull’s aspiration to provide policy-based leadership, the email, written to media advisers on September 8, advocated a low-road approach.

    “You don’t get news stories by trying to change perceptions, you get them by reinforcing stereotypes,” said the email, penned by Peter Phelps, media adviser to opposition cabinet secretary Michael Ronaldson.

    Stories worth pursuing should cover: “Fat cat public servants not caring about taxpayers, pollies with snouts in the trough, special interest groups getting undeserved handouts from tax taken from hard-working Aussies, a favoured pro-Labor contractor who seems to be getting all the work for a particular job etc,” the email said.

    “While policy discussions are nice, the simple fact is that in opposition, the majority of our successful news stories are going to be ones which are a little quirky and which draw the attention of journos.” ],25197,26264742-601,00.html

  36. Yes, I picked up on that too, Scorpio, and posted a comment under the name Guff Orr.

    Doubt if it will get published though!

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 16 of 17
1 15 16 17