Essential Research: 59-41

The latest weekly Essential Research poll shows Labor’s mega-lead remaining impervious to anything domestic or international push or pull factors might throw at it. Supplementary questions show respondents considering just about everything to be important in deciding their vote, though “political leadership” is down seven points since March and “security and the war on terrorism” is up ten. The latter is sort of good news for the Coalition, as it’s one of only three issues on which they are competitive with Labor on a “best party to handle” measure (the others are interest rates and economic management). However, it’s unlikely to do them much good if, as I suspect, it’s actually registering disquiet over Afghanistan. There’s also a question suggesting the electorate is to the left of the government on emissions trading.

In other news, December 5 has been set as the date for the by-elections in Higgins and Bradfield. Keep following developments, if any, on the dedicated posts – Higgins here, Bradfield here. The former is probably going to prove more fruitful, thanks to Greens candidate Clive Hamilton. Speaking of Greens candidates, note that the comments thread for Western Australia’s Willagee by-election has taken on a life of its own.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,849 comments on “Essential Research: 59-41”

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  1. [why not the imperatives that led them to being stuck on an Australian Customs boat 10k off an Indonesian harbour with detention centre as ensuite?]
    Well that imperative is that they want to live in Australia, hence they want to stay on an Australian boat. They simply wont accept the fact that Australia has no legal obligation to accept them at this stage.

  2. I have a lot of time for Laurie Oakes as a political journalist but that article referred to earlier was flawed to buggery. He could not back up those statements re the effect this is having on the governments standing with the electorate, with evidence.

  3. [But we aren’t part of ASEAN. If we had a proper regional forum then we could go to that forum and say we need to deal with this matter urgently.]

    true ,thats why i mentioned mk2 where we may get a seat at the table
    (hopefully with india china japan and indonesia sponsoring us)

    otherwise use the rudd/sby concord as the template with the other regional nations.

  4. Frank, while people can become quite manipulative when trying to get what they want,and we need to be aware of this, it is not confined to any particular group.

  6. [I have a lot of time for Laurie Oakes as a political journalist but that article referred to earlier was flawed to buggery.]
    It was a fence sitting article. First he says that Labor insiders are sure that the government will take a hit in the polls over the issue (which seems to just be managing expectations considering the last Newspoll was 59!), but then he follows it up by saying it is also possible that the Liberals won’t benefit at all, which would be another reason to get rid of Turnbull.

    It reminds me of a fortune cookie I once received, it said: “You may be rich, or you may not be rich.”

  7. [Frank, while people can become quite manipulative when trying to get what they want,and we need to be aware of this, it is not confined to any particular group.]

    But I was in my own muddled way noting on the similarities in tactics these two groups use, especially in light of their “leader” being a call centre worker himself.

  11. Shows On, they may not at this point accept that Australia has no legal obligation to accept them. However, I reckon they’ll be off the boat by this time next week, tucked up in whatever detention centre is to hand.
    I don’t for a moment think that Rudd will accept being blackmailed by the folk on this boat, and nor do I think he and the gov’t should.
    There’s been rather too much blowing up of boats or banging holes in the hulls, really.

  12. [However, I reckon they’ll be off the boat by this time next week, tucked up in whatever detention centre is to hand.]
    I agree. They’ll eventually just give in and realise they can’t live on a boat forever.

    They should also be told that if they are assessed to be genuine refugees, then it is very likely that Australia will accept many of them.

  15. Oakes:

    [The longest honeymoon in Australian political history may be coming to an end and Labor strategists are bracing for a dive in the next Newspoll.]

    The honeymoon is finally over?

    Oh please, not that again!

    When will these idiots realise the honeymoon has long been over, and that it’s now a fully mature marriage?

  16. BB, it’s getting to the point that one is tempted to send them some shiny, new phrases. The new phrases or adjectives don’t have to mean anything as the old ones certainly don’t.

  19. [“ Hony mone, a term proverbially applied to such as be newly married, which will not fall out at the first, but th’one loveth the other at the beginning exceedingly, the likelihood of their exceadinge love appearing to aswage, ye which time the vulgar people call the hony mone. ”

    —Abcedarium Anglico-Latinum pro Tyrunculis, 1552]

  20. Shows On,

    [It reminds me of a fortune cookie I once received, it said: “You may be rich, or you may not be rich.”]

    Sort of like a “weather bureau article”, rain otherwise fine! 😉

  23. Interesting question, cud chewer, If the boat is considered Australian territory, and Australia is a signatory to the Convention, maybe they could be processed on board. Mind you, they’d have to get past refusing to identify themselves or have health checks.

  24. [“they” meaning the Australian immigration peoples]

    Because the people on the OV are not in our custody. We didn’t apprehend or detain them (we have no right to detain people in international waters). We just rescued them. The only connection between these people and Australia is that the ship which rescued them is Australian. The only thing we have the right or duty to do with these people is to take them to a safe haven and disembark them, which we are trying to do.

  28. [It is extraordinary the difference in quality of MPs between the Libs and Labor.]

    Going by today’s Morgan Poll, 59.5% of your fellow Australians notice quite a deal of difference!

  32. There is really just the one aim for the next election and that is (apart from wining) to wrest control of the Senate away form the Libs and Independents. A 10 seat majority in the HOR is as good as a 30 seat majority.

  34. Although this is quite a reasonable and balanced article for Greg Sheridan, it irks me no end, the way that all the right wing journalists and opinion writers speak so disrespectfully of the Prime Minister.

    Go to any article from 2007 and earlier and you find Howard referred to as “the PM” or Mr Howard. The same went for the Ministers, they were always referred to in a respectful manner.

    If they think it will somehow lower the acceptance and respect of the general public of the Rudd Labor Government, then the polls are showing clearly that it is not working.

    If it was good enough to show respect to Howard & Co as PM and representatives of the people, then the same should apply now!

    [For Rudd, the priority is exactly the same as it was for John Howard, to make sure that the people on board do not come directly to Australia.

    Europe has seen many such battles of will between democratic governments and asylum-seekers. Rudd was right on radio nearly two weeks ago when, confronted with emotional pleas from the Sri Lankans, he said no Australian prime minister should submit to emotional blackmail over the integrity of Australia’s immigration program.

    If Rudd caves in to the asylum-seekers’ demands now he will get a cheap round of applause from the usual suspects on the Left,]
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26279297-21147,00.html

  35. [If the boat is considered Australian territory]

    Not for the purposes of being able to claim asylum anyway. The interpretation of laws on a ship are a little bit grey as I understand it. Generally if a ship is in port, the laws of the country of flag of the vessel apply on board, but if citizens of the port’s country are involved in any happenings then their laws apply. Ask 10 legal experts what the situation would be in this case and you’d get 10 different answers.

  36. …. Jodie Campbell’s departure is welcomed by every member of the Labor party in Tasmania… anyone who has any sympathy for her must be from the mainland and have no idea what they are talking about. Thank god she has finally announced she would not re-contest. Not a single local labor member would have campaigned for her, let alone vote for her! No doubt people who have no idea what they are talking about will say otherwise but the fact is she was pushed by the PMO, the whip, the Tasmanian executive, and the national and state left. Thank god she didn’t hang on long enough for her worst features to come out in the media.

  38. [it irks me no end, the way that all the right wing journalists and opinion writers speak so disrespectfully of the Prime Minister.]

    For some it is probably deliberate, for others a bad habit as it rolls out so easily.

    The right really dislikes Rudd, mostly because he is so competent and so popular and they hitherto had him pegged as a minor player. They cannot stomach that Rudd has slipped so easily into the role of PM and is blitzing it like an old pro. They cannot make a negative comparison between Rudd and Howard because there isn’t one.

  39. It feels a little unfair to single out one dopey comment about media bias on this site out of umpteen zillion, particularly when the subject is as incontestably conservative as Greg Sheridan. However, this one is so easy to blow out of the water that I can’t resist. These are the first three of Sheridan’s references to Howard from early 2007 which I randomly picked out from a search on Factiva.

    [This became a point of basic doctrinal disagreement between Keating and John Howard. Howard did not believe we needed to change our identity in any way in our engagement with Asia.]

    [Again, Howard’s statistics are devastating: “During the Kyoto time frame, China and India will build almost 800 new coal-fired power plants. The combined C02 emissions from those plants will be five times the total reductions in CO2 mandated by the Kyoto accord.”]

    [Howard hailed this progress at the Parliament House lunch in honour of Arroyo.]

    Nowhere was there a single reference to “Mr Howard” anywhere, nor would there ever be. It is contrary to the paper’s style guide, and probably has been since about 1970.

  40. Malcolm Turnbull seems to becoming more and more like John Howard the longer he is in the job. If he keeps up like this he will take over Howies nick name too.

    [VETERAN Liberal MP and former Howard government minister Fran Bailey says Malcolm Turnbull offered her Peter Dutton’s shadow health portfolio shortly after Mr Dutton lost a preselection contest for a safe Queensland seat.

    Ms Bailey confirmed information given to The Weekend Australian that the Opposition Leader made the offer to try to convince her not to retire from her marginal seat of McEwen, outside Melbourne, but added: “I don’t want to say any more, I regarded it as a private conversation.”

    One frontbencher accused Mr Turnbull of acting while “Peter’s body was still warm” and “throwing portfolios around” like “personal toys”.

    Mr Turnbull flatly denied making the offer, telling The Weekend Australian yesterday: “That is completely and utterly false.”

    But Ms Bailey stood by her version of events last night. “My first reaction was that it was a joke,” she said.

    Mr Turnbull issued a statement yesterday saying Ms Bailey had been “an outstanding member of parliament and minister in the last government”.

    “I did not offer her a shadow cabinet position to renominate and I am at a loss to understand how anyone would seriously imagine that I would or had,” the Opposition Leader said.

    “Nobody has worked harder to keep Peter Dutton in parliament and in the ministry than me and I was delighted by his decision to renominate in Dickson.” ]
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26283948-601,00.html

  41. I know that NSW is on the nose with all the commentators and it is assumed that they will lose the next election and I am sure the Media will make sure as they can that NSW Labor gets caned during an election campaign…

    There appears to me to be a real weakness in the Opposition leader’s numbers which leaves the door open still for Labor. But they will really need a highly respected leader to come in before the next election.

    Nationals figure seems high, Greens low, ‘Others’ high. Probably hasn’t changed since the last poll of 54.46.

  42. [It feels a little unfair to single out one dopey comment about media bias on this site out of umpteen zillion, particularly when the subject is as incontestably conservative as Greg Sheridan. However, this one is so easy to blow out of the water that I can’t resist.]

    Looks like “guilty as charged” Your Honour. I expect it because so many Liberal leaning media types did so that I threw our Mr Sheridan in the basket with them.

    Profound apologies Mr Sheridan!

  43. I think there must be a consensus building in the right wing media / Liberals that the only way forward for the Liberals is to go back to the past, become the party of John Howard.

    Who leaked the above to the OO?

  45. Here’s one for you. I used to make a point of referring to the Prime Minister as “the Prime Minister”. I largely tired of this affectation in … ooh, about late 2007, now I think of it.

  46. [It feels a little unfair to single out one dopey comment about media bias on this site out of umpteen zillion,]

    It seems to be somewhat of a habit! Good to see you abiding by the “Code of Conduct” although quite a fine line is being drawn here.

    It’s nice to stand out from the crowd occasionally! 😉

  47. George Megalogenis tends to put a lot more thought into the pieces he writes than many of the “paper shuffling” and heard from a source types but I think this is a bit too complex for me to try and analyse at this time of night.

    Somewhat chastened and having followed the thread for 1850 posts, I head for bed and leave it up to others to see where he is leading to with it!

    [THE women swing first, then the men. The pattern that saw Labor’s eastern state governments turn modest first-term majorities into second-term landslides is being repeated for Kevin Rudd.

    The latest Mind and Mood report from researchers Ipsos Mackay declares voters are over the global financial crisis and are again worried about the things Labor was elected in 2007 to fix: health, education and transport.

    Before the Coalition jumps to the conclusion that it is back in the race, Labor is better placed now than it was a year ago. The public is almost ready to give Kevin a second term to deliver what he promised in his first. ]
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26283230-5013592,00.html

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