The latest weekly Essential Research poll shows Labor’s mega-lead remaining impervious to anything domestic or international push or pull factors might throw at it. Supplementary questions show respondents considering just about everything to be important in deciding their vote, though “political leadership” is down seven points since March and “security and the war on terrorism” is up ten. The latter is sort of good news for the Coalition, as it’s one of only three issues on which they are competitive with Labor on a “best party to handle” measure (the others are interest rates and economic management). However, it’s unlikely to do them much good if, as I suspect, it’s actually registering disquiet over Afghanistan. There’s also a question suggesting the electorate is to the left of the government on emissions trading.
In other news, December 5 has been set as the date for the by-elections in Higgins and Bradfield. Keep following developments, if any, on the dedicated posts – Higgins here, Bradfield here. The former is probably going to prove more fruitful, thanks to Greens candidate Clive Hamilton. Speaking of Greens candidates, note that the comments thread for Western Australia’s Willagee by-election has taken on a life of its own.
[I’m asking the experts – what chance Newspoll (varies) in a largely different direction to Morgan?]
I’m no expert, but I will be “very” surprised if Newspoll arrives at any sort of dramatic turnaround of fortune for the Libs.
The PPM figure could be interesting. I don’t think Turnbull has done anything to turn things in his favour and if anything, Rudd could see a slight improvement in his figures.
Remember folks, you read it here first!
[A Sri Lankan man is staging a protest at the Christmas Island detention centre.
The Immigration Department says the man climbed a light pole more than seven hours ago and a negotiator is trying to resolve the situation.
It is understood the man took the action after being assessed and found not to be a refugee.]
More pole dancing?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/10/30/2729372.htm?section=justin
Tony Burke is being deliciously insouciant on Lateline.
And Leigh is a pleasant change from the likes of Fran K and Tony J.
[Tony Burke is being deliciously insouciant on Lateline.]
he has seen newspoll?
Nah, he’s always pretty laid back
Tony does the Sphinx while Scott is bursting a vein or two.
[I should go on to say that while I support a tough line on irregular arrivals I am supportive of Rudd’s approach which I think reflects my position. ie hardline but fair = Rudd.]
Well that is my point. You represent the considered view but the majority out there, who are not giving what is going on considered analysis, will just react to what they hear and think is going on and thus will be to the right of you. ie hard-line but hard-line.
So it comes down to how many people’s attention the issue actually attracted.
It will also be hard to tell from the next poll as the previous one seemed to be a high anyway and downwards is the only way to go.
Hello, bludgers. Haven’t had too much to say of recent times, due to stuff happening. However, entertained myself this evening with entering the latest Morgan results into Antony’s election calculator and laughed like a drain.
Try it. You might all cheer up a bit. And that would certainly be a GOOD THING.
Somehow this is a load of bollocks.
[Ian Rintoul from the Refugee Action Coalition says the man and two other detainees believe they were being tricked into signing forms to be voluntarily deported.
“They felt they were being tricked into trying to sign forms that would have meant they could be voluntarily deported, they were two Sri Lankans,” he said.
“When they realised that, one of the men has gone up the light pole in the grounds about 15 metres above the ground apparently and has threatened to throw himself off.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/10/30/2729372.htm
Wishful thinking from Oakes, especially as Newspoll won’t be polling until this weekend!
Sadly there’s virtually nobody left in the Canberra Press Gallery who isn’t a rusted on Liberal supporter.
YAY! Leigh Sales puts the shiny blue shirt back into the rotation.
It sounded like Scott just signed off with “Thank you, Steve.”
It’s time Red Gillard learns to speak Mandarin.
[and has threatened to throw himself off.”]
If he does he will save the taxpayers the cost of an airfare back to SL!
OK, George Megalogenis I have a lot of time for!
So, let’s assume that the next Newspoll was something like: ALP 55 COALITION 45.
Would that really be so disasterous? We know the MSM would paint it as such, but they’ve been spending the last 2 years waiting for the Liberal revival.
[Somehow this is a load of bollocks]
As if they would need their signature to deport them anyway
Stephen Long still refuses to pop his cork for Leigh, idiot.
anyone else get that creepy feeling that morrison was one of those evil marionettes from the ‘thunderbirds’.
I was waiting for one of the tracys to come and rescue us
😉
Ian Rintoul is aptly named!
Can someone please get Stephen Long a vocal coach so he can learn how to properly pronounce ‘something’ – ‘sunthin’ doesn’t do it for me.
[Sadly there’s virtually nobody left in the Canberra Press Gallery who isn’t a rusted on Liberal supporter.]
I don’t think it’s that so much, they just all want to be the news makers and have a close contest. 60/40 is not good copy for them.
However Rudd can’t let this standoff go on for another week!
If need be, we’ll probably have to take these people to Christmas Island, I just can’t see any other alternative that Rudd and Evans would be prepared to contemplate.
If it was Howard in the hot seat, we can guess force would be used to compel those people off the ship….Rudd won’t go there, right?
[Stephen Long still refuses to pop his cork for Leigh, idiot.]
Finns
leigh is spoken for.
[However Rudd can’t let this standoff go on for another week!]
Why not?
[If need be, we’ll probably have to take these people to Christmas Island]
Won’t happen in a month of Sundays
[So, let’s assume that the next Newspoll was something like: ALP 55 COALITION 45.
Would that really be so disasterous?]
Oakes is just passing on Labor speculation. I’m not surprised they are lowering expectations given the stratospheric poll results since the emailgate affair, i mean does anyone really expect the result of the next election to be Labor 57 – 59% 2pp?
Oakes even goes on to say that it is possible that Labor won’t lose votes over this and that it could end Turnbull’s leadership:
[Mind you, if the Liberal vote remains in the doldrums, despite the trouble Rudd is in over people smuggling, the backlash may well be savage.
There will be a strong argument that it is not worth persevering with a leader so much on the nose that he is incapable of exploiting even this situation.]
evan14. Of course Rudd can let the stand off go on for another week. Why on earth shouldn’t he and the government do exactly that? Where are the people on the boat going to go other than where the respective governments want them to go?
[To all those suggesting sending SL back to SL, we can’t do that as it would violate Article 33 – the principle of non-refoulment of the 1951 UN Refugee Convention.]
Diogenes, you seem to be just constitutionally incapable of facing up to the truth of this matter. The 1951 convention has absolutely no relevance to this situation. The convention applies only to people who are (a) refugees and (b) on the territory of a signatory state. We have not determined that these people are refugees, and indeed have no standing to do so since they are not on our territory or in our custody (they are just on an Australian ship which rescued them at sea.) We cannot expel people from Australia when they are not and never have been in Australia. Our only legal obligation to these people is to land them at a safe haven, which we are trying to do. I don’t want to see them taken back to SL, but if the Indonesians won’t accept them or they won’t get off the boat, that may be the only remaining option.
Is it such a bad thing if Rudd (or more accurately the workers on the OV)
Is it such a bad thing if Rudd (or more accurately the workers on the OV) “force” the asylum seekers to disembark at Indonesia? Since when do asylum seekers get to choose what country they go to or where they are processed? Seems a little precious to me.
thanks all for v. interesting discussion and now *off to bed*
[Is it such a bad thing if Rudd (or more accurately the workers on the OV) “force” the asylum seekers to disembark at Indonesia? ]
According to a law professor interviewed on ABC news last night it would be legal for Australian customs officials to use “minimal force” to make them disembark.
[Since when do asylum seekers get to choose what country they go to or where they are processed?]
They don’t. They can seek asylum once they land in a country, i.e. when they get off the boat and land in Indonesia then they can seek asylum. They can’t do so while sitting aboard an Australian boat.
Yes, bedtime for me too!
Good night Bludgers!
More rigorous debate on the weekend, I’m sure!
If the Indonesians decide to let them land, and if they then refuse to get off, I think we are well within our rights to use force, and I think the great majority of Australians would approve of that. This is an exercise in blackmail and if we give in to it there will be more and more of the same.
Vortex, I think it is a waiting game. There is to be a change over of staff for the OV this weekend. I wouldn’t mind betting that the people on board claiming asylum will all be on shore by this time next week.
Mmmm! It seems Laurie Oakes is having two bob each way on this one! Whichever way it goes, he can try and spin it that he was right!
[The PM has taken a hit over the asylum seeker issue. Probably a big one.
The longest honeymoon in Australian political history may be coming to an end and Labor strategists are bracing for a dive in the next Newspoll.
Liberals are looking forward to opinion poll results with some optimism for a change, confident Malcolm Turnbull will get a much-needed boost.
Mind you, if the Liberal vote remains in the doldrums, despite the trouble Rudd is in over people smuggling, the backlash may well be savage.]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/viking-cargo-tests-nation/story-e6frfhqf-1225792927594
But if Laurie is now reduced to getting opinion from talk-back radio and so-called “anecdotal evidence”, then he is really slipping down the slippery pole to irrelevance like so many of his colleagues on the MSM!
[But the mood on talkback radio, along with other anecdotal evidence, suggests Rudd’s Teflon coating has been seriously damaged – and not because of any Hanson-type xenophobia rearing its ugly head.]
[it would be legal for Australian customs officials to use “minimal force” to make them disembark.]
This is just a professor being squeamish. If force is used, it has to be the necessary degree of force to achieve the objective, which might be rather more than minimal. Otherwise we might as well not bother.
Havig said that, I think Rudd is right to be patient, and I think he has public support for that.
[The PM has taken a hit over the asylum seeker issue. Probably a big one.]
So far, there’s not a shred of evidence for that assertion.
Psephos, oh yee of little faith. There’s more ways of skinning a cat and so forth.
[Is it such a bad thing if Rudd (or more accurately the workers on the OV) “force” the asylum seekers to disembark at Indonesia?]
no as such,but if you believe in due process and human rights,then force is the last measure you would consider.
[Since when do asylum seekers get to choose what country they go to or where they are processed?]
there are international laws that cover the rights of displaced people and conventions that cover rescue at sea.
[Seems a little precious to me.]
the issue here is to recognise there is a regional co-ordination problem,and so accordingly to enact measures that ensure no grey areas exist.
also it is our obligation to render assistance regardless of race,creed or colour.
[evan14. Of course Rudd can let the stand off go on for another week. Why on earth shouldn’t he and the government do exactly that? Where are the people on the boat going to go other than where the respective governments want them to go?]
Actually it can go on for as long as the other boat has and longer, so long as the boat is allowed to hang around at port. The reality is that these people will not generate a great deal of sympathy. The longer it goes on becomes a battle of wills the less sympathy there is for them.
Rudd only need to utter that he will not give in to emotional blackmail to gain majority support of Australians. That is the politics of it.
However the Govt will want to settle the issue ASAP not for the sake of the people but to keep the calm of Indonesia officials who like to complain. Also they may have an announcement coming so they will not want outstanding issues.
[the issue here is to recognise there is a regional co-ordination problem,and so accordingly to enact measures that ensure no grey areas exist.]
If we had an Asian Community then it could be an issue dealt with there. There is basically no mechanism to deal with this issue within our geographic area.
[This is just a professor being squeamish. If force is used, it has to be the necessary degree of force to achieve the objective, which might be rather more than minimal.]
Well we don’t want a situation where some of these asylum seekers get off the boat and then immediately go to the Indonesian police to accuse Australian customs officers of assault.
[Psephos, oh yee of little faith. There’s more ways of skinning a cat and so forth.]
Finns alluded to,and a old salt confirmed, that a simple measure would be to “drydock” the OV for scheduled repairs/revictualling.
my understanding of these larger ships is that they require comprehensive and lengthy lay-ups on a timely basis.
😉
[If we had an Asian Community then it could be an issue dealt with there. There is basically no mechanism to deal with this issue within our geographic area.]
rudds concord with sby, should encourage the other members of asean and asean mk2 to get in the tent.
especially if china is part of the deal longer term.
[Finns alluded to,and a old salt confirmed, that a simple measure would be to “drydock” the OV for scheduled repairs/revictualling.]
Why couldn’t they say that the boat is contaminated and needs to be quarantined, which requires all the passengers and most of the crew to disembark?
Force, as in physical force, is not required, and is, indeed surplus to needs. What do you think about the proposition that there will be among the replacement crew for the OV, people who are skilled in changing situations such as these using psychology?
If we can talk people out of responding to command hallucinations, for example, why not the imperatives that led them to being stuck on an Australian Customs boat 10k off an Indonesian harbour with detention centre as ensuite?
[rudds concord with sby, should encourage the other members of asean and asean mk2 to get in the tent.]
But we aren’t part of ASEAN. If we had a proper regional forum then we could go to that forum and say we need to deal with this matter urgently.
This may sound crass and even racist, but don’t the Sri Lankins tactics remind you of their countrmens call centre script where they don’t take no for an answer ?
[This may sound crass and even racist, but don’t the Sri Lankins tactics remind you of their countrmens call centre script where they don’t take no for an answer ]
frank, sorry that is.
🙁