Essential Research: 59-41

The latest weekly Essential Research poll shows Labor’s mega-lead remaining impervious to anything domestic or international push or pull factors might throw at it. Supplementary questions show respondents considering just about everything to be important in deciding their vote, though “political leadership” is down seven points since March and “security and the war on terrorism” is up ten. The latter is sort of good news for the Coalition, as it’s one of only three issues on which they are competitive with Labor on a “best party to handle” measure (the others are interest rates and economic management). However, it’s unlikely to do them much good if, as I suspect, it’s actually registering disquiet over Afghanistan. There’s also a question suggesting the electorate is to the left of the government on emissions trading.

In other news, December 5 has been set as the date for the by-elections in Higgins and Bradfield. Keep following developments, if any, on the dedicated posts – Higgins here, Bradfield here. The former is probably going to prove more fruitful, thanks to Greens candidate Clive Hamilton. Speaking of Greens candidates, note that the comments thread for Western Australia’s Willagee by-election has taken on a life of its own.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,849 comments on “Essential Research: 59-41”

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  2. [SHARMAN STONE: Our policy will include the suite of measures that we had before and that includes looking at the type of visa you do get if you come via an unauthorised, unlawful people smuggler entry point.

    SAMANTHA HAWLEY: Chris Evans says that means a return to the Pacific Solution and temporary protection visas.

    CHRIS EVANS: To revert to the Howard policies which saw children behind razor wire, people sewing up their lips and jumping off buildings I think is not really where Australia wants to go.

    SAMANTHA HAWLEY: A spokesman for Ms Stone later said she misspoke and the position hasn’t changed. He says the Coalition is still developing its policies.]

    Misspoke? Says it all, really.

  3. Stone said

    [Those who are not found to be refugees, assist them to be deported back to their home country or place of habitual abode as soon as possible, and for the others to be resettled in appropriate countries.]

    Notice she’s not suggesting that the others should be brought to the Australian mainland. She’s not ruling out Australia but she’s making a strong pitch for some (all?) to be handed over to other countries. This after (at her suggestion) they are processed ON BOARD an Australian ship.

    What a nasty piece of work she is.

  4. [SHARMAN STONE: Our policy will include the suite of measures]
    WOW! That MUST be good, because there will be a “SUITE” of “MEASURES”.

    Not just one! There will be a SUITE. And the policy will be good because it has been MEASURED.

  7. speaking of size 7’s and size 14 mouth

    [KEVIN Rudd should ask himself one simple question – would he rather be locked up in a detention centre in Nauru run by Australia or one in Indonesia run by the Indonesians?

    If his answer is the latter then he can go on believing he has improved the humanitarian standards of Australia’s approach to border protection. Otherwise, he should drop the moral superiority act lest he be embarrassed by the emptiness of his rhetoric. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26279302-7583,00.html

    PVO dont get it
    🙁

  8. [Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Friday, October 30, 2009 at 6:36 pm | Permalink

    So let’s get this straight.

    In one year in power the WA Liberals transform a two billion dollar surplus into a two thirds of a billion dollar deficit.

    Economic managers my eye.]

    The federal government is running a deficit because of the GFC, Western Australia because of poor economic management. Get a grip on reality. In both case income has fallen dramatically.

  10. [KEVIN Rudd should ask himself one simple question – would he rather be locked up in a detention centre in Nauru run by Australia or one in Indonesia run by the Indonesians?]

    Seems to me like a very rational question.

  11. Gus,

    Rudd is wasting his popularity on being popular.

    Apparently, there is a character test involved.

    So, the new meme is that it is up to Rudd to end his honeymoon with the electorate.

  12. [unauthorised, unlawful people smuggler entry point.]

    But, Sharman, what if you come through an AUTHORISED, unlawful people smuggler entry point?

  13. [Seems to me like a very rational question]

    Why?
    esp. in the context of the OV.
    and considering the arguments advanced by GG ,shows and others.

    But generally,
    We are seeking a regional solution arent we?
    Or a reversion to the ‘deputy sherriff’ with “our” jails for “our” detainees?

  14. GG
    They are sussing out how they’d go about getting the GG (other one) to sack Rudd.
    Opposition and their X factor stooge might have a go at blocking supply? Can they do that or am i talking shite?

  15. [vp
    Posted Friday, October 30, 2009 at 8:24 pm | Permalink

    unauthorised, unlawful people smuggler entry point.

    But, Sharman, what if you come through an AUTHORISED, unlawful people smuggler entry point?]

    I think that is called an airport.

  16. The threat is to take these hijackers back to Sri Lanka. That ought to sober them up. Indonesia won’t take them, so let’s find somewhere else…

    Rudd should infiltrate a small platoon of beefy lads on board the OV to bolster morale (Paras on sabbatical maybe?) and then ask the captain to set sail for the home country – Sri Lanka.

    I have a lot of sympathy for boat people who have the gumption to actually make it to Australian waters, but the present situation – occupying the ship of those who rescued them – cannot stand. It’s too clear a signal that we are a soft touch.

    Australia is a compassionate nation, with a pretty compassionate government, but the actions of the boat people on board the OV are stretching the friendship.

    What the Coalition and their supportive media don’t realise is that Rudd is trusted in Voterland. The voters (unlike the Coalition and the media) are not looking for a “Gotcha!” on Rudd. They are not about to change their voting preference of (now) three years based on a very difficult situation that has no apparent fortunate outcomes for all concerned.

    Today’s Morgan poll shows this pretty clearly. Millions around Australia will be asking themselves right now, “What would I do?”.

    In my opinion, they would do exactly what Rudd is doing, muddling through, trying to find a way past the obstacles. They trust him enough to leave the details to his judgement, imperfect as it is.

    Those who think he’s crazy, or a hypocrite, or a traitor to Australia – from the right and the left – are in a tiny minority, and rightly so. Those on the Left will grumble, but won’t vote for Turnbull to be PM. Those on the r\Right are already demented and disaffected. They cannot be won over. Their opinion – numbers-wize – doesn’t count.

    The truth is that Rudd has “got the balance right”.

  17. If Rudd gave the order for those people to be moved off the ship, with force if necessary – his popularity would go into the 70s! Now I think he’d only do it as a measure of last resort and Chris Evans would probably disagree sharply, but I wouldn’t rule out it happening.
    I’m fast losing any sympathy I might have had for those Sri Lankans on that boat, and stunts like handing out notes to journalists demanding that they be taken to the Australian mainland don’t help their cause, in my opinion.

  18. vera,

    They can do it. But can’t see it happening.

    At the moment we are witnessing Rudd turn border protection in to a positive for Labor and the Government. Now, this is an issue that all the pundits would say is Liberal rock solid (as was allegedly economic performance). But, going by the current polls, any advantage they had is slip sliding away.

    How they going to go forcing a popular Government to a DD election?

    It would be the best opportunity to smash the Libs I’ve ever seen.

    Bring it on.

  19. Let’s look at the facts.

    Our ship saved their lives.
    For whatever reason including sabotage their boat sank.
    We were under obligation to bring them to the closest port in Indonesia.
    We have fed and clothed them and given medical attention to them.

    They are refusing any identity checks and refuse to leave our ship.
    These tamils are just pissed off they spent 10,000 bucks to spend 10 years in Indonesia. Well I say to bloody bad! You should have tried to go through the legal channels instead.

    If they wont cooperate with us Rudd is going to have to show some balls and ‘throw them off’. These people should never become Australian citizens. I hope they rot in Indonesia or back in Sri Lanka for their stunts and refusal to cooperate as any genuine refugee would.

  20. Glen,

    I’d put you in charge of the weed eradication programme any day. I’d even buy you a shovel.

    However, slightly different skill set required in diplomacy and people management.

  21. [They are sussing out how they’d go about getting the GG (other one) to sack Rudd.
    Opposition and their X factor stooge might have a go at blocking supply? Can they do that or am i talking shite?]

    Now I’ve seen some hilarious posts lately, but this one takes the cake 🙂

  23. Minchin undermining his leader by showing total support?

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/

    How do PBers see the CPRS playing out.

    Some sort of agreemnt will be sorted. However, I reckon the Libs Party room will reject the legislation but allow some sort of concience vote for individual members. The legislation will probably pass with moderately intelligent Libs crossing the floor or the trogs not voting by having their pants down at an inconvenient moment.

  24. To all those suggesting sending SL back to SL, we can’t do that as it would violate Article 33 – the principle of non-refoulment of the 1951 UN Refugee Convention.

  25. If Turnbull had any power within his party he would discipline Minchin for trying to sabotage the CPRS amendment negotiations with the government. But Turbull has no such power.

    The only silver lining for Turnbull is that it makes his “back me or sack me” exit strategy more certain.

  27. [To all those suggesting sending SL back to SL, we can’t do that as it would violate Article 33 – the principle of non-refoulment of the 1951 UN Refugee Convention.]
    Assuming that they are assessed as valid refugees.

  29. BB

    Your 1716, my 1137. Snap!

    [Dear Asylum Seeker,

    By all means try to get to the country of your preference. However, once you are out of harm’s way you can NOT choose which country to go to. Any further attempt to make such a choice will result in your being deemed an economic refugee and you will be returned to your country of origin.

    Do you understand?]

  34. [Um, has Laurie Oakes not seen Morgan tonight or is he just making mischief?]

    Ye of little faith… like all the other political commentators in Canberra he ‘knows’ politics. Rudd’s honeymoon is over, and Laurie being the player he is was the man to see it first and share it with all of us mere mortals. Of course, this is about the 7th or 8th time the honeymoon has been over (but with computers and all those technological thingys, who can count these days), but THIS time it will be different… apparently.

  35. [The longest honeymoon in Australian political history may be coming to an end and Labor strategists are bracing for a dive in the next Newspoll.]
    How unoriginal, honeymoon over again and again and again!

  36. BB

    I’m not making this up. Laurie Oakes has said it. 😉

    [The PM has taken a hit over the asylum seeker issue. Probably a big one.

    The longest honeymoon in Australian political history may be coming to an end and Labor strategists are bracing for a dive in the next Newspoll.]

    And as Shanas said, even if there is a short-term drop which would be pretty minimal, this is likely to play out as a Labor win with the public in the long-term.

  38. [How unoriginal, honeymoon over again and again and again!]

    Amigo, the way that Therese is shaping up each day, it’s honeymoon for the Ruddster everyday 😉 😉

  39. I don’t know but I always feel these issues do have some effect on the xenophobe nerve in many. Is probably why Turnbull and co are increasing their hard-line, they may have some evidence that the issue is having some effect. If this blog elicits some hard-line reactions you can imagine how much more so out in the wild.

    Politically, the longer the issue goes on the more hard-line Rudd has to seem. The media are trying to help the Libs by keeping the issue going as long as possible but there can’t be too much mileage left in it. Maybe one last push in the weekend papers. We saw what they tried with the fake Ute-gate where truth didn’t matter to what they published – so there is no low the Murdoch media enemies of Rudd wont go.

  42. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/mp-on-kid-porn-charges/story-e6frf7jo-1225792942770

    (oddly, the Victorian Herald Sun has the most comprehensive web report up so far).

    Tasmanian independent (ex-Labor) MLC for Elwick, Terry Martin, facing charges of producing and possessing child pornography. He has pleaded not guilty. Conditional bail was granted and hearing scheduled for Feb 10.

    I have no view on whether or not he is guilty and would not express it in public if I did. However a trial starting only months before he faces (or not) re-election as MLC for Elwick is a major development whether he is guilty or not – especially as nothing else other than his well-known health problems (Parkinson’s) posed the slightest threat to his re-election until now.

    I met him on Tuesday night where he was at the council election count; his son was elected to Glenorchy council. Reading between the lines I wonder if the arrangement with police was for him to present himself to be arrested once the count was done and dusted.

  43. [If this blog elicits some hard-line reactions you can imagine how much more so out in the wild.]

    TP,
    those people would vote Liberal anyway and I’m not sure that PB blog doesn’t reflect a range of political positions with most falling about the centre IMO so I think opinions here do not digress greatly from those out in the wider community (ex the shock jock audience).

  45. TP,

    I should go on to say that while I support a tough line on irregular arrivals I am supportive of Rudd’s approach which I think reflects my position. ie hardline but fair = Rudd.

  46. Laurie Oakes lost all his credibility as a serious journalist the day when he decided to publish the affair between Kernot and Evans.

  48. Oakes strikex me as someone who hasn’t yet mastered new fangled technology and clearly relies on his transistor and a couple of chats by the water cooler to test the veracity of his columns.

  50. [Laurie Oakes lost all his credibility as a serious journalist the day when he decided to publish the affair between Kernot and Evans.]

    oakes is another who slurps at the fount of howard.

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