Essential Research: 59-41

The latest weekly Essential Research poll shows Labor’s mega-lead remaining impervious to anything domestic or international push or pull factors might throw at it. Supplementary questions show respondents considering just about everything to be important in deciding their vote, though “political leadership” is down seven points since March and “security and the war on terrorism” is up ten. The latter is sort of good news for the Coalition, as it’s one of only three issues on which they are competitive with Labor on a “best party to handle” measure (the others are interest rates and economic management). However, it’s unlikely to do them much good if, as I suspect, it’s actually registering disquiet over Afghanistan. There’s also a question suggesting the electorate is to the left of the government on emissions trading.

In other news, December 5 has been set as the date for the by-elections in Higgins and Bradfield. Keep following developments, if any, on the dedicated posts – Higgins here, Bradfield here. The former is probably going to prove more fruitful, thanks to Greens candidate Clive Hamilton. Speaking of Greens candidates, note that the comments thread for Western Australia’s Willagee by-election has taken on a life of its own.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,849 comments on “Essential Research: 59-41”

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  1. NEWSFLASH! The Australian gives up on Turnbull; seeks other ways to get rid of Rudd:
    [HIGH Court Chief Justice Robert French would not give legal advice to Governor-General Quentin Bryce on whether she could sack Kevin Rudd in the event of a constitutional crisis.

    Reflecting on Garfield Barwick’s advice to governor-general John Kerr in 1975 that it was within his powers to dismiss the Whitlam government, Chief Justice French said Ms Bryce would have to seek other “sources” of advice.

    While careful not to criticise Sir Garfield’s role in The Dismissal, Chief Justice French said there was no constitutional convention to entitle the governor-general to seek advice from the nation’s most senior judge – either with or without the prime minister’s permission.]
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26281083-601,00.html

  2. [Or am i wrong in ascribing any form of rationality to a bunch of complete and utter eedjits?]

    Sadly Imacca, yes

    they still slurp from the fount of howard

  4. GG

    [You never miss an opportunity to claim the whole thing is a Goverrnment debacle.]

    As I said before, many of you would be saying this was a debacle if it was Howard but you are so blinded by partisanship that you cannot see it.

    [You completely discount the words of Rudd]

    I listen to Rudd but when he says that children and women won’t be locked up and the Indonesian Foreign Minister says they will, he is wRONg (as much as it hurts you to admit it).

    [You take the word of some junior official over the stated agreement between SBY and Rudd.]

    No, I said that he contradicted SBY.

    [You seem to rejoice in your ignorance and delight in your being wrong.]

    You mean like;

    1. The boat coming from Indonesia
    2. It being in Indonesian waters when rescued
    3. That it was the Indonesians responsibility to disembark the refugees
    4. That the Indonesians haven’t contradicted themselves
    5. Australia taking more refugees per head than any other country
    6. There not being a deadline

  5. So let’s get this straight.

    In one year in power the WA Liberals transform a two billion dollar surplus into a two thirds of a billion dollar deficit.

    Economic managers my eye.

    Just another bunch of snout in the trough wallys who are hell bent on ruining this once prosperous state.

    They make NSW Labor appear positively appealing by comparison.

  6. Dio – an Indonesian bloke said today that the women and children would be allocated houses within the confines of the prison but would not be in with the mean behind wire.

  8. [As I said before, many of you would be saying this was a debacle if it was Howard but you are so blinded by partisanship that you cannot see it.]
    Dio, this really is a BS argument and you know it. I don’t know about anybody else but I’m sick of people telling me how I would have reacted under Howard when I know how I reacted and it wasn’t like you say I would have reacted. I’m assuming you mean me because you never name names. You just give a blanket spray, so I’m obviously included in that, given that I’m a “many of you” on here.

  9. SO

    Do you realise that people are dying in Afghanistan etc? You seem to have missed this fact. Many of these people fleeing think they are MORE likely to die in their country than on the leaky boat. So making them stay makes them MORE likely to die.

    And not all refugees are the same. Some are more likely to be persecuted than others, so they will be more likely to leave than the others who choose to stay.

  11. 9 news exclusive, they got notes written by the asylum seekers on the OV, the guards on the boat won’t let them talk to reporters. They begged please please let the world know what’s going on.
    Very dramatic, they had made up crumpled scraps of paper with typing on them ( i kid you not!) and in a voice over of a what i imagine they think a Sri Lankan sounds like, read them in a pleading voice.
    They aren’t getting enough food and water are only allowed 2 minute showers and cant do their washing?
    OH ex-navy says they were only allowed 3 minute showers, if it good enough for our sailors and all that.
    They won’t win any friends biting the hand that is feeding them, Maybe that’s 9’s aim, to pretend to be taking the AS side to anger the magority of Aussies and ramp up the race hate so Turnbull will be Mr Popular when he claims Howard’s policy as his own?

    This is supposed to be the news, even viewers of A Current Affair type trash would cringe watching that beat up full of crap sob story!

  12. [I’m assuming you mean me because you never name names.]

    Why would you assume I mean you because I never name names?

    And no, I completely believe that many people who are praising Rudd for his stance would be attacking Howard for exactly the same stance.

  13. Yes, but I’m only using the Liberal’s own argument, Gary. The GFC didn’t exist in Australia don’cha know? 🙂

  14. Scorpio@1645:

    [Morgan have their full poll results up, now with a lovely graph!]

    Yes, except why have the unit on the vertical axis four percentage points instead of five, or two, or ten?

    Very unlovely. The only thing worse would have been tick marks at three, or six, or seven.

  16. Vera,

    This is being stage-managed by well educated members of the group on the ship, in concert with the usual supporters in Australia.

    They are behaving like the Greens are with the ETS – they are hankering for the good old days where they were relevant.

  17. [Why would you assume I mean you because I never name names?]
    It’s a general statement aimed at PBers. I’m a PBer. It’s also a BS argument with no basis of fact. Prove it if you can.

  18. GB

    As I’ve said before, FWIW I look for your posts as the most balanced and straight and scarily accurate of the Labor fans. It really was a generic comment.

  19. The problem for those on the OV is that the more the media do this stuff the less credible the asylum seekers seem and the less sympathy they receive. There is no way they should be allowed to come here. What a precedent it will set.

  20. [The problem for those on the OV is that the more the media do this stuff the less credible the asylum seekers seem and the less sympathy they receive. There is no way they should be allowed to come here. What a precedent it will set.]

    Exactly – they have overbeaten their cake over this and it will backfire in their faces big time.

  21. [Prove it if you can.]

    Almost every comment here cannot be proven because they are opinion, such as this;

    [The problem for those on the OV is that the more the media do this stuff the less credible the asylum seekers seem and the less sympathy they receive. There is no way they should be allowed to come here. What a precedent it will set.]

    It would be a sad day if I made the comment “Prove it if you can” after that wouldn’t it, as you obviously wouldn’t be able to prove it.

  22. [I completely believe that many people who are praising Rudd for his stance would be attacking Howard for exactly the same stance.]

    dio, as i suspected you are from tarsus
    😉

  23. Frank,

    That latest Morgan shows a 2.5% surge for Labor on Primaries. The Greens down 1.5%.
    Perhaps the asylum seeker issue is polarising the community in Labor and Rudd’s favour.

    Hopefully, it becomes a trend and the Greens become the “never weres” of Australian politics.

  24. [That latest Morgan shows a 2.5% surge for Labor on Primaries. The Greens down 1.5%.
    Perhaps the asylum seeker issue is polarising the community in Labor and Rudd’s favour.

    Hopefully, it becomes a trend and the Greens become the “never weres” of Australian politics.]

    It’s so cute how all the little rusted Laborites take a minor party swing from a single poll 🙂

  25. Frank @ 1670,

    “Exactly – they have overbeaten their cake over this and it will backfire in their faces big time”.

    Classic!

  26. [It really was a generic comment.]
    I get that Dio and I appreciate your comments.
    That still doesn’t make the argument that “many of you would be saying this was a debacle if it was Howard but you are so blinded by partisanship that you cannot see it” anymore valid or convincing though. Prove it that many here would be saying something different if it were Howard. Are you going to go through each person in turn and give examples?
    Dio, you argue a good case much of the time but this type of argument adds nothing to the debate.

  27. [It’s so cute how all the little rusted Laborites take a minor party swing from a single poll]
    Another example of a useless argument. Adds nothing. Just designed to put other people down and question their sincerity.

  29. GB

    As I said, I cannot prove it. The reason I make the comment is to refute the idea that I am only arguing my position because I am anti-Rudd (I quite like him and think he’s doing a good job on most things). I am suggesting that it is that many people are pro-Rudd and that I’m neutral, which is why I am attacked so often.

  30. [Another example of a useless argument. Adds nothing. Just designed to put other people down and question their sincerity.]

    It’s funny that – I haven’t posted anything attacking the Greens, or about Carps new job on the Willagee thread, and I’m accused of being silent on the issue.

    Kind of proves my point that they are only interested in personal attacks, and not debating the topic on it’s merits.

  32. Hey Frank
    I was going to say what GG said, Greens down 1.5% to 7.5% 👿
    I’m ducking for cover now, you handle the rest of the artichoke army for me if they go on the attack!

  33. Dio, tell them you’re not anti Rudd and present them with the facts like you have been. I understand your reasoning for going down that path but aren’t you just doing what a very few here are doing? It’s like two kids yelling at one another –
    “You have always hated Rudd.” ”
    Well, you always think he’s right.”
    “No I don’t.”
    “Yes you do”.
    (Tongues poke out)
    Just BS.

  34. GB

    It’s that naughty GG.

    Frank

    I had a couple of looks at the Willagee thread but couldn’t bring myself to read all those long posts. Can you give us the gist? I haven’t seen anything like it on PB before when real first-hand politics happens on the thread.

  35. [Finns – So you’re saying that the Indonesian provincial governor isn’t Indonesian. You need to go back under the Knowledge Tree.]

    Diog, when the Christmas Island Ramada was being built, there was also a lot of local opposition:

    [Guantanamo’-style detention facility under construction on Australian Island

    Monday, November 28, 2005

    The Australian Government is currently building a “Guantanamo-style detention facility” – a $210 million, 800-bed Immigration Reception and Processing Centre – on Christmas Island, 1400km off Australia’s northwest coast. The project has residents concerned about the prospect of having imprisoned detainees and possible terrorism suspects as neighbours. The island’s Shire President, Gordon Thompson, says residents are also worried about the effects the controversial detention centre development will have on the island’s tourism industry. “We’re not building tourism based on a prison tour,” he said, also voicing fears that residents would be barred from areas on the northwest point of the island. He said locals were confused and did not know if the centre would just be used for refugees or as a Guantanamo-style prison. Another resident complained that access to popular fishing and snorkelling spots on the island would be limited.]

    http://en.wikinews.org/wiki/%27Guantanamo%27-style_detention_facility_under_construction_on_Australian_Island

    The locals can scream and shout as loudly as they like but the decision is with the central government as always.

    btw: if the local govt on Bintan Island is so opposed to the refugees, why did they accept money from Australia to build the detention centre. what is it for then? Batik fashion parade? At least i know where my knowledge tree stands. 😛

  37. [I had a couple of looks at the Willagee thread but couldn’t bring myself to read all those long posts. Can you give us the gist? I haven’t seen anything like it on PB before when real first-hand politics happens on the thread.]

    Basically the Greens are fighting amongst themselves and are splitting the Green vote witrh the “independent” being the former endorsed Greens Candidate before being “persuaded” to reopen nominations.

    Lets just say their dirty laundry is being aired 🙂

  38. Like the Wayang Show, things happen in Indonesia always come with the shadows and puppet behind the scene. When a NO is a YES, and a YES is a MAYBE then a MAYBE is “how much”. It is always a trap for young player like Diog.

    [Storm over Jakarta graft-buster arrests

    By Kate Hamann in Jakarta for Radio Australia

    Posted 2 hours 0 minutes ago

    Indonesia’s celebrated anti-corruption agency, which has a history of run-ins with authorities, has now seen two of its deputy commissioners arrested.

    Chandra Hamzah and Bibit Samad Rianto were suspended in September after police alleged they had overstepped their powers, while also accepting bribes to drop an investigation.

    But anti-corruption analysts say the move could be part of a wider campaign to undermine the fight against graft in Indonesia.

    The Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) has a 100 per cent conviction rate.

    But its successes in exposing and prosecuting corrupt politicians, business people and bureaucrats also made the agency enemies among the Indonesian elite, including the police force.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/10/30/2729155.htm?section=justin

  41. Don,

    [Yes, except why have the unit on the vertical axis four percentage points instead of five, or two, or ten?]

    I bet it’s because visually it makes it look as though the Coalition are still within striking distance. If the Units were say 10, then it would laak more like the hopeless case it is.

    On the other hand if say they made the units 2, then it would look ridiculous and too far from the reality of the actual poll figures. Morgan is a Lib supporter after all and doing his bit so as to not demoralise them altogether. Five would have looked nice!!!

  44. Chris Evans on PM this evening gave the clearest indication that the OV issue will be resolved soon with a happy ending.

  48. BTW Finns – my OH is asking if he can share your front porch when Ms Stardust comes to call. I told him that grumpy old bast….ds are out of the loop. He’s got to put up with this old duck.

  49. BH, i was having dinner so did not get his exact words. But the juice is as i posted. The transcript should be on PM website soon.

Comments are closed.

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