Essential Research: 59-41

The latest weekly Essential Research poll shows Labor’s mega-lead remaining impervious to anything domestic or international push or pull factors might throw at it. Supplementary questions show respondents considering just about everything to be important in deciding their vote, though “political leadership” is down seven points since March and “security and the war on terrorism” is up ten. The latter is sort of good news for the Coalition, as it’s one of only three issues on which they are competitive with Labor on a “best party to handle” measure (the others are interest rates and economic management). However, it’s unlikely to do them much good if, as I suspect, it’s actually registering disquiet over Afghanistan. There’s also a question suggesting the electorate is to the left of the government on emissions trading.

In other news, December 5 has been set as the date for the by-elections in Higgins and Bradfield. Keep following developments, if any, on the dedicated posts – Higgins here, Bradfield here. The former is probably going to prove more fruitful, thanks to Greens candidate Clive Hamilton. Speaking of Greens candidates, note that the comments thread for Western Australia’s Willagee by-election has taken on a life of its own.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,849 comments on “Essential Research: 59-41”

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  1. [Speaking of Greens candidates, note that the comments thread for Western Australia’s Willagee by-election has taken on a life of its own.]

    And with absolutely no input from me for a change 🙂

  3. [“We don’t spend any of our time digging dirt,” said one senior source. “This is not the way we operate.”

    Mr Rudd’s spokesman said the email accurately described the Coalition’s tactics.

    “When you don’t have any policies, the only thing you have is smear and dirt.”]

    A better line to take might be to invite the Opposition Press Sec’s to the Ground Breaking ceremony of some of the major infrastructure projects. Give them a shovel.

  4. [Despite Mr Turnbull’s aspiration to provide policy-based leadership, the email, written to media advisers on September 8, advocated a low-road approach. “You don’t get news stories by trying to change perceptions, you get them by reinforcing stereotypes,” said the email, penned by Peter Phelps, media adviser to opposition cabinet secretary Michael Ronaldson.]

    This is the same Peter Phelps who compared Mike Kelly to a concentration camp guard during the 2007 campaign, when he was chief of staff to Gary Nairn.
    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s2038092.htm

  5. Michael Cusack

    The book is called “King Leopold’s Ghost” and it’s by Adam Hochschild. It’s extremely good. It covers the plunder of the Belgian Congo and genocide by King Leopold and the human rights movement which opposed it.

  6. xcorpio,

    I’m 100% with you about last night’s Lateline. Albo handled it well. I suppose you can handle anything when you have made it in the ALP. Great e-mail.

  7. Newspaper circulation down 10% in the US in 6 months. Ouch!

    [THE plunge in US newspaper circulation is accelerating, according to the latest figures, as more people cancel subscriptions and publishers cut distribution and sales of discounted copies.

    Average weekday circulation at 379 daily newspapers fell 10.6 per cent to about 30.4 million copies for the six months that ended on September 30, 2009 from the same period last year, according to the US Audit Bureau of Circulations.

    The pace of decline more than doubled compared with last year.]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26265563-5005962,00.html

  8. For those interested in foreign matters, this is an interesting story from Pakistan. The interview of the Pakistani academic by George Negus on Sunday (SBS Dateline) was also very good. Both suggest the Pakistani army is now making progress in the campaign against the Taliban, and the recent bombings are an attempt to deflect attention away from this fact. The Pakistan army has finally gotten serious in fighting against the Taliban, instead of sheltering them. (This is a major achievement by Hillary Clinton IMO.)
    http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/04-six-militants-killed-in-south-waziristan-kotkai-qs-07#

    Without wishing to blow any dog-whistles, and I’m no security expert, I think there are security implications for us in this. Taliban fighters are drifting away trying to hide among civilian refugees. If Pakistanis try to enter here as refugees in the coming months it would be wise to screen them carefully this time, with interviewers who can tell the difference between Pashtun and Pharsi. Unlike ex Tamil Tigers, ex-Taliban will keep fighting here, and would see us as an ally of their enemy.

  9. The “Boat People” stuff isn’t working for the Libs, but they’ll keep banging on about it in parliament(because they’ve got nothing else, other than senate obstruction).
    Nick Minchin is one of their more odious frontbenchers – he’s obviously angling for a job with Telstra.

  11. [Sources said more senior Turnbull advisers who later saw the email were “outraged” and moved quickly to inform Mr Turnbull and rebuke its author.

    “We don’t spend any of our time digging dirt,” said one senior source. “This is not the way we operate.”]

    “We don’t spend any time digging dirt’???

    I’d like to ask Godwin Grech that. What’s worse, they not only dug the dirt out of the hole, they filled the hole before they started digging.

    Sheesh.

  12. William’s post:

    [There’s also a question suggesting the electorate is to the left of the government on emissions trading.]

    Australia must be getting infiltrated by tofu greens and pinko commies 😀

  13. Oh brother, you’d think Turnball might have learnt his lesson from the Grech debacle.
    Another free kick for Rudd & Co in QT today.

  15. [“We don’t spend any of our time digging dirt,” said one senior source. “This is not the way we operate.”]

    Sure. They get their News Ltd puppies to dig for them.

  16. [This is why the voters are hostile to Muslim immigration, which in turn is why they are oppposed to unauthorised boat arrivals.]

    Are you doing a Tuckey and claiming terrorists are on boats? You’re a staffer for Labor Senator David Feeney! Media! Quick! Over to Adam!!! 😀

  18. [Despite Mr Turnbull’s aspiration to provide policy-based leadership, the email, written to media advisers on September 8, advocated a low-road approach.]

    I’m struggling to think what those policies are that Turnbull is basing his leadership on.

  22. the email, penned by Peter Phelps, media adviser to opposition cabinet secretary Michael Ronaldson.]

    Is Ronaldson the bloke the Libs used for most of their mudslinging over the last few years? I seem to remember he said some pretty odious things while Howard was around. Seems like Malcolm has taken him over from little Johnny.

    Scorpio – excellent email to ABC. You must surely have heard OH and me yelling as well. What a woeful performance by Tony Jones and Albo knew it so he was most gracious (for Albo i.e.)

    Joe O’Brien on Breakfast today was looking for David Marr to give the Govt. a caning over the Indonesian solution but on the whole Marr was very fair so Joe didn’t have his usual “Äh ah, I just got Labor a good one” smile at the end of the interview. O’Brien’s attitude is so obvious.

    BTW – anyone know where Trioli is this week? I thought she’d just had a couple of weeks off.

  23. Did Trioli get suspended because of the “Barnaby Joyce” thing?
    Ronaldson is a nasty piece of work, like most of their senate team.

  24. [Are you doing a Tuckey and claiming terrorists are on boats?]

    No I’m not. I’m pointing out that the behaviour of people like those in the article I posted make many people hostile to Muslim immigration. And since virtually all of the boat arrivals (apart from the recent Sri Lankans) have been Muslims, that explains a good deal of the hostility to them. The genuine refugees among them can blame those people, plus David Hicks, Jihad Jack, Sheikh Hilaly, and these guys
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/benbrika-found-guilty-20080915-4gov.html
    for the reception they get.

  25. Micheal Ronaldson used to be the bag carrier for the Costello Faction in Victoria and used to do the numbers for them.(Not very successfully), He was the Member for Ballarat until he had Cancer, He left Parliament, recovered and then was parachuted into the Senate, with the support of the afore mentioned faction. A very odious character who has a reputation of a take no prisoners approach. Politically adrift now that he mentor/leader is gone. Prediction , will attach himself to any solid object that promotes the growth of slime.

  28. [Did Trioli get suspended because of the “Barnaby Joyce” thing?]

    I should think not. She should only get suspended for doing something inappropriate.

  29. Phelps and Ronaldson trying to coordinate their thinking is a sight to behold.

    [The nuances of why Ronaldson found staff travelling arrangements “unbelievable” and the Department of Finance’s investigation of Senator McLucas merely “almost unbelievable” had to wait, because Ronaldson’s office then realised they’d done their sums wrong. At 3.54pm the following went out:]

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/05/29/press-release-pandemonium-at-parliament-house/#comments

  30. [Both suggest the Pakistani army is now making progress in the campaign against the Taliban, and the recent bombings are an attempt to deflect attention away from this fact. The Pakistan army has finally gotten serious in fighting against the Taliban, instead of sheltering them.]
    I don’t understand why there isn’t a U.N. peace keeping force in Pakistan helping the Pakistan army fight the Taliban.
    [I should think not. She should only get suspended for doing something inappropriate.]
    I thought it was inappropriate.

  31. Ah ah the libs dirt unit members are at last being identified, this Phelps from the Mike Kelly campaign is a nasty bit of work, while working for Gary Nairn a person of similarly disposition now dumped from parliament with the rodent there is a god.

  32. [I should think not. She should only get suspended for doing something inappropriate.]

    [I thought it was inappropriate.]

    Read between the lines (or line, whatever). It’s an understandable response to the wacky Barnaby. Of course it’s inappropriate from a TV presenter.

  33. I wonder who has replaced Grech as Turnball’s mole in the public service?
    Anyone? There’s got to be another Liberal sympathiser or leftover from the Howard era in there.

  34. BH,

    [Scorpio – excellent email to ABC. You must surely have heard OH and me yelling as well. What a woeful performance by Tony Jones and Albo knew it so he was most gracious (for Albo i.e.)]

    I’ve watched some pretty awful stuff on Lateline over the past three years, but that effort last night was the “first” time I have ever switched the TV off in disgust!

    Tony Jones really hung out his Liberal shingle last night. All through the segment on asylum seekers he was feral ( it is an issue that the Libs are desperate to get traction on) but when he went to the part on infrastructure, he let Albo ramble on as much as he liked.

    This just reinforced that to Jones, asylum seekers was the hot button issue for the Libs and infrastructure a third tier issue or less and allowed Albo to cool down a bit to try and cover up the badgering.

    It didn’t cool me down, I switched it off, mad as hell!!!

  35. [Read between the lines (or line, whatever). It’s an understandable response to the wacky Barnaby. Of course it’s inappropriate from a TV presenter.]
    Oh OK, so you agree with me.

  36. [This just reinforced that to Jones, asylum seekers was the hot button issue for the Libs and infrastructure a third tier issue or less and allowed Albo to cool down a bit to try and cover up the badgering.]
    The ABC asylum seeker position is to the left of Labor. Jones wasn’t doing the Liberal bidding because 1) they don’t have a policy 2) Jones seemed to be criticising the Government for not being lenient enough.

  37. I’ve disliked Jones since his disgraceful performance on the 2007 election night coverage – he’s a show pony, very full of his own self-importance. One hopes he gets dumped and replaced permanently on Lateline by Leigh Sales.

  38. [There’s got to be another Liberal sympathiser or leftover from the Howard era in there.]

    I would think that there would be quite a number of them but they will be far more careful about how they disseminate info to the Libs now since Grech!

    The libs will also be far more careful about what info they use and how they use it to protect their undercover moles now. Pretty hard for them to do, I know and mistakes are bound to be made especially while Turnbull is Leader!

  40. [he’s a show pony, very full of his own self-importance.]

    That stands out very much so in QANDA! Some one high up in the ABC likes his style but unfortunately has stroked Jones’ ego by telling him so.

    Consequently Jones has started to believe he is a “star performer” in the field of current affairs and tries to prove it on a nightly basis.

  42. [I’ve disliked Jones since his disgraceful performance on the 2007 election night coverage – he’s a show pony, very full of his own self-importance.]
    His questioning of Nicole Cornes was perhaps his lowest effort.

    But other than that, I like watching the shows he is on.

  43. [I don’t understand why there isn’t a U.N. peace keeping force in Pakistan helping the Pakistan army fight the Taliban.]

    Because if its role was to fight the Taliban, it wouldn’t be a peace-keeping force.

  45. Shows On,

    [The ABC asylum seeker position is to the left of Labor. ]

    Pretty hard to tell, last night. Maybe from the tone and style of the questions and the way Tony Jones talked over the top of Albo every time.

    One would never know because Jones never let Albo even finish an answer. I was quite interested to hear Albo’s “full” response on a number of Jones’ questions.

    They were far more than just deepprobing ones looking for a “gotcha” and I was interested in how Albo countered them.

    To me,Jones missed a couple of chances last night to really back Albo into a corner but he pushed too hard cutting Albo off and hit him with more questions which turned the whole segment into an unqualified mess!

  46. Lateline and Q&A wouldn’t be ratings winners surely?
    Jones full of his own importance but not enough viewers to cause the slightest ripple I’d have thought 😉

    The only Peter Phelps I know of is the Aussie actor!

  47. [Because if its role was to fight the Taliban, it wouldn’t be a peace-keeping force.]
    Well I think a U.N. force should be there to ensure the security of government buildings and infrastructure.

    We should be helping the Pakistani government NOW before it descends into an all out civil war.

  49. If you’re Craig Thompson, it makes good sense to publicly bag your state counterparts!
    The only thing going for NSW Labor is that O’Farrell is a dud, and if the Libs don’t dump him before 2011, you wouldn’t write off the prospect of a hung parliament after the next poll.

  50. Psephos. Yes, I am related to JJ Cusack. My dad was very proud of him and had several funny anecdotes about him passed down through the family. I didn’t know Mike Kelly was related, although being of an Irish Catholic pioneering family in south eastern NSW the odds were probably pretty short that there would be some connection.
    It probably helps to explain his talent!!

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