Redraw redrawn

The federal redistribution of New South Wales has been completed, with a final determination that turns up fewer surprises than the recent effort in Queensland. Antony Green has as always given the new boundaries the once-over; all margins quoted herein are as calculated by him.

• The commissioners have responded to widespread criticism of the original proposal to put the electorate name of Reid out of commission, the general feeling being that Australia’s fourth prime minister deserved better. It has been decided that instead of changing the name of its eastern neighbour Lowe to McMahon (which under the redistribution takes in 32 per cent of the voters from abolished Reid), it will instead change to Reid and the new name of McMahon will be given to Prospect, located further to the west.

• To maintain continuity with local government boundaries, the frequently redrawn Calare will recover the western shires of Parkes and Forbes it was to lose to Parkes, and lose the areas of Wellington Shire Council (including Mumbi and Neurea) and Mid-Western Regional Council (Mudgee and Gulgong) it was to gain from it. This is great news for Calare’s National Party member John Cobb, whose margin is now cut from 12.1 per cent to 3.5 per cent rather than the originally proposed 1.2 per cent.

• The vast interior electorate of Farrer, which was originally to remain unchanged, will now absorb a part of the Shire of Central Darling including Wilcannia from Parkes, with no impact on its margin. Parkes in turn will gain the balance of the Shire of Parkes around Lake Cargelligo from its southern neighbour Riverina.

• A transfer of 1100 voters in the north-eastern part of the Shire of Tenterfield from New England to Page has been reversed. This has been counter-balanced by the transfer of the Shire of Lachlan from New England to its western neigbour Parkes. The collective changes to Parkes cut the Nationals margin from 13.8 per cent to 13.6 per cent.

• A transfer from Hume to Throsby south of Sydney has been slightly clipped so the town of Bundanoon remains in Hume. Hume also has its gain from Macarthur further to the north expanded to bring the boundary into alignment with the Nepean River and Sickles Creek, adding Theresa Park, Orangeville and Brownlow Hill in Sydney’s outskirts. None of the margins are affected.

• A transfer around Duckenfield on the west-east boundary between Newcastle and Paterson has been reversed, returning that area to Newcastle, which has further gained the adjacent area of Millers Forest.

• There have been minor adjustments to boundaries betweeen Cunningham and Macarthur, which have been tidied with elimination of a salient that formerly extended into Macarthur at Darkes Forest; Grayndler and what will now be called Reid, the latter of which gains a few blocks of territory to keep Croydon within one electorate; Bennelong and Berowra, where a proposed transfer of 1900 voters in Beecroft from the former to the latter has been reversed; and to the new boundary between Blaxland and Parramatta (in territory previously covered by Reid), adding three blocks of territory to the former at Granville.

• Other adjustments are more incidental still: a transfer of the unpopulated Spring Hill industrial area north of Port Kembla from Throsby to Cunningham has been reversed; Hughes’s boundary with Cook and Cunningham has been altered to follow the Illawarra Railway rather than nearby roads; and the boundary between Mitchell and Parramatta will now follow North Rocks Road rather than nearby Darling Mills Creek.

Other news:

• According to the ABC, the decision to maintain the name Reid increases the likelihood that its nominal member, Laurie Ferguson, will seek to continue his political career through a preselection challenge against John Murphy, the member for what is currently called Lowe. Ferguson is demanding that the matter be determined by a local ballot rather than the state or national executive processes which tend to prevail in contentious circumstances.

• Thwarted in McPherson, Liberal MP Peter Dutton now confirms he will attempt to retain Dickson, which he earlier swore he wouldn’t do.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports “sources across all factions” agree that Macarthur MP Pat Farmer is certain to lose Liberal preselection at next Thursday’s ballot to former Campbelltown mayor Russell Matheson. It is further said by Salusinszky’s sources that Farmer, who dumped a bucket on his own constituents on election night and has since moved far away from them to the expensive north shore suburb of Mosman, is only running to be eligible for parliamentary superannuation granted to those who serve three terms followed by “involuntary departure”. Soraiya Gharahkhani of the Camden Advertiser reports Labor’s preselection for the seat looms as a four-way contest between Nick Bleasdale (local carpenter and narrowly unsuccessful candidate from 2007), Greg Warren (the deputy mayor of Camden), Michael Freelander (a Campbelltown pediatrician) and Paul Nunnari (a wheelchair athlete). Ben Raue at The Tally Room offers an informed overview of the local political situation. The redistribution has turned the seat from 0.7 per cent Liberal to 0.1 per cent Labor.

• The Courier Mail says the Liberal preselection for new Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright will be “a five-way affair” involving Cameron Thompson, who lost Blair to Labor’s Shayne Neumann in 2007; Hajnal Ban, Logan City councillor and Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007; and Bob La Castra, Gold Coast councillor and former presenter of the 1980s children’s television show Wombat.

• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the New South Wales Liberal Party is “talking about recruiting everyone from the former ABC broadcaster Sally Loane to the former right-hand man to John Howard, Arthur Sinodinos”. Loane’s services are reportedly sought in Coogee, while Sinodinos might replace the outgoing Peter Debnam in Vaucluse. Conservative Sydney Morning Herald columnist Miranda Devine is apparently not interested.

• Former NRL player Hazem El Masri has also reportedly been approached by the Liberal Party to stand in the ultra-safe Labor seat of Lakemba. However, Andrew Clennell in the Herald relates that “Liberal sources said yesterday they believed Mr El Masri would not agree to stand for Parliament”. Labor is also said to have its sights on El Masri, with earlier conjecture he might succeed Tony Stewart in Bankstown.

• The Progress Leader reports Graham Watt, the owner of a local carpet cleaning business, has been preselected as the Liberal candidate for Jeff Kennett’s old seat of Burwood, currently held by Labor’s Bob Stensholt on a margin of 3.7 per cent. Watt reportedly received 70 votes against 45 for former Hawthorn AFL player Steve Lawrence (who was given a reference by Kennett) and five for David Solly, IT manager and one-time Nationals member.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

811 comments on “Redraw redrawn”

Comments Page 15 of 17
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  1. Diog
    I would probably now be in the “don’t know” category because I’m losing interest and just want Rudd to do a deal with the Libs and get on with it.
    I don’t reckon I’m Robinson Cruso in my thinking either.

  2. That are sloppy questions lets take the first one

    1. Do you believe that human activity such as burning fossil fuels is causing dangerous climate change?

    The answer is clearly NO for the planet’s climate is forever changing, the question should be does burning fossil fuels contribute to climate change, the answer is of course YES

  3. Steve,

    I think this post was pretty close to being on the money. The Greens won’t support “any” ETS, the Nationals won’t support “any” ETS and most of the Liberals don’t want to support an ETS.

    With the likes of Fielding (any ETS) and Mr X not prepared to support Labor’s ETS and a massive campaign in the media by CC deniers, who wouldn’t be confused!!!

    [zombie mao for Alannah
    Posted Monday, October 26, 2009 at 5:44 pm | Permalink

    I read the ETS poll results as: WHAT IS THIS ALL ABOUT, I’M CONFUSED.]

  4. Indonesia is a member of ASEAN and there is a free movement of people between ASEAN members. In addition, Indonesia has free movement of people between the Islamic countries. Add to that, corruption in Indonesia is a way of life that happens in every level of the society. So border security does not exist in Indonesia.

    And you cant stop people who want to get to heaven. The only thing missing is the 73 virgins.

    [Rudd’s ‘Indonesia solution’ could be lifesaver – KEVIN Rudd’s “Indonesia solution” has been given the provisional thumbs-up from key players in the refugee lobby, who say intercepting asylum-seekers in the archipelago could save lives.

    As new details about the controversial approach began to emerge, Refugee Council president John Gibson cautiously welcomed the deepening partnership with Jakarta. Mr Gibson said greater support for Indonesia in managing asylum-seekers had the potential to improve the lot of refugees already in immigration detention centres in Indonesia.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26259114-5013404,00.html

  5. Fox last night were saying Obama may not go to Copenhagen.
    Yes I know it’s Fox and most likey bulldust but still, if Obama didn’t turn up would it make any difference?

  13. There’s been a lot said about the refugees being “mis-treated” by the Indonesians. How was Cornelia Rau treated at the Baxter Hilton?

  14. Finns,

    Cornelia Rau’s treatment and Vivienne Salons deportation are shameful blights on the character of the nation. However, it is very much a “there but for the grace of God go I” situation. There could be an equally evil scenario playing out right now which is not known.

    The Government might change, but the bureaucracy lives forever.

  15. Psephos

    I agree that the questions are a bit sloppy but they don’t lead the voter down a path

    [of insidious intent

    to lead you to an overwhelming question]

    It’s a fairly bald, straight-forward question of whether the ETS is too green, too brown or just right.

    It looks like Rudd and Wong have failed to convince their own side, let alone everyone else, that their policy is the right one. I think it’s been sold terribly.

  16. GG, my point was simply that we should not get on our moral high horse and start pointing our fingers at the Indonesians at the first opportunity.

  18. Finns,

    Agree.

    Maybe this process will result in the “civilization” of the Indonesians in the minds of the Australian community.

  19. TheTruthHurts:
    [With an extra 1000 Illegal boatpeople since then I wonder what the punters think of Rudd’s soft touch policies now.]

    I wonder what Turnbull would do about it. Lots of bluster, but no sign of anything yet.

  20. If the Greens supported Labor’s ETS, then the CPRS legislation would pass the senate. That’s right Greens Bludgers, the CPRS would pass the Senate. Why?

    Because the pressure on X and F would be so great that they would fold easily!

    If the bookies would bet on that scenario, I would be prepared to bet in zeros it happening.

  21. [Every other official inquiry into Australia’s refugee intake, including those commissioned by the Howard government, has concluded that mandatory detention is (I paraphrase) stupid, counterproductive, barbaric and absurdly costly. It is doubtful that a ……. commissioned inquiry would conclude much differently, more doubtful that they’d deserve the benefit of the doubt.

    …….. can’t convincingly turn back the clock to hardline Howard-era policies. Nor can he come out and say that refugees have the very sort of tenacity, initiative and guts that we want in this country, and that the boat/plane dichotomy is nebulous]

    Andrew Elder

    Without the names it’s hard to work out if Andrew is complaining about Rudd or Turnbull. Twiddle dum and Twiddle dee.

  24. [Psephos
    Posted Monday, October 26, 2009 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    We don’t need a question on asylum seekers: the 59% speaks for itself. “Tough but humane” is what the people want, and that’s what they’re getting.]

    So our labor hack doesn’t want the facts. Preconception is enough.

  25. I’m not sure how you can read the figures (30% say it’s too brown, only 16% say it’s got the balance right, and even that has only 25% of Labor support) and not read that The Greens message is cutting through.

    [Because the pressure on X and F would be so great that they would fold easily!]

    This is a really silly analysis. Xenophon is in power for another 4 years and even if there was a double dissolution, no matter what happened on the ETS, he’d be re-elected and probably bring a friend along.

  27. Oz,

    I notice no anti Government updates on your NSW site for over a month. Too much work or shying away from anti Green news or just can’t stomach the Labor comeback.

  29. [Who’s this guy on 7:30 report bagging Labor and the Liberals? He makes some fantastic points ]

    must be another “crypto-communist”

  30. Oz, if the Greens supported the CPRS, you would have a proposal to act on CC jointly by both Labor and the Greens. The pressure on X and F would be enormous. X would be the first and then F to fold.

    Why is it a silly analysis?

    Are you saying X would reject it because he has another 4 years in parliament? Well I think that’s a silly analysis.

  31. [Who’s this guy on 7:30 report bagging Labor and the Liberals? He makes some fantastic points]
    Alan Ramsey. He looked like he had just got out of bed and didn’t bother shaving.

  32. GG
    Did you see George Miller on the news offering Rees the staring role in his next Mad Max movie 😀
    Preferred premier ratings would top the Ruddster’s.

  33. #726 bob1234
    Alan Ramsey. He sounded bitter about all the changes he’s seen. It wasn’t a good interview because he was just lamenting and complaining most of the time. Funny at the end, though, when he said he resorted to quoting himself to find something interesting to say and knew it was time to get out.

  34. NEWSPOLL: 85% support voluntary euthanasia:
    [ SUPPORT for voluntary euthanasia is on the increase in Australia, with a new survey showing 85 per cent of the country is in favour of it.

    The result from the poll, conducted by Newspoll on behalf of Dying with Dignity NSW, saw a five point increase in support from the results of the last survey, conducted in 2007.

    The 2009 study, involving 1201 adult respondents, found 10 per cent of Australians opposed voluntary euthanasia while five per cent were unsure.

    Support was at its greatest in Western Australia where 88 per cent of respondents were in favour of voluntary euthanasia,]
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26262019-29277,00.html

    William / Frank, any idea why so many people in W.A. want to die?

  36. [Funny at the end, though, when he said he resorted to quoting himself to find something interesting to say and knew it was time to get out.]
    He didn’t just quote himself, he would just copypasta large slabs out of Hansard, or other opinion pieces from other papers:
    [For the past three years, Mr Ramsey’s weekly column in the Sydney Morning Herald has seen him indulge in the theft not just of an occasional phrase, sentence or paragraph but of huge chunks of other writers’ words. This is not an occasional lapse on a slow week. Rather, it has been journalistic theft raised to a lifestyle. Week after week, up to 85 per cent—let me repeat that: up to 85 per cent—of Mr Ramsey’s columns consists of excerpts from a book, a transcript, Hansard, an article or some other such source.

    Let me give the House some examples. On 8 February 2003, Mr Ramsey filled up most of his column with extracts from Hansard quoting the honourable members for Barton and Brand, which at least shows he has good taste in whose words he steals. On 15 February, in somewhat less good taste, he gave us a very long quote from the new darling of European film-makers, Mike Moore. On 22 February, three-quarters of the column consisted of quotes from the Leader of the Opposition. On 24 May, we had extensive quotes from ANU economist Julie Smith taking up at least half his article. On 31 May, half of Mr Ramsey’s article consisted of an editorial from the Times of London. These examples come from just a couple of months last year. I could go on with such examples at great length. ]
    http://www.danbymp.com/index.php?article=114

    I don’t think Ramsey was plagiarizing, towards ‘the end’ of his career he just tended to rely on huge slabs of other people’s writing for what were meant to be his opinion pieces.

  37. I’m starting to think that if Obama does not go to Copenhagen, the Liberals will never support an ETS. Maybe we should focus all our energies on local issues, CC is out of our hands folks.

    Maybe if we could pass the CPRS as a starting point we could apply some pressure on the US to do likewise?

    And the Greens wanted to enact legislation with cuts to 40% lol 😆

  38. [Psephos
    Posted Monday, October 26, 2009 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    We don’t need a question on asylum seekers: the 59% speaks for itself. “Tough but humane” is what the people want, and that’s what they’re getting.

    So our labor hack doesn’t want the facts. Preconception is enough.]

    If the Liberals were cutting through on asylum seekers, Labor woluld not be polling 59%. It’s the only issue they’ve talked about over the current polling period. we know that nothing else is cutting through for them. Now we know that asylum seekers isn’t doing so either. I can figure this out, so can any reasonably intelligent person. I guess you were at the back of the queue when reasonable intelligence was being handed out.

  39. Dio – I wonder if the ETS is so confusing because Rudd hasn’t gone the Howard line and had a huge advertising campaign. Howard would have spent millions by now on advertising something like this.

    Garnaut said I think that it would cost us about the price of a coffee per week(?) per household so instead of saying it will cost …% they should use the simpler dollars &cents line I think.

    Barnaby Joyce uses lowest common demoninator language – it is cutting through.
    Fight fire with fire I say.

  40. Shows On,

    An organisation called “Dying with Dignity” publishes a poll in favour of Euthanasia.

    I’d be questioning the methodology and the questions before drawing any conclusions.

  41. [I guess you were at the back of the queue when reasonable intelligence was being handed out.]
    Now, now… We can’t all be as smart as you Psephos!

  42. [An organisation called “Dying with Dignity” publishes a poll in favour of Euthanasia.]
    Well Newspoll actually conducted the poll. I doubt they would conduct a poll using questions that were obviously flawed, that would ultimately just wreck their reputation.

  43. I used to love Alan Ramsey’s columns but after his heart problems he never quite recovered his old zest. 12 years of Howard may have worn him down a bit and he may have preferred the old days of Hawke & Keating. I’ll have to read the 7.30 Report later. Obviously he has a book to sell otherwise he wouldn’t be on telly.

    He’s always looked pretty well worn. Is married to Laura Tingle of the AFR and her columns are always good whether they favour my side or not.

  44. [NEWSPOLL: 85% support voluntary euthanasia]

    If this Newspoll is reasonably accurate (that’s no allusion to today’s debate, honest 🙂 ) then it’s time that the government took notice. Which reminds me of one of my bugbears – conscience votes and the Kevin Andrews bill. People seem to think that conscience votes are a good thing, but we don’t elect members of parliament for their consciences. We usually don’t know where they stand on matters of conscience on election day. MPs are simply indulging themselves at the expense of their constituents if they vote according to their personal beliefs. They are there to represent their electorates, so when they have a free vote they should do whatever they can to gauge their electorates’ opinions and vote accordingly, whether they personally agree or not. They can’t, in good “conscience”, vote against something that 85% of the population supports.

  45. [I’ll have to read the 7.30 Report later. ]
    Apparently the video interview on the 7:30 Report webpage is longer than what was broadcast.

  47. Oz

    We’re in the majority now!!

    30% say the ETS should be greener and only a pitiful 16% say it has the right balance. We can dine out on this poll for ages. 😀

    Aren’t we a democracy? The will of the people should be listened to or there will be political consequences. Why is Rudd ignoring what the voters want? Why is he taking the risky option of leading policy away from public opinion towards King Coal?

    :kiss:

  48. [People seem to think that conscience votes are a good thing, but we don’t elect members of parliament for their consciences. We usually don’t know where they stand on matters of conscience on election day.]
    Well, I like the U.S. system where politicians are politico – sometimes they follow the party line, sometimes they follow their constituent line, and sometimes they vote their conscience which may involve opposing both their party and constituents.

  49. [Aren’t we a democracy? The will of the people should be listened to or there will be political consequences. Why is Rudd ignoring what the voters want?]
    Democracy doesn’t always mean majority rule, that’s majoritarianism.

  50. [Now, now… We can’t all be as smart as you Psephos!]

    We can try.

    [Why is Rudd ignoring what the voters want?]

    Rudd is giving the people exactly what they want – competent, honest, moderate government and cound policies. That’s why Labor’s on 59% derr.

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