Morgan: 62-38

The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan face-to-face poll (three days old now, but what the hell), conducted over the previous two weekends, has Labor’s lead increasing still further, from 61-39 to 62-38. Labor’s primary vote is up a point to 51.5 per cent the Coalition’s is down one to 32.5 per cent.

Elsewhere:

• The Liberal preselection vote in Peter Costello’s seat of Higgins went according to script, with his former staffer Kelly O’Dwyer defeating Andrew Abercrombie at the final vote by 222 votes to 112. Reports over the past few days suggest O’Dwyer might be off to Canberra sooner than expected. The Prime Minister appears to be wooing Peter Costello with job offers (executive director of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in London being the main tip, according to Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald) so as to afflict the Liberals with another troublesome by-election. Costello did not rule out going out early when he made his surprise retirement announcement in June. Glenn Milne reports such a departure might come soon enough for a by-election to be held on the same day as that for Bradfield.

• Alan Tudge, a former staffer to Brendan Nelson and Alexander Downer, has won the Liberal preselection to succeed Chris Pearce in the eastern Melbourne seat of Aston. Andrew Landeryou of VexNews reports Tudge won the final ballot from Neil Angus, having seen off Nick McGowan, Terry Barnes, Deanne Ryall, James Matheson, Sue McMillan, Mike Kapos, Darren Pearce, Ken Aldred and Michael Flynn at earlier counts.

• Julia Irwin has announced she will retire from her safe Labor western Sydney seat of Fowler at the next election, taking the opportunity to launch a spray about the failings of her party’s power structures (her own success in cornering a safe seat for 11 unproductive years being an evident case in point). Irwin believes the Labor margin in the seat has been “built up” by her own personal qualities and hard work, owing little or nothing to its classic low-income, high-immigration Labor profile. Appropriately enough, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports her departure “threatens to create a factional fight” between the Left, which backs Liverpool mayor Wendy Waller, and the Right, which is pushing the unsuccessful 2004 candidate for Greenway, Ed Husic. Laurie Ferguson, left homeless by the redistribution’s abolition of his inner west electorate of Reid, is said to have “little support” from his own Left faction, and “his career is most likely over”.

• Phillip Coorey further reports that factional disputes in Fowler over control of local branches are echoed in the south coast seat of Throsby, whose disappointing member Jennie George is “contemplating whether to run again”.

• Will David Hawker’s departure from Wannon open an entry for the Nationals? The electorate’s history suggests otherwise, but Alex Sinnott of the Warrnambool Standard reports the party is considering running a candidate for the first time since 1984.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a decision by the New South Wales Liberal Party to bring forward federal preselections (so they are conducted on recently published draft redistribution boundaries) is likely to secure the positions of Bronwyn Bishop in Mackellar and Philip Ruddock in Berowra. In further exciting news on the Liberal renewal front, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Alby Schultz and Pat Farmer will again seek preselection in their respective seats of Hume and Macarthur. Farmer launched a spray at his constituents on the night of the 2007 federal election for failing to give him the margin he felt he deserved, and has since moved to the expensive north shore suburb of Mosman. Macarthur has been made a notionally marginal Labor seat under the draft redistribution.

• Imre Salusinszky also reports that police sergeant Darren Jameson is favoured to win Liberal preselection in Belinda Neal’s seat of Robertson, notwithstanding that former Liberal member Jim Lloyd is considering a comeback.

• The Liberal National Party’s feeble legal challenge to Queensland Labor’s win in Chatsworth at the March state election died its inevitable death when the Queensland Supreme Court brought down its ruling on Thursday. A smaller than average 14 errors were identified into the count, the effect of which when rectified was to increase Labor’s margin from 74 votes to 85. There were a grand total of two cases of double voting, both involving confused elderly citizens. Antony Green offers some commentary on the judgement, which stands as a heartening confirmation of the integrity of Australia’s electoral processes.

• With New South Wales state Labor member Phil Koperberg indicating he is bitterly disappointed with politics and might not go the distance, Antony Green weighs in with an overview of his electorate of Blue Mountains. It notes that Kerry Bartlett, who lost the corresponding federal seat of Macquarie to Koperberg’s predecessor Bob Debus in 2007, has been mentioned as a potential Liberal candidate.

• Alex Sinnott of the Warrnambool Standard reports that Liberal preselection candidates for the Victorian state upper house region of Western Victoria include incumbent David Koch, former police sergeant, anti-corruption campaigner and Wannon aspirant Simon Illingworth, former Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, Colac businessman Richard Riordan and Daylesford real estate agent Paul Johnson. Another incumbent, John Vogels, is retiring. The coalition agreement gives the Liberals the top two positions on a joint ticket, with the Nationals taking the third.

• Anna Caldwell of the Courier-Mail reports a private members’ bill sponsored by independent Nicklin MP Peter Wellington to introduce fixed three-year terms has been voted down by both government and opposition. The former wants the matter determined by referendum – Deputy Premier Paul Lucas further says a four-year term would be “more appropriate” as it would “enable necessary planning and implementation time for governments”, which (given the state of play south of the border) makes one doubt the government’s seriousness about seeing reform.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

395 comments on “Morgan: 62-38”

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  2. [If they are catching up, doesn’t that make another Grand Coalition more likely?]

    Sadly yes, although no-one wants one. Another four years of grand colaition would probably finish the SPD off, which would be sad for the world’s oldest social-democratic party. But if the SPD+Green+Left combo again gets a majority, but the SPD won’t form a government reliant on the Left, another grand coalition would be the only alternative. The best result, if the SPD+Greens can’t win, is for Merkel to have a big win and let the SPD recover its support in opposition.

  3. Psephos@27:

    [Good morning class. Now, what is wrong with this sentence?]

    Are you trying to be a pompous prat, or does it come naturally?

    All that was required was an email to William.

  4. If PASOK wins in Greece, there will be a third generation of the Papandreou family as PM. This is fairly common in Greece, where all politics is dynastic, but I can’t think of another example elsewhere, apart from the Nehru-Gandhis in India, who will enter their fourth generation when Rahul becomes PM.

  6. ABC Midday Report showed Murdock going into the business dinner Rudd hosted last night. He was asked his what he thought of the Australian economy and his answer was “It seems pretty good”

  7. Psephos@55:

    [If you don’t wish to particpate in the class, Don, you can go outside and play.]

    Hmmm, you do unwarranted condescension well, also.

    I don’t think I want to participate in your particular class, thank you. I prefer teachers I can respect.

  8. BB – I forgot the bit where Milne said that until now Labor pollies have been too scared to stand up to Rudd’s foul behaviour but now they’ve decided enough is enough and they are speaking out against him. Said this is the first break and watch for more. In his dreams!!!

  9. [More telling, 6.9million Americans (or 5 per cent of the workforce) have been sacked since the US recession officially began in December 2007. Australia, by contrast, has found jobs for an extra 100,000 people (0.9 per cent) in the same period.

    The point the deregulationists have never quite grasped is that labour market reform is a tool for recovery, not recession.

    Employers are likelier to act in the national interest if they screw their workers in good times because it helps to cement community expectations of low inflation. Screwing workers in a downturn only fulfils the prophesy of recession because lower wages beget lower consumption, which begets another round of cost-cutting.

    Just look again at the US. Deregulation isn’t saving jobs; it is doing the reverse by telling employers they have no social obligation in a recession.

    Here’s the real scoop about Australia. Co-operation between labour and capital has always been the superior model. ]
    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/the_misnomer_of_labour_market_reform/

  10. [showed Murdock …..He was asked his what he thought]

    Vera – I want him asked what he is going to do about his foul-mouthed ‘hate Obama’ FoxNews commentators.

  11. BH
    Milne’s been reading Vexnews maybe?
    [But we have reached a stage where the reaction of the little people matters not much at all in the Land of Rudd, according to caucus insiders.

    They feel shut out and neglected by a government that is doing too much, possibly spending too much and being now quite frequently caught out on the detail.

    The mood in caucus is foul and almost sad about how they’ve been treated. In some ways, the strong showing of Rudd in the polls only adds insult to injury.

    This highly capable leader whose boyish Queensland charms seduced the nation treats the caucus like the hired help. Regardless of state or faction, an increasing number of them tell VEXNEWS they don’t like it very much at all.]
    http://www.vexnews.com/news/6313/teflon-colossus-anti-social-conduct-praised-when-kevin-rudd-does-it

  12. [The “that” in square brackets is what makes the sentence make sense, and if it had been actually written rather than left for the reader to infer, there would have been no problem. This is called the “garden path” error. The reader is led a long way up the garden path, thinking they are reading one sentence, before they get to the point where they realise they are wrong, and they have to go back up the garden path to find out what they are actually reading.]
    You are better off simply holding both interpretations in your head until the full meaning resolves itself. No backtracking.

  13. [You are better off simply holding both interpretations in your head until the full meaning resolves itself. ]
    But don’t we need to make a choice as we read in order to make sense of the words?

  14. BH, it’s Another World over there at FOX, they did a poll saying 66% of doctors were against Obama’s health plan but even that number wasn’t high enough so they had a doctor on saying that really 80% are against because his special online poll for doctors said so!

  15. [I don’t think I want to participate in your particular class, thank you.]

    Well don’t blame me at exam time.

    [You are better off simply holding both interpretations in your head until the full meaning resolves itself. No backtracking.]

    Some readers will of course do that. But it’s better not to require that of them.

  16. ShowsOn @59
    Yep. Australia really dodged a bullet getting rid of Howard and WorkChoices.

    We would be completely screwed right now.
    And of course, they would have used the GFC to justify an even more extreme IR policy.

  17. And of course, they would have used the GFC to justify an even more extreme IR policy.

    Dead right.

    It would have been “We all [ie- you] must tighten our belts another notch…”, or perhaps “The need for workplace flexibility [ie- bastardry] is even more paramount in these uncertain times…”

    We dodged a rocket-propelled grenade.

  18. [Regardless of state or faction, an increasing number of them tell VEXNEWS they don’t like it very much at all.]

    Would this be the lot who maybe are a little incompetent and without any chance of succeeding anyway, I wonder?

    Vera – I am struggling to understand how so many millions of Americans can be without health care of any kind and yet the Rwingers think that’s OK. That’s amazing in 2009.

  19. I am struggling to understand how so many millions of Americans can be without health care of any kind and yet the Rwingers think that’s OK. That’s amazing in 2009.

    It comes from the initial assumptions: 1) that America’s health care is the best the world has to offer; 2) that Obama is an atheist-muslim-commie-nazi traitor; and 3) that Obama is trying to change America’s health care system.

    Of course, only the third assumption is valid.
    But if you accept all three, then it follows very easily that Obama is evilly striving to destroy America’s world-beating caring christian capitalist health-care paradise.

  21. Does anyone know why many of the links on the right-hand side have been swapped with various news organisation links and the recent comments are all on non-existent threads?

  22. Tom the first and best,

    Oh dear, the terrorists/freedom fighters/children are at it again!

    As long as they let us talk, just ignore them…

  26. [Hands up if you’ve ever heard of Professor Steven Kates? ]
    Well he seems to be saying that millions of people losing their jobs is normal, and government’s shouldn’t do anything about it.

    Fortunately he isn’t in a position to actually implement such a heartless policy.

  28. [Fortunately he isn’t in a position to actually implement such a heartless policy.]
    Does he have tenure? If so, he is a very, very funny guy.

  30. [Labor senator Doug Cameron said Prof Kates’ comments had certainly embedded in his mind that you should never let an “academic economist run the economy”.

    “Why have the IMF, the OECD, the ILO, the treasuries of every advanced economy, the Treasury in Australia, the business economists around the world, why have they got it so wrong and yet you in your ivory tower at RMIT have got it so right?” Senator Cameron said.

    Prof Kates said the response to the crisis had been based on Keynesian economics that backs government intervention to stabilise growth during a downturn in a business cycle.

    “The use of Keynesian economics has been one of the great catastrophes for economic theory in the west,” Prof Kates said. ]

    So I take it the Pro-Liberal Party far right ignore-the-evidence ‘OMG SOCIALISTS’ free market extremist economists are speaking first at the enquiry then?

  31. http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1924348-1,00.html

    For those who haven’t seen Glenn Beck on Fox I hope I’ve got that link correct.

    An interesting, if frightening, read.

    Doug Cameron’s questioning of Kates left no one in doubt about what Doug thought. The market should sort it all out – ups/downs, employment/unemployment. Doesn’t matter if people get hurt because that’s how things get sorted out. I bet Doug wanted to jump the desk and throttle him.

  32. I can’t see the point of fast-tracking preselections to secure long term incumbents given that in the event of a snap election it’s what the party would do anyway.

  34. If Bishop, Ruddock, etc. are preselected now does that mean that the Libs can’t change them if the election is not held with a DD or could they still bring in new blood.

  35. According to the RMIT web site, Kates is a Senior Lecturer and he was appointed to the Productivity Commission by Peter Costello.
    So he’s yet another free market economist benefitting from employment at a government subsidised institution.

  36. [If Bishop, Ruddock, etc. are preselected now does that mean that the Libs can’t change them if the election is not held with a DD or could they still bring in new blood.]

    I would think both the state executive and the federal executive have the power to overturn the preselections – as the I think the NSW executive did in Cook in 2007. But you’d have to read the party constitution to know for certain. It’s very selfish of both Ruddock and Bishop (not to mention Tuckey) to want to spend their retirement years as parliamentary spectators while talented younger people are kept waiting.

  37. [I bet Doug wanted to jump the desk and throttle him.]
    No need to throttle a person who’s already hung themselves by the rope you supplied them.

  38. [It’s very selfish of both Ruddock and Bishop (not to mention Tuckey) to want to spend their retirement years as parliamentary spectators while talented younger people are kept waiting.]

    Agreed – selfish indeed. If Turnbull is the strong leader he thinks he is he should ask them to reconsider.

  39. I would like to know how these professors tell the difference between stimulus spent and stimulus saved. Do they do surveys? If I put my 900 bucks in the bank for a month and then spent it, would I be a saver or a spender?

    I wonder if it possible to divide economics professors as follows, or whether we need more professors:
    RMIT: conservative
    ANU: liberal

  41. [Agreed – selfish indeed. If Turnbull is the strong leader he thinks he is he should ask them to reconsider.]
    If Turnbull applies any pressure then it would just create an all out war that would lead to a leadership spill.

  44. [If I put my 900 bucks in the bank for a month and then spent it, would I be a saver or a spender?]
    Savings is just deferred spending. Economists don’t differentiate between the two.

  45. [Americans lead the world in medical innovation and technology, so yes, they are the best.]
    This makes no sense. The United States doesn’t provide universal health care coverage.

    It rations medical care based on who can afford it, which is morally reprehensible.

    It also spends more than any other developed country on health care, which makes their health care system a massive weight that holds back their economy.

  46. No 88

    I agree that it is selfish, but the fact of the matter is that the Liberal Party has far more democratic preselections than Labor, and candidates are essentially the choice of the branch (bar in exceptional circumstances when the executive can override preselected candidates).

  47. No 95

    ShowsOn, in a mostly privatised system like the US it doesn’t make sense to say that healthcare is “rationed”. Healthcare is provided according to ordinary market forces. I agree that poor coverage is a problem, but it is a nonsense to say that healthcare is rationed in the US.

    Government systems have rationing due to limited public resources, hence endless waiting lists.

  48. [I agree that it is selfish, but the fact of the matter is that the Liberal Party has far more democratic preselections than Labor,]
    You can have all the democratic pre-selections you like, meanwhile, Labor will just preselect better candidates.
    [(bar in exceptional circumstances when the executive can override preselected candidates).]
    And yet the executive keeps saving the nutter Dennis Jensen.

    The Liberal party is completely upside down. The executive intervenes to save wackaloons, but doesn’t intervene to clear out deadwood.

  49. [“The use of Keynesian economics has been one of the great catastrophes for economic theory in the west,” Prof Kates said.]
    Telling comment, I think. Of course, it is the theory that must be preserved. Too bad about the real economy and community etc.

  50. [Savings is just deferred spending. Economists don’t differentiate between the two.]

    Well, these professors are. Professor Leigh has somehow determined that 59.5% of the cash splash was saved and Professor Davidson is using the figure to argue against the cash splash. Davidson has now just parroted the Opposition in picking out single examples of schools spending to argue against the entire schools spending (except he inflated the single-student school handout to $850,000). This is appalling from one who is supposed to take a scientific and statistics based view.

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