The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan face-to-face poll (three days old now, but what the hell), conducted over the previous two weekends, has Labor’s lead increasing still further, from 61-39 to 62-38. Labor’s primary vote is up a point to 51.5 per cent the Coalition’s is down one to 32.5 per cent.
Elsewhere:
• The Liberal preselection vote in Peter Costello’s seat of Higgins went according to script, with his former staffer Kelly O’Dwyer defeating Andrew Abercrombie at the final vote by 222 votes to 112. Reports over the past few days suggest O’Dwyer might be off to Canberra sooner than expected. The Prime Minister appears to be wooing Peter Costello with job offers (executive director of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in London being the main tip, according to Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald) so as to afflict the Liberals with another troublesome by-election. Costello did not rule out going out early when he made his surprise retirement announcement in June. Glenn Milne reports such a departure might come soon enough for a by-election to be held on the same day as that for Bradfield.
• Alan Tudge, a former staffer to Brendan Nelson and Alexander Downer, has won the Liberal preselection to succeed Chris Pearce in the eastern Melbourne seat of Aston. Andrew Landeryou of VexNews reports Tudge won the final ballot from Neil Angus, having seen off Nick McGowan, Terry Barnes, Deanne Ryall, James Matheson, Sue McMillan, Mike Kapos, Darren Pearce, Ken Aldred and Michael Flynn at earlier counts.
• Julia Irwin has announced she will retire from her safe Labor western Sydney seat of Fowler at the next election, taking the opportunity to launch a spray about the failings of her party’s power structures (her own success in cornering a safe seat for 11 unproductive years being an evident case in point). Irwin believes the Labor margin in the seat has been “built up” by her own personal qualities and hard work, owing little or nothing to its classic low-income, high-immigration Labor profile. Appropriately enough, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports her departure “threatens to create a factional fight” between the Left, which backs Liverpool mayor Wendy Waller, and the Right, which is pushing the unsuccessful 2004 candidate for Greenway, Ed Husic. Laurie Ferguson, left homeless by the redistribution’s abolition of his inner west electorate of Reid, is said to have “little support” from his own Left faction, and “his career is most likely over”.
• Phillip Coorey further reports that factional disputes in Fowler over control of local branches are echoed in the south coast seat of Throsby, whose disappointing member Jennie George is “contemplating whether to run again”.
• Will David Hawker’s departure from Wannon open an entry for the Nationals? The electorate’s history suggests otherwise, but Alex Sinnott of the Warrnambool Standard reports the party is considering running a candidate for the first time since 1984.
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a decision by the New South Wales Liberal Party to bring forward federal preselections (so they are conducted on recently published draft redistribution boundaries) is likely to secure the positions of Bronwyn Bishop in Mackellar and Philip Ruddock in Berowra. In further exciting news on the Liberal renewal front, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Alby Schultz and Pat Farmer will again seek preselection in their respective seats of Hume and Macarthur. Farmer launched a spray at his constituents on the night of the 2007 federal election for failing to give him the margin he felt he deserved, and has since moved to the expensive north shore suburb of Mosman. Macarthur has been made a notionally marginal Labor seat under the draft redistribution.
• Imre Salusinszky also reports that police sergeant Darren Jameson is favoured to win Liberal preselection in Belinda Neal’s seat of Robertson, notwithstanding that former Liberal member Jim Lloyd is considering a comeback.
• The Liberal National Party’s feeble legal challenge to Queensland Labor’s win in Chatsworth at the March state election died its inevitable death when the Queensland Supreme Court brought down its ruling on Thursday. A smaller than average 14 errors were identified into the count, the effect of which when rectified was to increase Labor’s margin from 74 votes to 85. There were a grand total of two cases of double voting, both involving confused elderly citizens. Antony Green offers some commentary on the judgement, which stands as a heartening confirmation of the integrity of Australia’s electoral processes.
• With New South Wales state Labor member Phil Koperberg indicating he is bitterly disappointed with politics and might not go the distance, Antony Green weighs in with an overview of his electorate of Blue Mountains. It notes that Kerry Bartlett, who lost the corresponding federal seat of Macquarie to Koperberg’s predecessor Bob Debus in 2007, has been mentioned as a potential Liberal candidate.
• Alex Sinnott of the Warrnambool Standard reports that Liberal preselection candidates for the Victorian state upper house region of Western Victoria include incumbent David Koch, former police sergeant, anti-corruption campaigner and Wannon aspirant Simon Illingworth, former Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, Colac businessman Richard Riordan and Daylesford real estate agent Paul Johnson. Another incumbent, John Vogels, is retiring. The coalition agreement gives the Liberals the top two positions on a joint ticket, with the Nationals taking the third.
• Anna Caldwell of the Courier-Mail reports a private members’ bill sponsored by independent Nicklin MP Peter Wellington to introduce fixed three-year terms has been voted down by both government and opposition. The former wants the matter determined by referendum – Deputy Premier Paul Lucas further says a four-year term would be “more appropriate” as it would “enable necessary planning and implementation time for governments”, which (given the state of play south of the border) makes one doubt the government’s seriousness about seeing reform.
97
Market forces are a system of rationing. Rationing is dividing up the rationed good or service for distribution. In the American system dollars equal treatment. In public healthcare need equals treatment.
GP,
I said “health-care”- not “medical innovation and technology”.
They can be very different things. In America, they certainly are…
No 98
ShowsOn, considering the poor depth (i.e. braindead union lackeys) on your back bench I don’t think centrally planned preselections are necessarily better. There is some success on the front bench, but hardly noteworthy.
As for Dennis Jensen, he is no wackaloon. Of course, a wackaloon by your definition is anyone who disagrees with your perniciously self-important world-view.
[ShowsOn, in a mostly privatised system like the US it doesn’t make sense to say that healthcare is “rationed”.]
It certainly DOES make says to say that healthcare is rationed in the United States. People who can afford it get it, and people who can’t afford it DON’T get it. The richest people get access to the best specialist doctors, poorer people who can’t afford the best insurance plans get access to whoever the insurer sends them to.
THAT is a perfect example of a system of rationing, away from poor people and towards rich people.
[Healthcare is provided according to ordinary market forces.]
Which means some of the sickest people with the most dire health circumstances don’t get adequate coverage because they are poor. Again, this is RATIONING.
[I agree that poor coverage is a problem, but it is a nonsense to say that healthcare is rationed in the US.]
WAKE UP G.P.! Not providing universal coverage IS A FORM OF RATIONING!
[Government systems have rationing due to limited public resources, hence endless waiting lists.]
And I am NOT disputing this, but the U.S. system has the WORST form of rationing! Poor people DON’T GET ACCESS!
Rationing health care based on financial circumstances is the most morally reprehensible form of rationing devised.
Saying that someone can’t have an operation because they don’t have insurance, or the right type of health insurance betrays the basic principle of liberalism that all people are morally equal.
1. Dennis Jensen is a wackaloon
2. Crikey Blogs are borked!
GP,
Where’s the actual evidence that America leads the world in medical innovation and technology?
As for fairness… In Australia patients have a choice – wait in line for care in the public system, or pay for private care and get it immediately. In the US patients have a choice – don’t get care at all, or pay for private care delivered at various levels of quality depending on which insurer you pay and how much.
Actually, health-care isn’t actually rationed in the US…
It’s just withheld. Rationing indicates that supply is the issue, while withholding can happen for any reason ➡ including puerile profit-chasing ideology.
hmmm seems that just Pollbludger is borked. Someone played around with the database.
Two “actuallys” in one sentence. Dreadful!
[Where’s the actual evidence that America leads the world in medical innovation and technology?]
http://views.washingtonpost.com/healthcarerx/panelists/2009/06/right-brennan.html
No 107
Inevitably supply will become an issue in a universal system because there’s only so much money that can be thrown around by a government with $12 trillion of debt.
108
Parliaments and Electoral Commissions are back.
[ShowsOn, considering the poor depth (i.e. braindead union lackeys) on your back bench I don’t think centrally planned preselections are necessarily better.]
Yeah, Mark Dreyfus Q.C. and Dr Mike Kelly are simply union hacks. You don’t realise the scale of the clean out Labor achieved in 2007, and is going to do the same thing again at the next election thanks to well timed retirements.
[Where’s the actual evidence that America leads the world in medical innovation and technology?]
I think he meant medical technology, and he is right.
But having good drug companies, hospitals, and medical research is only ONE part of having a good health care system. The fact the U.S. doesn’t have universal coverage makes it an abject failure.
[Inevitably supply will become an issue in a universal system because there’s only so much money that can be thrown around by a government with $12 trillion of debt.]
You are completely ignoring the fact that their healthcare system is a DRAIN on the economy. They spend 16% of GDP on health, but only have 70% coverage. We spend 9% of GDP and have 100% coverage.
Their healthcare system is HOLDING BACK their economy by leaving a whole section of the populace sick.
[You are completely ignoring the fact that their healthcare system is a DRAIN on the economy.]
It may well be. The problem is, egregious levels of government debt are also a drain on the economy by virtue of the additional taxation required to service it.
Well he’s right, of course. The use of Keynesian counter-cyclical spending during this crisis has been a disaster for economic theory, namely Hayek-Friedman-Davidson-Kates-IPA economic theory, which has been dominant since the Thatcher-Reagan era. It has on the other hand been a great triumph for economic practice, in which activist politicians like Rudd have ignored the dominant academic theory and done the right thing, quickly and effectively, thus saving us all from catastrophe.
116
Here here!
[The problem is, egregious levels of government debt are also a drain on the economy by virtue of the additional taxation required to service it.]
You’ve got this backwards. The massive U.S. debt was caused by Bush signing tax cuts that put the economy into a massive deficit.
No 118
No ShowsOn, that completely ignores the two wars he waged and Obama’s trillion dollar stimulus.
No 116
Rudd is only looking good because the underlying fiscal position he had going into the crisis, created by Howard, was far better than any other economy in the world. For other developed countries already saddled with enormous debt, the enormous Keynesian spendathons are only outclassed by their enormous stupidity.
[No ShowsOn, that completely ignores the two wars he waged and Obama’s trillion dollar stimulus.]
Well that just makes Bush worse, he cut taxes at a time of war, i.e. couldn’t even bring himself to ask the U.S. populace to make a sacrifice.
Obama’s stimulus was a ONE OFF temporary spend, it wasn’t permanent like the Bush tax cuts, which is the real thing that screwed their budget.
And if you are going to bring up the bank bail out (TARP), that $700 billion payment was BUSH policy that he signed into law.
[Obama’s stimulus was a ONE OFF temporary spend, it wasn’t permanent like the Bush tax cuts]
This is just idiocy. As I’ve said time and time again, tax cuts are never permanent as evidenced by the Obama administration’s rapid propensity to increase them.
119
The deficit is mainly the result of the tax cuts. Remember that Bush (Jnr) inherited a surplus.
[Rudd is only looking good because the underlying fiscal position he had going into the crisis, created by Howard, was far better than any other economy in the world.]
Well this is partly true, the budget was in a $1.5 billion structural deficit by January 2007. But we know it is hard for you to admit that Howard spent too much in his last two terms.
[This is just idiocy. As I’ve said time and time again, tax cuts are never permanent as evidenced by the Obama administration’s rapid propensity to increase them.]
Of course tax cuts are permanent! They apply every year! Spending a sum of money isn’t permanent. Obama isn’t going to make another stimulus spend every year.
No 124
The budget was not in structural deficit at the time. This is just a lovely piece of historical revisionism on the part of Rudd. All analysts, commentators, the RBA and the treasury all agreed that the budget was in good order.
No 125
ShowsOn, tax cuts are not permanent. A government can adjust tax rates at any time.
[The budget was not in structural deficit at the time.]
Yes it was, it was kept in surplus by higher than expected taxation receipts. As soon as those tax receipts vanished, the budget was in deficit without an extra cent of spending.
[This is just a lovely piece of historical revisionism on the part of Rudd. ]
Wrong. You just can’t handle the fact the budget was in structural deficit! Get over it! Howard spent too much in his final term, accept it and then learn from it.
[All analysts, commentators, the RBA and the treasury all agreed that the budget was in good order.]
LOL! You can’t handle FACTS.
127
In theory, yes
in practice, political suicide surely.
Hence it is viewed as permanent.
No 128
ShowsOn, find me one piece of advice from Treasury or the RBA between 2003 and 2007 that warned that the budget was in structural deficit? Something. You won’t find anything. There was universal agreement that the budget was fine. It was, in fact, the envy of the world. And still is.
But GP, if Howard/Costello had carried on as they had been as the GFC developed, we would have been toast.
To save things they would have to have done exactly as Labor did ➡ quickly build an interest rate buffer, so that large drops can be made yet leaving the rate still comparatively attractive internationally; then pump in stimulus spending instead of wasteful & inefficient tax cuts.
If they had rammed through draconian IR policies, while slashing spending and tax rates, then Australia would still have been setting world economic records- just in completely the wrong direction.
[ShowsOn, tax cuts are not permanent. A government can adjust tax rates at any time.]
Oh OK, so when Turnbull called for “permanent tax cuts” as the best form of stimulus he was just lying. His argument was that people need the promise of money in their hand in the future in order to encourage them to spend. But now you are saying that that was just a lie.
[Now we know, and there is a very large body of evidence from around the world, that the most effective fiscal stimulus in a time like this are permanent tax cuts – they’ve been recommended in many parts of the world and there’s a lot of evidence to support that,]
http://www.liberal.org.au/news.php?Id=2481
We now know that if Turnbull is ever elected he will lie about making tax cuts permanent, but they will actually be temporary.
Thanks for revealing how devious Turnbull is G.P.
[No ShowsOn, that completely ignores the two wars he waged and Obama’s trillion dollar stimulus.]
Shouldn’t that be BUSH’S trillion dollar stimulus?
Bush Stimulus Package
July 23, 2009
By Padmini Arhant
Presentation of Bush Stimulus Package details
From: Stimuls Package details – Thanks
Source: http://www.stimuluspackagedetails.com/bush.html
Bush Stimulus Packages
In 2008, the Bush Administration handed out a slew of economic stimulus packages.
Under President George Bush’s administration, the Federal government gave
$29 billion to bail out Bear Stearns,
$178 billion to American taxpayers in the form of economic stimulus checks,
$300 billion to bail out American homeowners,
$200 billion to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,
$150 billion to bailout AIG, and
$700 billion to bail out banks (TARP).
Total Bush Administration Bailout – $1.557 trillion dollars i.e. $1 trillion and $557 billion dollars.
http://padminiarhant.com/?p=2029
[ShowsOn, find me one piece of advice from Treasury or the RBA between 2003 and 2007 that warned that the budget was in structural deficit?]
G.P., find me one piece of evidence from this year that the budget wasn’t in structural deficit when John Howard was still Prime Minster.
You can’t do it, because you are just wrong, you are just arguing against a fact because you want to believe that Liberals never spend too much.
[There was universal agreement that the budget was fine. It was, in fact, the envy of the world. And still is.]
Yes, the budget is fine thanks to the stimulus spending. We now know that if there was no stimulus spending in the last year the Australian economy would’ve contracted by 1.3%, which would’ve resulted in a much larger increase in unemployment.
One of the many problems with the US health system is its cost to employers. Something I would have though GP would oppose?
It is true the economy was in good shape during Howard/Costello years; good enough to support massive pork BBQs every three years, as they spent our money buying office. In fact, it was in such good shape that we only needed to divert the pork into productive investment for two years and it was enough to get us through the GFC.
The really debatable bit is whether you can say that the good economy was due to Howard and Costello. One aspect was – government finance was put in order via the GST, which was sensible. Banking regulation was the fruit of both sides efforts; both Keating and Howard added several good reforms. But the general economy was reformed under Hawke and Keating; productivity went backwards under the Liberals later years.
Anyway its an academic debate at this point. On these poll numbers you will see a very pliable opposition negotiating anything in the Senate, anxious to avoid a DD at all costs. Even allowing for MOE in the poll, this would work out at no better than a 59/41 2PP result, and surely spell annihilation for the coalition at any election in 2009.
[http://views.washingtonpost.com/healthcarerx/panelists/2009/06/right-brennan.html]
GP, that’s not evidence. Indeed, note the one comment at the bottom of the article. All the article shows is a particular pharmaceutical company pushing a barrow to its own ends.
ShowsOn, I’d be happy to accept the assertion if decent evidence (which would be a study comparing the amount of productive medical research done by various countries). That might exist, but I haven’t been able to find it.
Anyway, it’s largely irrelevant to the discussion of a good public health system.
Dr Richard Denniss from the Australia Institute said at the Senate Hearing that: “the level of debt for Australia is so low, you basically can spend any amount you like…….. the trick is for us to create and save jobs as much and as quick as possible” (something like that).
Is this Herr Doktor a Labor hack? If not, give him a medal.
Generic Person
There is only one way to judge the effectiveness of a health care system over a population and that is to look at to look at life expectancy, the rest is just empty air arguments. The US rates very poorly.
Regarding the USA, one of their main problems is that their stimulus was too small. A lot of money was spent on the bailout but that isn’t the same thing. that money was effectively used paying out past bad debts i.e. making insolvent (bankrupt) banks solvent again. The problem for them is that that money didn’t get spent getting their economy moving – it was just paying back previous debts. So Bush spent nowhere near enough to get an economy that size moving again. So far Obama hasn’t really done enough either.
Alles Herren Doktoren sind Arbeiterpartei hacken!
[ShowsOn, I’d be happy to accept the assertion if decent evidence (which would be a study comparing the amount of productive medical research done by various countries).]
Most of the big drug companies are American. Many of the world’s best medical schools are in the U.S. Many medical researchers from all over the world have are teaching Professors in U.S. medical schools.
That is one area that they do very well at, but I agree that it hasn’t led to a fair health system for Americans. The system they have is morally reprehensible, it treats rich Americans as somehow morally superior to poor Americans.
And infant mortality. Even Cuba has lower infant mortality than the United states!!!!!!!
[Shouldn’t that be BUSH’S trillion dollar stimulus?]
Obama sent a $700 – $800 billion stimulus at the start of this year. It was one of the first things he got through congress.
From memory only 1 Republican voted for it in the House and 3 in the Senate. The one who voted for it in the House is from a heavily Democratic district that voted Republican after a finance scandal.
Unbelievable. Geoff Dixon got $11 million for being CEO of QANTAS for 5 months:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26103370-23349,00.html
What planet are these people on?
GP
If tax cuts are temporary then they can be called time limited rebates with a sunset clause instead of tax cuts. But even that isn’t really adequate. We have had “temporary” and “emergency” rebates and financial assistance for farmers and various non-viable rural industries since I was studying my under-graduate degree. Neither side ever acts to remove them, even though they are a waste of all our taxes.
Why someone can believe that cash subsidies will get pocketed and not spent yet imagine that tax cuts won’t suffer the same fate is beyond me. There is no correlation between lowering taxes and increasing economic growth unless tax rates already exceed 50%. We are well below that tax level hence it is just false.
No 134
ShowsOn thanks for admitting that you could not find one warning or piece of advice indicating that the budget was in structural deficit. I am not wrong at all. If the Government was running structural deficits of the order of billions of dollars, I’m sure the Labor party would have aptly criticised them. The fact is that it wasn’t in structural deficit. The whole argument was manufactured to distract analysis of the fact that the Rudd government had sent the budget into a $58 billion deficit, all as a result of increased spending (Stimpac 1, stimpac 2 + pension increases).
No 145
Qantas is one of the world’s most profitable airlines. Shareholders resoundingly voted in favour of his pay 60/40.
The US ranks 42nd in the world on life expectancy. Down from 11th position 20 years ago. The main reason for this is the number of the population without coverage. Countries with universal health coverage like Australia rank much higher.
ShowsOn 145
Sadly Dixon is on a planet where big business buys influecne with both political parties so that they ensure that governments never change the laws that protect them. They are effctively using shareholder’s cash to bribe politicians to allow them to take larger amounts of shareholder’s cash for themselves. CEO pay is a broken market. Around 8% to 10% of the US bank bailout cash was used to pay bonuses for bankers in failed banks (yes I know that adds to billions).