The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan face-to-face poll (three days old now, but what the hell), conducted over the previous two weekends, has Labor’s lead increasing still further, from 61-39 to 62-38. Labor’s primary vote is up a point to 51.5 per cent the Coalition’s is down one to 32.5 per cent.
Elsewhere:
• The Liberal preselection vote in Peter Costello’s seat of Higgins went according to script, with his former staffer Kelly O’Dwyer defeating Andrew Abercrombie at the final vote by 222 votes to 112. Reports over the past few days suggest O’Dwyer might be off to Canberra sooner than expected. The Prime Minister appears to be wooing Peter Costello with job offers (executive director of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in London being the main tip, according to Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald) so as to afflict the Liberals with another troublesome by-election. Costello did not rule out going out early when he made his surprise retirement announcement in June. Glenn Milne reports such a departure might come soon enough for a by-election to be held on the same day as that for Bradfield.
• Alan Tudge, a former staffer to Brendan Nelson and Alexander Downer, has won the Liberal preselection to succeed Chris Pearce in the eastern Melbourne seat of Aston. Andrew Landeryou of VexNews reports Tudge won the final ballot from Neil Angus, having seen off Nick McGowan, Terry Barnes, Deanne Ryall, James Matheson, Sue McMillan, Mike Kapos, Darren Pearce, Ken Aldred and Michael Flynn at earlier counts.
• Julia Irwin has announced she will retire from her safe Labor western Sydney seat of Fowler at the next election, taking the opportunity to launch a spray about the failings of her party’s power structures (her own success in cornering a safe seat for 11 unproductive years being an evident case in point). Irwin believes the Labor margin in the seat has been “built up” by her own personal qualities and hard work, owing little or nothing to its classic low-income, high-immigration Labor profile. Appropriately enough, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports her departure “threatens to create a factional fight” between the Left, which backs Liverpool mayor Wendy Waller, and the Right, which is pushing the unsuccessful 2004 candidate for Greenway, Ed Husic. Laurie Ferguson, left homeless by the redistribution’s abolition of his inner west electorate of Reid, is said to have “little support” from his own Left faction, and “his career is most likely over”.
• Phillip Coorey further reports that factional disputes in Fowler over control of local branches are echoed in the south coast seat of Throsby, whose disappointing member Jennie George is “contemplating whether to run again”.
• Will David Hawker’s departure from Wannon open an entry for the Nationals? The electorate’s history suggests otherwise, but Alex Sinnott of the Warrnambool Standard reports the party is considering running a candidate for the first time since 1984.
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a decision by the New South Wales Liberal Party to bring forward federal preselections (so they are conducted on recently published draft redistribution boundaries) is likely to secure the positions of Bronwyn Bishop in Mackellar and Philip Ruddock in Berowra. In further exciting news on the Liberal renewal front, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Alby Schultz and Pat Farmer will again seek preselection in their respective seats of Hume and Macarthur. Farmer launched a spray at his constituents on the night of the 2007 federal election for failing to give him the margin he felt he deserved, and has since moved to the expensive north shore suburb of Mosman. Macarthur has been made a notionally marginal Labor seat under the draft redistribution.
• Imre Salusinszky also reports that police sergeant Darren Jameson is favoured to win Liberal preselection in Belinda Neal’s seat of Robertson, notwithstanding that former Liberal member Jim Lloyd is considering a comeback.
• The Liberal National Party’s feeble legal challenge to Queensland Labor’s win in Chatsworth at the March state election died its inevitable death when the Queensland Supreme Court brought down its ruling on Thursday. A smaller than average 14 errors were identified into the count, the effect of which when rectified was to increase Labor’s margin from 74 votes to 85. There were a grand total of two cases of double voting, both involving confused elderly citizens. Antony Green offers some commentary on the judgement, which stands as a heartening confirmation of the integrity of Australia’s electoral processes.
• With New South Wales state Labor member Phil Koperberg indicating he is bitterly disappointed with politics and might not go the distance, Antony Green weighs in with an overview of his electorate of Blue Mountains. It notes that Kerry Bartlett, who lost the corresponding federal seat of Macquarie to Koperberg’s predecessor Bob Debus in 2007, has been mentioned as a potential Liberal candidate.
• Alex Sinnott of the Warrnambool Standard reports that Liberal preselection candidates for the Victorian state upper house region of Western Victoria include incumbent David Koch, former police sergeant, anti-corruption campaigner and Wannon aspirant Simon Illingworth, former Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, Colac businessman Richard Riordan and Daylesford real estate agent Paul Johnson. Another incumbent, John Vogels, is retiring. The coalition agreement gives the Liberals the top two positions on a joint ticket, with the Nationals taking the third.
• Anna Caldwell of the Courier-Mail reports a private members’ bill sponsored by independent Nicklin MP Peter Wellington to introduce fixed three-year terms has been voted down by both government and opposition. The former wants the matter determined by referendum – Deputy Premier Paul Lucas further says a four-year term would be “more appropriate” as it would “enable necessary planning and implementation time for governments”, which (given the state of play south of the border) makes one doubt the government’s seriousness about seeing reform.
I wondered why it was so quiet here today with very few greenies posting. They are all up in Gympie protesting Anna’s dam!!!
-what a strange comment to put on a blog.
William,
Is this the widest margin so far in polling since KR came into power?
The former federal opposition leader, Brendan Nelson, says he will continue to campaign against the Government’s emissions trading scheme during the by-election in his Sydney seat.
Mr Nelson has been appointed as Australia’s Ambassador to the European Communities, Belgium, Luxembourg and NATO.
He will take up the post in February next year when he will be expected to represent the Government’s desire for an emissions trading scheme.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/09/20/2691146.htm?section=justin
-This makes a mockery of his appointment.The duopoly looks after its own.
No 3
turk, the Government new exactly what it was getting when it chose to appoint Nelson. And to be frank, there’s nothing wrong with his position – no final decision should be made until the cessation of the Copenhagen discussions.
No 4
new = knew
turk, the Government new exactly what it was getting when it chose to appoint Nelson.
-jobs for the boys?
And to be frank, there’s nothing wrong with his position – no final decision should be made until the cessation of the Copenhagen discussions.
-Good signal to the world,our ambassador will magically decide come february that he is no longer against the governments emission scheme.
This shows the real level of committment by this government.
GP
No, he is now employed by the government to put their position. His activities will make no difference to the outcome but it does make him look like a fool. He gets a second chance and he blows it, sad really.
Aussieguru @ 2
I think the widest margin was approx. 30 points back in early March 2008. But it is heading back that way under Malco’s dynamic leadership. 🙂
-This makes a mockery of his appointment.The duopoly looks after its own.
-what a strange comment to put on a blog.
[-Good signal to the world,our ambassador will magically decide come february that he is no longer against the governments emission scheme.]
Isn’t Nelson’s position mostly against Australia “going it alone” and the government’s timing (pre Copenhagen), not against an emissions scheme per se?
I think he’s wrong on both counts. The timing is to ensure we have credibility as a participant in any talks (we are the world’s largest polluter per capita, after all). To shilly-shally around waiting for the other nations to dip their toes in the water is the best way to ensure nothing will happen. They can do the same thing to us.
However, I don’t believe he’s a Climate Change denier.
(Please correct me if I’m wrong).
Somewhere in the previous thread, there was some commentary to the effect of Rudd having divise rheteric, but centralist actions. This reminds me of a comment in a nice light article on the political events on 1979 – Thatcher, Deng, Soviet invasion of Afghanastan, papal visit to Poland etc… (in AFR, but orginally in Foreign Policy magazine, and here is their link).
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/06/18/the_great_backlash_1979?page=full
[As with Deng, many commentators did not know quite what to make of Thatcher’s ambitions. After her first year in office, British journalist Hugh Stephenson wrote: “Her rhetoric is radical, even reckless. But from the start her deeds have shown a politician’s instinctive caution.” Stephenson was right, but he and other onlookers didn’t reckon with the intensity of the sentiment behind that rhetoric]
…
[The events of 1979 tell us a great deal about the nature of counterrevolution, which is very important to understand, because we might be living through another one right now. Perhaps the key insight is that though counterrevolutionaries may be reactionaries, they are not mere conservatives. Conservatives aspire to return to the status quo ante. Counterrevolutionaries understand that their revolutionary opponents have changed the rules of the game in fundamental ways and that the reaction must adjust accordingly.]
It was his inability to deal with the internal Coalition politics of the ETS issue that commentators say was a main failing of Nelson’s leadership. One might have thought he would learn from that – that holding an uncompromising hardline position is not what Australians want, Coalition supporters aside. Seems hypocritical for him to accept his assignment to the EU, where he will be not only toeing the Labor government’s line, but spruiking same to the Europeans. What exactly are his principles on this – say one thing to party faithful at home, and another to the world at large? The ETS looks like being the Big Wedge for the Coalition: they’re all over the place!
Rudd is quoted in today’s SMH describing Milne as “The Liberal Party’s journalist of choice”. And how right he is!
Howard for Bradfield?
Paraplegic rats trained to run again
Just heard on 2UE that the “Angry Ant” will be interveiwing “The Posioned Dwarf” on the PM’s use of the “F” word…Should be interesting listening
The ‘Poison Dwarf’, that’s Glenn Milne. Who’s ‘Angry Ant’?
evan, very good that “liberal party journalist of choice” has made it into the popular lexicon. it will difficult for milne to shake this. The ironic thing is that his writings over time have generally helped rather than hindered Rudd. Swearing is not going to do Rudd harm
Dubbs – just heard Milne with Price – hilarious. Milne being pious and saying that Kev’s not what he seems. Same old story he’s been playing for the past 2 years or so.
First phone call he got after the interview was for Kev and against Milne.
Sounds like Price has got a few emails putting the same point of view (including one from my husband who couldn’t resist sticking the boot into Milne).
Milne said he is not the Lib’s journalist of choice because he wrote an article criticising Turnbull last week!! ROFL .
Milne might be the Liberal Party’s journalist of choice but this leak came from the Labor Party, not the Liberals.
The first witness at the economics committee, a Professor Kates, buckets the whole idea of economic stimulus within 60 seconds.
Steve Price is known as “the angry ant”, and his wife works for Joe Hockey.
Price is on the wrong station, the Liberals have all moved over to 2GB!
I’m having trouble understand Prof. Kates – is he saying that unemployment is the only measure of success for stimulus.
If businesses survive because of stimulus I thought that meant more is spread throughout the community with supplies/orders, keeping people in jobs, etc.
Not sure I understand his point of view at the moment.
Well, unemployment soesn’t look like it will hit the levels predicted, so you would have to say the stimulus has been a success so far on that criteria.
[… just heard Milne with Price – hilarious. Milne being pious and saying that Kev’s not what he seems. Same old story he’s been playing for the past 2 years or so.]
Pure laziness on Milne’s part. He can’t give up the old, losing methods. He always tries to drag too much out of his shock-horror tidbits, always looks for the indirect method of bringing Rudd down. To him, a fact is never a fact. It always reveals something else, something darker an altogether more sinister about his target. These tactics didn’t work for him before, and they won’t this time.
We all swear in private conversations and talk diplomatically in public. Language is used appropriate to the environment in which the speaker finds himself. Milne’s story only goes to show Rudd is a normal person. Oh, and that he doesn’t like parliamentary rorters and whingers.
Cuppa, Steve Price is the morning presenter on Sydney’s 2UE, he took over from the Golden Tonsils. He is a diminutive chap whose facial expression appears as through he has just tasted a s**t sambo….He was not highly revered by the Golden Tonsils who on separate occassions referred to his collegue as “The Angry Ant”, “The Risible Dwarf”, “Weasel” and wait for it “The Poison Dwarf”..I guess that is why Steve and Glenn get on so well, as they have both been called the same derisive moniker…Steve was the radio journo who was in the Qantas Club Lounge and overheard Peter Garrets’ mischievous remark about not honouring the then oppositions election promises (in 2007), and reported it as fact. As BH noted his wife works for Sloppy Joe…
BTW BB – someone emailed in to mention Milne’s drunken punchup episode.
Milne said he no longer drinks, at all.
[Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a decision by the state council and convention of the New South Wales Liberal Party to bring forward federal preselections so they are conducted on recently published draft redistribution boundaries is likely to secure preselection for Bronwyn Bishop in Mackellar and Philip Ruddock in Berowra.]
Good morning class. Now, what is wrong with this sentence? The answer is that the first 40 words, all the way down to “boundaries”, appears to have a particular meaning, and it’s only when you get to “boundaries” that you realise that in fact it has a different meaning, and you have to go back to the start to make sense of it.
At first read, the sentence appears to mean this:
“Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports [on] a decision by the state council and convention of the New South Wales Liberal Party to bring forward federal preselections so they are conducted on recently published draft redistribution boundaries.”
The “on” in square brackets isn’t there, but most readers will unconsciously insert it to make sense of what they are reading.
But when you get to what should be the end of the sentence, at “boundaries”, you find that it’s not the end at all. It’s followed by “is likely to secure preselection for Bronwyn Bishop in Mackellar and Philip Ruddock in Berowra.”
So then you have to read the sentence again to make sense of it. In fact what the sentence means is:
“Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports [that] a decision by the state council and convention of the New South Wales Liberal Party to bring forward federal preselections so they are conducted on recently published draft redistribution boundaries is likely to secure preselection for Bronwyn Bishop in Mackellar and Philip Ruddock in Berowra.”
The “that” in square brackets is what makes the sentence make sense, and if it had been actually written rather than left for the reader to infer, there would have been no problem. This is called the “garden path” error. The reader is led a long way up the garden path, thinking they are reading one sentence, before they get to the point where they realise they are wrong, and they have to go back up the garden path to find out what they are actually reading.
By the way, it’s Kevin Rudd’s birthday. I hope you have all sent him a nice card and a book voucher.
Go get ‘im Douggie Cameron – he’s not scared to ‘bell’ and economist.
[Milne said he no longer drinks, at all.]
So he is a reformed drunk. That explains a lot.
[So he is a reformed drunk. That explains a lot.]
Yes. His biggest point to Price was that Rudd is not to fit to lead us because he swears. Of course, he said John Howard having perfect manners and never allowing himself to show anger or swear. So the pillar of virtue (John Howard) is the standard by which we should all live.
I thought the best part of Milne having to speak to Price is that Milne felt he had to justify his article. He must have copped heaps of flak about it. Beautiful justice, eh!!
Thanks for that Dubbs. The Price is Wrong eh?
Seems that being an angry ant is part of the job description for a talkback jock. I don’t listen to any talkback these days, including that on ABC, though I did when I was younger and more politically naive. It’s little more than right-wing crazies speaking TO and FOR right wing crazies. Too incestuous; and these are the types who complain that the media is biased in favour of Labor. Hellllo!
[By the way, it’s Kevin Rudd’s birthday. I hope you have all sent him a nice card and a book voucher.]
Aren’t we allowed to choose the book?
No, he might tell you to f off if you get it wrong!
Glen Milne = Liberal party gutter journalist of choice is more appropriate. Our PM was being too polite to Milne, at least publicly. 😉
Cuppa – I hear Price for 1 hr but it is interesting that he allows opposite views to his to be heard. It’s a wide cross-section because his spread is across the rural/coastal areas through to Qld so you can get an idea of what people are thinking.
This morning his first spleen vent was about Rudd and swearing. You can always tell if he doesn’t get the reaction he wants because he stops talking about it quickly. Hence I know the public are not stupid. Does one’s heart good to realise that sometimes.
Thanks for that, Psephos. Thank Kevin I’m not alone in my campaign to stamp out the bad use of grammar in the media. And by politicians.
The demise of Media Watch, particularly of the format in which Stuart Littlemore ran it, has clearly led to a drastic decline in the quality of English expression exercised by journalists in Australia. Ok, I have no actual evidence for that, but I’d like to see the return of a program with the purpose of lambasting the sloppy expression prevalent in all of our media.
[So the pillar of virtue (John Howard) is the standard by which we should all live.]
Milne’s article in the OO this morning re. Labor’s breakup of Telstra is – when you read between the lines – along the same theme. It basically posits that when Howard lost office Telstra was in the ideal form, the perfect arrangement and balance of shareholder interests, business apportionment and management. Therefore, any change is damaging, by definition.
The key here is that the conservatives do not want Rudd to govern. He may have won the election, but governing as a result of the win is an entirely different proposition. This is because Rudd is “not the person he seems to be and therefore won the election illegitimately, in that he fooled the people by presenting a false impression.
Rudd’s job in government is thus not to rock the boat, nor alter any of the fine checks and balances that Howard set up so that, when the Liberals regain power in the near future, as little damage as possible will need to be fixed. A lick of paint here, a chip on a bench sanded back and re-varnished there, the odd cobweb cleared away and things will be back to normal. About what you’d expect when you’d had a bunch of rowdy renters with no taste or understanding of decor looking after your home while you were overseas. Mow the lawns, pay the bills… and don’t wreck the joint. We’ll be back soon. Milne accuses Rudd of wanting to change Telstra, and with it the telecommunications environment of the country. What a cheek that phoney has to think he’s got the right to alter anything!
Just on Milne – didn’t he have a bit of an on-stage encounter a few years ago (a la Kanye West)? And he lectures others on how to behave?
And over at my blog I have likened the latest poll to the tractor beam on the Liberalprise being out of order. Capt Turnbull needs to get it fixed.
[he said John Howard having perfect manners and never allowing himself to show anger or swear. So the pillar of virtue (John Howard) is the standard by which we should all live.]
What is it with these people and holding onto the past? … Ok, rhetorical question; they’re conservatives – holding onto the past is what they do.
They’ll have to eventually come to grips with the fact that Howard is now The Past. Since his retirement – his forced retirement, hehehe – Howard is irrelevant to the current state-of-play. The man to compare Kevin Rudd with is not his defeated former rival, it’s his current, almost-defeated rival, Turnbull. And if we’re to compare Rudd’s bad temper with Turnbull’s, Rudd might very well come second place to Turnbull of the Terrifying Temper Tantrums. The Australian, 25 August 2008 …
[“Malcolm Turnbull was this utter force of nature so when you’re on the wrong end of Malcolm it’s terrifying, the thunder in the face and often the quite spontaneous, even over the top tongue lashing,” Tim Costello says.]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24237106-601,00.html
Tim Costello, as readers will know, is the brother of Peter.
[Rudd is “not the person he seems to be and therefore won the election illegitimately, in that he fooled the people by presenting a false impression.]
Exactly BB – pushed that heavily this a.m. Was anyone game enough to look at how many comments he got to his articles yesterday?
I reckon he’s smarting from Rudd’s comment “Lib’s journalist of choice” . He should read some of yours and Political Sword’s pieces about him. He’d surely have no confidence left to ever write another line and we could all benefit from that.
This is a fair enough decision by Penny Wong but it also means that the big emitters like Australia the have to make a lot bigger cuts to compensate for the developing world’s increasing emissions. If they do that, we’ve done the right thing. But our 5-25% target shows that we won’t.
I wonder how history will view the current generation of political leaders actions on AGW.
[DEVELOPING nations can continue to increase their greenhouse gas emissions under a compromise plan outlined by Australia to break deadlocked climate change talks.
Climate Change Minister Penny Wong today conceded the world could not tell countries to “stay poor”, spruiking her plan that would allow developing counties to opt out of binding, economy wide emission-reduction targets as the best chance of reaching a deal. ]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26102733-601,00.html
BH, thanks for that explanation. Sounds like a reliable barometer: if Price sets out to make an issue of something, then quickly goes quiet about it, he’s flunked at his endeavour. Like this one, glad to hear.
Decent of Kev and Penny to phone from the US to offer Robb support
[Mr Robb says he feels “in a lot better frame of mind” since he went public and says colleagues on both sides of politics have been fantastic.
He has received phone calls from Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and his political adversary Climate Change Minister Penny Wong, as well as messages of support from those in his own party.
“It’s been a humbling experience really,” he said. ]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/09/21/2691692.htm
News from Europe:
Greek socialists to win:
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/09/18/general-eu-greece-elections-last-polls_6903931.html
Portuguese socialists may hang on:
http://www.worldbulletin.net/news_detail.php?id=46886
German SPD catching up but still facing defeat:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=a2QG73dxY7zg
Psephos, I’ll make an effort to get my head around #27 when time allows. Suffice to say that the post was written in very great haste.
Diogs,
An interesting aspect to that article is that Fielding is shuffling to get on board.
“Family First Senator Steve Fielding, who has raised doubts about the science of climate change, today praised the plan to allow greater flexibility to developing nations warning Australia needed to approach the debate in a way that was less “intimidating” for new players. ”
Too bad the Greens are determined to cement their irrelevance with Brown’s hysterically unhelpful comments.
[Good morning class. Now, what is wrong with this sentence? ]
I think you’d enjoy The Language Instinct by Steven Pinker. It has been reissued as a $9.95 Popular Penguins edition:
http://www.penguin.com.au/lookinside/spotlight.cfm?SBN=9780141037653&Page=Extract
Shaun Micallef uses a lot of garden path statements in his comedy acts. This is the best I could find quickly on YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzOuPrke934
[German SPD catching up but still facing defeat:]
If they are catching up, doesn’t that make another Grand Coalition more likely?
[Australia needed to approach the debate in a way that was less “intimidating” for new players. ”]
I think Fielding meant less intimidating for him.
GG
Just been reading the same story on ninemsn. They say Fielding may back it even ;)[Family First senator Steve Fielding, who doubts the science of climate change, says he may back an Australian government plan to let developing countries propose their own cuts to carbon emissions.
Senator Steve Fielding said Senator Wong’s proposal had some merit.
“I think we should wait until Copenhagen, and maybe we should be looking at those countries that need extra help,” he told ABC Television on Monday.]
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/865596/wong-proposes-compromise-deal-on-climate
GG
Sadly, I have to agree with Fielding on this one and disagree with Brown, who seems to be out of touch with what most environmentalists think about how to manage the problem of developing countries emissions.