Essential Research: 58-42

The latest weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 58-42, down from 60-40 last week and 62-38 the week before. Also featured are yet more questions on the global financial crisis and one on the recent activities of Peter Costello, of which most respondents take a dim view. Also:

• The government’s second go at the Commonwealth Electoral Amendment (Political Donations and Other Measures) Bill passed the House of Representatives yesterday. Daryl Melham, Labor’s member for Banks and chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, had some harsh words during the debate for Family First Senator Steve Fielding, who joined with the Coalition to reject the earlier version of the bill in the Senate last week.

• The redistribution of Tasmanian electorates (which uniquely applies to both federal and state elections) has been finalised, with only minor amendments to the boundaries as originally proposed. These have very slightly weakened Labor’s position in both Braddon and Franklin. More from Antony Green.

• The Electoral Commissioner has determined quotas for Queensland and New South Wales, the first stage in the redistributions that will give a new seat to the first at the expense of the second.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,741 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42”

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  1. [I have no idea why Fielding has so much against unions. Unions have helped families by getting sick pay, holiday pay, overtime and Sunday penalties, bereavement leave, and with Labor governments superannuation, Medicare, and in a year or so paid maternity leave.]

    Don’t forget the 8 hour working day, better working conditions (actual physical condition and safety of the workplace) and old age and disability pensions, a century ago.

    I’ll always be thankful for what the unions have done for Australians.

  2. I’m biased on this issue, but The Greens in the past few weeks have demonstrated they’re pretty clever, capable and far more than a bunch of single-issue hippie ferals.

    It’d be pretty hard to argue against that.

  3. Seems they are going to bugger the IR bills up. Rudd can either plan for a DD or plan to fix it all up after the next election with the Greens pushing for even more generous terms.

    Unions will be furious is this doesn’t get through and egging a DD. However the corrupt media will do their darnedest to undermine the govt before then.

    If I were a Union in SA I would be going about Xenophon’s electorate smearing his name from dawn to dusk. The enemy of the people just when they needed protection.

  4. [The Greens in the past few weeks have demonstrated they’re pretty clever, capable and far more than a bunch of single-issue hippie ferals.]

    Sounds like history repeating itself. People had this attitude toward Labor when they first emerged as a political party.

  5. [I’m biased on this issue, but The Greens in the past few weeks have demonstrated they’re pretty clever, capable and far more than a bunch of single-issue hippie ferals.]
    Totally. They have been the most sensible of the cross benchers all year.

  6. [Why doesn’t the guy on NewsRadio have the amendments? All he needs is a computer with an internet connection.]

    cos erica keeps amending the amendments

  7. [AHH I LOST MY FEED.]
    Don’t you have an AM radio?

    Erica is just clarifying which amendments the opposition is opposing so the clerk knows what this division is on.

  8. [I reckon we’re the saddest bunch of people in the country at the moment.]

    [AHH I LOST MY FEED.]

    A nice sequence there.

  9. Ercica has just said he would oppose some amendments
    yet 30 mins ago he agreed to some

    the libs dont even know what they are opposing now

  10. Jesus. Can’t wait for Labor and the Greens to be the major parties. One in the Senate the other in the HOR.

    Fielding has an excuse, he is obviously pig ignorant and his instincts when he is confused seem to be to follow the Libs.

    Well it is beginning to seem that the Senate is stuffed for the Govt. Now that we have seen how the two independents intend to behave.

    Willing to to trash economic bills, IR bills and tax/health bills.

    Wonder if the SA will still kiss their white knight while he is kicking them in the face? Sheesh. Glad I no longer have to worry jobs and bills.

  11. I wish I could be part of the parliamentary broadcasting team. The major innovation I could bring is giving all Senators nicknames.

  12. It would be one thing to be one of the Senators designated by a party to be the main representative in the chamber e.g. Abetz or Ludwig/Evans, but it would be something else to be one of the coalition senators sitting behind Abetz. You’d think they might pop off to their office. I guess they might need one to deliver messages but still.

  13. Righto. Keenan on Lateline. I really don’t get this. Or perhaps I do. What the hell is he smiling about?

    I am stunned that Family First WAFUQM, would be unaware that adolescents are drinking full spirit alcohol, disguised as a lolly pop, the name speaks for itself, with absolutely no idea of what they are drinking and doing to themselves.

    I understand that the price of Alcopop will drop from five to two dollars, no idea of quantum, but I bet it is cheaper to buy them than it is to be say, orange juice, for one.

    Fantastic work, Fielding. What the far out, Dope!!!

    Having lost that one for our kids, do Fielding and the Opposition really believe they would be on a winner should they oppose Labor’s fair work deal?

    One more move, in the absolutely wrong direction, the Opposition is going to find itself in a great deal of bother.

    That will be it. Double Dissolution.

    And never mind the drops in the polling, the moment the old work horse Choices, rears its loser’s head, the Opposition will be kicked so far in the teeth they won’t get up for a further decade, notwithstanding all the difficulties we as a nation and a world, face.

  14. [I understand that the price of Alcopop will drop from five to two dollars, ]
    Are you sure it will be that much? I think they will drop by $1 to $2 depending on the exact strength.

  15. Totally! However, we will be accused by The Australian of being amateurs, because they have a shiny new blog on parliament:
    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/houserules/index.php/theaustralian/comments/speculation_of_double_dissolution_poll/

    It is so good that they don’t even know the numbers for a Senate quota:
    [With the entire Senate up for grabs, the quota needed for election would be halved from 16.7 per cent of the vote to 8.4.]
    A quota is actually 14.3% (100 divided by 7 – that is one more than the number of quotas) for a half senate election, and 7.7% for a full Senate election.

    The Australian KNOWS quotas, the same way they KNOW about opinion polling.

  16. [WTF why is Senator Fisher asking the same question a million times.]
    Because it seems she still thinks she works for Business S.A., the biggest S.A. Business Union.

  17. [WTF why is Senator Fisher asking the same question a million times.]

    Perhaps they need to kill some time while there are negotiations going on?

  18. No, she is just being an idiot wasting the Senate’s time.

    She wants to get the Government to ‘admit’ that having a fair I.R. system means some people will lose their jobs.

    Well if some people have a job because they are being unfairly treated, then it doesn’t seem to be a job worth having. They should work somewhere else until those companies are willing to be FAIR.

  19. I wonder if there will be a Q.T. in the House tomorrow? Normally there isn’t, but 1) the government may want to attack the opposition for continuing to support WorkChoices 2) There will very likely be speeches by Rudd and Turnbull related to the death of another solider in Afghanistan.

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