Morgan: 60.5-39.5

Morgan’s latest polling release covers 955 respondents from last weekend’s face-to-face surveys, and shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 61.5-38.5 to 60.5-39.5. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 50.5 per cent, and the Coalition’s is up 1.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent. On top of which:

• Silly Steve Fielding joined with the Coalition on Wednesday to vote down government electoral reforms that would tie public funding for election candidates to their electoral expenditure, lower the threshold for disclosure of donations to $1000 from $10,000 (which the Howard government used its Senate majority to jack it up to), ban foreign donations and anonymous donations of over $50, and require parties to disclose donations every six months rather than annually. The sticking point is Fielding’s insistence that the government also arbitrarily cap public funding to political parties at $10 million. The bill was reintroduced to the House yesterday.

• Submissions have been published in response to the federal government’s green paper on donations, funding and expenditure.

• Responding to mounting speculation she will take on Don Randall in Canning at the next federal election, senior Gallop/Carpenter government minister Alannah MacTiernan tells The West Australian: “It’s something that I’d consider but it’s far too early. The election is a long way away and it’s not something a decision can be made on until early next year.”

• The South Australian Liberals have picked a new candidate for the state seat of Mawson to replace former Kingston MHR Kym Richardson, who was charged in December with attempting to pervert the course of justice by impersonating a police officer. Matthew Donovan, described by the local Southern Times Messenger newspaper as a “self-employed importer and property developer”, won preselection ahead of Heidi Harris, adviser to Shadow Transport Minister Duncan McFetridge and unsuccessful candidate for federal preselection in Mayo; Heidi Greaves, public servant, former Onkaparinga councillor and unsuccessful candidate for Elder; and Alana Sparrow, Housing Industry Association lawyer and former media adviser to Richardson.

• The Daily Telegraph reports that NSW Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell “will hire a team of constitutional lawyers to explore recall provisions to end fixed four-year terms for incompetent governments”. This would involve provisions for the Governor to “sack a corrupt or useless government” if called on to do so by public petitions, presumably in a fashion similar to that which brought Arnold Schwarzenegger to power in California. UPDATE: More from a skeptical Imre Salusinszky at The Australian.

• Chris Back this week took his place in the Senate, filling the vacancy created by the departure of Western Australian Liberal Chris Ellison.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,149 thoughts on “Morgan: 60.5-39.5”

Comments Page 23 of 23
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  1. Shows

    No No No

    Analyse the data, not your pet theorems.

    then come back with a reasoned ragument why people ARE better off not voting

  2. How can the answer to the question “how many votes are just donkey votes” be “No”?

    then come back with a reasoned ragument why people ARE better off not voting

    Do you decide what clothes other people wear, or what cars they drive? Whenever you start deciding what is best for other people you are prosecuting a weak argument.

    because they voted (in a conscience vote) to overturn the Northern Territory act which decriminalised assisted suicide.

    I think that was the correct decision. Assisted suicide happens, but it is best for patients, their families and Drs to determine the circumstances. I don’t think it is a moral issue that can be solved with legislation. Just as there is no legislation that unequivocally determines when life starts.

  3. Xenophon, the less said the better. A bad smell in the Senate, you just don’t know which side it is going waft to from one day to the next. He is all keen on banning pokies but it seems alcohol dressed up as soft drink to appeal to youngsters is well, ok. Curious set of morals there.

    Brown should know better. Maybe he is tossing a tantrum because he wasn’t able to blackmail the government this time around and, so decides to say stuff the teenagers, give them drinks that they can scoff down without it really tasting like hard drink.

    And Brown is the sane one amongst the Greens. Stuff knows what they will do when he is goine.

  4. i’m surprised no one here has commented on just how painful Abbott’s interview on lateline is, he certainly has’nt improved during his time in the shadows.

  5. then come back with a reasoned ragument why people ARE better off not voting

    Do you decide what clothes other people wear, or what cars they drive? Whenever you start deciding what is best for other people you are prosecuting a weak argument.

    Before typing pot.kettle.black

    may I remind you I said analyse the data!!

    until that point is reached you are simply touting your theorems.

    BTW you may find a paretto effect,which one could conclude that 80% of the PopN agree with compulsory voting
    🙂

  6. Assisted suicide happens, but it is best for patients, their families and Drs to determine the circumstances.

    That means that something remains illegal, but everyone agrees not to notice when the law is broken. I don’t think the law can operate on that principle.

  7. ShowsON

    If you think that then why do you think the overturning was a correct decision? The legislation eliminates the ability of patients, families etc to “determine the circumstances”. Doctors are obliged to do what they can to sustain life, not end it. They can only withdraw life support, not end life. The NT legislation would have permited that decision, but the overturning denied it. I think the overturning was a bad mistake, provoked by a scare campaign from various conservative religeous groups that are not ethicists at all.

    For a good read on this topic I’d recommend Peter Singer’s “Rethinking Life and Death”. You don’t have to agree with Singer, but he asks some challenging questions of current thinking.

  8. It seems Mr X WILL pass the Alcopops legislation after all.

    A CRUCIAL crossbench senator has indicated he is inclined to pass the federal government’s tax hike on alcopops.

    Independent Senator Nick Xenophon said he had been swayed by the arguments of doctors’ groups that the tax increase would help combat binge drinking.

    Senator Xenophon indicated he would seek to amend the bills, which are being debated in the Senate tonight.

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,25198225-5005361,00.html

  9. OK, you didn’t understand my point.

    You are saying that it is best for EVERYONE to go to the polling place on election day. That that is better than ANY other possible thing they could do on that day.

    I am saying that everyone should be able to decide what they want to do. Some people will race out and vote ASAP, others will stay home, or go to a movie, or take their kid’s to sport, or do the shopping, or wash the car.

    I am up to letting people decide what they would prefer to do, you seem to think that YOUR opinion in determining what is most important on election day should apply to everyone else. I just can’t agree with shoving my opinion onto everyone else who sees the world differently to me.

    This is kind of like Berlin’s value pluralism, you are saying that participation in democracy by voting should trump other values, whereas I am saying that people should decide how important they think exercising that right is.

  10. That means that something remains illegal, but everyone agrees not to notice when the law is broken. I don’t think the law can operate on that principle.

    Like people failing to mark a ballot in a way that is valid? 😀

  11. Shows
    my point is that the VALUE of having a vote trumps every other consideration
    To my way of thinking a vote is an inalienable right that a citizen,if needs be, be forced to exercise.

    sidepoint, from my own experience people such as indigene’s who only relatively recently gained the vote value it highly.

    One could say it validates our role in society

  12. give up Frank, have you ever felt you’ve been run over by a steamroller? i’m just breaking into this scintilating discussion to say good night all 🙂

  13. SteveK 961, no not that desperate at all, plenty to do (not involving the TV that is) but TV wise, not a thing worth while at all save UB tonight 😉

  14. my point is that the VALUE of having a vote trumps every other consideration

    Maybe for you, but other people couldn’t careless. Being part of a democracy means respecting the right of some people to just not give a damn.

    To my way of thinking a vote is an inalienable right that a citizen,if needs be, be forced to exercise.

    How can it be a right if someone is FORCED to exercise it! That just sounds like a contradiction in terms.

  15. If you think that then why do you think the overturning was a correct decision?

    Because I’m not sure that a parliament can make decisions that families, Drs and patients can’t in a way that is better for the patient and family.

  16. How can it be a right if someone is FORCED to exercise it! That just sounds like a contradiction in terms.

    It’s the basis of most laws

    ps you conveniently forgot to include “if needs be”

  17. Re 1003,

    bob1234
    Posted Monday, March 16, 2009 at 9:22 pm | Permalink
    If you go to a polling booth, have your name crossed off, take a ballot paper and then put it in the bin, or walk out with it, and the polling officials see you do this, you will be recorded as not having voted.

    Does that actually happen?

    Actually, no. I worked as an election official at the ACT elections last spring and I had a lady come up to my table after waiting in the line. She showed me and/or told me all of the right stuff so I crossed out her name and handed her a ballot. She then said a few choice words which I can’t remember and if I could wouldn’t be able to repeat without William’s spam filter reacting. She tore the ballot paper up and walked to the exit door, promptly put it into the bin there and waved good bye to my colleague who was monitoring the door and left.

    She was marked as having voted as she was issued a ballot.

  18. It’s the basis of most laws

    LOL!? I have a right to not go through red lights, that I am forced to exercise? That makes no sense whatsoever.
    I have a right to drive on the left side of the road, that I am forced to exercise?
    I have a right to wear a seat belt, that I’m forced to exercise?

  19. 1020,

    Adam in Canberra
    Posted Monday, March 16, 2009 at 9:32 pm | Permalink
    fredn, i’m just telling you what the law is. It is NOT the case that it is legal to get your name crossed off and leave without casting a vote, as was asserted above. If you do that, you will be recorded as not having voted.

    not the case in my polling place of work last October per my earlier post about 5 minutes ago.

  21. Lets have a referendum to coincide it with next year’s fed election. I will vote YES.

    We wouldn’t need a referendum, just an amendment to the electoral act.

  23. give up Frank, have you ever felt you’ve been run over by a steamroller? i’m just breaking into this scintilating discussion to say good night all 🙂

    Meanwhile “Our ABC” are singing a different tune to what Perth Now reported.

    Senator Xenophon says he still has a range of concerns about the Government’s increased tax on alcopops.

    “I would like to hear from the Government as to what it’s going to do to address any possible substitution to other alcoholic beverages or harder drugs due to the introduction of the alcopops tax,” he said.

    “I would also like to see a commitment from the Government that it will commission independent research about alcohol consumption patterns and specifically problem drinking.

    “Finally I would like a detailed statement commitment from the Government about any plans to address the important issue of the proper regulation of alcohol advertising and sponsorships.”

    Senator Xenophon says the failure to get the alcopops legislation through “is entirely on the Government’s head.”

    “They’ve had 11 months to get their act together on this and they’ve failed to deliver on some very basic issues,” he said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/16/2517824.htm

  25. Shows

    Our Liberal brethren seem to be the only one supporting your proposal

    Funny that eh
    🙂

    ps you forget AGAIN, the vital caveat,”if needs be’

  26. If Australians had a choice between voluntary voting or becoming a republic, I reckon the voluntary voting would be the popular one.

  28. Frank, the timing of the ABC article was 1 hour ago. I’ve found it on a google search. The timing of the Australian article was 31 minutes ago. Something happened around about 9pm or shortly thereafter (allowing time for the reporter to write the story and get it to the website by 9:30) …….

  29. It’s the basis of most laws

    LOL!? I have a right to not go through red lights, that I am forced to exercise? That makes no sense whatsoever.
    I have a right to drive on the left side of the road, that I am forced to exercise?
    I have a right to wear a seat belt, that I’m forced to exercise?

    Perhaps AIC said it more eloquently

    The reason I support compulsory voting is the same reason I suppose compulsory tax paying, compulsory seatbelt wearing, compulsory sending children to school, compulsory not smoking in restaurants and dozens of other compulsory things, despite the fact that they are infringements on my right to do as I please: because they facilitate the operation of society in the interests of all its members.

  30. ShowsOn “We wouldn’t need a referendum, just an amendment to the electoral act.”

    That makes it easier!

    Nick Minchin said he wanted to do it on 2004 election night, but he never did it when the Coalition had a majority in the Senate! They should’ve done that, and legalised nuclear power, but instead spent their time on WorkChoices!

    We can change our voting system the same way cant we ShowsOn?

    Yes.

    Our Liberal brethren seem to be the only one supporting your proposal

    No political party owns every good idea ever thought of.

    Perhaps AIC said it more eloquently

    Here Adam is saying something completely different to what you wrote. He wrote:

    despite the fact that they are infringements on my right to do as I please:

    So no one has a RIGHT to use a seat belt, that seat belt laws FORCE them to use. Rather, they have a right NOT to use a seat belt, and the law FORCES them to do the opposite.

    Now I think there is an important difference in this example. A RATIONAL person would wear a seat belt voluntarily, the law is forcing / encouraging them to do what they should do voluntarily.

    But how can we say the same thing for voting? If I don’t vote, it doesn’t harm OTHERS, whereas if I don’t wear a seat belt I could harm both myself AND other people.

    You can’t say that all rational people would vote, because there may be dud candidates that are just hopeless. So a more rational decision is not to vote so you don’t endorse their mediocrity.

  32. You have to fill in the ballot paper as specified in order to have voted (legally). Section 240 seems to thus define a vote.

    However, it is obvious that the government can not determine exactly who has failed to vote in that way. Instead they have a special definition section 245 specifying that the electoral commissioner just has to chase up those who have appeared not to vote, and it suggests that that is determined by looking at who has been crossed off.

    So:
    voting formal is the only legal way to vote;
    turning up and voting informal is illegal but not penalised;
    not turning up (without excuse) is illegal and penalised.

  33. Shows

    Nick Minchin said he wanted to do it on 2004 election night, but he never did it when the Coalition had a majority in the Senate! They should’ve done that, and legalised nuclear power, but instead spent their time on WorkChoices!

    So they should have done Nuclear first THEN worsthoices

    Hmmm your colours are showing

    You can’t say that all rational people would vote, because there may be dud candidates that are just hopeless. So a more rational decision is not to vote so you don’t endorse their mediocrity.

    That is a reveerse of the old “but I was just following orders” argument

    You dont want to vote,dont infringe on everyone elses RIGHT to vote, which cost alot of suffering to achiev,and yet you would piss it up against a wall cos you are worried about “mediocrity”

  34. In a boost for the Federal Government’s hopes of avoiding a recession, retailers are reporting a surge in sales, only days after millions of families began receiving some $3.9 billion in payments

    Some rural outlets recorded a 100 per cent sales boost last Thursday, as families cast aside the threat of job losses to spend up big on “essential” items such as clothing and shoes.

    There were strong results in key political battlegrounds, including outer Adelaide areas such as Elizabeth, raising hopes for the Government of a political dividend from its gamble to send the Budget into deficit.

    Discount retailer Big W revealed its national sales were one-third higher last Thursday – compared to the same day in 2008, when the economy was yet to be hit by the financial crisis.

    In several NSW country areas, stores reported a 100 per cent rise as families used the Government’s $950 per child “back to school” bonus. These were paid to 1.2 million families, while a further 1.5 million families received a $900 one-off bonus.

    Among the best selling items, Big W sold 10,000 pairs of children’s flannelette pyjamas. Kidswear products were 50 per cent higher on Thursday, compared to the same day last year.

    Sales of barbecues also soared with 1000 sold since last Thursday – compared to around 300 sold in a normal week.

    Giant retailer Coles also reported a strong rise in sales of some items. It shifted 10,000 cheap televisions and 5000 DVD players last week – a massive increase on its previous weekly record of 2000.

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25198044-5006301,00.html

  35. Among the best selling items, Big W sold 10,000 pairs of children’s flannelette pyjamas.

    Uncle Kev keeping the kiddies warm this winter 😉

  36. So they should have done Nuclear first THEN worsthoices

    No, INSTEAD OF was the implication of my post.

    Hmmm your colours are showing

    Ad Hominem -> you lose.

    That is a reveerse of the old “but I was just following orders” argument

    No its not, it is really simple. It is RATIONAL for a person to wear a seat belt, because this reduces the chance of them killing themselves and / or others. However, you can’t say it is RATIONAL for a person to vote, because it is not a matter of life and death, it is up for each individual to decide whether it is rational or not.

  37. JulieM (re your #1117)
    Your experience as a polling clerk is interesting. I’ve noticed a change in practice in the booths these days, where one of the staff stands near the exit door (one way traffic only permitted, at least in larger booths with which I’m familiar); I infer that this person’s role is to check that no ballot papers are carried out of the room.
    I’m sure that the motive for this arrangement is to ensure that the number of ballot papers issued balances with the numbers counted. This wouldn’t have happened in the instance you mentioned. Back in the days when there wasn’t a staffer on point duty, this problem could and did arise. That would drive the officer in charge of the booth to distraction at the end of a 12 or 14 hour shift, as s/he’d certainly have to justify any discrepancy. I can certainly remember instances, when I was scrutineering, where such a situation would lead to a frantic search through rubbish bins, in an effort to find the errant ballots.
    In a close election (e.g. McEwen, 2007), irregularities of this sort would be enough to justify recourse to a Court of Disputed Returns.

  38. Ad Hominem -> you lose.

    Waaaaaa….. sniffle
    🙂

    So they should have done Nuclear first THEN worsthoices

    No, INSTEAD OF was the implication of my post.

    Just thought i’d borrow your technique of selective quoting
    😉

  39. I think ABC online have no imperative other than to get page hits. There is probably an AWA agreement for that for someone in there somewhere.

  40. I guess in Julie’s scenario the fact she tore the ballot up in front of them meant it had been pretty successfully destroyed, and thus didn’t pose a vote fraud risk.

  46. This man should be doing 20 years in prison.

    This guy makes me vomit blood. If there were ever a person who emptomised the moral and ethical lows the USA reached in perversion of a country this guy is it. Just him showing his face should make every American feel ashamed.

    Cheney: Obama’s Policies Make US Less Safe

    …Cheney on terrorism prevention under Bush: “I think that’s a great success story. It was done legally. It was done in accordance with our constitutional practices and principles….

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2009/03/15/cheney_obamas_policies_make_us_less_safe_.html

  47. The power players in defence companies in the USA are beside themselves with grief. The prospect of corruptly getting squillions of dollars from phony wars is diminishing.

    Not only are the GOP angry that they can no longer force more billions from tax payers into the pockets of the wealthy, they are beside themselves that there might be less wars thus less billions for their mates. Makes you wonder how many the GOP caused to be killed so they can feather the nest of friends… including many American soldiers.

    They and their sycophantic press are insulted that people should blame them for corrupting just about everything in the country and in the process destroying everything. These scum are now trying to undermine the new administration and try to tar it with the very crimes they committed.

    One can only hope the Republicans spend the next 20 years out of power.

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