Essential Research: 58-42

The latest weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 58-42, down from 60-40 last week and 62-38 the week before. Also featured are yet more questions on the global financial crisis and one on the recent activities of Peter Costello, of which most respondents take a dim view. Also:

• The government’s second go at the Commonwealth Electoral Amendment (Political Donations and Other Measures) Bill passed the House of Representatives yesterday. Daryl Melham, Labor’s member for Banks and chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, had some harsh words during the debate for Family First Senator Steve Fielding, who joined with the Coalition to reject the earlier version of the bill in the Senate last week.

• The redistribution of Tasmanian electorates (which uniquely applies to both federal and state elections) has been finalised, with only minor amendments to the boundaries as originally proposed. These have very slightly weakened Labor’s position in both Braddon and Franklin. More from Antony Green.

• The Electoral Commissioner has determined quotas for Queensland and New South Wales, the first stage in the redistributions that will give a new seat to the first at the expense of the second.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,741 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42”

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  1. [Evan 14 if you need a breath of good clean Labor air you are most welcome to come for a visit ]
    This is not a swingers site. Do you want ACMA to add this site to the blocklist!?

  2. Labor-Greens will control the Senate after the next election. So the government will eventually get the 15 by head count if they can win the next election.

  3. I hope more legislation is to be drawn out through senate processes just so Bob Brown has more opportunities to lay into the opposition.

  4. Once again the Liberals deal themselves out of the debate through obstrunctionism and blind right wing ideology!
    Fielding is still a tool, but he’s slightly redeemed today.

  5. Xenophon just said people are calling up talk back to say they are going to sack people so they can be below a 15 employee threshold.

    What absolute MORONS, what a stupid way to run a business.

  6. Obviously, the Maxwell-Smart-i-only-need-one-vote trick has done the trick for the Govt.

    The Govt has out smarted the Oppositions in this case. Why it wasn’t tried before? Gillard for POTUS!!!!

  7. It’s actually a reality. When WorkChoices was introduced, my company sacked off half a dozen people to get under the 100 threshold.

    It’s going to happen no matter what number is set.

  8. [Showson those talkback callers would be young Libs reading out the script sent from Lib HQ lol]
    I mean seriously, if people think they need to be able to unfairly dismiss people so they can run their business properly, then their business is doomed to fail.

  9. Work Choices is as dead as Costello’s PM chances.

    Both died together, unless he wants campaign to bring it back in. Now if they think it so good they should campaign to bring Workchoices back in.


    [ THE Government appears poised to get its proposed workplace relations laws through the parliament after striking a deal with two key crossbench senators.

    The deal centres on transitional arrangements relating to the definition of small business.

    Labor wanted a definition of fewer than 15 staff while independent Nick Xenophon and Family First’s Steve Fielding were seeking to increase that number to 20.

    In a statement, Senator Fielding said the government had agreed to the definition of small business as 15 full-time workers with a review to be held in 2011.

    “Family First supports the Fair Work Bill as it strengthens protection and fairness for workers and small business,” he said. ]

  11. [Until 1 January 2011, 15 small time equivalents.
    After 1 January 2011, it will be 15 employees by a head count.]

    I assume you mean “full time equivalents”, ShowsOn.

  12. [Until 1 January 2011, 15 small time equivalents.]

    Diog, maybe it was meant for “15 small time crooks or equivalents”

  13. We all had a go at Fielding for voting down Alchopops so it’s only fair that Xenophon gets the same treatment for voting to keep Workchoices!

  14. [I note that the House didn’t adjourn, it just suspended its sitting (I guess in case a deal wasn’t struck):]
    Newsradio says this is because the house will need to meet for a short period tonight to confirm they agree with what was just decided in the Senate i.e. that the small number of amendments are not being insisted upon.

  15. [i.e. that the small number of amendments are not being insisted upon.]
    But the House has already done that, and the Senate agreed to the House’s version of the bill. So the bill has passed both houses in identical form.

    I am pretty sure it is all over and done with now.

  16. Isn’t there something a bit weird that an equal vote for the final draft of alcopops means it dies but an equal vote for the IR laws gets it through?

  17. from dynamic red:
    [5 Messages from the House of Representatives
    returning the Fair Work Bill 2008 and informing the Senate that the House has agreed to certain amendments, disagreed to others, and requesting the reconsideration of the bill in respect of the amendments disagreed to by the House
    Minister moved that the committee not insist on its amendments – the commitee divided: Ayes 29; Noes 29

    As the amendments do not have majority support, the result of the division is that the committee will not insist on its amendments]

  18. from the Oz:
    [Under the deal, announced in the Senate a few minutes ago, the Government will allow for transitional arrangements on the definition of a small business captured by the Government’s unfair dismissal law.

    Workplace Relations Minister Julia Gillard had insisted on a definition of a small business as having a head count of 15 workers but Senator Fielding had argued for a small business definition of 15 full-time equivalent employees.

    The definition was crucial because it represented the cut off at which unfair dismissal laws applied for 12 months for new employees rather than the six month probation period for larger workplaces.

    Under the compromise, a small business will be defined as having 15 full-time equivalent workers until January 1, 2011. After that date the definition will revert to a
    simple head count of 15 workers.

    “This is an historic day as we rid the nation of Work Choices against the fierce opposition of the Coalition,” said the Government’s leader of Government business Joe Ludwig.

    As Ms Gillard watched in the Senator chamber from the Government’s advisor’s box, Senator Ludwig said: “”This is a complete political humiliation of the Coalition,” he said.

    But the Opposition Leader of Business Senator Eric Abetz said: “It is regrettable some Senators have now allowed the deputy prime minister off the hook of her own arrogance.” ],25197,25215670-601,00.html

  19. Irony is X will still win out of being a Workchoices supporter as the murdoch media will probably praise him no end. As Workchoices is dead there wont be any backlash. He is as sneaky as hell.

  20. So the main vote was last night when everyone except the Libs voted for the new laws, but requested amendments, which they chose today not to insist on.

  21. [fielding has just got alcopop guilt. a leopard doesnt change his stripes]
    Seriously, I reckon he stands up says what he is going to do, then goes back to his office and flips a coin to determine if he should do what he said he would do, or change his mind.

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