Morgan: 57-43

The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face survey of 883 voters shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 60.5-39.5 to 57-43. Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 48.5 per cent, the Coalition’s is up substantially from 34.5 per cent to 39 per cent, and the Greens are down two to 6 per cent. Between Morgan, Newspoll and Essential Research, there is now significant evidence that some of the gloss has come off the extraordinary spike Labor enjoyed from its response to the global financial crisis.

Elsewhere:

• The Geelong Advertiser reports on the federal Liberal preselection for Corangamite. Prospective nominees: former Kennett government minister Ian Smith, “considering his position”; Graham Harris, head of the party’s Corangamite electorate council; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay; “Moriac district resident” Rod Nockles; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer Stewart McArthur who lost the seat in 2007.

• Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports that “pressure is mounting inside the Liberal Party to dump its candidate for the state seat of Newland, Trish Draper”. Draper was federal member for Makin from 1996 to 2007, when she forestalled what seemed to be very likely defeat by retiring. Draper is seen to have been damaged by reports an ex-boyfriend has been identified as a suspect in a murder investigation, which is currently the subject of a defamation case. A Liberal source quoted by Kenny says Right faction powerbroker Senator Nick Minchin has told Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith to dump her.

• The ABC reports “speculation” that Premier David Bartlett is “planning to visit Tasmania’s Governor on Monday and send Tasmania to the polls as early as April 18”, resulting from the government’s failure to table long-promised legislation to enact fixed four-year terms. Bartlett denies this, and he would have to be pretty silly to ignore the still-accumulating evidence that unnecessary early elections are a bad idea.

• The ABC reports that Labor is courting Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb as a possible state election candidate for Bass.

• An interim report by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters recommends an end to trials of electronic voting for the vision-impaired and overseas defence personnel on the grounds it is too expensive. The report said the 850 votes cast electronically in 2007 cost $2597 each, compared with $8.36 for each non-electronic vote. A dissenting report by Bob Brown argues the government should pursue electronic voting to assist disadvantaged voters, and investigate its use in the Australian Capital Territory and overseas.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published papers on women parliamentarians in Australia and the possibility of dedicated indigenous representation, a la the Maori seats in New Zealand.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

556 comments on “Morgan: 57-43”

  1. AiC, I think it’s taken some time for the science to actually capture what is happening in a system that’s very difficult to map and track changes. That our political systems have lagged grasping, understanding and comprehending how to respond to this, is hardly surprising. While on one hand, I get why Rudd would try and get the current ETS proposal through, on the other, I get why people, including me, say do more, even if it is too late for this civilisation. For whomever survives the message must be, you can’t live beyond your means. The Malcolm Fraser look alikes on Easter Island will thank us.

  2. Adam 529

    I think you are rewriting history there unless by “No one”, you mean no-one in right wing ALP politics. It has been a big scientific issue for 30 years, though not proven IMO at first. The CSIRO was hosting conferences on it in the mid 80s at least. I first read conference proceedings on it in 1988; at the time the hole in the Ozone layer was the biger threat, but that was taken care of by the Montreal protocol. There were UN conferences since the late 80s. It was a significant Australian political issue in the runup to Kyoto in the mid 90s, and that is over 10 years ago now.

    I was a skeptic on it at first but was convinced after the Russian ice cores from Vostok in 1992 – that pretty much proved it. After that it was a debate about how fast it would act and how much damage it woudl do, plus what we would do to respond. I don’t recall much denialism until after IPCC2 and the coal and oil industries realised the solution was a threat to them. They did their dishonest work well, and obviously have mining unions in tow too now.

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