Morgan: 57-43

The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face survey of 883 voters shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 60.5-39.5 to 57-43. Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 48.5 per cent, the Coalition’s is up substantially from 34.5 per cent to 39 per cent, and the Greens are down two to 6 per cent. Between Morgan, Newspoll and Essential Research, there is now significant evidence that some of the gloss has come off the extraordinary spike Labor enjoyed from its response to the global financial crisis.

Elsewhere:

• The Geelong Advertiser reports on the federal Liberal preselection for Corangamite. Prospective nominees: former Kennett government minister Ian Smith, “considering his position”; Graham Harris, head of the party’s Corangamite electorate council; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay; “Moriac district resident” Rod Nockles; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer Stewart McArthur who lost the seat in 2007.

• Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports that “pressure is mounting inside the Liberal Party to dump its candidate for the state seat of Newland, Trish Draper”. Draper was federal member for Makin from 1996 to 2007, when she forestalled what seemed to be very likely defeat by retiring. Draper is seen to have been damaged by reports an ex-boyfriend has been identified as a suspect in a murder investigation, which is currently the subject of a defamation case. A Liberal source quoted by Kenny says Right faction powerbroker Senator Nick Minchin has told Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith to dump her.

• The ABC reports “speculation” that Premier David Bartlett is “planning to visit Tasmania’s Governor on Monday and send Tasmania to the polls as early as April 18”, resulting from the government’s failure to table long-promised legislation to enact fixed four-year terms. Bartlett denies this, and he would have to be pretty silly to ignore the still-accumulating evidence that unnecessary early elections are a bad idea.

• The ABC reports that Labor is courting Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb as a possible state election candidate for Bass.

• An interim report by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters recommends an end to trials of electronic voting for the vision-impaired and overseas defence personnel on the grounds it is too expensive. The report said the 850 votes cast electronically in 2007 cost $2597 each, compared with $8.36 for each non-electronic vote. A dissenting report by Bob Brown argues the government should pursue electronic voting to assist disadvantaged voters, and investigate its use in the Australian Capital Territory and overseas.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published papers on women parliamentarians in Australia and the possibility of dedicated indigenous representation, a la the Maori seats in New Zealand.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

556 comments on “Morgan: 57-43”

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  2. BTW both Morgan and Essential appear to be tracking the same way, settling back from a huge lead to a very large lead for the government

  3. Yes Andrew – 55-45 or 54-46 is my tip for the next newspoll.

    regardless of the LNP 2PP I can’t see MT’s preferred PM doing much at all.

  4. [So the main vote was last night when everyone except the Libs voted for the new laws, but requested amendments, which they chose today not to insist on.]
    No. The Senate change the legislation to increase a small business definition from 15 by head count, to 20 full time equivalents.

    Today in the House the Government rejected this amendment, the bill went back to the Senate where the Senate then dropped its support for its own amendment, and instead agreed to the House version of the bill.

  5. Have a drink not just because Workchioces has been held down garrotted but also because Erica and crew will be spewing pure bile.

    And, they got killed by a woman. Erica & Peter have been emasculated. Not that Peter gave much indication he had anything to lose.

  7. Just continuing on from the previous thread…

    A few minutes ago Newsradio very briefly swapped to the HOR. When they got there they said that Rudd had just made a short statement before cutting in the HOR audio just in time to hear Jenkins say something like “the house is adjourned until such and such”. The Newsradio host then took us straight back to the Senate.

  8. Ah, we missed te House Adjourn:
    [ 45 ADJOURNMENT

    Mr Rudd, 5:35:37 PM, moved—That the House do now adjourn.

    Question—put and passed, 5:35:42 PM.

    And then the House, at 5.36p.m., adjourned until 2 p.m. on Tuesday, 12 May 2009.]

  9. So Fielding’s 15 FTE deal isn’t part of the legislation, because they didn’t vote on that. It must be that Gillard said she would interpret the definition as 15 FTE until 2011.

  10. This should be a great “Good News Story” to lead the news bulletins tonight in Qld. Might help with those undecideds.

  11. Looks like Gillard and Labor have outsmarted the Libs on process. I thought Abetz head was going to explode.

  12. Gillard has powers under the act for transitional arrangements, and she has just agreed to a phase in of the 15 by head count definition.

    Fielding THINKS he got them to do a review, but if Rudd is still P.M., the Senate will be Labor-Green controlled which makes it a formality.

  13. [the Senate will be Labor-Green controlled which makes it a formality.]

    not necessarily – the caravan of IR may have moved on from workchoices.

  14. [will the death of WC have any bearing on tomorrow’s Qld election]

    Maybe work against labor in that people will feel more comfortable voting LNP as no more Work Choices or maybe work against LNP as people may feel libs inc LNP have not let go of Work Choices,

    So don’t know.

  18. [the caravan of IR may have moved on from workchoices]

    Not based on what just happened, labor will be able to show the libs have never let go of Work Choices, fought to the death to retain it and will try to reintroduced it in anther name or form if they get the chance.

  19. Gees it feels good to hear the death of Workchoices. This from someone who hated working for a boss so preferred to be self employed.
    🙂 🙂

  20. This Senator Mason seems to have been imbibing too much on the Red Cordial.

    One last broadside falling harmlessly into the sea. What a bunch of tools.

  22. Finns

    The AIG public outrage is getting to a lynch mob level. The execs are being stalked, getting death threats, warnings to keep their kids out of harm’s way and need security guards outside their homes. It’s all good. Democracy works eventually. 👿

    Their neighbours are giving those “how does it feel to find out your next door neighbor is a serial killer” kind of interviews.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/20/nyregion/20siege.html?_r=1&hp

  24. Looks like Gillard and Labor have outsmarted the Libs on process.

    I think that understates what happened. Isn’t it a case of Gillard convincing a Senator to support the bill? The process was very enjoyable to watch – like a stage magician and the “ta-da” moment, but the real work was just old fashioned policy politics. No?

    I thought Abetz head was going to explode.

    As did I!

    And just a few short hours earlier Malcolm Turnbul was accusing Gillard’s arrogance of crashing the “death of WorkChoices” into a brick wall. It seemed like a morality tale on hubris. 😉

  25. I’m still not sure that Mr X did. The media is reporting that Gillard struck a deal on the transitional arrangements with both Fielding and Xenophon. It probably doesn’t matter much anyway.

    [THE Rudd Government’s workplace relations laws are set to pass the Senate this afternoon after a deal between the Government and Independent Senator Nick Xenophon and Family First’s Steve Fielding.

    Under the deal, announced in the Senate a few minutes ago, the Government will allow for transitional arrangements on the definition of a small business captured by the Government’s unfair dismissal law. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25215670-601,00.html

  26. Mason must have forgotten to take his Ritalin this morning. Everyone left in the chamber will be giving him a wide berth after he finishes. They will be scared of getting bitten by him and catching Rabies.

  29. Let’s say Labor wins the next election, who thinks this means Gillard will drop I.R. and take on a different portfolio (as well as Education) after the election?

    If the Government decides to go for a federal take over of hospitals, Gillard could take on Health as well as Education with Roxon taking I.R.

    Having said that, Combet or Shorten would be great in I.R.

  30. For a Party that has repeatedly tried to tell us that “Workchoices is Dead”, they seem to be having a lot of trouble accepting the loss of their dear friend. They seem to be doing denial, anger, bargaining and depression simultaneously.

  31. [Just how angry and ill advised and careless will the Turnbull crew be now.]

    Going by what I have just seen with the nutcase Mason and the earlier antics by Abetz and Turnbull, VERY ANGRY!

    The last thing I saw in the telecast was two men in white coats coming into the chamber and heading for Mason.

  33. If Springborg wins tomorrow, will he and Barnett follow their Republican State Governor counterparts in refusing to take the stimpac funds? Or are they hypocrites? So far Palin, Sandford and Jindal have a large part of the money offered to them.

  34. [For a Party that has repeatedly tried to tell us that “Workchoices is Dead”,]
    They seem to hold a lot of seances.

  36. Well, I thought the APH report was interesting. Interesting too that there have even been recommendations in Parliamentary Committee’s but nothing ever comes of it – see the recommendations of the 1v1v committee in WA in 2001:
    http://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/parliament/commit.nsf/(Report+Lookup+by+Com+ID)/22155D7A1F3DC40048256B100031FD84/$file/ln.elm.011124.rpf.008.xx.a.pdf
    There was unanimous agreement that they should look at indigenous representation but then managed to ignore that ever since (and will forever more under Barnett & Grylls).

  38. [For a Party that has repeatedly tried to tell us that “Workchoices is Dead”,

    They seem to hold a lot of seances.]

    sadly worstchoices still beats strongly in the heart of the liberals

  40. From Christian Kerr today:
    [The political dilemma will then fall again to the Coalition, which will have to make a decision to either vote against the bill and be painted as Work Choices addicts, or vote for it and look like they have backed down and been hairy chested about nothing.

    If she can pull off a compromise that satisfies the crossbenchers while alienating the Coalition, her reputation as the Government’s best political operative will be guaranteed. ]
    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/houserules/index.php/theaustralian/comments/gillard_tries_to_do_a_number_on_coalition/

    Reputation quaranteed.

    Wonder if she’ll now dump the IR part of her portfolio and focus full time on education??

  41. [Wonder if she’ll now dump the IR part of her portfolio and focus full time on education??]
    I don’t think she will do it now, but after an election I think it is a possibility, see #29.

    If Labor goes to the election saying Labor will take over public hospitals, then Gillard would be a great Health minister to get that up and running.

  43. [NO MENTION on melb ch 7 news- incredible]

    Meanwhile Ch 7 in Perth had the delayed 4.30 Bulletin which was saying the Bill was in danger of being blocked.

  44. [WorkChoices death was the 7th story on Seven News Adelaide.]

    And I’ll bet Mark Reilly was spinning it for Turnbull 🙁

  45. [If she can pull off a compromise that satisfies the crossbenchers while alienating the Coalition]
    Note how Kerr thinks the Government needed BOTH crossbenchers?

    This is like yesterday where he didn’t know the proper quotas for full and half senate elections.

  47. [And I’ll bet Mark Reilly was spinning it for Turnbull ]
    No, it showed Gillard saying the Liberals will always be for WorkChoices, it then had some Xenophon asking the government to agree with his amendments, then an interview with a cafe owner asking her if this changes anything.

  48. [Finns – The AIG public outrage is getting to a lynch mob level.]

    Diog, can i join? Those custards just dont get it. I agree with that Repug Senator who said they should take deep bow, apologize and then commit Hurrah Kurrah (That’s the Apache’s version of the japanese Hara kiri, i think it was in the movie a Man called Horse, strung up and pulled around by horses). AIG = Arrogant, Insensitive and Greedy.

  50. SO

    Gillard is thanking the Greens, X and Fielding for getting rid of Workchoices.

    [Ms Gillard thanked the Greens, independent senator Nick Xenophon and Family First senator Steve Fielding for their constructive contributions to the debate.

    “The work with the Australian Greens and senators Fielding and Xenophon shows just what can be achieved when people of good will who are opposed to WorkChoices work together,” Ms Gillard said. ]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25215769-5006301,00.html

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