Essential Research: 58-42

The latest weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 58-42, down from 60-40 last week and 62-38 the week before. Also featured are yet more questions on the global financial crisis and one on the recent activities of Peter Costello, of which most respondents take a dim view. Also:

• The government’s second go at the Commonwealth Electoral Amendment (Political Donations and Other Measures) Bill passed the House of Representatives yesterday. Daryl Melham, Labor’s member for Banks and chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, had some harsh words during the debate for Family First Senator Steve Fielding, who joined with the Coalition to reject the earlier version of the bill in the Senate last week.

• The redistribution of Tasmanian electorates (which uniquely applies to both federal and state elections) has been finalised, with only minor amendments to the boundaries as originally proposed. These have very slightly weakened Labor’s position in both Braddon and Franklin. More from Antony Green.

• The Electoral Commissioner has determined quotas for Queensland and New South Wales, the first stage in the redistributions that will give a new seat to the first at the expense of the second.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,741 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42”

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  1. The following question from essential research is interesting:

    ‘The Government has involved a whole array of unnecessary policies that will
    waste a lot of money and not serve any useful purpose’

    A bit of balance would have added the following question:

    ‘The confusion, hypocrisy and personal hate politics of the Opposition will waste time and energy and not serve any useful purpose.’

  2. I’m going to breach my own Article 6 here, but I think I’ve earned the right. Annabel Crabb in the Sydney Morning Herald:

    [Wannabe member for Beaudesert, Pauline Hanson, said yesterday she was thinking of revealing (her navel) to disprove the claims of putative ex-boyfriend Jack Johnson, who swears his steamy topless photographs – published at the weekend – are of a young Ms Hanson after one too many passion pops in the mid-1970s. The lingerie-clad young lady disporting herself for Mr Johnson’s lens displays a distinctly protuberant belly button. Squads of navel tacticians stand by. Will Ms Hanson confound her tormentors by revealing an “innie”?]

  3. Adam @ 1106

    Agreed.

    I understand that a significant number of deaths involve some form of collusion between doctors, patients and family. I use the word ‘collusion’ rather than ‘cooperation’ advisedly.

    At times of high stress all these folk should not have to speedily learn the double-speak that goes with breaking a law. Also, family members learn the special language at varying rates, which makes stress between family members higher than it should be. Then again, signals might be misinterpreted – either deliberately or accidentally. Everyone suffers unnecessarily.

    It was a tragedy that the social conservatives in the Federal Parliament chose to overturn the NT law.

  4. William

    I am gobsmacked. Har har.

    BTW… I have a sneaking suspicion that navel extroverts can have the situation introverted surgically, but would happily bow to more experienced sages on this one.

  5. re #2 Do you think Ms Crabb trys too hard to be witty, it gets annoying after a while and sadly she is not as good as the late Matt Price?

  6. I find Ms Crabb far more immature and tacky than ‘witty’. As soon as I see her name on an article I know I can freely skip over it and not miss one bit of insight.

  7. ShowsOn at 1131 in the old thread:

    [Doesn’t it suck that our media doesn’t know anything about our constitution?

    The Senate can’t amend tax bills.]

    No. But it can make requests for amendments, and if the Government fails to make them in the House of Representatives can then reject the bill or insist that they be made. In essence, it’s pretty much the same.

  9. ltep @ 7
    [No. But it can make requests for amendments, and if the Government fails to make them in the House of Representatives can then reject the bill or insist that they be made. In essence, it’s pretty much the same.]

    It still comes down to the fact that they cannot make amendments – they can only request them. At the end of the day they have to either pass them or fail them.

    Tom.

  10. The heff never ceases to amaze.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/17/2517913.htm

    [Federal Liberal Senator Bill Heffernan is facing a ban from New South Wales Parliament for allegedly threatening to hit a police special constable who confiscated a knife from him.

    Police special constables in charge of Parliament House security say Senator Heffernan produced the knife after he passed through a metal detector on Friday.

    Their report into the incident says the longtime Senator claimed he was testing security and the knife was then confiscated.

    When Senator Heffernan was told he could have the knife back when, he left allegedly said, “That’s OK. If I don’t get it back, I’ll job you one.”]

  12. ShowsOn

    Because I’m not sure that a parliament can make decisions that families, Drs and patients can’t in a way that is better for the patient and family.

    The problem is the doctors are performing an illegal act. It’s unfair on the doctor and highly remiss of the legal system to put doctors in that position. If the law was changed it would still be the decision of the families, Drs and patients, but it would be better regulated, and the problem off separating illegal acts performed by doctors because the law does not reflect societies norms and illegal acts that abuse societies norms would go away.

    Those who supported the overturning of the NT legislation showed no respect for our legal system, contempt for the doctors who have to ignore the law or a complete lack of knowledge of how it all works.

  13. [re #2 Do you think Ms Crabb trys too hard to be witty, it gets annoying after a while and sadly she is not as good as the late Matt Price?
    ]

    Yes.

    You don’t have to bring Matt Price into it either. She is not half as funny as her over-inflated image of herself.

    Her brief, or quest – call ti what you will – is to reinforce the idea that politicians are there solely for the amusement of journalists, who are the real torch carriers of democracy. The pollies are temps, in for a while then out again, there simply to provide fodder for cynical journos to bite into, chew once or twice and then spit out.

  14. The cross-benchers are really annoyed with the Government on the alcopops tax. Didn’t they realise it was never designed to reduce binge drinking? It was always a cynical tax grab combined with populist finger pointing. The fact that the Government won’t budge on spending more of the $1.6B to actually reduce binge drinking or to limit alcohol advertising show they were never serious about problem alcohol consumption anyway.

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25198619-5005962,00.html

  16. bob 1234

    that is like saying why do all the paedophiles comes from the ALP

    Wright, Bill D’Arcy, Bob Collins, Milton Orkopoulos

  17. #8
    I like Ms Crabb as well, but on her appearances on Insiders and sometimes Sky News. As a Victorian the SMH isn’t my usual reading.

  21. [It was always a cynical tax grab combined with populist finger pointing. The fact that the Government won’t budge on spending more of the $1.6B to actually reduce binge drinking or to limit alcohol advertising show they were never serious about problem alcohol consumption anyway.]

    Diogenes, that is a very cynical and unfair view. Read and learn:

    Home > Ministers > The Hon Nicola Roxon MP – Minister for Health and Ageing > Media Releases > Preventative Health to Benefit from Alcopops Revenue
    Preventative Health to Benefit from Alcopops Revenue

    11 March 2009

    As a result of the revenue from the Government’s alcopops measure, the Rudd Government is investing $872 million in preventative health – including initiatives focusing on alcohol abuse, healthy eating and physical activity and breastfeeding initiatives. This is the single largest investment ever made by an Australian Government in preventative health. This is what the alcopops measure has made possible – more investment in health, including in tackling alcohol abuse. At the time the alcopops measure was announced, Health Minister Nicola Roxon said: “this change will see the single biggest investment ever by a Commonwealth Government into preventative health measures”. The investment in prevention announced at last year’s COAG meeting fulfils this commitment.

    Measures include:

    Healthy Workers – Healthy living initiatives will be rolled out through workplaces. Employers will be assisted to implement programs to reduce the risk profiles of their workforces, including risks from excessive use of alcohol, through risk assessment and modification services.
    Healthy Children – Programs targeted at kids aged under 16 through child care centres, preschools, schools and families. Programs aimed at preventing alcohol abuse may be included.
    Healthy Communities – Programs will be rolled out nationally through local government organisations in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas.

    There is a looming tsunami of chronic diseases that threatens the sustainability of our health system. There are around 670,000 preventable hospital admissions every year. Without a significant investment in prevention, and an increased focus on keeping people well and out of hospital, our health system will suffer in the years to come. More detail of what will be included in the National Preventative Health Partnership is provided below.

    Healthy Children measures to be delivered by States and Territories could include:
    Intensive programs to support at-risk children achieve healthy weight
    Healthy eating and exercise programs in children’s settings
    Investing in capital infrastructure like bike paths
    Supporting and expanding breastfeeding programs
    New initiatives to target childhood obesity

    Healthy Workers measures to be delivered by States and Territories could include:
    Subsidising employers to provide risk assessment and counselling services to employees
    Providing programs directly into workplaces
    Subsidising employers to structure physical activity and healthy eating into the workday
    Healthy Communities measures to be delivered by the Commonwealth will include:
    Funding the roll out of community based healthy lifestyle interventions in disadvantaged areas
    Funding healthy living coordinators to manage programs and recruit participants

    There will also be investment in social marketing, to promote healthy living messages, including campaigns targeted at reducing obesity and smoking; and in health infrastructure, including a national preventative health agency and a preventative health research fund. The Government has already committed to $53 million investment in our National Binge Drinking Strategy, and the National Preventative Health Taskforce is canvassing a range of further options to tackle alcohol abuse in the community.

  22. I don’t follow the logic of Senators X and Fielding. The purpose of the tax, I thought, was to make alcopops less affordable to young people. It’s done that. Why should all the tax collected also be used to tackle binge drinking? Tax is tax. It comes from all over the place and goes into a big pool and it should be spent as wisely as possible. There are other equally useful ways to spend that much money. If that’s their reasoning, why don’t they also insist that all the tax collected from tobacco be used to fund anti-smoking measures?

  23. [The purpose of the tax, I thought, was to make alcopops less affordable to young people. It’s done that.]

    It’s made them less affordable to everyone, regardless of age or consumption.

  24. [It’s made them less affordable to everyone, regardless of age or consumption]

    RTDs are used by the liquor industry to attract younger drinkers who don’t like the taste of alcohol. Making them less affordable to young people is a really good idea.

  26. Diogenes,

    You fall for the lie that the cross benchers and the Greens are the only ones that care about the community.

  27. OMG are the US Republicans in trouble now, you thought that the Libs have trouble with leadership issues, the Reps. are preparing to ditch their new guy 😉 …. (admit though that it will bring a tidy end to the still technically open vote count in the Minnesota Senate race)

    [
    Buzz is brewing that former Senator Norm Coleman is becoming the consensus pick to take over for Michael Steele.

    http://themarathonblog.com/2009/03/16/buzz-norm-coleman-to-succeed-michael-steele-at-rnc-by-phil-singer/
    ]

  29. Adam

    If that’s true, why won’t they spend some of the $1.6B on the programs the cross-benchers want. Or they could be really brave and actually do what Fielding wants which is to limit alcohol advertising. That would really make a difference.

    [The government has agreed to $10 million for substituting alcohol sponsorship in sporting clubs and community sport but the Greens want double that amount.

    It has refused to fund an alcohol helpline and Senator Xenophon’s request for $50 million over four years for alcohol education programs.

    The government has agreed to health warnings being included in all alcohol TV ads.

    But it won’t budge on a demand from the other key crossbench senator – Family First’s Steve Fielding – for TV alcohol advertising to be banned until late at night. ]

    I also disagree with the emphasis of your blurb about the direction of health policy.

    1. The best way to prevent having a huge number of people with chronic diseases is to have everyone die earlier. Most people live longer with chronic diseases now because we can keep them alive.
    2. All this stuff about childhood obesity is grossly overhyped, as it’s “epidemic number”.
    3. Longevity rates for obese people are actually very good, unless they are morbidly obese (BMI>35) and even then it’s not that bad.

    If Roxon really wanted to prevent chronic disease, the greatest preventable is cigarette smoking. Let’s see her do something about that, like sue them for the health costs smoking has led to.

  31. Oh, another little rumour going around is a proposal to axe access to the Medicare Safety Net for high income earners.

    Is the writing on the wall for Howardist Middle/Upper Middle Class Welfare?

  32. William and/or Antony, I know this isn’t on the QLD election post but I won’t be checking that until Saturday on the day.

    Can you tell us when the polls close and at what point might a result be obvious? You can give me Brisbane time, I can translate 😀 …..

    Cheers 🙂

  33. GG

    There is a problem with putting an extra tax on something to control it.

    First of all it creates a “black market”. In this case, kids just buy spirits and mix them. Or the spirit groups put out a malt based alcopop to avoid the legislation.

    Secondly, once the Government starts receiving huge amounts of tax dollars for anything (in this case $1.6B extra over 4 years), they cannot kill the cash cow and end up protecting the very industry they initially tried to curtail. The gambling industry and Big Tobacco are great examples. What happened to Rudd’s election promise to go after the pokie barons?

  34. [WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama declared Monday that insurance giant American International Group is in financial straits because of “recklessness and greed” and said he intends to stop it from paying out millions in executive bonuses…….. Noting that AIG has “received substantial sums” of federal aid from the federal government, Obama said he has asked Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner “to use that leverage and pursue every legal avenue to block these bonuses and make the American taxpayers whole……. “This isn’t just a matter of dollars and cents,” he added. “It’s about our fundamental values.””]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/16/obama-aig-remarks-full-te_n_175312.html

    That is why i never bought the arguement that there is nothing that the Obama Admin can do to stop the payment because the bonuses were contracted.

    The most powerful man in the World and the most powerful nation in the World that can invade another country illegally but cannot stop some piddling executives in a company that they already own. Tell me another story.

    Such as the arguement put forward by Diog few days ago. It’s pure Annabel crapp.

    [Diogenes, that is a very cynical and unfair view]

    he is also very naive, sometimes. Most of the time? wRONg and a cheerio from Amigo wRONg.

    Obi, stop talking, just do it.

  35. Diogenes obesity related illnesses have overtaken smoking. We have tackled smoking with price and taxes, banning smoking indoors- (which is a crock), increasing premiums for life insurance etc. You obviously haven’t smoked before- it is enjoyable, why the fark else would any one do it. More and more evidence is mountingabout stress being the main culprit in every disease. If people think smoking reduces this- then it does

  36. [The best way to prevent having a huge number of people with chronic diseases is to have everyone die earlier. Most people live longer with chronic diseases now because we can keep them alive.]

    Why should I take you seriously when you make moronic remarks like that? If, as I gather, you are a health professional of some sort, you ought to be ashamed of yourself.

    [spend some of the $1.6B]

    The tax raises $400m a year, not $1.6bn. Why not say $40bn or $40tn? Both will be true over some period of time. This is just cheap stunting. When you compare $400m a year revenue from this tax with the spending outlined above, it’s a pretty good comparison. Anyway, as someone said above, government doesn’t work that way. Tax goes into consolidated revenue and health spending comes out of it. There’s no direct relationship between this tax and spending on health prevention.

    [If Roxon really wanted to prevent chronic disease, the greatest preventable is cigarette smoking. Let’s see her do something about that, like sue them for the health costs smoking has led to.]

    Cheap demagoguery – you’re worse than Xenophon. There has been a radical reduction is smoking and associated heath costs.

  38. Diogs,

    My point is that you tend to come out with generalised smears and then spend the rest of your time back tracking or rationalising.

    As far as I know alcholhol consumption and tobacco are still legal drugs. That they cause harm is not in question. It is just Governments have to balance the hysterial zealotry of the puritans versus the right of individuals to conduct their lives in the way they most see fit.

    Significant changes in attitude have occurred on all these social drugs with limitations on their use. Taxation is but one tool to restrict use. Adam points out a number of processes the Government is doing.

    However, as always with the Greens, it is never enough and never fast enough. The beauty of being a Green supporter is that you never have to take political responsibility for your decisions.

  39. Finns

    You will note that Obama is using some of my suggestions to avoid paying the bonuses. You can’t just ignore a contract. You have to get nastier.

    Hillary is copping plenty from human rights activists about her “appeasement” policy towards China’s human rights abuses.

  40. The aim of the RTD’s is to make spirit alcohol a sweet appealing taste to kids
    The market was is and always will be predominately early teens.

    thats why a tax works on reducing consumption.

    Simple really

  42. Adam

    I don’t believe I said people should be allowed to die earlier from chronic disease. Quite the opposite.

    The focus of Governments in convincing the population that chronic diseases are preventable and therefore due to the lifestyle choices of the people afflicted by them is a way of blaming the victim and therefore underfunding them. In effect, they are saying that the population has caused this “health epidemic” and the poor old Government left carrying the can for them.

  43. [You have to get nastier.]

    Diog, Obi should send troops in and occupy the HQ of AIG. Take all the executives, line them up and shoot them as they (execs) were propagating WMD (deceptions).

  44. [There has been a radical reduction is smoking and associated heath costs.]

    I don’t think Rudd has contributed to that in any way. Smoking is still way out ahead as a cause of preventable disease. About 20% of people smoke and Rudd seems to be happy leaving it at this level. Alcopops are a tiny problem compared to 20% of people continuing to smoke.

  46. In effect, they are saying that the population has caused this “health epidemic” and the poor old Government left carrying the can for them.

    Finally some sense Diog. Unfortunately health is not always at the forefront of most peoples desicion making. If you want people to reduce smoking double the price. If you want people to get healthier, put on a fat tax- create a price differential between full suar and diet drink, make gym memberships tax deductible.

  47. Ms Crabb’s problem is that she tries too hard to be cute, clever and funny simultaneously. She ends up sounding like a lightweight and I have great difficulty reading her articles because her style is just so annoying. She’s essentially Maureen Dowd without the intelligence or substance.

    Actually the quality of the SMH political commentary has declined significantly over the past decade or so. They made a great mistake purging Mike Secombe a few years ago -now there was a journalist who could write a substantive and informative piece while at the same time being entertaining. The only political commentator there worth reading these days is Philip Coorey. I go to the Age for my political commentary now

  48. GG

    [My point is that you tend to come out with generalised smears and then spend the rest of your time back tracking or rationalising.]

    It seems to work. I’m surprised so many people fall for it, though. 😀

    [However, as always with the Greens, it is never enough and never fast enough.]

    We’re there to provide the counterbalance to everyone who says to do nothing or as little as possible. And there are always plenty of those at the moment.

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