Essential Research: 58-42

The latest weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 58-42, down from 60-40 last week and 62-38 the week before. Also featured are yet more questions on the global financial crisis and one on the recent activities of Peter Costello, of which most respondents take a dim view. Also:

• The government’s second go at the Commonwealth Electoral Amendment (Political Donations and Other Measures) Bill passed the House of Representatives yesterday. Daryl Melham, Labor’s member for Banks and chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, had some harsh words during the debate for Family First Senator Steve Fielding, who joined with the Coalition to reject the earlier version of the bill in the Senate last week.

• The redistribution of Tasmanian electorates (which uniquely applies to both federal and state elections) has been finalised, with only minor amendments to the boundaries as originally proposed. These have very slightly weakened Labor’s position in both Braddon and Franklin. More from Antony Green.

• The Electoral Commissioner has determined quotas for Queensland and New South Wales, the first stage in the redistributions that will give a new seat to the first at the expense of the second.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,741 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42”

Comments Page 2 of 35
1 2 3 … 35

  1. GG

    [So your crusade is more righteous than someone elses?]

    It’s nothing to do with righteous. I just think that Roxon has her priorities wrong. And I think the measures she has taken are pretty ineffective.

  4. [The focus of Governments in convincing the population that chronic diseases are preventable and therefore due to the lifestyle choices of the people afflicted by them is a way of blaming the victim and therefore underfunding them. In effect, they are saying that the population has caused this “health epidemic” and the poor old Government left carrying the can for them.]

    So the government should just let everyone eat, drink and smoke their way into avoidable chronic illness and then accept responsibility for the immense cost of their preventable illnesses? I don’t think so. The focus has to be on prevention, or the whole health system will collapse – you know this, I’m sure.

  5. The index has identified 100 “red-alert high-risk” suburbs in Victorian cities where job losses are set to be the most severe. Victoria has a higher proportion of such suburbs than any state apart from Queensland and South Australia.

    Journalism at it’s best- we have just built the biggest tower in the world- apart from those other 3 that are bigger. WTF

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/mortgagebelt-jobs-in-peril-20090316-9023.html

    I don’t know who you are Peter Martin, but if I meet you I will laugh in your face (and take you around the back of the shelter shed for a good beating)

  6. Centaur

    you’ve got your peter’s mixed up. peter martin is generally quite impartial and is perhaps just reporting what the stats are indicating

    [I don’t know who you are Peter Martin, but if I meet you I will laugh in your face (and take you around the back of the shelter shed for a good beating)]

    Costello’s the one needing it
    🙂

  8. Adam

    Most diseases aren’t preventable.

    As you can see from above, I strongly advocate trying to prevent diseases due to smoking and alcohol. The emphasis on diseases being due to obesity is contrary to most of the evidence.

    If we all think that we can prevent lots of diseases by changing lifestyle factors it will lull us into a false sense of security that we aren’t going to have a health system which will collapse. The health system will collapse over about 20 years unless a huge amount of effort is put into reforming it. No amount of prevention will stop that.

    It’s estimated that 30% of the States budget will be on health by 2020.

    I’m also very concerned that people with chronic diseases will be blamed for having them. Therefore the political downside from them receiving poor care will be less and Governments will be able to skimp on spending on chronic disease.

  10. Diogenes, we are getting off topic. The topic was why you are opposed to a measure which will reduce consumption of hard liquor by teenagers, and in fact has already done so (see Chikritzhs et al in the current MJA for evidence on this). Your assertion that this is “just a tax grab” is false and offensive. I’m sure you know that all the organisations and health professionals working in this field support this measure.

  11. Victoria has a higher proportion of such suburbs than any state apart from Queensland and South Australia.

    So no one sees a problem with that statement. It is just sloppy writing. You can’t ordinaly rank something and then have 2 exceptions out of 7 states

  13. Roxon has done a deal with the Greens and Xenophon: $50m more for education and sponsorship-substitution. That means it’s all up to Fielding. I think he’ll crack rather than take responsibilirty for rejecting the bill.

  16. The government didn’t accept Fielding’s amendment, but it sounds as though it has caved in to the Greens and X. Fielding has just started speaking.

  17. [The government has come to an agreement with the greens and mr x over the alcopops tax bill thingy.]
    What’s the deal? They all have to drink 11 alcopops before the final division?

  22. [Can you tell us when the polls close and at what point might a result be obvious? You can give me Brisbane time, I can translate 😀 …..]

    The polls close as always at 6pm. If the result will be clear on election night, it should be so by 9.30 to 10.00 at the latest. If it’s a landslide, which nobody expects, that should be apparent by 7.30.

  23. So with a choice between some measures to tackle alcoholism, including what the Greens and X have got, and nothing, Fielding prefers nothing.

  25. [including what the Greens and X have got, and nothing, Fielding prefers nothing.]
    Yeah, but he has a habit of going rogue from his own positions. He’ll often stand up and say he got nothing out of a deal, and then vote for ‘nothing’ seemingly for the hell of it. 😀

  26. [ triton
    Posted Tuesday, March 17, 2009 at 1:29 pm | Permalink]
    You’re name is triton, yet your avatar is a pentagon. It’s freaking me out.

  28. #76
    Sorry, ShowsOn. 🙂 I was assigned that avatar automatically when I posted on a Pineapple Party Time thread and I liked it so much I brought it here. Triton is moon of Neptune, so I should really have a round avatar.

  30. Xenophon is pretty happy and says it will do a lot of social good. Brown is the same. Translation: “Pass it, Steve.”

  31. Adam

    [The topic was why you are opposed to a measure which will reduce consumption of hard liquor by teenagers]

    I think I may have given the wrong impression due to my cynical and contrary nature.

    I’m not opposed to the legislation and hope it passes. I was just pointing out what I saw as the weaknesses of Roxon’s legislation and think it could have been more effective. I’m also concerned that $400M a year of extra taxes is a lot for what will be only a fairly small reduction in binge drinking. I think the approach could have been better, and it looks like Mr X has delivered a better outcome. The less of that $400M the Government keeps for “general revenue” the better as it makes them less likely to become “addicted” to it.

  35. Alcohol taxes are ridiculously complicated. It should just be 10% GST + percentage of alcohol in the drink. The fact it is based on HOW the drink is produced is ridiculous, it makes no difference in terms of the physiological effect of the alcohol.

  37. [Of course if the measure is effective, the revenue will decline over time.]
    Revenue per capita maybe, but if the population keeps growing, the revenue will stay the same or increase.

  38. #85 ShowsOn
    What would that do to wine prices if tax revenue were maintained? There could be a lot of resistance to that (including from me!).

  39. [What would that do to wine prices if tax revenue were maintained? ]
    Wine currently has a 22% Wine Equalisation tax. Under my system some wine prices would go down, while others (with over 12% alcohol) would increase.

  48. Musrum

    I don’t think it’s going to get better. The baby boomers still aren’t in their 80s when it will be at its worst. Health costs, life expectancy and the ability to keep people alive despite previously horrible diseases will keep increasing the amount of Government devoted to Health.

    JB

    It’s the masochist in me. It’s a tough job but someone has to do it.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 2 of 35
1 2 3 … 35