Essential Research: 58-42

The latest weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 58-42, down from 60-40 last week and 62-38 the week before. Also featured are yet more questions on the global financial crisis and one on the recent activities of Peter Costello, of which most respondents take a dim view. Also:

• The government’s second go at the Commonwealth Electoral Amendment (Political Donations and Other Measures) Bill passed the House of Representatives yesterday. Daryl Melham, Labor’s member for Banks and chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, had some harsh words during the debate for Family First Senator Steve Fielding, who joined with the Coalition to reject the earlier version of the bill in the Senate last week.

• The redistribution of Tasmanian electorates (which uniquely applies to both federal and state elections) has been finalised, with only minor amendments to the boundaries as originally proposed. These have very slightly weakened Labor’s position in both Braddon and Franklin. More from Antony Green.

• The Electoral Commissioner has determined quotas for Queensland and New South Wales, the first stage in the redistributions that will give a new seat to the first at the expense of the second.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,741 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42”

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  1. [The alcopops excise rise started life as a tax increase masquerading as a stunt last year, back when there were regular accusations the new Government didn’t have anything to do while it waited for all its reviews to be conducted except talk about its budget surplus.

    Ah, halcyon days.]

    Lol, good old daily Crikey.

  2. [Dio, be honest, you relish being a devil’s advocate and putting the cat among the pidgeons]

    Diog, you have re-affirmed again and again, that you were never told when you were young that pain would lead to pleasure. So you always put your hand up and asking for more. Pathetic.

  3. [The less of that $400M the Government keeps for “general revenue” the better as it makes them less likely to become “addicted” to it.]

    We are going to have a large deficit and we get a statement like that. Like I said this is all about taking whatever position is necessary to support Major Major Major Major’s chest beating.

  4. Finns

    I’m not sure how historically accurate that painting is. I’m a little unconvinced that bound books were around in Diogenes time and Alexander the Great suit appears to involve moulded metal which also wasn’t around then.

  5. #103
    I thought there was already a vote. I don’t know if there will be another this week, but the mysteries of parliament elude me.

  6. #107 Adam
    Turnbull said the other day that he would vote to keep the tax that’s already been collected but not for collecting more. That was the subject of the Dorothy Dixer to Roxon yesterday (i.e., that Turnbull has two positions, like he has had on stimulus, IR, ETS, etc).

  7. How come the Opposition is so listless today. They make the Ruddster looks like he’s on steroid.

    have they all had their mass premature ejection?

  8. [The alcopops bill must be passed this week or the government will have to return all the money provisionally collected since last April to the distillers.]

    It doesn’t go back to the distillers because they didn’t pay the tax, the public did. Rudd has to spend it on alcohol related programs, or hold a huge alcopop binge party. The same thing happened with a beer tax under Howie that was collected for a while before dying in the Senate.

  9. LOL!!!

    [For the benefit of Crikey’s readers, Walter Slurry has created the first ever “do-it-yourself” column suitable for the opinion pages of The Daily Telegraph, the Herald Sun, The Australian and a range of other subscription publications. Just start by picking your author and go from there. So many potential combinations, so much wasted newsprint. Hours of fun for the whole family:

    Instant think piece by:

    Janet Albrechtsen
    Piers Akerman
    Andrew Bolt
    Steve Price
    Miranda Divine

    Modern Australia is in trouble. This country’s future is being undermined by:

    Gay judges and the intellectual left
    The Aboriginal Industry
    Rudd’s socialist agenda
    Latté drinking do-gooders
    Prams, sharks and naughty videos

    These people, urged on by Rudd’s chattering classes and anti-neo-conservative pap, are responsible for:

    Every bushfire, house fire and BBQ since 1788
    Claims that genocide wasn’t good for our Indigenous friends
    The hoax of global warming
    Mark Latham
    Taking guns from loving peaceful Australians

    Readers of my column will know that for many years I have been campaigning for:

    A statue in honour of Anita Bryant
    An end to all Aboriginal welfare … then an end to all Aboriginals
    Free parkas, ugh boots and overcoats for when it gets really cold
    Pauline Hanson
    Whatever daddy says

    These ignorant, self interest left wing people have an agenda that is threatening our survival in these tough economic times because they:

    Want an independent judiciary and fair IR laws
    Believe the fantasies of nig-nogs and fuzzy wuzzies
    Don’t understand the world is getting colder … much colder
    Think getting pissed on our beaches is un-Australian
    Love Muslims

    As a weekly columnist, I am able to write with such authority about these issues principally because I know more than anyone else about:

    Everything
    How Blacks lie to get compensation
    The science of global warming (I mean cooling…)
    Terrorist Muslim towel-heads
    Life outside my leafy secluded mansion

    And the reason I am in a position to make such dogmatic and rigid opinions is because I have:

    A cocaine habit
    A journalism degree
    Dirt on Rupert Murdoch
    A fantastic team of lawyers
    A daddy who got me my job

    However, my dire warnings about the terrible fate that will befall this country under Rudd’s extreme government are supported by:

    Bill Heffernan
    The Ku Klux Clan
    Andrew Bolt
    A taxi driver I once met
    Daddy

    Australia is no longer the open, caring compassionate and economic paradise it was under the brilliant and insightful leadership of John Howard and Peter Costello. What we desperately need in Australia is:

    No more poofter judges
    No more Abos and their fairytales
    Chemical castration
    To find out who’s hiding Mark Latham’s buck’s night video
    The slaughter of all sharks and whales

    I am not concerned by the many accusations, law suits, threats or personalised waste mater sent to me by Greenies, latté drinkers and the chronically unemployed, but what really upsets me is:

    Judicial independence
    The abolition of slavery
    Those interrupting bitches on Insiders
    Muslims on our beaches
    Whatever daddy says

    People often ask me why I don’t stand for federal parliament, given that I am so forthright in my views and know so much about so many issues. I would stand if:

    An MPs salary was increased at least 10 fold
    There were no dark skinned people in the electorate
    Peter Costello fondled my testicles
    I could just make everything up as I go along
    Daddy told me what to do ]

  10. [It doesn’t go back to the distillers because they didn’t pay the tax, the public did.]

    Incorrect. It is a tax levied on the distillers. They have receipts for the money they paid to the ATO, and if the validating legislation isn’t passed they will demand their money back. If they don’t get it, they will sue. Their lawyers will argue that their right to get their money back can’t be reversed by legislation, because that would be a retrospective confiscation of their property and hence unconstitutional.

  11. Excise is a good way to deal with substances that are harmful for two reasons. For one they reduce the problem by reducing the amount bought (and therefore consumed) and two they provide revenue for the government to deal with the problem. They are also easy to collect on products produced mainly on an industrial scale.

    Some fuels, alcohol and tobacco have excise in Australia now. Sugar, salt, various numbered food additives, cooking oil and various other majority and near majority fat products (butter, cream, margarine etc.) should be added to this list.

  12. [It is a tax levied on the distillers.]

    That would really suck!!

    They just passed the tax onto their product retail cost so they weren’t out of pocket. If the Government has to pay them the money back, it’s all pure profit for them. They should have to give it back to the consumer.

  13. [They just passed the tax onto their product retail cost so they weren’t out of pocket.]

    *Sigh* Such obtuseness. That’s the whole idea – to increase the cost of the product to the consumer. It’s called a market signal (see Adam Smith).

  14. Dio, i take it you would know of Christopher Cain? next door has just trundled today’s paper in to me and this gentleman apparently an ex head of the AMA had written an article very much pro the new hospital, looks like the medical profession is really divided.

  15. Julia is just devastating on any issue.

    I’ve just watched her tie the Liberals, Malcolm and Pete into an attempt via amendment, to re introduce workNOchoices even tho’ in opposition, by trying to get less workers eligible for redundancy pay.

    Smiling as she shafted them.

  16. [Julia is just devastating on this schools issue. The opposition will be wishing they didn’t ask those two questions.]
    I can paraphrase: “My question is the the Minister for Education, why hasn’t the Government spent the money the opposition opposed the Government spending?”

  17. JB

    Chris Cain is a complete knob. (Am I allowed to say that here?). He in no way represents the medical profession. He is almost universally hated.

  18. LOL …… I’ve heard that they are calling Costello the “leader in waiting” and it is so funny to actually “hear it” in Parliament just now 😉 …. not sure who this is (was out of the room when they called him to the dispatch box and I don’t recognize the face, must be a minor front bencher)

  19. When you hear Question Time’s like today, it is amazing anything gets done in this country.

    But the system works! We have our trivial arguments in parliament, instead of in the streets using bombs.

    Great answer by Emerson.

  20. [Diogenes……. You are Chris Cain?]
    So what’s happening today on World Net Daily? Give us a run down on today’s events in wacko christian nut jobbery.

  21. [Well Julia was nice enough to Brendan]
    It seems to be a tradition that the parliament is kind to former opposition leaders.

  22. BK,

    The only way to top Albanese —-> Rudd, to speaker ” … all further questions in the dispatch box …. ” and not give the Libs a chance to get a comeback to Albanese 😀

  23. I am just speechless, I am completely without speech!

    Recently I discussed on this site the foolishness of the Coalition’s political positioning and how it was ignnoring all the lessons of the 2007 election.

    But its moved on from foolishness to insanity.

    Benjamin Franklin who died in 1790 is credited with this quote about insanity:

    “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.”

    Albert Einstein who died in 1955 was also fond of using it.

    The Coalition who are dying politically as we watch, are the perfect example of the quotation in action.

    They have absolutely no idea what they are doing – none whatsoever!

    When a political party loses an election it’s wise to identify the reasons for that loss and then address those reasons with policies and personalities that will appeal to the electorate.

    So what were the reasons for the Coalition losing the 2007 Federal Election?

    The most comprehensive independent research comes from the Australian Election Study conducted by Professor Ian McAllister of the Australian National University.

    The three key findings of the research were:

    1. Industrial relations and global warming were the biggest vote changes

    2. Voters respected Mr Howard but strongly approved of Mr Rudd, giving him the highest “likeability” rating in the survey’s 20 -year history

    3. The Coalition would have struggled under Mr Costello, who had poorer approval/disapproval ratings than Paul Keating.

    So how has the Coalition responded?

    1. By continuing to fight the ALP over industrial relations and global warming, the two issues that overwhelmingly cost them the last election.

    2. Refusing to accept that after more than 2 years Kevin Rudd is still very popular, and rather than try to identify why, put it all down to a “honeymoon”.

    3. Believing that Peter Costello is the answer to their ills, who will ride in on a wave of popularity, urged on by a grateful public, sweeping away the ALP in a landslide that will make 1966 and 1975 look like tight races.

    What can I say? What can anyone say? Except to ask, “are they insane?”

  24. Adam

    [*Sigh* Such obtuseness. That’s the whole idea – to increase the cost of the product to the consumer.]

    Do you have to be so difficult? You have missed my point. I must be explaining myself poorly today.

    It depends on how the legislation was drafted. The tax can be paid by the consumer and *collected* by the distillery. Or it can be paid by the distillery. I thought that it was the former in this case, but I have been wrong before. Therefore the tax has not been paid by the distillery and should not be returned to them.

  25. what the hell is Turnbull doing up there ranting on? is any of the government in their side of the house? Turnbull seems to be trying for news sound bytes, the chamber seems unusually quiet, i went to empty the dishwasher and the chamber was in full swing and came back to this!!!!

  26. [It depends on how the legislation was drafted. The tax can be paid by the consumer and *collected* by the distillery. Or it can be paid by the distillery.]
    Even if it is paid by the distillery, they will just pass on the cost as higher prices for the consumer. So it ultimately doesn’t make a difference.

  27. A letter read out in QT a few days ago , from distillers telling their lot to hang on to their receipts should be proof of where the Alchopop tax monies allready collected will be going.

  28. We have a public heath system. People smoking and drinking cost the system, it is only fair they pay the cost as they consume the product, too late when they a bed ridden costing the system hundreds of dollars a day.

    There is humor in the outcome, it was all hands in deck to try and stop the tax and what have they got, a 50 million advertising campaign against their products. Perhaps there is a god!

  29. [Even if it is paid by the distillery, they will just pass on the cost as higher prices for the consumer. So it ultimately doesn’t make a difference.]
    It does to the consumer.

  30. [It does to the consumer.]
    How? The price is exactly the same if the tax is on consumption, or if the tax is on the distiller that passes it on the consumer.

    When you buy something from a shop, do you base your purchasing decision on the product’s taxation regime?

  31. [So it ultimately doesn’t make a difference.]

    Not to the end price but it does make a difference if Rudd has to refund the tax. If the distillery just collected the tax for the Government, they don’t get the refund, as they didn’t pay the tax.

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