Morgan: 60.5-39.5

Morgan’s latest polling release covers 955 respondents from last weekend’s face-to-face surveys, and shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 61.5-38.5 to 60.5-39.5. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 50.5 per cent, and the Coalition’s is up 1.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent. On top of which:

• Silly Steve Fielding joined with the Coalition on Wednesday to vote down government electoral reforms that would tie public funding for election candidates to their electoral expenditure, lower the threshold for disclosure of donations to $1000 from $10,000 (which the Howard government used its Senate majority to jack it up to), ban foreign donations and anonymous donations of over $50, and require parties to disclose donations every six months rather than annually. The sticking point is Fielding’s insistence that the government also arbitrarily cap public funding to political parties at $10 million. The bill was reintroduced to the House yesterday.

Submissions have been published in response to the federal government’s green paper on donations, funding and expenditure.

• Responding to mounting speculation she will take on Don Randall in Canning at the next federal election, senior Gallop/Carpenter government minister Alannah MacTiernan tells The West Australian: “It’s something that I’d consider but it’s far too early. The election is a long way away and it’s not something a decision can be made on until early next year.”

• The South Australian Liberals have picked a new candidate for the state seat of Mawson to replace former Kingston MHR Kym Richardson, who was charged in December with attempting to pervert the course of justice by impersonating a police officer. Matthew Donovan, described by the local Southern Times Messenger newspaper as a “self-employed importer and property developer”, won preselection ahead of Heidi Harris, adviser to Shadow Transport Minister Duncan McFetridge and unsuccessful candidate for federal preselection in Mayo; Heidi Greaves, public servant, former Onkaparinga councillor and unsuccessful candidate for Elder; and Alana Sparrow, Housing Industry Association lawyer and former media adviser to Richardson.

• The Daily Telegraph reports that NSW Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell “will hire a team of constitutional lawyers to explore recall provisions to end fixed four-year terms for incompetent governments”. This would involve provisions for the Governor to “sack a corrupt or useless government” if called on to do so by public petitions, presumably in a fashion similar to that which brought Arnold Schwarzenegger to power in California. UPDATE: More from a skeptical Imre Salusinszky at The Australian.

• Chris Back this week took his place in the Senate, filling the vacancy created by the departure of Western Australian Liberal Chris Ellison.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,149 comments on “Morgan: 60.5-39.5”

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  1. Barry O’Farrell had better be ready for this course of action to rebound sometime in the future when he starts to misfire badly.

  2. Some pretty interesting stuff in there.

    1) Wouldn’t Ms MacTiernan need to be pretty brave to try to win Canning?
    2) There is absolutely no way O’Farrell’s suggestion could work. It would give the Governor the ability to make a decision completely based on their own personal opinion, perhaps fueled by media beat ups… a really silly idea.
    3) Silly Steve Fielding indeed.

  3. More on that here, Adam.

    LTEP, if the legislation laid out very particularly the circumstances in which the Governor was to act, which I assume is what they have in mind, the measure need not be any worse than what happens in California. I leave it to your own judgement if you consider that a recommendation.

  4. [It would give the Governor the ability to make a decision completely based on their own personal opinion]

    That would indeed by a bad idea, but I think what he’s suggesting is a US-style recall by petition. In effect it would give the people the power to dissolve Parliament if a certain % signed a petition. The % would have to be set fairly high – 50% perhaps – and there would need to be rigorous signature verification procedures.

  5. # 2 A few assumptions in that post, Gary. As you keep reminding everyone, the NSW election is two years away and ‘anything could happen’ (ie. let’s not assume an ALP loss is a ‘given’ or that Barry O’Farrell will be the leader if the Liberal Party does win). The Opposition Leader’s idea is worthy of investigation (to see if it is constitutionally feasible). There will have to be a full and frank debate about it in the general community. And yes, Gary, you are right that any Liberal support for the idea could ‘backfire’ on the party at a future time (remember Nick Greiner and ICAC) but that in itself, does not stop it being a good idea.

  6. I just wonder about the impact of Peter Garrett rocking again on the Gen X & Y. Has he locked them sown up for Labor?

  7. Firstly, David, I only said Barry because he is the leader now. Maybe I should have said the Liberals. Secondly my assumption has been that the Liberals will win the NSW election and has been for sometime now, although ‘anything could happen’. If I were a betting man my money would be fairly and squarely on the Libs though.
    I agree with you when you say it could be a good idea. My post did not say otherwise, just that it could rebound because one day their government probably will eventually go bad and everyone will want their scalps. Have they really thought this through?

  8. The real reason it’s a bad idea (recall by petition, I mean) is that it would reinforce short-termism, which is already a serious vice in Australian politics. There are sometimes good reasons why governments need to do things which bring short-term unpopularity for long-term gain. Recall by petition would discourage serious efforts at structural reform and encourage more populist pandering, which we do not need more of.

  9. Recall eh?

    I don’t like the idea. STill think Rees should fall on his sword ie pass a motion of no confidence in himself and force an election before the Fed is due.

    GB, it should be a slaughter. Maybe lots of others, but still..

  10. To put it another way, Gen Y have grown up in an era in which the median house costs nearly 8x the median wage, and rents have shot up around 15% per year for each of the past several years.

  11. Finnigans 1276 previous thread,

    can you provide a URL for the lineup so I can know when others will be on? (besides Pete & co. bringing up the rear)

    Thanks 🙂

  12. When I left home we rented a four-bedroom house in South Clayton for $25 a week. We paid the rent by doing one night shift each a week at the Wattie-Pict frozen foods factory. That left the rest of the week for trotskyism / hippyism / transvestitism / whateverism.

  13. [doing one night shift each a week at the Wattie-Pict frozen foods factory]

    you are lucky. i was working in an iron foundry.

  14. trawler,

    The list of pumchees was a bit limited. They should have just cut and pasted the White Pages.

  15. Finnigans, HELLO …… [ only on the Melb concert. who gives a shirt about the Sydney one.

    ]

    a person after my own heart 😀 ……. but we will probably listen to both, mind you when we are home though as we will be out midday to early afternoon ….

    thanks much 🙂

  16. Is this petition idea of O’farrell’s the only way he thinks he can get into govt? lol. I thought the Libs are supposed to be unbeatable at the next election? Can’t wait 2 yrs then? Are the worried things might start picking up and the much maligned Rees gets re-elected? 😉
    So in other words peoples’ democratic right to vote in a Labor govt 2 yrs ago should be overturned if the useless opposition party can’t get itself elected by fair means and instead get their lawyers to say who should be in power. We’ll decide who you vote for!!!! Hmm what party is it again that is full of lawyers?

  17. [doing one night shift each a week at the Wattie-Pict frozen foods factory]

    It was a doddle. I slept most of the night, putting in an occasional appearance with a broom. $50, cash in hand, plus all the frozen food you could steal (quite a lot actually). Enough to live for a week and still have change.

  18. Hang on, so Kym Richardson looks like being charged, along with having some interesting other skeletons in his closet and it turns out the man Trish Draper rorted travel allowance for was a murder suspect. Both were running for the Libs at the state level.

    Don’t the federal Libs have any recently departed federal MPs who aren’t embarrassing they could run. Wait… No. Can’t think of any.

  19. [Wen: China ready to put forward new stimulus package (Xinhua) – BEIJING — China has prepared plans to cope with even bigger difficulties amid the financial crisis and is ready to put forward new stimulus package at any time, said Premier Wen Jiabao here Friday.

    Wen, while meeting press after the annual parliament session, said China has made long-time preparations to tackle the impact of the international financial crisis. The country has formulated plans to cope with even worse conditions and has reserved plenty of “ammunition”, he said.

    “We are ready to put forward new stimulus policies at any time,” Wen said.

    “We will provide housing to 7.5 million low-income Chinese in three years, and provide better shelter for 2.4 million Chinese who still live in shacks,” the premier said.]

    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009npc/2009-03/13/content_7576028.htm

    The Great Recession with the East is glowing slightly Red. Wen is confident of achieving 8% growth and recovery starts by 2010. If the Chinese can pull this off, it will alter the global geo-political landsacpe. Especially if Obama falters.

  20. [The Great Recession with the East is glowing slightly Red. Wen is confident of achieving 8% growth and recovery starts by 2010.]
    8% is slow for China, it has averaged 10% over the last decade.

  21. It is important to understand that China is still going thorugh a period of massive transition, with millions of people moving from peasant lifestyles in the country to paid jobs in the city every year. I saw one estiamte that China’s econmy needs to grow by at least 5% per annum just to soak up this trend (no growth in income for anyone else).

    The Chinese already havea stimulus in place of over $500Bn US, which will make a big difference once it kicks in. Expect they will do better in 2010 off the back of more domestic demand. If they succeed, I agree with Finns; the world will be fundamentally different and China and US will be far more level in economic power.

  22. [Just want to see the Oils and my relo, the Finn brothers in Enz. Yes, six months for Turnbull in a leaky boat.]

    Saw Neil of the Finns last weekend – he’s in fine form.

  23. [If they succeed, I agree with Finns; the world will be fundamentally different and China and US will be far more level in economic power.]
    I don’t think so. It will still be an overwhelmingly poor country. GDP per capita in China is estimated to be US$3000, and predicted to be $10,000 in a decade. GDP per capita in the U.S. is US$40,000, which is one reason it is such a powerful country.

  24. LTEP at 3:

    [ Wouldn’t Ms MacTiernan need to be pretty brave to try to win Canning? ]

    Brave-ish. It’s currently about 4% to the Libs, but there’s a few reasons to believe it might be winnable and keepable for Labor (though it’ll probably always be a marginal seat). See the WA thread for further info. 😉

  25. Don’t worry Adam, Turnbull is seen as a joke anyway. Only the rusted-ons are blaming Labor for the GFC and the job losses.

  26. Adam, you’re in government and ahead in the polls even if the ABC are biased which they arent would it really make all that difference???

    BTW will the QLD results be on ABC2???

  27. Glen as you know I have been sceptical about the allegations of ABC bias here, and I don’t see/hear enough media to make an overall judgement. But a story on unemployment in which the *only* political comment came from Turnbull is cleary a one-sided story.

  28. Adam what about stories where there is only the Government Minister and no rebuttle from the Opposition…these things happen.

    But i do think questions in parliament about where are the 75,000 promised new jobs will be difficult for even Gillard to spin. 😉

  29. I wonder how long will it take for criticism to start about Peter Garrett doing the Oils gig while QLD is having the oils pollution. yes, Garrett is responsible for the oils. Oils is oils.

  30. Finns not as badly as the QLD Minister who was drinking wine at Harvey Bay while all this was going on…

    LOL really the ALP in QLD have only Bligh the rest are duds…

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