Morgan: 60.5-39.5

Morgan’s latest polling release covers 955 respondents from last weekend’s face-to-face surveys, and shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 61.5-38.5 to 60.5-39.5. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 50.5 per cent, and the Coalition’s is up 1.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent. On top of which:

• Silly Steve Fielding joined with the Coalition on Wednesday to vote down government electoral reforms that would tie public funding for election candidates to their electoral expenditure, lower the threshold for disclosure of donations to $1000 from $10,000 (which the Howard government used its Senate majority to jack it up to), ban foreign donations and anonymous donations of over $50, and require parties to disclose donations every six months rather than annually. The sticking point is Fielding’s insistence that the government also arbitrarily cap public funding to political parties at $10 million. The bill was reintroduced to the House yesterday.

• Submissions have been published in response to the federal government’s green paper on donations, funding and expenditure.

• Responding to mounting speculation she will take on Don Randall in Canning at the next federal election, senior Gallop/Carpenter government minister Alannah MacTiernan tells The West Australian: “It’s something that I’d consider but it’s far too early. The election is a long way away and it’s not something a decision can be made on until early next year.”

• The South Australian Liberals have picked a new candidate for the state seat of Mawson to replace former Kingston MHR Kym Richardson, who was charged in December with attempting to pervert the course of justice by impersonating a police officer. Matthew Donovan, described by the local Southern Times Messenger newspaper as a “self-employed importer and property developer”, won preselection ahead of Heidi Harris, adviser to Shadow Transport Minister Duncan McFetridge and unsuccessful candidate for federal preselection in Mayo; Heidi Greaves, public servant, former Onkaparinga councillor and unsuccessful candidate for Elder; and Alana Sparrow, Housing Industry Association lawyer and former media adviser to Richardson.

• The Daily Telegraph reports that NSW Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell “will hire a team of constitutional lawyers to explore recall provisions to end fixed four-year terms for incompetent governments”. This would involve provisions for the Governor to “sack a corrupt or useless government” if called on to do so by public petitions, presumably in a fashion similar to that which brought Arnold Schwarzenegger to power in California. UPDATE: More from a skeptical Imre Salusinszky at The Australian.

• Chris Back this week took his place in the Senate, filling the vacancy created by the departure of Western Australian Liberal Chris Ellison.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,149 comments on “Morgan: 60.5-39.5”

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  2. [But i do think questions in parliament about where are the 75,000 promised new jobs will be difficult for even Gillard to spin.]
    The answer to that question is simple, after the package has had its effect, the jobs would’ve been created IN AUSTRALIA.

    UEFO clearly shows that the first package will have its effect after 1 year of its introduction. So by December this year we can confidently say there will be 75,000 more jobs IN AUSTRALIA compared with if the package hadn’t been adopted by the parliament, with bipartisan support.

  4. Glen spells rebuttal as rebuttle which stamps it as an ill educated Gen Y or X yob. Which is it, Glen?

    ps: you do know there is a spell checker in your browser?

  5. [China is estimated to be US$3000, and predicted to be $10,000 in a decade. GDP per capita in the U.S. is US$40,000]

    By then, the USA GDP per capita will probably fall to $25K.

    $10,000 x 1.3 Billion people = $13 trillion

    $25,000 x 300 million people = $7.5 trillion

    Who will be the pretty boy then?

  6. He is the Minister, Sir Humphrey Appleby would be appalled…

    Adam he isnt going to win his seat so why doesnt he do something for his CV and act like a Minister.

  7. Albert if you have something positive to contribute to this blog other than pointing out spelling errors (which we all make from time to time) then i suggest you go elsewhere!

  8. Because like all ALP politicians, Glen, he is capable of doing more than one thing at a time. The oil slick is being dealt with by the people whose job it is to deal with it. It’s the minister’s job to see that the response happening, which he is doing. The fact the shipowners lied to the government about how much oil had been split obviously doesn’t help matters.

  9. [By then, the USA GDP per capita will probably fall to $25K.]
    I doubt it. it will probably be the same it is now in real terms.

  10. [I wonder how long will it take for criticism to start about Peter Garrett doing the Oils gig while QLD is having the oils pollution. yes, Garrett is responsible for the oils. Oils is oils.]
    Bob Brown is politicing for all his worth in Qld.
    [“The midnight oil has struck these beaches but the environmental leader’s nowhere to be seen,” Senator Brown told reporters in Brisbane.
    “This is a very serious environmental contamination, it should never have happened.”]
    that’s right Bob, Labor caused the cyclone and they own the tanker and just for good measure they chucked the containers overboard and took an axe to the oil tanks,
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/13/2516010.htm

  11. There you go, Adam. Now you begin to appreciate what some of us who listen to AM and PM pretty much all the time, and who check ABC News Online, are whinging about. There was also the piece on PM about how the gov’t., and the PM in particular, had promised a response to the 2020 summit by December, and here it was March, and, this time, they’d tried to get a response from the PM’s Dept., and nothing. There was some feeble questions to whomever they had on from the Libs. about the distractions of the Global Financial Fiasco and the bushfires, but the cliched Lib. central talking points response was in no way challenged.
    I used to respect the AM and PM programs, particularly, but now wonder what on earth is going on.

  12. Vera, that’s a pretty low blow from Bob Brown. So, in addition to his day job as a Fed. Minister, performing at a number of concerts for the bushfire folk, he should be telling the Q’l’d to rack off and he’ll organise the clean up?

  13. Bob Brown has hit the gutter, I live in Coolum where there is oil on the beach. Bob go back to Tasmania and stop playing slime ball politics. 🙁

  14. HSO just goes to show that Brown is not above politics as some like to pretend, nothing like using a disaster to try to swing a few votes your way. If there wasn’t a Qld election next week he wouldn’t even be there.

    ABC even choose their open for comment threads to give the Libs a helping hand
    [Bligh under fire over oil spill
    Govt under pressure over ‘shameless’ ANZ job cuts
    Opposition anger on ‘farcical’ ETS inquiry]

  18. [really? where – serious question, I’ve often wished I did have one.]
    Firefox comes with an American-English spellchecker by default.

  19. [Bob Brown can play cheap populist politics with the best of them when he wants to]

    Bob Brown always plays this way. The Green’s problem is who replaces him? He is 65.
    when will genarational change become an issue for the Greens?

    Or will he be replaced by a Green Party Hack? 😛

  20. [Springborg wants to cut spending by $1 billion:]

    At every single election the conservatives try to pull this trick. Their leader promises to cut spending and cut taxes, while at the same time their shadow ministers and candidates go around promising to throw money at every problem in every marginal seat. Usually the media are too lazy to pick them up on the dishonesty of these contradictory promises.

  22. [The Green’s problem is who replaces him? He is 65.
    when will genarational change become an issue for the Greens?]

    Damn good point rua. He’s the Michael Hutchence of the Greens. (if you get my drift)

  23. Further to my whinge about the specific ABC programs, Adam, is precisely this sort of so-called “reporting”. Vera’s listing of the topics for open comment is another example of what causes my blood pressure to rise. This is not impartial, and I’ve noticed a steady increase in this sort of behaviour from, as I said, programs I previously regarded as reasonably reliable and impartial.

  26. [Colin Barnett slams Rudd over GST revenue for WA:]

    My God an Liberal Premier criticising an ALP PM!

    Wow, case closed. You got us there. We got nothing to come back with.

  27. Hopefully, Barnett and Springborg will team up at the next COAG and condemn Rudd for cutting funds to the boom states.

  28. [The Green’s problem is who replaces him?]

    Part of that problem is that all of the current Greens Senators represent a minority of The Green vote.

    To illustrate – The Greens Senators are from:

    2 x WA
    SA
    2 x Tasmania

    The combined Greens vote in those three states was 236,000 at the last election. The Greens vote in NSW alone was 353,000. The total Greens vote was over 1 million.

    So 100% of the Greens representation in the Parliament comes from less than 25% of their voter base.

  30. [So 100% of the Greens representation in the Parliament comes from less than 25% of their voter base.]

    Unrepresentative Swill. 😛 😉

  31. Bree, why do you bother here? Try the ABC open for comments thingy. You’ll find all sorts of people to agree with you and offer up equally insightful comments. You’ll have a ball. Really.

  32. All states will have a cut in GST revenue, why? Its a friggin consumption tax. Even before the Grants Commission ruling the QLd Govt. was budgeting for a $150 million cut.

    Has the WA Govt. figured out that there is a teeny weeny problem with consumption at the moment?

    Which Govt. is spending billions to boost consumption?

  33. It’s part of the Young Liberal training process. They have to go and spend time on a hostile blog. You’ll notice all of last year’s LibBots have gone. They’ve either graduated or flunked out. Bree is obviously a rank beginner, not even in Glen’s class, so I think he/she will be here for a while.

  34. Bob Brown has to be one of the most least effective politicians in National Parliament of all time. Can anyone point to any achievements.

  35. Time now for story of giving from those who can least afford it. Thank you PNG
    [Today in Port Moresby PNG’s Governor-General, Sir Paulias Matane, handed the Australian High Commissioner Chris Moraitis a cheque for 118,000 kina (about $66,000).

    “A hundred thousand kina doesn’t sound like much by Australian standards, but it’s an extremely big amount for Papua New Guineans,” Mr Matane said.

    “Even people giving 10, 20 kina, that’s a lot of money, that’s the difference between a week’s supply for dinner or not.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/13/2516045.htm?section=justin

  36. [You’ll notice all of last year’s LibBots have gone]

    At least I found ESJ: 🙂
    [ARIA chairman Ed St John said it was encouraging to see the growth and enormous potential in digital music sales.

    “Whilst the physical CD still accounts for the bulk of album sales, and the CD retail business is still alive and well, digital albums represent a significant opportunity for the industry,” he said. ]
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25172066-26103,00.html

  38. Adam the LibBots are either doing post grad degrees or mutual obligation at a Job Network provider. Not much time for blog stirring in either case.

  40. Harray “Snapper” Organs

    I got it right I hope!

    I think William wants a diversity of opinion, and it does save time skipping over to the Australian to get the rusted on Liberal point of view. 🙂

  42. [Bob Brown has to be one of the most least effective politicians in National Parliament of all time. Can anyone point to any achievements.]

    GG, He was in the Muppet Show, being Green.

  43. Where have the LibBots gone? I see plenty of them responding to ABC News stories. The participation by Liberals is so intense I’m sure it’s an organised campaign.

  46. What “achievements” can the leader of a Senate corner party have? He has raised the profile of the Greens, he has taken them from one Senator to five, he has driven the Dems to extinction, he has established a reputation (deserved) for integrity and (mostly deserved) for seriousness, he has pushed lost causes like Tibet and Burma as well as “green” issues. He is right about 75% of the time at a rough guess. Not a bad record. His weakest area is economics, where he is an old-fashioned marxist. I can’t see a worthwhile successor in the Senate. Milne is too bossy, Siewert too flaky and angry, Ludlam too low-key, Hanson-Young far too young. I thought the plan was for Andrew Wilkie to succeed Brown in his Senate seat and become leader.

  48. Adam,

    With great respect, it doesn’t add up to much really. Did he stop Hansonism, did he stop the GST, did he stop privatisation, did he stop the vilification of refugees?

    Really, he’s been a bystander wringing his hands as the real issues affecting most Australians have unfolded.

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