Essential Research: 58-42

The latest weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 58-42, down from 60-40 last week and 62-38 the week before. Also featured are yet more questions on the global financial crisis and one on the recent activities of Peter Costello, of which most respondents take a dim view. Also:

• The government’s second go at the Commonwealth Electoral Amendment (Political Donations and Other Measures) Bill passed the House of Representatives yesterday. Daryl Melham, Labor’s member for Banks and chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, had some harsh words during the debate for Family First Senator Steve Fielding, who joined with the Coalition to reject the earlier version of the bill in the Senate last week.

• The redistribution of Tasmanian electorates (which uniquely applies to both federal and state elections) has been finalised, with only minor amendments to the boundaries as originally proposed. These have very slightly weakened Labor’s position in both Braddon and Franklin. More from Antony Green.

• The Electoral Commissioner has determined quotas for Queensland and New South Wales, the first stage in the redistributions that will give a new seat to the first at the expense of the second.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,741 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42”

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  3. Normally Parliament doesn’t sit on Fridays, but given it is sitting then won’t QT follow given it’s in the standing orders?

  5. Made that up, the wetmale. Have to work it out for yourself.

    And not too sure about the price, Shows On, it is only what I heard..betcha round the mark, though, especially compared to simple things, like orange juice.

    An orange juice in a pub is about the same price as another drink, per.

  6. [And not too sure about the price, Shows On, it is only what I heard..betcha round the mark, though, especially compared to simple things, like orange juice.]
    I heard on radio that the ones with around 7% of alcohol will drop by about $1, the ones with around 5% will drop by nearly $2

  7. Now Mary-Jo Fisher is reading out an article from The Australian by Brand Norington!

    On behalf of the State of South Australia, I apologise for the parliamentary reject that is Senator Fisher.

  13. So we spent half an hour with Fisher telling the Government to water down the Awards so that workers have less rights, and now we are going to spend the same time talking about the Green amendments where they want the Awards to offer more protections.

  15. Why is the liberal party replete with so many nasty types?

    It is plain listening to the Senate that for the Liberal Party
    Ordinary Australians = trash,
    Business = everything.

    We did not hear one word from the Liberals in the Senate about the conditions of employees, ordinary Australians yet, who votes? Who do they represent except individuals? Yet not one word on them. Are they not elected to represent individuals?

    There has not been the slightest concern from the Liberal Party under Howard or now under Turnbull for Australians. This is not a party that is about serving the Australian people.

    And yet X and Fielding may well be supporting these people?

    Bishop and Erica are both creepy to watch. They have that single minded coldheartedness that seem to not be interested in anything but to ensure Australians get no breathing space.

  16. [We did not hear one word from the Liberals in the Senate about the conditions of employees,]

    True, everything was on behalf of business.

  18. To be fair, the Liberals came to the party and agreed to a lot of the Government’s amendments related to sweat shops. They opposed a heap of others related to union entry of sweat shops, but thankfully Fielding changed his mind and supported them at the 11th hour (he literally stood up and said he would oppose them, then 15 minutes later voted for them!)

  20. [To be fair, the Liberals came to the party and agreed to a lot of the Government’s amendments related to sweat shops.]

    But really the Opposition deserves no credit for doing what they should be bound to do. We should feel grateful that they go a little way in respecting the non WorkChoices mandate. It is like feeling grateful to an unrepentant criminal because they behave themselves for a few minutes.

  24. [Well this year has given me an increased respect for the Greens under BB.]
    Brown speaks more sense than Fielding, Minchin and Betz.

  27. I disagree with Grattan on this.

    The electorate would be less likely to change horses in the middle of an economic crisis (and on this occassion maybe for the first time clearly seen as the fault of external forces) especially if they think the Government is doing the right thing and doing all that is possible. Labor’s rise in the public’s estimation on economic management speaks to this.

    Grattan cannot compare this to the State governments who had been long term governments ousted or nearly ousted before any GFC had struck. The same in Qld where the Labor is clearly the more competent, but people seem looking for a change for its own sake. Rudd Labor is a new government that has been performing well and has maintained high estimation. AND the L&NP has significantly damaged their own brand in the meantime.

    I believe (without a 3 month crystal ball) that Rudd Labor would win a DD and especially if it were on IR which would be seen as a reasonable cause.

    The Senate composition would also likely change to one at least a little more favourable, and that is all that is needed.

    I think the L&NP would be the one’s affraid of this prospect. And if their IR does get blocked then it could put it again. The pressure would be on Fielding and the L&NP to let it through, including Green amendments.

    [The Government sits on a slim majority and premature elections have a habit of going badly. Bob Hawke was riding high in 1984 but lost seats.

    One reason Kevin Rudd is so popular is that people trust him. By and large, he does what he says he will do. If he called an early poll, cynicism would wipe out some, if not a great deal, of this trust. The risk in these uncertain times would be high. Conversely, assuming Labor was returned, the chances of a double dissolution improving Labor’s position in the Senate would be low. ]
    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/bruised-and-broke-labor-readies-for-the-budget-round-20090319-937w.html?page=2

  31. It’s official:

    [The Senate has unanimously passed the Government’s Fair Work Bill after debating it into the early hours of this morning.

    One of the key changes is that it has expanded the number of firms that will be considered as small businesses for unfair dismissals.

    Despite the unanimous vote, a stand-off still looms because the Government is unlikely to accept the Senate’s amendments, when the bill is returned to the House of Representatives later today.

    But the Deputy Opposition Leader Eric Abetz has praised the Government for its approach in the Senate.

    “The compromises that have been reached over the past few days are sensible and reflect well on the operations of the Senate,” he said]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/20/2521274.htm

  32. There is something I don’t understand here.

    Why would the Government vote for something in the Senate and then vote against it in the House of Reps?

  33. [Why would the Government vote for something in the Senate and then vote against it in the House of Reps?]

    The way I understand it BW is that the bill itself is passed but there are amendments that are not right, like the number of employees not covered being increased from 15 to 20.

    The bill returns to the reps which will vote against the senate amendments and insist that employees covered should be 15 and not 20.

    Some news services, such as news and abc, are being mischevious by saying that the govt bill has been passed, it hasn’t, it is more the oppositions bill with the amendments. One news service reports it correctly as the govt’s bill with amendments.

  34. [Normally Parliament doesn’t sit on Fridays, but given it is sitting then won’t QT follow given it’s in the standing orders?]

    No. The Senate/House of Reps are only suspending (rather than adjourning), so really today is just a continuation of yesterday’s sittings (and QT already happened).

  35. Fielding and Abbott got their way on “Malco-pops”, why are these 2 so much in favour.

    “Malco-pops are the drink of young teens, you can keep drinking malco-pops and not know how drunk you are until you fall over. Drunk teens lose inhibitions very quickly, usually resulting in teenage pregnancy, the restrictions on RU486 and baby bonus mean more christian babies, as Muslims don’t drink. Everybodies a winner.

    Be interesting to see teenage pregnancy statistics during the first malco-pops era when they were taxed low, Abbott had his ban on RU486 and Costellos’ baby bonus were in play. Then compare them to when malco-pops were taxed, the restrictions on RU486 were relaxed (though still very hard to get), and the baby bonus was no longer a lump sum. Then compare them to Fieldings and Abbotts new tax free malco-pop era.

    If Fielding and Abbott are insisting on making these cheap wonderful drinks available to young kiddies then the least that should be done is to sell them with condoms or RU486 so as to try and stop some of these unwanted pregnancies.

    The other side to these malco-pops teenage pregnancies is the risk of alcohol damage to the fetus and young baby which could severely impair development. Though I suppose this wouldn’t stop them becoming a coalition senator or minister even.

  36. La Grattan is spot on.

    [Complicating the Government’s negotiations with the Senate is that the crossbenchers are in permanent competition with each other. Their demands are sometimes conflicting and they are always jostling for limelight.

    The Fielding-Xenophon rivalry was highlighted on Wednesday when they ran against each other for the final place on a Senate inquiry into the emissions trading scheme. Xenophon won 38-30 in a secret ballot of the Senate.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/bruised-and-broke-labor-readies-for-the-budget-round-20090319-937w.html?page=-1

    Let me repeat, two pygmies who think they are giant.

    Democracy? yes, they are DEMOntrating that they are CRAZY.

  37. [If I were a Union in SA I would be going about Xenophon’s electorate smearing his name from dawn to dusk. The enemy of the people just when they needed protection.]

    Sigh. Do the math. With 6 spots, it’s highly likely to be 3 ALP 3 Lib without him, or 2 ALP 2 Lib 1 Xen 1 Grn with him, because that’s the way the cookie crumbles with those percentage numbers. 2 Lib is better than 3 Lib. And again, without him, we’d have been given another coalition Senate majority, needing to get the opposition to vote for everything the government wants in order to pass legislation.

  39. The Pine Bark Beetles have observed the discussions in the Australian senate with relish and are grateful that so much time and energy is being wasted on things that completely distract Australian people from the true consequences of climate change.

    In particular, the Pine Bark Beetles extend their hearty congratulations to Senator Fielding – what a cracker of a politician! With chaps like that around, the glorious future of the Pine Bark Beetle Empire is virtually assured. The Pine Bark Beetles are also grateful that the Opposition does not know whether it is coming or going. Thanks chaps. Excellent amounts of time and energy wasted to no good purpose. Well done.

    The Pine Bark Beetles also wish to welcome formally two newcomers to California.

    These are the Redhaired Pine Bark Beetle and the Mediterranean Engraver. Both are from outside the US, both having apparently received a lift across from the old world in timber supplies, and both are happily munching their way through Californian conifers, probably helped, as it turns out, by the unusual dryness there. The drought is not only making it easy for the beetles, it is devastating the Californian irrigation industry in much the same way as that little dryness is still devastating the Murray Darling Irrigation Industry.

    The ease with which these pine bark beetles have made the transition from Europe to the US has heightened anticipation amongst the Pine Bark Beetles that all those Eurasian conifers are just there for the taking now that the Eurasian winters are just not having so many days of sub-forty degrees.

    The Pine Bark Beetles are also delighted that all the CO2 that gets liberated from decaying conifers will speed global warming and hence make even more conifers accessible to the Pine Bark Beetles. It is just like a magic pudding!

    http://collegian.csufresno.edu/2009/03/18/infestation/

  40. [SENIOR Federal Government ministers plan an intense election-style campaign designed to direct worker anxiety over job losses against the Coalition and to put Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership under pressure if the Senate rejects Labor’s industrial relations legislation.

    With the Government heading for a confrontation with the Senate, the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, yesterday accused the Opposition of frustrating the electorate’s will on industrial relations and exposing workers to having entitlements such as redundancy pay ripped away as the economy slowed.

    The Workplace Relations Minister, Julia Gillard, said 700,000 workers would lose protections against unfair sacking under Opposition-backed amendments to the Fair Work Bill.

    The Government plans to use the Parliamentary recess to re-run the 2007 election debate on industrial relations if the Senate waters down Labor’s unfair dismissal protections.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-to-undermine-turnbull-over-ir-laws-20090319-93cr.html

  42. Grattan has lost the plot- Labor BRUISED??? Has she seen the POLLS? Why are commentators so disconnected from reality

  43. [Information provided to the Australian Electoral Commission shows the Distilled Spirits Industry Council of Australia gave $69,670 to the Liberals in 2007-08, with $42,400 going to the federal Liberal Party and the rest being split among state branches, including a $20,000 donation to the Victorian division.

    The alcohol industry body also gave $5000 to the NSW branch of the Labor Party. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25213431-2702,00.html

    I found this snippet in the OO

  45. Regarding the Parliament sitting today, the live broadcasting website says 9 – 1 for the Senate Standing Committee, 9 – 5 for the HOR and 9 – 5 for the Senate. Anyone’s guess if things will actually roll onto 5pm but you guys ought to be good to go any minute now on News Radio and/or the channels on TV 🙂

  46. TP 1523 and ShowsOn 1524

    I agree on Brown’s performance this year. He has been pragmatic not an idealogue, and at the same time has adopted consistent positions in defence of core issues of human rights and workers rights. I think this broader approach will win him a lot of votes from ex democrat supporters, amoung others (me included). The Greens would love a DD now. If they remained reasonable in negotiations with Labor, a Senate where they held the balance of power sans Fielding would be workable for Rudd.

  48. There is a good article on the cost of renewable energy – less than the stimulus for converting the whole Australian power industry:
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/energy-smart/green-power-solution-at-hand-for-little-cost-experts-20090319-93fa.html

    This is entirely consistent with my experience of wind power economics in SA. It is now quite viable, the only problem is lack of investment in the (coal orientated) grid to get the power to Adelaide. So why can’t we get a realistic ETS? Sooner or later some unions in Labor are going to have to face the fact that the future of the coal industry is limited, especially brown coal. Improvements in alternative energy technology and costs may make it the more expensive option anyway. Waiting till all current workers retire is not an acceptable pace of change. Why not face the inevitable and develop a strategy to retrain/redeploy them to other things now? Mining industry economists will explode in rage, but after the GFC we all know how much to believe economists now.

  49. Radio Australia news (chamber isn’t actually sitting *yet*) says Gvt. WILL reject the undesirable ammendments and send it back.

  50. Micheal Costa’s views are of no relevance. Like, Peter Walsh before him, he’s an embarrassment to Labor politics and should stay very very quiet or join the Liberals. The Liberal’s is his ideological home and would be where he would be if he didn’t enjoy the bully boy power of the unions so much .

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