The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead back up to 57-43 after two fortnights at 55-45. No figures yet provided to back up its headline “Costello wanted as leader”. Hat tip yet again to James J.
UPDATE: Graphic here. It shows Peter Costello’s rating as preferred Liberal leader up to 41 per cent from 23 per cent in April (wrongly labelled in the graphic as April 2007), Brendan Nelson up from 15 per cent to 18 per cent and Malcolm Turnbull down from 25 per cent to 24 per cent – bearing in mind that 19 per cent has been freed up because Julie Bishop and Tony Abbott were not included in the question this time.
UPDATE 2 (31/7/08): Further attitudinal polling, including the finding that the Prime Minister is 3 per cent less experienced than he was six months ago.
UPDATE 3: Suggested Newspoll question format for next time: Is Rudd experienced? Has he ever been experienced?
The Finnigans @ 72 –
Beware. QANTAS is flying on pure luck at the moment.
Probably, but I suggest no more than usual.
It looks like last weeks incident was caused by an exploding oxygen bottle. Something which apparently has never happened before and presumably was not thought a danger.
And yesterday’s drama is more sensationalism than cause for concern. It wasn’t the first time that a wheel well door has failed to fully close and it won’t be the last. But at no stage was the aircraft in jeopardy. The only effect was some minor vibration. Maybe scary, definitely inconvenient, but not a danger.
Costello’s popularity seems to have risen significantly since he left the country. Could we make it a permanent arrangement please?
JoM
After the Newspoll resuilts where ar you , a disciple of th flat earth Andrew Bolt religion Newspoll has quantified a total of 12% who do not believe th earth is warming Now th other argument you had with me was man was not responsible for CC , well you did alot better there , only 3% agree with you , and 97% disagree with you
I think th Newspoll results demonstrate the punters themselves think CC deniers ar irelevant
97 Steve
If they make the wrong decision today, with these Newspoll figures in front of them they deserve everything they are going to get, inc extinction–don’t forget Possum’s article re over 70s dying off and taking their pro-Coalition stance with them. 20 seats within 10 years are at stake for the Fibs IIRC
steve
I don’t reckon I’ve been much more frustrated than when I saw Hockey on one of those group talkfest shows this year and he was asked about opposition policy on something and he flat out refused to talk about it lest he might ‘give away’ something the government might steal and use. Seriously.
I know pollies on both sides have this mentality.
They are obviously so bunkered in their own little world that they don’t even see the big picture that they are part of a process for governing the country for all of us.
Of course the media’s inability to see past the first disadvantaged and discuss compromise and progress rationally doesn’t help. And as Bushfire has been banging on about though – the fact that the country doesn’t have a perceived common direction just compounds the situation.
Leaving out Bishop and Abbott from the choices is one way to inflate Costello’s numbers. Why else would this be done?
Why not go all the way – take your pick, just Costello or Chris Pyne. LOL.
“It looks like last weeks incident was caused by an exploding oxygen bottle. Something which apparently has never happened before and presumably was not thought a danger”
It has happened before. There is a DC 9 in about one million bits at the bottom of the Everglades (which is basically two metres of swamp on top of solid limestone but you get the picture) and the crash was caused by an oxy explosion. Bad luck for the passengers but great news for the alligators. The plane was ValueJet which I believe is now out of business. Perhaps not. But the cavalier attitude of Qantas, from Dixon down, to everything regarding cost-cutting is going to have it’s inevitable conclusion one day.
On another note, a friend of mine who flies in high circles (pun intended) met the Qantas CEO at a bank function said he had never met anyone who had a such an intense dislike for other humans. Strong stuff, and from someone not prone to describing people like that.
bryce, why muddy the Newscorp stable’s numbers by having Pyne’s name there? Marcos,Saddam and Mugabe have showed them how it is done. Just ask do you agree that Peter Costello would make a lovely Opposition leader and just accept yes as the answer. There would be walls coming done, champagne guzzled and free popcorn to celebrate in every Murdoch office in the country. They could even write of ‘overwhelming support’ from the voters.
If my maths is right that’s 59% who don’t want Costello as leader.
I think Bushfire & othr posters hav over rated Captain Smirk , merely calling him gutless He and Bolt ar soul mates and friends going back to there Uni student days , and share th same fatal trait
Th Media always hav protrayed Cossie as the Gunna man , Cossie was always gunna do something , was always gunna to challenge , but pop nothing ever happened Cossie & Bolt are th ultimate liberals , th born to rule set and they beleive it as there right Most Liberal MP’s see themselves as part of the Liberal Party I reckon Costello sees himself above the Liberal Party , a birthright right to rule Captain Smirk has never challenged because he expected to be drafted , and has always expected to be drafted , an as he puts his brillcream on in Fiji today , he is still waitning for “that call” still , to be drafted
His smirk in infamious , but notice the reverse smirk , the sneeer when he wishs to dismiss an unwanted queston , almost haughty Do not be generous and just call the Gunna man gutless Peter Costello is a complete conviction politican of Peter Costello He expects ‘the call’ to be drafted , and probabley has driven Andrew Bolt crazy over th years asking where has that call to be drafted gone to , A born to rule man , in his mind
please please let Peter be leader of the Libs :wicked:
as in 😈
If I’m the minority in relation to climate change then why are you waisting your time with me Ron?
Has Newspoll asked who who is your preffered choice of Prime Ministerr Kevin Rudd or Peter Costello?
ron and JoM
I wouldn’t be quite as enthused with the Newspoll results on CC as ron is. It’s frowned on (sorry JoM) to be denying CC at the moment so the pollsters get told what the polled think makes them look good. But in the quiet of the ballot box, with no-one looking on, its much easier to say “Bugger climate change”. Its the Bradley effect all over again.
The polls here in Ozland have been very consistent:
1. Labor is about 10% in front of the Coalitions on a 2PP: 55-45
2. Rudd is 50% infront of Nelson as the PPM: 65-15
3. 70% of the punters want action now on CC regardless of what others do.
I think this is a very solid foundation for Rudd to really do something significant and of long term value on CC for Australia as well as for the rest of the World. With a solid foundation like this, if he can’t, he does not deserve to win the next election.
I bet the Dems in the US election wish they have similar consistent poll numbers for their candidate. Obama seems unable to shake off McCain like Rudd has shaken off Nelson (as the PPM: 65-15). There is even a new Gallup poll today that says McCain is 4% infront of Obama. interesting.
The careerist do nothing set of decisions will be to:
(1) sincerely acknowledge that there is a problem with too much CO2 and assert they are complete, unanimous agreement with IPCC findings;
(2) sincerely look like they are sort of doing something practical as soon as reasonably possible but not with the Rudd Government’s unseemly, reckless haste and, of course, definitely not too late, no;
(3) have no negative impact on anybody, especially the big end of town, working families, children, industries, unions, miners, small business, fishers, farmers, car drivers, truck drivers, all other known sectors, voters, home owners, first home buyers, renters and populist careerists; (only green economic satanists will miss out).
(4) avoid getting too real until somebody important somewhere else does something, sometime and definitely not before the next election;
(5) ignore what is happening in Europe;
(6) allocate some notional funding to alternatives including un-means testing solar hot water; a bit more wind; and some more biofuel subsidies to keep the LNP happy;
(7) call for speeding up funding for that ultimate oxymoron, clean coal;
(8) call for the practicalities of nuclear power to be examined;
(9) call for the speeding up of uranium exports and for open slather on new nuke mines.
The anti-gg will hail this as practical, visionary and not damaging to Australian interests because they are on the do nothing bandwagon.
Diogenes I agree with your post at #112.
Hey JoM, did you and ron have the same english teacher at school?
At least ron makes valid points in his posts instead of just putting contrary positions forward hoping to get a bite.
re. 105
From the pages of discussion I’ve seen on a couple of aviation forums (fora? 🙂 ) about QF30, there is a bit of a difference between QF30 and and the plane that crashed in Florida – in the Florida crash, the Oxy bottles were cargo. I think a leak caused the hold to fill with oxygen, inevitably resulting in a fire (& crash).
In QF30’s case, the oxy bottle was ‘part’ the plane (the pilots emergency supply I believe), and there was no fire. So I suppose it could be considered a ‘unique’ event.
A very professional crew, and a large slice of luck was involved in getting the plane down safely. If the bottle remained stuck in the hold leaking O2, the build up of O2 could have caused a fire in the hold, & the bottle itself missed anything vital as it was either propelled or fell out of the plane. And finally, the pilots were lucky there was another bottle of O2 still working, otherwise hypoxia would have set in fairly quickly, and QF30 might have ended up like the depressurised Cypriot Air (I think?) flight of a few years ago.
Still, I flew with Qantas twice this weekend, and felt safe (despite my fear of flying). You’ve got much better odds of winning the lottery.
cheers,
PS, Back to politics, it looks like Possum has an analysis of last nights Newspoll up (if its not already been mentioned).
Scorpio surely my English isn’t that bad? 😉
Vlid points as seen through your eyes.
114 Boerwar
If you look at the list of voters the LNP don’t want to annoy, they are almost all Libs rather than Nats. Lots of farmers believe in doing something about CC, esp as it gives credence to their complaints about how the weather is increasingly causing farms to become unprofitable and need subsidies.
No-one points this out but I think the Nats and Libs are going to have problems maintaining a united front on CC/ ETS.
(I should also point out that nuclear fission should be on the table, although fusion is much better. The fourth generation nuclear fission reactors deplete the uranium to much smaller quantities of a less dangerous product than the third generation reactors.)
‘waisting’, ‘preffered’. ‘Ministerr’. All in one post, 111.
I’m sure you can do better!
Diogenes,
As one who promulgates scientific method, have you any evidence to back up your assertions of 112. Or is it some sort of religious belief system?
Finns @ 113, that Gallup poll was a poll done for USA Today and had a sample size of 791 people. The Gallup tracking poll which has been telling the story throughout the whole year has Obama at +8 at the moment.
Oops, guilty as charged Scorpio, I will do better. 🙂
I agree with Diogenes lets go nuclear.
This idea that people onlt tell you what you want to hear in polls is all well and good but it doesn’t explain away the significantly high numbers for this poll on CC. It also doesn’t explain away Rudd’s continuing high support. The “polled” may well give the “politically correct” answers on CC (I’m not comvinced) but on who they’ll vote for? Surely if they didn’t “really” like Rudd’s stance on CC this would show up in Labor’s vote.
119 “No-one points this out but I think the Nats and Libs are going to have problems maintaining a united front on CC/ ETS.”
Diogenes, I think there will be the odd lone wolf but overall they will be comfortable just cruising along and then blaming Nelson when the kick against them comes. We never saw any major revolt against detention of immigrants or workchoices so why will this generate any more excitement?
They will just slink away into another election loss without knowing what the problem is, even though people have explained it to them on a daily basis. The worst possible thing in opposition is to do nothing and not have viable policies should the tide turn.
Gotta agree with the GG (121) on this one, Diogenes, you gonna need some good evidence of that claim, at least in relation to climate change, because it is a very different issue from standard politics and the normal rules do not necessarily apply. I think those numbers from the Newspoll are actually fairly accurate and reflect a strong and legitimate concern among the populace.
The Finnigans Says: @ 113,
{There is even a new Gallup poll today that says McCain is 4% infront of Obama. interesting.}
Although it’s OT, the Oz has a different spin on it.
{BARACK Obama has opened upa nine-point poll lead over Republican rival John McCain following the Democrat’s adulation-soaked overseas tour – his biggest margin since Gallup began tracking the general election in March.
A Gallup poll released yesterday shows Senator Obama now leads Senator McCain among national registered voters by 49per cent to 40 per cent. }
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24092256-2703,00.html
[I agree with Diogenes lets go nuclear.]
Got to be kidding. Cost blowouts and delays all over the world on nuclear plants atm. Would take forever to get even one plant running.
GG and Just Me
The scientific method is to form a hypothesis and then test it using evidence. At this stage, it’s just a hypothesis based on previous studies which show that there are often differences between what voters tell a pollster and how they end up voting. There are good psychological reasons for putting up such a hypothesis.
At this stage, my hypothesis has neither been refuted or verified. My post didn’t say it would definitely happen.
Thank you for this opportunity to clarify this matter. 😉
Dario
I don’t think nuclear is the best option for Oz (geothermal is IMHO).
Nuclear may well be more cost-effective in countries which do not have the natural resources for solar, hydro, geothermal, wind or, dare I say it, clean coal.
Diogenes
At this stage, it’s just a hypothesis based on previous studies which show that there are often differences between what voters tell a pollster and how they end up voting. There are good psychological reasons for putting up such a hypothesis.
Yes, and no. Evidence about voter behaviour on one issue does not necessarily reliably carry over to another. Like I said, I think climate change is in a different category from, say, opinions on refugees, or tax breaks, etc.
At this stage, my hypothesis has neither been refuted or verified. My post didn’t say it would definitely happen.
So it might happen, or it might not. Not much of an hypothesis. Bit too vague and too much wiggle room. Need a more definitive prediction than that for it to be a testable scientific hypothesis. Problem is how do we refute/verify your hypothesis? Well, on the refutation side, if the voters decisively choose Labor again next time (when CC will almost certainly be a major and possibly THE election issue, especially if we go to a DD over it), then that would give good support to my opposing hypothesis (that CC is different from other issues and there is much less gap than usual between what the public say in opinion polls and what they vote for in the privacy of the ballot box).
Just an hypothesis. 😉
Looks like Julie Bishop wants to broaden the GW debate a bit and take the focus off the Libs divisions on the issue.
{DEPUTY Opposition leader Julie Bishop moved today to reopen the debate on nuclear energy.
“Currently, nuclear power is the only proven technology capable of delivering low emission reliable baseload power 24 hours per day,” Ms Bishop writes on a Fairfax website.
“The issue of nuclear power has to be debated rationally if Australia is serious about making deep cuts to its greenhouse gas emissions.”
Her comments will tighten tensions in the Coalition as the shadow ministry meets in Canberra to determine its position on emissions trading ahead of a full partyroom meeting tomorrow.
In February, Opposition leader Brendan Nelson declared: “There will be no nuclear power industry in Australia unless Mr Rudd has some sort of secret plan for it.”
Dr Nelson said then: “We certainly have no plans for, nor do we envisage, Australia having a nuclear power industry at any time in the future.”
Ms Bishop says today that if Australia is to position itself well for a future of low emission energy, “the nation must engage in a coherent debate about the nuclear option”.}
Although I have absolutely no idea where she gets this from?
{“In pursuing alternative forms of energy, there has already been considerable investment in wind generation and a lesser investment in solar generation,” she writes.}
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24095650-601,00.html
Here’s a good post by “Aussie Bob of Sydney” at Tim Dunlop’s site.
{
LOL… reading today’s Newspoll “analysis” by Dennis Shanahan would have you believe that it was solely a poll on Costello versus Nelson/Turnbull… with a small sidebar on Labor leading the Coalition by a country mile.
Talk about “Hope springs eternal”! Shanahan even concludes that there is a reasonable chance that Nelson (Nelson!) can turn around overwhelming community concern about Global Warming and convert us all into greedy, me-tooing GW sceptics.
I suppose when Dennis gets all those little pieces of paper spread out on his office desk (the ones with the lines and arrows joining them together) it looks feasible.
The only problem is it needs Smirky to grow a backbone, which from history is an almost impossible step in his evolution from coward to man.}
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/some_polling_analysis_and_the_environment/#commentsmore
Just Me
A DD on the issue would be an excellent way to test the hypothesis. If polling says Labor will win easily with CC/ETS as the main issue and then there is a significant difference in what actually happens on election day, my hypothesis will then become a theory with good evidence to support it.
If the Libs get creamed on a DD CC election, my hypothesis will be consigned to the dust-bin, and I’ll be forced to eat some humble pie, which I’m sure GG will force-feed me.
Diogenes
I think you are right about nuclear for some nations. Finland went for a fifth reactor precisely for the reasons you say – if you factor in environmental costs and energy security it becomes cost competitive, provided it is done to high safety standards (which theirs are.) They have no coal or gas to speak of, so illustrate your logic exactly.
That being said, the more I read about geothermal prospects here, I think that plus wind is the lond term solution for SA and Oz generally.
Roy Orbison @ 107 –
It has happened before. There is a DC 9 in about one million bits at the bottom of the Everglades
Nope. Totally different. The QANTAS oxygen cylinder is a thick walled container which stored liquid oxygen – basically the same as a scuba tank or LPG cylinder.
The Valujet crash was caused by chemical oxygen generators – small metal cans containing chemicals which react together to produce oxygen when a pin is pulled. They didn’t rupture but started making oxygen and a lot of heat when pins became dislodged because they were packed without their protective covers. This triggered a fire in the cargo hold which then engulfed the main cabin and quickly destroyed enough of the plane to bring it down.
While I’m at it, that idiot Malcolm Colless has written this in his column today:
… no doubt hoping that his readers were either too young or too old to remember why John Hewson lost that election.
It wasn’t that fightback! was weak on etail. It’s that it was mind-numbingly complex on details.
But what the hell… any port in a storm for the Rudd Bashers.
# 107 Roy Orbison wrote :
“On another note, a friend of mine who flies in high circles (pun intended) met the Qantas CEO at a bank function said he had never met anyone who had a such an intense dislike for other humans. Strong stuff, and from someone not prone to describing people like that.”
Thats the way he comes across to me as well.
For what its worth just saw the following, looks like someone sucking up :
“Try as you might, Geoff Dixon is a difficult person not to like.
Warm, affable and self-deprecating, he’s the sort of bloke men admire and women love.”
http://business.smh.com.au/business/private-equity-bid-comes-back-to-bite-dixon-20080728-3m94.html
A DD on the issue would be an excellent way to test the hypothesis.
Certainly the best test we have available.
But I do not think the opposition would be stupid enough to risk a DD in the face of those consistently high poll numbers in favour of the government’s (general) stance on this issue. The best they can do is pick at details and any inconsistencies to try to get the government to make minor modifications, which the opposition can then trumpet as major concessions and victories for ‘common sense’ and ‘good governance’. Assuming, of course, that the government gives them the opportunity.
John of Melbourne 113 Says:
If I’m the minority in relation to climate change then why are you waisting your time with me Ron?
Diogenes 114 Says:
ron and JoM
“I wouldn’t be quite as enthused with the Newspoll results on CC as ron is. ”
JoM , to convert you Here you ar a self proclaimed scientiist AND qualified engineer to boot , your years of Uni study learning the fountains of knowledge and it all has come to this for you , a barbarian leading you to th light , th CC
After you i’ll go after Bolt
“Labor going soft on borders: Coalition”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24095788-601,00.html
“Today’s announcement by the Rudd Labor Government of a more relaxed immigration detention system has the potential to result in hundreds of unlawful non-citizens disappearing into the community,”
Do the Fibs really want to fight this? They already lost. Seems to me they would be better shutting up.
ruawake, it be the newer brighter workchoices tomorrow just for something different.
Bravo Steve 144, you have summed it up exactly.
Or maybe they will decide to be takenover by the National Party that always seems to lift their spirits and be the source of much celebration.
http://nationalstakeover.com/
Very true. The ValuJet crash was caused by the illegal loading of three chemical oxygen generation devices in the hold with the consequences as noted above. Hardly similar to the Qantas situation.
Amen.
Not sure the bottle was in the hold as such but a pure oxygen environment in an equipment bay can be really bad news. (See Apollo 13).
Helios Airways Flight 522 – there are lots of other examples too.
As for the Qantas incident, I’ve been told these bottles are for backup only and the pilots correctly put the plane into a rapid dive down to below 3,000m where oxygen is not required. Worst case, the plane’s auto recovery system would have pulled them out of the dive in time for the crew to recover. But, yes, a tricky situation luckily avoided.
Diogenoski 114 Says:
“ron and JoM I wouldn’t be quite as enthused with the Newspoll results on CC as ron is. ”
Newspoll had 4 CC polls , Horatio 14% PPM , believe earth is NOT warming 12% , believe man has NOT caused any CC 3% , do NOT believe in any ETS 11%
And after seeing th above , you can say without a key stroke smile to see “I wouldn’t be quite as enthused as Ron ” ?
I am very yes , naturally zero %’s would hav been better on all of them Although i might add the “believe man has NOT caused any CC at 3% , well that 3% IS within the MOE potentialy making it a 0%
Politicaly these polls are ‘CCabulous’ , because threre is so much pro CC sentiment ‘fat’ there in this Newspoll in % terms , better than one could hav hoped as a defense for th ineviteble negative CC campaign that will come And where did you get that ‘Bradley factor ‘ term from Bradley factor refferred to US black Candidates not to ‘oz’ “black coal” liberal candidates
Sorry mayo – overlooked your 138.
Oh dear Brenda announces his new policy on an ETS – except its the same.
I guess he just got “turn-hunted”. 😛